TEA Attendance Report Now due June 3rd

[Donald Razorduck]

Thats where we will have to agree to disagree I guess. A person at Universal is NOT a person not at Disney. This is proven by the fact that Disney is still making way more money. I just don't see it that way. I really do think that the increases at Universal are mostly due to add-ons to Disney vacations, NOT substitutions.

And no, I dont think Disney is worried, the competition is worried. They're thinking "oh ****", no matter what we do Disney will always come out on top. Disney has no reason to worry, they're doing fine no matter what. It's the guys who can't stop them that should be getting nervous. IMO...

We recently did a Disney exclusive trip in Feb. 5 days, we snuck out to do Legoland for half a day as the kids are at the threshold of outgrowing it completely and i'm coaster credit ho. That said,we regret not getting to Universal. Our trips to DisneyWorld were when youngest was five and this trip he was 10. We did a weekend trip to Disneyland and DCA in between. That's over now, we are already planning on late 2017 for Orlando. There's not a day for Disney in the Mix and I'm sure it will be five full days in town. It's all about Uni and likely SeaWorld and Busch as the kids will be 15 and 13. Not one thing at WDW will likely be new and appeal to them.

Now, I love Disney. I think Animal Kingdom is my favorite park

 

[PhotoDave219]

This thread needs another chart.

Here's the 13 v 14 Crowd Distribution for Hollywood studios. Simple number of days the park reached a particular crowd level.

Obviously, the busiest days is all the way to the right.

(For those confused as to what way right is, it is that way ------> )

 

[1023]

In 2016 the new Frozen ride will open at Epcot, followed by an expanded meet and greet presence for Elsa and Anna at the Norway pavilion.

Please realize that the only "New" thing here is the themeing and a wasted attraction/showcase pad.

By 2016 there will be a third theater for Soarin' in Epcot and (hopefully) a new Soarin' film experience.

Again, same attraction with more capacity and a newer film in a few years.

In 2016 construction at Disney Springs is scheduled to be completed.

Hmmmm... I see this Disney Springs thing brought up all the time. It's an outdoor mall and they are expanding it. It's not a theme park or attraction in that sense. Not sure why anyone would add this to the theme park discussion unless it's an excuse for slow theme park attraction development. (Not a good one either, considering how fast they built all of EPCOT Center.)

In 2016 the new Rivers of Light show is scheduled to open at Animal Kingdom leading to later hours.

I hope this is as good as the original World of Color. I am not sure how excited I am about a show that is available once or twice a day vs. an actual attraction available all throughout the day, but to each their own.

In 2016 the new Shanghai Disneyland will open, and TDO will begin to receive return on their investment. New money will be available for future investments.

Money is not really an issue for TWDC. It's how they choose to spend it and on what time table. Based on their CAPEX concern, it could be argued that they will further drag their feet after the enormous hit Shanghai is making on said CAPEX.

In 2017 Avatar Land will open at Animal Kingdom.

This will be great to actual "New" attractions and a themed environmental experience with food and shops. We only have to wait 2 years and 4 months more.

By 2017 plans should be solidified (and perhaps construction begun) on a Star Wars land at DHS, and (if rumors are correct) an expanded Pixar presence. Although 2021 has often been cited as the completion date for these rumored projects, perhaps the DHS expansion will open in phases (just like New Fantasyland and the transformation from Downtown Disney to Disney Springs.

I love the speculation here. I hope this is true. 2021 is quite far away and that puts 5 years between the last 2 "new" attractions and new ones. TSPL is a scourge I would choose not to have visited upon us. A bunch of Carnival rides in any Disney Park is shameful, plus for that experience just go to Dinoland at AK.

My biggest takeaway from the attendance numbers I saw was the chart showing steady to increasing growth in attendance at Disney parks following the decline in the 2001 - 2003 (post 9/11 attack). Even the recession in 2008/09 barely had an impact on attendance at Disney.

Those numbers could always be better for Disney. They wasted an opportunity for expansion during the recession and it shows in anemic gains. Comcast didn't squander that time and took advantage of an economic opportunity to add capacity in both parks and resort space.

The numbers are misleading in many ways. As we know, more people are traveling to central Florida for themed entertainment. If the trend continues, either or both of Universal's offerings could surpass DHS in attendance before StarWarsLand is half completed.

*1023*

 

[khale1970]

The key point lost on Disney pixie dusters and Universal homers? (we need a name them)...

The name you're look looking for is "wand strokers." But that's just because @Disneyhead'71 wouldn't sell the rights to his screen name.

 

[1023]

I thought that the Marvel additions -- if they happen -- would be in the Hollywoodland area where Monsters Inc/Muppetvision currently is.

I was just responding to the sight lines observation of the other poster. If that is the case, (Muppets is dusted) then you have room for 3 or 4 decent size attraction buildings. I suspect though 2 attractions, a store, a huge M&G, and QS restaurant from the current Algonquin roundtable running things now.

If anyone has some real info on this, I'd love to see it.

*1023*

 

[PhotoDave219]

Please realize that the only "New" thing here is the themeing and a wasted attraction/showcase pad.



Again, same attraction with more capacity and a newer film in a few years.



Hmmmm... I see this Disney Springs thing brought up all the time. It's an outdoor mall and they are expanding it. It's not a theme park or attraction in that sense. Not sure why anyone would add this to the theme park discussion unless it's an excuse for slow theme park attraction development. (Not a good one either, considering how fast they built all of EPCOT Center.)



I hope this is as good as the original World of Color. I am not sure how excited I am about a show that is available once or twice a day vs. an actual attraction available all throughout the day, but to each their own.



Money is not really an issue for TWDC. It's how they choose to spend it and on what time table. Based on their CAPEX concern, it could be argued that they will further drag their feet after the enormous hit Shanghai is making on said CAPEX.



This will be great to actual "New" attractions and a themed environmental experience with food and shops. We only have to wait 2 years and 4 months more.



I love the speculation here. I hope this is true. 2021 is quite far away and that puts 5 years between the last 2 "new" attractions and new ones. TSPL is a scourge I would choose not to have visited upon us. A bunch of Carnival rides in any Disney Park is shameful, plus for that experience just go to Dinoland at AK.



Those numbers could always be better for Disney. They wasted an opportunity for expansion during the recession and it shows in anemic gains. Comcast didn't squander that time and took advantage of an economic opportunity to add capacity in both parks and resort space.

The numbers are misleading in many ways. As we know, more people are traveling to central Florida for themed entertainment. If the trend continues, either or both of Universal's offerings could surpass DHS in attendance before StarWarsLand is half completed.

*1023*

IOA got a huge one time boost from HP. They didnt match the growth the next year but have a nice solid level and showed some modest gains the next year. I forsee the same thing happening with USF. They'll probably show 5% gains next year.

The key is just getting people to Orlando. They're likely going to go to both parks. And whats good for Universal is good for the area as a whole.

 

[1023]

IOA got a huge one time boost from HP. They didnt match the growth the next year but have a nice solid level and showed some modest gains the next year. I forsee the same thing happening with USF. They'll probably show 5% gains next year.

The key is just getting people to Orlando. They're likely going to go to both parks. And whats good for Universal is good for the area as a whole.

Well said and very true. Disney got no money on my last Florida visit. Uni and the space coast love me now.

*1023*

 

[PhotoDave219]

Well said and very true. Disney got no money on my last Florida visit. Uni and the space coast love me now.

*1023*

And people that go to Universal are helping give Disney revenue because of the licensing agreement.

The Mouse gets everyone's money. Always.

 

[1023]

And people that go to Universal are helping give Disney revenue because of the licensing agreement.

The Mouse gets everyone's money. Always.

Yup... The mouse is like the Mafia and my Uncle Bob is the Don of all Don's....

*1023*

(or maybe it's the IRS...)

 

[Mike S]

Star Wars.....

Not before 2020. Meanwhile Universal will have Kong, Volcano Bay, Fast & Furious, Nintendo, and likely Marvel open as well before that time. Keep trying though buddy, I'm having a great laugh.

Transformers is a B level Spiderman knockoff. I love The Simpsons, but The Simpsons land screams cheap to me every time I visit. The food court is cool, the food itself is weak. Diagon Alley is well done, Gringotts not as much.

Universal's best period of new attractions for me was the late 90's with Men In Black and IOA. Nothing touches that.

 

[PhotoDave219]

Not before 2020. Meanwhile Universal will have Kong, Volcano Bay, Fast & Furious, Nintendo, and likely Marvel open as well before that time. Keep trying though buddy, I'm having a great laugh.

And disney gets a financial cut, right? Let them go to Universal and buy all those marvel souvenirs.... Disney gets a cut.

 

[Mike S]

And disney gets a financial cut, right? Let them go to Universal and buy all those marvel souvenirs.... Disney gets a cut.

Of course, but Uni still makes serious bank on it. Isn't the deal for much lower than the actual worth of Marvel right now because of when it was signed?

 

[PhotoDave219]

Of course, but Uni still makes serious bank on it. Isn't the deal for much lower than the actual worth of Marvel right now because of when it was signed?

Doesn't matter to the bean counters: Revenue is what's important. Revenue is the ONLY thing that is important.

And the Uni deal? That's revenue.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

This is going to come out in a way I don't mean...but have you ever worked for a corporation?

Every dime someone else makes in the same field is a dime you could have made. That's the mentality.

And when you look at the numbers I posted above - EP, DHS, and AK have pretty much stayed stagnant over the past six years. No one can be happy about that. MK is flying high, no doubt - but the other parks are just treading water in admissions.

Again, it won't be enough to get them to do anything about it, but they aren't popping champagne corks over this, either.

I don't think that business logic applies to tourism. As long as the number of tourists is increasing and everyone is making more money everyone is winning. I live in Vegas and if someone builds a new $5 Billion hotel next door and we end up getting a 10% boost in revenue without spending a dime I guarantee our CEO and shareholders don't care what the new hotel made. They may look at the numbers to determine if an expansion is necessary but because tourism requires such massive investments and usually has a fairly lengthy ROI your neighbors spending money can be a very good thing simply because you get the overflow. This is how I view Orlando and the Disney vs Universal "war". It's not a war, they both benefit from each others existence. Universal has increased visitation by 5 million over the last 5 years but they've probably spent $5 Billion to do it. Disney has increased visitation by 2 million over the last 5 years and has spent virtually nothing to do it. Both win and both benefit every time the other invests. When Disney starts expanding again Universal will benefit from it. Orlando and Vegas are very similar, any investment is good for the town as a whole.

 

[lazyboy97o]

No but both Universal and Disney are global partners with TEA.

AECOM Economics does the number crunching, not the TEA.

Sure - IOA was 5.4M.

FYI, if anyone wants to pull reports - just google for "TEA theme park pdf 20XX" and they pop right up. It's really fascinating.

The reports should also be on the AECOM Economics and TEA. The pre-2007 reports done for Amusement Business may not be so easy to find.

Versus any of these-

Just because Disney likes to call everything concept art doesn't mean everything is actually concept art. Night renderings also hide a lot and look more exciting due to lighting tricks.

In short, this report isn't just put together as a fun popularity contest - I mean, heck, think how easily those numbers could be manipulated if they really counted every turnstyle turn at every park. It's meant to give a somewhat accurate way to project revenues, based on paid admissions.

I don't even think it is supposed to be a way to project revenue. It's more an easy way to see where the industry is headed. More visitation just means a better chance of more projects as there are cycles of whether people are broadly interested in various forms of themed entertainment. The TEA is more about the designers than the operators.

 

[WDW1974]

The simple fact that TDL is not #1 when the OLC releases their *actual* attendance numbers using the first-click methodology means that the reverse-engineered numbers for the other parks are using different and/or flawed methodologies.

MK may see more unique guests due to park hopping over the course of the day, but there are not more bodies in the park at any given moment than there are in TDL.

I have skimmed the thread all day (had little better to do while stuck in an ER -- I love America and the world's best healthcare system -- if you're simply dumb!) and this post was the most ... meaningful to me.

I don't need all the Disney vs. UNI crap that inevitably comes out. Or the discussions on Nintendo and Pandora ... gee, I'm sounding like some folks who post on my thread yet have no interest in the topic, just the personalites. I do have interest in this one, though.

And I can only say you nailed it, Tom. But people will largely ignore because people don't go to TDL, they go to Dizzy World.

As I'll put on my thread, the numbers are really not so meaningful because they mean different things in different places. TDL absolutely outdraws the MK in terms of people in the park at any given time. MK has, even now, maybe 10-15 days a year when it is legitimately as crowded as TDL is on an AVERAGE day -- ALL day.

Now, I've often said that Disney plays with its numbers and MK will always be No. 1 (at least until the Commies order Disney to make SDL No. 1), but I don't really see how that it is. I know that it has to be related to the way Disney is counting admission clicks in O-Town (where park-hopping is much more prevalent) because as crazy as MK has become it isn't having 55,000 in-park every day of the year at ONE time. It just isn't. Now, over the course of a day? That may be a different story.

But then you're not comparing apples to apples, are you?

It's much like taking DLP's numbers and comparing them to Europa Park. Disney wins almost 2-to-1, but one park isn't open for almost half the year.

Look at the water park numbers. The No. 1 water park is China's Chimelong in Guangzhou, but they are (when last I checked) only open five months a year. Then you have a park like Typhoon Lagoon that's open usually about nine months. Other parks (like many indoor ones) are open year round.

I guess what I am saying is there's a lot of measuring contests going on with different kinds of rulers!

More on the numbers on my thread ... when I finish talking with a VIP in Germany!

 

[me_stitch]

I am a huge Disney fan but I was surprised to see they hold the top 6 spots for attendance, that's just crazy. Universal comes in behind Epcot, AK, and HS? I guess their gaining but they still have a long way to go.

 

[me_stitch]

It's bizarre that you would feel bad for people who are choosing to do something they want to do based on their own, individual, personal preferences.

this person must not have kids, people seem to forget that the majority of people visiting the parks are families, not just ride junkies hopping around the parks.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

Where did I say it was bad? I think you are confusing providing context with opinion.

A healthy Universal is good for us as theme park goers. The statement that they are still making up ground and it should be a tighter race than it is right now stands though. That's not really an opinion. It's based on historical attendance numbers. If you want to attribute it to Blackstone I agree 100% with you, but the root cause doesn't change the current status.

No argument there. The current status is Universal has gained market share for 5 years straight. The fact they started this run at under 5M isn't relevant at this point. What is relevant is they had a park crack the top 5 worldwide and USF and IOA are sitting poised at 11 and 12.

 

[PhotoDave219]

No argument there. The current status is Universal has gained market share for 5 years straight. The fact they started this run at under 5M isn't relevant at this point. What is relevant is they had a park crack the top 5 worldwide and USF and IOA are sitting poised at 11 and 12.

And they Started this run the minute they got bought by Comcast. Imagine where they could be if Blackstone hadn't let them rot in the mid 2000s?

Given Steve Burke's history with Disney .....

Spoiler

Its Pretty Ugly

It comes as no surprise that he's going to invest heavy in the Orlando Parks and come gunning for the Mouse.

Know who wins? Theme Park Fans.


Know who loses? People like me who want their darn Star Wars Land and are stuck waiting. And Waiting. And Waiting.