TEA Attendance Report Now due June 3rd

[mahnamahna101]

Transformers is a B level Spiderman knockoff. I love The Simpsons, but The Simpsons land screams cheap to me every time I visit. The food court is cool, the food itself is weak. Diagon Alley is well done, Gringotts not as much.

Universal's best period of new attractions for me was the late 90's with Men In Black and IOA. Nothing touches that.

Kong...

With your opinion on Springfield, do you view DinoRama and TSPL in the same light? Both lack a D/E like Simpsons Ride, so they're definitely inferior.

Transformers replaced a desolate soundstage. Springfield replaced a dated, empty, bland 1980s esque food court and some dead space along the lagoon. Would you prefer either of those?

IOA has plenty of mediocre attractions - Doom, Dudley, Discovery Center, Pteranodon Flyers, Sinbad, Poseidon's Fury (current version), Seuss Trolley, Cat (without the spinning). It's not all sunshine and rainbows.
There's plenty of areas in that park that are clearly below Gringotts and Transformers in quality.

Simpsons in Universal Hollywood has more elaborate facades. Same with their Despicable Me area.

 

[mahnamahna101]

What if Star Wars Land opens in 5 years? Then what?

That's the thing... insiders here and at OU are saying 2020 at the earliest. So 6 years from the numbers posted today. 2021/2022 is more likely to give WDW something big for its 50th. So potentially 7-8 years.

TSPL and possibly a Fantasyland-style dark ride for Cars are all I could see happening by 2019.

 

[Travel Junkie]

The key point lost on Disney pixie dusters and Universal homers? (we need a name them) is that Disney fans shouldn’t be dancing in the streets an gloating because the momentum is clearly is Universal’s direction. Uni fans shouldn’t completely dismiss the numbers since none of the Orlando parks overtook any of the stateside Disney parks because again they have the momentum.

Disney’s goal at WDW has been to keep their customers on property from wheels down to wheels up. The numbers are proving that strategy to be failing. They are not keeping most of their guests on property for the duration of their trip. The dam has sprung a leak and it started with a trickle but is slowly growing.

People say Potter was Uni’s best punch and they have nothing left. Not true. This trip families spent 1-2 days at Universal, but what about next trip? Do they decide to spend 3-4 days next trip and 1-2 days at Disney and eventually cut out Disney entirely? Kong, Nintendo and more offer enticement to spend that extra time between the same old Disney or the new Universal. Only time will tell, but for the first time in Central Florida people are actually having this conversation and that should scare Disney to death. Uni has now become an essential stop for the majority of folks that visit Orlando.

This is a good day for Universal and a worrisome one of Disney.

 

[rioriz]

Kong...

With your opinion on Springfield, do you view DinoRama and TSPL in the same light? Both lack a D/E like Simpsons Ride, so they're definitely inferior.

Transformers replaced a desolate soundstage. Springfield replaced a dated, empty, bland 1980s esque food court and some dead space along the lagoon. Would you prefer either of those?

IOA has plenty of mediocre attractions - Doom, Dudley, Discovery Center, Pteranodon Flyers, Sinbad, Poseidon's Fury (current version), Seuss Trolley, Cat (without the spinning). It's not all sunshine and rainbows.
There's plenty of areas in that park that are clearly below Gringotts and Transformers in quality.

Simpsons in Universal Hollywood has more elaborate facades. Same with their Despicable Me area.

Not the poster it was geared towards but I'll bite...

I view Simpsons same as Dinorama for sure. Bright cartoonish facades that will cheapen out over time and be replaced in time. The mistake Universal made was creating the land to be just as it were in the cartoon. The one area Disney has had more success in the past and present is taking the cartoonish and creating real world likeness. I wish Springfield would have had more age, rustic, rest world feel to it. Yes they did a great job of recreating it in a cartoonish way, but I prefer the NFL look overall.

And yes I see Hollywood as slightly improved....

 

[AEfx]

The key point lost on Disney pixie dusters and Universal homers? (we need a name them) is that Disney fans shouldn’t be dancing in the streets an gloating because the momentum is clearly is Universal’s direction. Uni fans shouldn’t completely dismiss the numbers since none of the Orlando parks overtook any of the stateside Disney parks because again they have the momentum.

Absolutely agree with your post - the only thing I'd mention is that almost no one talking in this thread is a "Universal homer" or "lover" or anything.

If we were, we'd be at (insert name of Universal website because I don't know any because I don't go to them).

We WANT Disney to do well - we WANT Disney to build amazing stuff. But...they aren't. The evidence is mounting.

What you are seeing is theme park fans, who once were unquestionably satisfied with Disney and couldn't even conceive that someone else could come into Orlando and give Disney any heat at all or offer the same or better world class experiences. Disney always had the top product, the best of the best. Without exception.

Now...that's not necessarily the case.

I understand that several people will reply to it and say "they still are the best to me!" and that's great. Happy you are satisfied. I feel the experience is dwindling considerably, to mediocre at best. And these numbers show the tide is ch-ch-changing.

People are bringing up what true Universal fanboys said in years past - not what folks like I were saying, which was to laugh at anyone who thought what has happened today would ever happen. It has. We were wrong. Now you have serious people who watch these numbers (not myself, I'm not even an amateur) talking about how very real the possibility of some of the Uni parks taking over attendance levels at some Disney parks. Not mindless fanboys, but people who fought against this truth for years.

We aren't folks who have been championing Universal since pre-Potter. Those are the folks they are making fun of. We are the folks that are absolutely BLOWN AWAY that it's gotten this close, and that unless something drastic happens (and we REALLY WANT IT TO!) the already unthinkable that is happening is going to become simply unavoidable.

 

[GrandRoyale]

Actually, according to the rough and dirty numbers I just ran from the reports (not sure who is saying they are bogus, it's the most accurate data we have access to regarding paid admissions):

From 2009 to 2014 the market in Orlando is up 14.35% (rounding the attendance of the 7 Orlando theme parks to the nearest 100K, including Sea World). That means 14.35% more admission tickets were sold in 2014 than in 2009.

From 2009 to 2014, Universal's attendance has grown 62.38%.

From 2009 to 2014, Disney's attendance has grown 8.21%.

It's pretty clear that Universal has taken the lion's share of the increased Orlando market.

Ok, but you're still missing the point. Percentages don't mean anything. They change based on the size of what you're comparing. If Universal is 100 people and Disney is 1,000, their growth is 62.38 people while Disney's is 82.1. Still bigger. You see?

The Orlando growth is irrelevant because, again, what numbers are you using to arrive at that percentage? Did all of Orlando's tourists go to a theme park? Was it Disney or Universal? Was it both? Percentages will only give you an idea...to ACTUALLY determine if one's market share is shrinking or growing, you need actual numbers. Until Disney sees a decrease in occupancy, attendance, etc. and Universal sees an increase that matches them (and remember that if Universal brings in the same amount of new guests next year, their percentage will still show up as less than 17%) then you can't assume that they're growing parallel to the overall market.

Basically...percentages aren't that helpful.

 

[Andrew C]

We WANT Disney to do well - we WANT Disney to build amazing stuff. But...they aren't. The evidence is mounting.

May want to hold that thought until we find out what is announced for DHS.

Your post assumes Disney will do nothing in the next 5 or 6 years. Would you rather them announce something now and then wait 1000 years for it to open like AvatarLand?

 

[doctornick]

The key point lost on Disney pixie dusters and Universal homers? (we need a name them)

"Wand strokers" seems to be the common pejorative.

 

[PhotoDave219]

May want to hold that thought until we find out what is announced for DHS.

Your post assumes Disney will do nothing in the next 5 or 6 years. Would you rather them announce something now and then wait 1000 years for it to open like AvatarLand?

I dont forsee anything opening before Avatar in 2017. I would not expect anything opening at the Studios before 2021 at this point.

 

[Andrew C]

I dont forsee anything opening before Avatar in 2017. I would not expect anything opening at the Studios before 2021 at this point.

That is why I said 5 or 6 years, instead of 2 or 3, haha. Your numbers are the ones I have been seeing around here for quite some time so I am now getting used to this slow timetable unfortunately.

 

[Crazydisneyfanluke]

It is depressing to hear my favorite park, SW Orlando, has a "declining" attendance. The park is well themed and is a family based park. Every time im asked what is the best theme park in Orlando is, I say for the family its SW, for the thrill seekers is Universal.

I hope that people look past the negativity placed on SW and go to their parks to see what it truly is about.

 

[doctornick]

Absolutely agree with your post - the only thing I'd mention is that almost no one talking in this thread is a "Universal homer" or "lover" or anything.

If we were, we'd be at (insert name of Universal website because I don't know any because I don't go to them).

Well, @Disneyhead'71 has posted on this thread.....

 

[El Grupo]

No one is saying ALL of WDW. Just Hollywood Studios. In 6 years, the odds of DHS still being ahead of both Universal Orlando parks is low. That would require DHS to add over a million visitors in spite of 3-4 more closed attractions and a lack of a new ride since 2008.

USF and IOA being around 11 million in 6 years is far more likely than Hollywood Studios' getting 11 million+ visitors without any new additions. TSPL and SWL aren't supposed to open until 2020/2021. Therefore, the odds of perpetual increase with nothing new, but plenty subtracted over the next 5 years is pretty low.

AK won't be caught. Certainly not until 2025 at the very earliest. Epcot will likely never get caught, especially if TDO invests in an overhaul for Future World or a new country for World Showcase. MK is untouchable. Neither IOA nor USF have the capacity necessary to fit 18-22m guests annually in each park.

But HS and even AK aren't just loony speculation. HS is very plausible, while AK is an outside shot (10-15 years down the line).

And that's more than enough for Universal to be successful.

I agree that, if DHS has no major additions open before 2020, future annual attendance for that park will not only be stagnant, but most likely decrease by then. However, I'm curious where has it been said that TSPL and SWL (or, potentially, any other new attractions) aren't supposed to open for 5+ years? The last I read, it sounded like a budget equal to or greater than the amount spent at DCA was expected for a redo of DHS with changes supposedly coming in stages, again like DCA. Have things changed?

 

[OvertheHorizon]

In 2016 the new Frozen ride will open at Epcot, followed by an expanded meet and greet presence for Elsa and Anna at the Norway pavilion.

By 2016 there will be a third theater for Soarin' in Epcot and (hopefully) a new Soarin' film experience.

In 2016 construction at Disney Springs is scheduled to be completed.

In 2016 the new Rivers of Light show is scheduled to open at Animal Kingdom leading to later hours.

In 2016 the new Shanghai Disneyland will open, and TDO will begin to receive return on their investment. New money will be available for future investments.

In 2017 Avatar Land will open at Animal Kingdom.

By 2017 plans should be solidified (and perhaps construction begun) on a Star Wars land at DHS, and (if rumors are correct) an expanded Pixar presence. Although 2021 has often been cited as the completion date for these rumored projects, perhaps the DHS expansion will open in phases (just like New Fantasyland and the transformation from Downtown Disney to Disney Springs.

My biggest takeaway from the attendance numbers I saw was the chart showing steady to increasing growth in attendance at Disney parks following the decline in the 2001 - 2003 (post 9/11 attack). Even the recession in 2008/09 barely had an impact on attendance at Disney.

 

[doctornick]

I agree that, if DHS has no major additions open before 2020, future annual attendance for that park will not only be stagnant, but most likely decrease by then. However, I'm curious where has it been said that TSPL and SWL (or, potentially, any other new attractions) aren't supposed to open for 5+ years? The last I read, it sounded like a budget equal to or greater than the amount spent at DCA was expected for a redo of DHS with changes supposedly coming in stages, again like DCA. Have things changed?

There seems to be a lot of smoke indicating that any Star Wars additions won't happen until 2020 at the earliest and more likely 2021.

That said, insiders like @articos have hinted recently that work to renovate DHS is still proceeding behind the scenes and "stuff" will happen in the near future (like construction beginning in the end of 2015 or beginning of 2016). The new "flex" theater is actively being built backstage, which might be viewed as the first step for future works.

I certainly have no idea what is coming or when, but I get the vibe that some Pixar stuff will roll out in the 2017-18 timeframe.

 

[AEfx]

Ok, but you're still missing the point. Percentages don't mean anything. They change based on the size of what you're comparing. If Universal is 100 people and Disney is 1,000, their growth is 62.38 people while Disney's is 82.1. Still bigger. You see?

7 Park Attendance = TOTAL MARKET OF ORLANDO THEME PARK ADMISSIONS

TOTAL MARKET 2009 = 63.4M
TOTAL MARKET 2014 = 72.5M

That's a gain of 9.1M admissions to the overall market.


Disney went from 47.5M to 51.4M admissions. Gain? 3.9M admissions over 4 theme parks.

Universal went from 10.1M to 16.4M admissions. Gain? 6.3M admissions over 2 theme parks.


Clearly, Disney holds the lions share of the market. No one is doubting that. Disney isn't hurting. No one is saying they are. But when you take into account that Disney's numbers are spread over double the theme parks Universal has, and how much the MK skews those numbers, it's a bit more stark. MK is clearly untouchable, as unfortunate as it is (it's why it hasn't had a grand scale attraction added since 1992).

Disney Parks on average from 2009 to 2014 added an additional .975M admissions/park.

Universal Parks on average from 2009 to 2014 added an additional 3.15M admissions/park.


And when you really dig in (all numbers again from 2009 to 2014):

MK = +2.1M admissions
EP = + .4M admissions
ST = + .6M admissions
AK = + .8M admissions

USF = +2.8M admissions
IOA = +3.5M admissions

SW = -(1.1M) admissions


At this rate, this is why folks are predicting what they are. One or both of the Universal parks will likely beat out one or more the non-MK parks at some point in the near future. Given that 2014 only has half a year of increases based on Harry 2.0, it just may be closer than we think that a Universal park overtakes at least one of the Disney parks.

Is Disney going out of business over this? Hardly. But you bet your bottom Disney Dollar that folks inside Disney are not happy about this - because every +1 admission to a Universal park is seen as -1 admission that could have been added to a Disney Park. Unfortunately, it probably won't make anyone unhappy enough to do anything about it - but this was not their plan, in any way, shape or form.

 

[AEfx]

It is depressing to hear my favorite park, SW Orlando, has a "declining" attendance. The park is well themed and is a family based park. Every time im asked what is the best theme park in Orlando is, I say for the family its SW, for the thrill seekers is Universal.

I hope that people look past the negativity placed on SW and go to their parks to see what it truly is about.

I think it's less to do with the stupid controversy and more to do with that of those folks that are mobile (have a vehicle) and are going to multiple parks, more are spending that day going to a Universal Park for a 2nd or 3rd day, when in the past they may have gone one day to Universal and one day to Sea World.

In 2016 the new Frozen ride will open at Epcot, followed by an expanded meet and greet presence for Elsa and Anna at the Norway pavilion.

Which if you follow the capacity threads, is going to be a nightmare...and it will really just pull people from other parks, not make anyone go to Orlando for a C-ticket overlay. It will draw away some from DHS, most likely, the park that can least afford it.

By 2016 there will be a third theater for Soarin' in Epcot and (hopefully) a new Soarin' film experience.

See above, really just going to fix a capacity issue so folks aren't waiting quite so long - they just have a few more minutes to spend in gift shops.

In 2016 construction at Disney Springs is scheduled to be completed.

No one is going to book a vacation on that.

In 2016 the new Rivers of Light show is scheduled to open at Animal Kingdom leading to later hours.

Will just siphon away from the folks who end most days at Wishes! or the show at Epcot. It will do what AK has done since it opened - just spread folks out more.

In 2016 the new Shanghai Disneyland will open, and TDO will begin to receive return on their investment. New money will be available for future investments.

If you think that's going to end up in the Florida parks, I have a bridge in Shanghai to sell you...

In 2017 Avatar Land will open at Animal Kingdom.

It's doubtful that this IP will draw more folks, but it's possible - it's really the only possibility they have. The first film did the business it did because "3D! NEW TECH!" and being the first film made from the ground up with new 3D tech, it got a lot of looky-loos. But given that 3D movies have already hit their peak and dipped considerably, and another several years until the sequel, Avatar to most folks today means the Nickelodeon show (the merch is everywhere - McDonalds happy meals, etc.) and the Avatar Disney has hasn't bred a single break-out character or evoked any passionate fanbase, it's iffy. I'm hoping for the best.

By 2017 plans should be solidified (and perhaps construction begun) on a Star Wars land at DHS, and (if rumors are correct) an expanded Pixar presence. Although 2021 has often been cited as the completion date for these rumored projects, perhaps the DHS expansion will open in phases (just like New Fantasyland and the transformation from Downtown Disney to Disney Springs.

I'll believe they are serious when they break ground, and I'll believe they will be putting up Universal quality attractions when I'm riding them. Until then, the recent history of WDW construction doesn't have me too optimistic.

 

[El Grupo]

There seems to be a lot of smoke indicating that any Star Wars additions won't happen until 2020 at the earliest and more likely 2021.

That said, insiders like @articos have hinted recently that work to renovate DHS is still proceeding behind the scenes and "stuff" will happen in the near future (like construction beginning in the end of 2015 or beginning of 2016). The new "flex" theater is actively being built backstage, which might be viewed as the first step for future works.

I certainly have no idea what is coming or when, but I get the vibe that some Pixar stuff will roll out in the 2017-18 timeframe.

Thanks. If this is the case, it would seem to follow a "script" similar to the redo for DCA...attraction additions and refurbs over a 5 - 6 year period, with the the largest land/attraction addition and park re-dedication at the end.

Wasn't there was a hint by an insider or two of a potential parking deck being built as part of this (or was that just some armchair imagineering)?

 

[Andrew C]

Universal quality attractions

You want more screens?

 

[AEfx]

You want more screens?

If they are part of large-scale exciting attractions that feature them amongst physical sets and provide effects that could not be done practically, sure.

If they do it the traditional Disney way, just throw up a static screen and say "ATTRACTION!" then no, not so much.