TEA Attendance Report Now due June 3rd

[doctornick]

Is Disney going out of business over this? Hardly. But you bet your bottom Disney Dollar that folks inside Disney are not happy about this - because every +1 admission to a Universal park is seen as -1 admission that could have been added to a Disney Park. Unfortunately, it probably won't make anyone unhappy enough to do anything about it - but this was not their plan, in any way, shape or form.

See, this is where I disagree. The Orlando theme park market has grown in recent years and Uni has received the lion's share of that growth. So much so, that they have increased their market share. Totally with you there.

But I really think Disney execs don't give a flip about Uni's increased market share. If anything, they are probably thrilled with how things have been going in recent years: Uni spends oodles of money, more tourists come to Orlando, Disney gets increased attendance and revenues with minimal investment. That's a win for Disney -- I don't think they care that Uni gets a bigger share of the pie if Disney's amount of pie is increasing without any effort.

Now, don't get me wrong, I'm sure that the Disney bean counters are concerned about what might happen in the future if Uni actually steals days/revenue from WDW and revenues or attendance decrease. That would be a concern. And (if they are proactive) the powers that be at Disney should be preparing to take actions to prevent that from happening. But it hasn't happened yet and -- based on the numbers we actually see -- I don't see any reason for Disney to be unhappy. Quite the opposite, these numbers from TEA are great for Disney.

 

[Andrew C]

If they are part of large-scale exciting attractions that feature them amongst physical sets and provide effects that could not be done practically, sure.

If they do it the traditional Disney way, just throw up a static screen and say "ATTRACTION!" then no, not so much.

The traditional Disney way is to use AA's. I would like to see more of this again.

 

[AEfx]

See, this is where I disagree.

I don't really think we disagree much, honestly - you are right, unfortunately, it's not enough yet to kick their behinds in gear. They don't look past the next quarter.

 

[doctornick]

Wasn't there was a hint by an insider or two of a potential parking deck being built as part of this (or was that just some armchair imagineering)?

Don't know about parking decks per se (though it's been brought up) but there seemed to be strong rumors of changing the parking entrance at DHS such that instead of the main gate off of World Dr, the access point would be Victory Way and the Buena Vista Drive gate would become just exit only.

 

[rioriz]

Aefx, sorry but I believe anyone who does not believe Pandora will bring people into the park has HUGE blinders on! Even WDW74 has said Pandora will be done right. Everyone is saying "why doesn't Disney create a no IP attraction" blah blah blah....well here you go, in some opinion, a non descript IP Land that if Avatar was not connected to it would be lauded as the next coming of Everest.

Avatar will be a force that may catapult AK above Epcot as WDW second most visited park. If numbers stay the same, Uni Parks behind AK, AK could stay ahead of Uni (until Nintendo comes).

 

[ParentsOf4]

My biggest takeaway from the attendance numbers I saw was the chart showing steady to increasing growth in attendance at Disney parks following the decline in the 2001 - 2003 (post 9/11 attack). Even the recession in 2008/09 barely had an impact on attendance at Disney.

The recession had little impact on attendance because WDW offered huge discounts. In 2009, domestic Parks & Resorts (P&R) revenue declined by over $530 million despite Disney reporting a 2% increase in attendance.

That was about the same decline as in 2002, when WDW annual attendance fell by 2 million.

Per Room Guest Spending (PRGS) fell by a company record 8% while Per Capita Guest Spending (PCGS) fell by a company record 6%, reflecting those huge discounts.

In 2009, P&R operating margin fell to a (then) company record low of 13.3%, which was then broken by 2010's 12.2%. Perhaps not coincidentally, Jay Rasulo, who had been P&R Chairman, swapped positions with Tom Staggs that year. In 2014, P&R's operating margin was up to 17.6%, its best number since 2002.

With Staggs named COO and Rasulo effectively gone, it's arguable that the recession was a contributing factor to their ultimate fates.

 

[AEfx]

The traditional Disney way is to use AA's. I would like to see more of this again.

Reportedly that's what's going on with Kong. It will have screens and AA's.

Unfortunately, even though I disagree, folks just don't seem to want to slowly float past animatronic scenes anymore. They want fast action and movement. Again, I'd be perfectly happy if Disney just kept building TLM-style rides on all their films.

But something like Forbidden Journey - you just couldn't have done that without screens, unless you used cutesy miniatures and such and it still wouldn't have been the same. Universal is far from perfect, I was disappointed there were not at least some AA's in Transformers, for example. But I'd rather have Universal's far from perfect than the dreck that has come out of Disney the past decade.

 

[doctornick]

I don't really think we disagree much, honestly - you are right, unfortunately, it's not enough yet to kick their behinds in gear. They don't look past the next quarter.

My point is just that I don't agree with the premise that the TEA numbers today are "bad" for Disney. They are great for Disney. They are even better for Universal. Both are "winning".

I don't think any Disney execs are "upset" by the TEA numbers.

 

[AEfx]

Aefx, sorry but I believe anyone who does not believe Pandora will bring people into the park has HUGE blinders on! Even WDW74 has said Pandora will be done right. Everyone is saying "why doesn't Disney create a no IP attraction" blah blah blah....well here you go, in some opinion, a non descript IP Land that if Avatar was not connected to it would be lauded as the next coming of Everest.

Well let's hope the hairy h-e-c-k it doesn't come out like Everest...LOL. Don't curse it before it opens, LOL.

Like I said, I don't think it will bring people to Orlando. It's possible, and I hope it does. But there is simply no ongoing passion for that franchise that's going to make folks book a trip just for it.

It more than likely will just drag people away from other WDW parks, just like AK has done since it opened. Spend a little less time at Epcot or MK and a little more at AK. Chances are it will even out more than it will draw in.

Again, though, perfectly happy to be wrong on this - I really hope they make it awesome and it's a huge success.

 

[AEfx]

My point is just that I don't agree with the premise that the TEA numbers today are "bad" for Disney. They are great for Disney. They are even better for Universal. Both are "winning".

I don't think any Disney execs are "upset" by the TEA numbers.

This is going to come out in a way I don't mean...but have you ever worked for a corporation?

Every dime someone else makes in the same field is a dime you could have made. That's the mentality.

And when you look at the numbers I posted above - EP, DHS, and AK have pretty much stayed stagnant over the past six years. No one can be happy about that. MK is flying high, no doubt - but the other parks are just treading water in admissions.

Again, it won't be enough to get them to do anything about it, but they aren't popping champagne corks over this, either.

 

[AEfx]

The recession had little impact on attendance because...

Yay! The real numbers guy is here...LOL.

 

[Jimmy Thick]

Is it too early to fearlessly predict no Florida Universal park will beat DHS in attendance for next years numbers?


Jimmy Thick- A flat IOA says it all...No legs...

 

[doctornick]

Well let's hope the hairy h-e-c-k it doesn't come out like Everest...LOL. Don't curse it before it opens, LOL.

Like I said, I don't think it will bring people to Orlando. It's possible, and I hope it does. But there is simply no ongoing passion for that franchise that's going to make folks book a trip just for it.

It more than likely will just drag people away from other WDW parks, just like AK has done since it opened. Spend a little less time at Epcot or MK and a little more at AK. Chances are it will even out more than it will draw in.

Again, though, perfectly happy to be wrong on this - I really hope they make it awesome and it's a huge success.

In the 2016-7 timeframe, we will have: the Frozen ride, a new Soarin' film, Rivers of Light, and Pandora all come to WDW (plus Disney Springs completed). I think there's a reasonable chance that we'll at see something like Toy Story Playland pop up in that timeframe as well.

While I wouldn't attribute any increased to Pandora specifically, it wouldn't surprise me if we see some total attendance growth at WDW in 2016-17 due to the collective additions.

 

[1023]

Bob Iger approved the building of Cars Land. And he also approved the building of Buena Vista Street, with a working trolley system that is not just an Eisner-era pin cart.

Eisner's Red Car Trolley at WDW. The only ding-ding you hear is the cash register.

Iger's Red Car Trolley at Disney California Adventure. That smiling conductor has a real bell at his disposal. Ding-ding!

Bob Iger also just redressed DCA's Condor Flats into the far more attractive Grizzly Peak Airfield, just because it looks cool.

Bob Iger may not have shown much interest in the WDW parks in the last decade, but he's been very good for DCA during that time. And Imagineers weren't flying height test balloons behind DCA's Tower of Terror last year so they could build a new Denny's. It's for Marvel Land.

That said, I think Iger will also finally allow stuff to get built at DHS too. We'll know more at D23 Expo in August, I'm sure.

Okay....

There are plans currently to build on the parking lot adjacent to CarsLand and behind Tower of Terror in DCA? This is Marvel Land? You've seen the plans?

If true, that area is large enough for 2 IASW show buildings and infrastructure support... That doesn't seem large enough to hold all of MARVEL's glory....

*1023*

 

[AEfx]

Is it too early to fearlessly predict no Florida Universal park will beat DHS in attendance for next years numbers?


Jimmy Thick- A flat IOA says it all...No legs...

Actually, given the massive gain USF had with just 1/2 a year of the new Potter 2.0 land, it says that folks were going to USF first and then taking the Hogwarts Express over to IOA to complete the experience, which is not counted as a separate admission to IOA. Yet, IOA still maintained it's numbers.

 

[doctornick]

Okay....

There are plans currently to build on the parking lot adjacent to CarsLand and behind Tower of Terror in DCA? This is Marvel Land? You've seen the plans?

If true, that area is large enough for 2 IASW show buildings and infrastructure support... That doesn't seem large enough to hold all of MARVEL's glory....

*1023*

I thought that the Marvel additions -- if they happen -- would be in the Hollywoodland area where Monsters Inc/Muppetvision currently is.

 

[GrandRoyale]

Is Disney going out of business over this? Hardly. But you bet your bottom Disney Dollar that folks inside Disney are not happy about this - because every +1 admission to a Universal park is seen as -1 admission that could have been added to a Disney Park. Unfortunately, it probably won't make anyone unhappy enough to do anything about it - but this was not their plan, in any way, shape or form.

Thats where we will have to agree to disagree I guess. A person at Universal is NOT a person not at Disney. This is proven by the fact that Disney is still making way more money. I just don't see it that way. I really do think that the increases at Universal are mostly due to add-ons to Disney vacations, NOT substitutions.

And no, I dont think Disney is worried, the competition is worried. They're thinking "oh ****", no matter what we do Disney will always come out on top. Disney has no reason to worry, they're doing fine no matter what. It's the guys who can't stop them that should be getting nervous. IMO...

 

[Donald Razorduck]

I'll state again as I did earlier. That people will more increasing do Disney and the rest of Orlando as separate trips. With proper planning and positioning that will help SeaWorld as folks fill the rest off their Universal focused trip that will be the new version of three days at WDW like it it used to till the late 90s. I see a tremendous weakness developing for Disney in the preteen and teen demo. The Universal offerings along with thrill rides at SeaWorld and Busch will appeal to them more thus pressuring parents to break the model they grew up with.

I'll add Comcast is using it's media platforms to push their parks as well, an advantage Disney has enjoyed for a long time but is no longer exclusive to their model.

 

[PhotoDave219]

Thats where we will have to agree to disagree I guess. A person at Universal is NOT a person not at Disney. This is proven by the fact that Disney is still making way more money. I just don't see it that way. I really do think that the increases at Universal are mostly due to add-ons to Disney vacations, NOT substitutions.

And no, I dont think Disney is worried, the competition is worried. They're thinking "oh ****", no matter what we do Disney will always come out on top. Disney has no reason to worry, they're doing fine no matter what. It's the guys who can't stop them that should be getting nervous. IMO...

Yes, but if I go to Universal Today and go to Disney tomorrow, that is an Attendance tie for the year. Neither gains on one another.

And I truly believe that Disney is absolutely fine with that. As long as they hit their revenue numbers at WDW and get their licensing money from Universal, they're fine with it.


Edit: Who has that link to the Marvel deal? Were the financials disclosed? I forget exactly what their cut is....

 

[wm49rs]

Is it too early to fearlessly predict no Florida Universal park will beat DHS in attendance for next years numbers?


Jimmy Thick- A flat IOA says it all...No legs...

Yes, but you already knew that....

Jimmy Thick- My surname says it all.