TEA Attendance Report Now due June 3rd

[jakeman]

There is nothing that Uni can do about their ownership prior to 2009. And Blackstone about killed the product. (See: SeaWorld today.) Since 2009, Universal has been taking market share. They did again this year. This is bad for Universal how?

Where did I say it was bad? I think you are confusing providing context with opinion.

A healthy Universal is good for us as theme park goers. The statement that they are still making up ground and it should be a tighter race than it is right now stands though. That's not really an opinion. It's based on historical attendance numbers. If you want to attribute it to Blackstone I agree 100% with you, but the root cause doesn't change the current status.

 

[SJN1279]

"Comcast Corp., the parent company for Universal Orlando, has released its third-quarter theme-park revenue report. The parks saw an increase in revenue of 18.7 percent from last year. The company's overall profits went up 50 percent to $2.6 billion.Oct 24, 2014"

So how exactly is Universal losing?

If the comparison is Disney vs. Universal.....Universal is losing big.

 

[mahnamahna101]

If the comparison is Disney vs. Universal.....Universal is losing big.

To MK and Epcot, yes.

HS and AK, not so much. Based on what some of the OU insiders have hinted at, the TEA numbers for Universal Orlando are low. And HS and AK are lower than announced.

HS apparently is in the range of 7.5-8m in actuality (if you don't count parkhopping, like some say the TEA possibly does), while AK is closer to 8.5-9 million.

And all of them agree that IOA was definitely not flat last year.

HS and AK have their numbers inflated so they aren't so distant from Epcot and MK. I seriously doubt a park that closes at 5pm 40-45% of the year and stays open until 8pm during peak weeks gets over 10 million+ visitors in a year. Same with a park that only has 5 rides and 7 shows. Plus a low capacity play area and a low capacity walkthrough.

 

[ChrisFL]

wow, there's a few people on my ignore list I had to view just to see what they were saying....since there seems to be a lot of replies...nothing of substance in their posts

back on ignore

 

[jakeman]

HS and AK have their numbers inflated so they aren't so distant from Epcot and MK. I seriously doubt a park that closes at 5pm 40-45% of the year and stays open until 8pm during peak weeks gets over 10 million+ visitors in a year. Same with a park that only has 5 rides and 7 shows. Plus a low capacity play area and a low capacity walkthrough.

I would bet the first click metric is propping up DAK in the same way it's potentially hurting IOA.

Start at DAK, out by early afternoon to another park.

Start at Uni, take the train to IOA to finish the day.

 

[AEfx]

Universal vs. Disney. Universal is still losing big. End of chapter.

If the comparison is Disney vs. Universal.....Universal is losing big.

Do you have a blog where you share this remarkable insight? I'd love to be able to find this nuanced and thoughtful commentary on a regular basis.

 

[danlb_2000]

If the comparison is Disney vs. Universal.....Universal is losing big.

So winning and loosing can just be condensed to number of turnstile clicks? In that case DHS, Epcot, AK, DCA and DL are also loosing big time because they don't draw the same number of people as MK.

 

[Mike S]

 

[Figment2005]

I would bet the first click metric is propping up DAK in the same way it's potentially hurting IOA.

Start at DAK, out by early afternoon to another park.

Start at Uni, take the train to IOA to finish the day.

You're right, the first click method may be skewing things, but is that the method that TEA has used all along? If that is the case, the data is still accurately represented, although consistently skewed.

 

[Figment2005]

View attachment 95636

But but but, the trolls can be entertaining.

 

[jakeman]

You're right, the first click method may be skewing things, but is that the method that TEA has used all along? If that is the case, the data is still accurately represented, although consistently skewed.

No clue. Blind hypothesis on my part. lol

 

[SJN1279]

The Orlando United boards thread on TEA is highly entertaining tonight. Lots of complaining and many members seem to have the "real" number of theme park clicks.

Potter was their big addition. Nothing in their pipeline comes close. It gave them an increase, but no where near Disney levels. End of story.

 

[AEfx]

You're right, the first click method may be skewing things, but is that the method that TEA has used all along? If that is the case, the data is still accurately represented, although consistently skewed.

See, I don't think it's "skewed" - the intention is to give some measure of park success since actual revenue dollars are not shared.

What would skew the numbers is if they actually counted every click - so someone has paid for one day of Disney admission, goes to 2 or 3 parks, their same admission dollars wouldn't be multiplied by 2-3x.

And don't forget, while we are sitting here comparing park to park, what outside bean counters (the ones who use this report, as obviously Disney has much better internal data on themselves) really care about is more macro - they want to know how many bodies paid to be there for a day, not so much x-park vs x-park the way we look at it.

In short, this report isn't just put together as a fun popularity contest - I mean, heck, think how easily those numbers could be manipulated if they really counted every turnstyle turn at every park. It's meant to give a somewhat accurate way to project revenues, based on paid admissions.

 

[GrandRoyale]

There is nothing that Uni can do about their ownership prior to 2009. And Blackstone about killed the product. (See: SeaWorld today.) Since 2009, Universal has been taking market share. They did again this year. This is bad for Universal how?

The concept of market share is lost on you I think. Universal is not taking away anything from Disney...Disney's market share is still the same as it has been. Universal is just growing. But they'rs growing because people who are taking trips to WDW (that number has not decreased, err go no market share has gone away) are adding on a couple days at Universal...not substituting one for the other.

You fanbois have invented the idea of Disney vs Universal. They both benefit each other tremendously. A rising tide raises all ships, right? I can't believe the topic of how many people entered a theme park one year has created this hostile and up-in-arms of a thread. It's laughable really.

 

[Figment2005]

See, I don't think it's "skewed" - the intention is to give some measure of park success since actual revenue dollars are not shared.

What would skew the numbers is if they actually counted every click - so someone has paid for one day of Disney admission, goes to 2 or 3 parks, their same admission dollars wouldn't be multiplied by 2-3x.

And don't forget, while we are sitting here comparing park to park, what outside bean counters (the ones who use this report, as obviously Disney has much better internal data on themselves) really care about is more macro - they want to know how many bodies paid to be there for a day, not so much x-park vs x-park the way we look at it.

In short, this report isn't just put together as a fun popularity contest - I mean, heck, think how easily those numbers could be manipulated if they really counted every turnstyle turn at every park. It's meant to give a somewhat accurate way to project revenues, based on paid admissions.

That makes complete sense. Thank you.

 

[TalkingHead]

The Orlando United boards thread on TEA is highly entertaining tonight. Lots of complaining and many members seem to have the "real" number of theme park clicks.

Potter was their big addition. Nothing in their pipeline comes close. It gave them an increase, but no where near Disney levels. End of story.

The next insightful post will be your first.

 

[AEfx]

The concept of market share is lost on you I think. Universal is not taking away anything from Disney...Disney's market share is still the same as it has been. Universal is just growing.

I'm sorry, that's just...not true.

The "market" is "how many people are buying paid admission tickets to Orlando theme parks". This is a fluid number.

For years Disney has been under the impression that the market was "saturated" (cannot be grown) so they have gone the route of trying to squeeze more out of the same group already coming. Universal proved this theory wrong, because more net people are now coming to the Orlando area.

Since more people are now coming to the Orlando area, the market has grown. Disney is still top dog in that market, but their share of the market has gone down because the market has grown and most of that new market is going to Universal. The market is not static, it has grown considerably - yet Disney's attendance hasn't grown exponentially with it.

So yes, Disney's share of the paid admission days in Orlando is definitely down percentage wise, in the overall market.

 

[doctornick]

So the Disney fanbois are all over Twitter doing their happy dance over this report. Disney lost market share both Domestically and in Asia to Universal. How big of a Fanboi do you have to be to interpret these numbers as a positive for Disney?

The numbers are positive for both Disney and Universal*. It's not a competition, both sides can "win".

*=well, maybe not Disney in Paris.

 

[GrandRoyale]

I'm sorry, that's just...not true.

The "market" is "how many people are buying paid admission tickets to Orlando theme parks". This is a fluid number.

For years Disney has been under the impression that the market was "saturated" (cannot be grown) so they have gone the route of trying to squeeze more out of the same group already coming. Universal proved this theory wrong, because more net people are now coming to the Orlando area.

Since more people are now coming to the Orlando area, the market has grown. Disney is still top dog in that market, but their share of the market has gone down because the market has grown and most of that new market is going to Universal. The market is not static, it has grown considerably - yet Disney's attendance hasn't grown exponentially with it.

So yes, Disney's share of the paid admission days in Orlando is definitely down percentage wise, in the overall market.

Oh but I thought that the numbers were bogus, so how would I be able to truly figure out the market share percentages?

The fact is, Universal is going up but Disney is not going down. The market is growing but Disney is still not having anything taken away from them. They're still growing. Orlando didn't jump 17% in tourism just because Universal did.

 

[SJN1279]

The next insightful post will be your first.

Just wait when TEA announces its numbers in 2020, Universal will only be 5 years away from catching up. In 2025, Universal will be sure to catch Disney in 2030. And so it goes.