Disneyhead'71
Well-Known Member
When you competition is Disney, clawing market share is not going to be easy, and yet....
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TEA Attendance Report Now due June 3rd
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jakeman
Well-Known Member
That's not what I was implying and I think you know that.
The numbers don't lie. It is still the case that Disney inertia > Universal momentum.
Universal had the gap closed in 2000. They were a mere 200k guest behind DAK at that point.
You know how people around here say they shouldn't congratulate Disney for doing something it should be doing all along? Perhaps congratulations shouldn't be extended when it isn't even in a place it was half a generation ago?
hopemax
Well-Known Member
I think you and I are the only ones not worried about the flatness of IOA. All that means is that people didn't go there first. Which makes sense. In the Nintendo discussion it's all about the "rabid HP fans." Do we really think those people aren't going to go to DA and ride the train to Hogsmeade just like Harry did in the first book?
IOA likely had modest attendance gains "on the front 9" and then lost it "on the back 9." But since this isn't golf, it's only a problem for IOA if people stayed in the Studios all day. But we know from the earnings reports and the ridership stats for the Hogwarts Express that they didn't. This also means that growth as the Studios side is probably overstated a little, because some of it is simply people that would have entered IOA, but entered USF first instead. It's a pattern, I expect to see continue, with the Studios having stronger first clicks just because people "want to enter the world like Harry did." The die-hards probably enter the Studios, ride the train, do the rides over in IOA, then ride the train back to do Gringotts.
The resort as a whole is up 1.2 million visitors, and 8% overall, with the new expansion only open half a year. After all the growth they've had over the last few years, that's still very impressive.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Disneyhead'71
Well-Known Member
You do know that the people responsible for Uni's growth didn't own them until 2009, right?
SJN1279
Well-Known Member
Universal vs. Disney. Universal is still losing big. End of chapter.
jakeman
Well-Known Member
I'm not sure why I should care?
They are doing a good job and producing a high quality product on the back of one of the best IPs in a generation. I find no fault in what Uni is doing, but regardless of ownership, they are still making up ground. Regardless of ownership, the race between those four parks should be tighter than it is at this point. The fault in that lies with how far Uni sunk.
danlb_2000
Premium Member
"Comcast Corp., the parent company for Universal Orlando, has released its third-quarter theme-park revenue report. The parks saw an increase in revenue of 18.7 percent from last year. The company's overall profits went up 50 percent to $2.6 billion.Oct 24, 2014"
So how exactly is Universal losing?
jakeman
Well-Known Member
This isn't necessarily true. Disney appears to be willing to cede some portion of market share for whatever reason. Universal is doing a good job beginning to force the issue. Uni is still a ways off from directly challenging DAK and DHS in attendance, but while the decline from 2000-2009 can't be overlooked neither can the time period and aggressiveness in which they've recovered it. Disney appears to be very slowly pivoting to maintain the gap, but it may be too slow...or just right. We'll see.
hopemax
Well-Known Member
I wouldn't quite say that. Like I posted, Universal added 1.2 million guests in 2014, the 2 park comparison for Disney, they added 406,000.
Disney's speed is still greater than Universal's, but Universal's acceleration is greater than Disney's.
If AK+DHS growth continued at 2%, and Universal/IOA growth at 8%, Universal would match Disney in 4 cycles...2015, 2016, 2017, 2018. Now, I have a few doubts that Universal can sustain 8%, and thankfully for Disney Avatar hits before 2018. But who knows what else will happen between now and then.
jakeman
Well-Known Member
Yeah I expounded on that a bit more in a later post.
Disney seems to be willing to let Universal have it's day for right now. The long game from 2009 into the next decade was and is going to be interesting to watch. We theme park goers are going to be the winners no matter what.
Jimmy Thick
Well-Known Member
I know, when Universal opens the Lord of the Rings area they will beat DHS. Not to mention the new Marvel expansion. Or Nintendoland. Wait a second, Iam running out of excuses...
Jimmy Thick- Same old same old.
Jimmy Thick- Same old same old.
mahnamahna101
Well-Known Member
Now. In 10 years? After the 3rd gate? After both of the current parks have been extensively overhauled? After their groundbreaking water park? After 10,000 more rooms? After 10 years of steady growth (even 1-4% yearly would get both parks well past 10 million guests each)
The only way they could be losing is if they were distinctly trying to compete with Disney.
They're not trying to be #1 - they're trying to be themselves. Universal is constantly thinking, 'now wouldn't it be great if we...'. Rather than let Potter carry them through the 2010s, Comcast reinvested in their resort. As a result, it's set up to succeed in the long term.
Universal is just trying to increase their market share. Which by 2020, they certainly will have done. Both Universal parks should be at 10 million or so in 6 years' time. That's not me being a delusional fanboi. It's just logic. With all of the additions coming to UO over the next 6 years, 1.7-1.9 million for each park over a 6 year period is reasonable. Honestly, that's probably an extremely conservative estimate.
But considering AK and HS have super inflated numbers (closer to 8 million than 10 million), Universal isn't 'losing'. And with only momentum in front of them, I don't see them slowing down.
AK will do fine. Epcot will do fine. MK will do fine. But HS? With only TSMM, RnRC, ToT, Frozen Fun and Star Tours potentially by the late 2010s? Disney fanbois are crazy pessimists if they think 'just' those 5 can sustain attendance growth. All of the closed shows are going to crowd the streets big time. And DHS is going to be an absolute pain to walk through from 2017-2022.
USF and IOA aren't seeking to take out WDW, and as a result, will quietly surpass DHS unless Star Wars Land and the Pixar expansion are fast-tracked for 2020.
I don't see DHS perpetually going up just because of its location. Eventually, even the pixie dusters will notice how desolate its offerings are.
articos
Well-Known Member
Right. The steel frameworks for the Floating Islands.
hehehe
Disneyhead'71
Well-Known Member
Really? Universal grabbed market share both domestically and in the Asian market. Claiming Disney is winning reminds me of
articos
Well-Known Member
Regarding the Flying Tires - WED/WDI Originals: "We could have told them this. Oh, wait, we did."
mahnamahna101
Well-Known Member
DHS being surpassed by IOA and USF is extremely plausible. Especially since the earliest anything of substance is expected by insiders to be added is 2020/2021. By then, Universal could be prepping their 3rd gate and setting up phase 2 of Nintendo offerings.
It's not a lock, but why is the idea of USF and IOA surpassing 10 million by 2018/2019 ludricrous to some Disney fanbois on here? I doubt DHS will continue to increase. Frozen Summer Fun isn't fresh anymore and the Sing-a-Long auditorium wasn't packed to the brim when I experienced it this week. The bleacher section was near empty.
By 2017/2018, Disney will need something other than gimmicks to sustain attendance for DHS.
Disneyhead'71
Well-Known Member
There is nothing that Uni can do about their ownership prior to 2009. And Blackstone about killed the product. (See: SeaWorld today.) Since 2009, Universal has been taking market share. They did again this year. This is bad for Universal how?
danlb_2000
Premium Member
It's ludricrous to Disney fanbois because Universal is just another Six Flags park and isn't in the same league as Disney, they aren't even competition, so there is no way they will ever beat Disney in attendance.
