News TEA/AECOM 2018 Theme Index Released

[the.dreamfinder]

I think we all know that answer. Those decisions are driven by the louder nostalgic voices for Walt's park and not the finance folks who see the profit margins.

DLR and WDW make the lions share of the profits for PEP. International resorts not named TDR are money pits. Even their most successful one, SHDR, makes a modest profit.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Actually I think it is the finance folks. They have seen even when nothing was done for years and price increases people still came.

Yeah...follow the money.

“Walt’s vision” is not a concern...there is no one left with a clue what that would even be

 

[seascape]

Universal has been doing a bunch of building. They are on the right track. Universal's goal is keep improving profits not out doing Disney. Steady growth over years. Every year can not see a huge jump in attendance. It just doesn't work that way. Pandora is a great ride and Toy Story opened this year so Disney got a boost. AK has gotten a big boost from Pandora. Star Wars will boost DHS a bunch as well next year. Disney is actually trying to do something lately with their half day parks.

Disney has a huge head start, 4 parks, 2 water parks, endless accommodations, characters and stories that have been around for decades and decades. Disney didn't build all this stuff over night.

Less than a decade ago Universal had 2 parks that hadn't been update for a long time. A few high end hotels and City Market which wasn't great, idea was good but.

Universal has address every problem.

Finances always come into play. Universal has been building through an ever increase economy which is over do for a recession. No company can just bet the farm on new products even though fans would like them too. What if Potter did OK for a year but then fell flat? What if a recession happened and park attendance was going down while a bunch of hotels were being built? This stuff has to pay for it's self fairly fast.

Universal started with Potter which went over very well so they have gone with it making more Potter attractions. Along with that Universal has been pumping out other attractions yearly. That was problem number one, newer or different attractions needed.

Problem two was the lack of accommodations at different price levels. That has been addressed year by year finishing with two large hotels coming in at a budget friendly price point. Many people, especially foreigner, like everything to be all run by the same company. It's scary to head to the US and figure out transportation, hotel and theme parks. Disney is great at bring everything together. Universal is trying. Same can be said of some family from East Podunk, they don't want to have to figure everything out because it can be scary especially if you ain't no city person.

Number of parks and just general size are being addressed. You have hotels and two theme parks what else are these hotel guest to do? City Walk is better than it has ever been but could use some more entertainment I think? It's like Epcot but without the $100 cover charge. A water park was built, it's Florida people from cold climates want to do water parks. Hang out on a beach etc. etc. A whole new park is being built right now. With the new park I think Universal will become a full fledged vacation destination. Like I said before most people who have traveled a long ways to get to Universal don't want to become Florida experts on where to go and what company does what etc. etc. I can come up with lots of things to do around FL but they all involve you renting a car and heading out into the wilds of FL. SpaceX has been busy, if you happen to be in Orlando when they launch I would certainly head down to the Cape to watch it. Easy for me to say since I know people who live there. I can see a launch from their back yard.

I think Universal is doing fine but I would like them to move faster with the parks they have. I see dead space and stuff that can go for something better. I do see the reasons why they can only move so fast at any given time. Another problem is if you do a bunch of stuff all at once and then do nothing for a decade everyone will say the place is stale and Universal is being cheap etc. etc. I said that with Disney but that's because they have two half day parks that they did nothing with for a long time. I can see building a new park and waiting a while to make some money back on it but Disney just left DHS and AK for too long. I have always liked AK but it's been a half day park. It's close to a full day now and if they do something other than Hester and Chester or whatever that crap is AK would be a full day park. Of course it would bring in big numbers, it's a well themed park with good attractions. A couple more improvements is all that is needed.

Universal is not doing fine. USH attendance was only up 1% in 2018. Disneyland and DCA were up 2.44%. In 2019 you can be sure they will be up high single digits and blow Universal's California numbers away.

In Florida, in real themepark numbers Disney went up 4.37% compared to 3.79% for Universal. Again for the second consecutive year Disney increased at a higher rate. 2019 will make it 3 years in a row, 2020 with a full year of SWGE will make it 4 years in a row and finally in 2021 Disney will make it 5 straight years.

When will Universal's real 3rd park open? 2023 is most likely the year. By then Disney will have all 4 of their parks drawing well over 15 million each.

If you want to bring in water parks. Disney's two both out draw Volcano Bay, but it is true that Volcano Bay is a huge success and is now the 3rd highest drawing water park in the Orlando market but TL and BB are still numbers 1 and 2.

Now looking at the list of themepark companies, of the top 10 worldwide companies, only Cedar Fair did worse at a 0.7% increase. The average increase was 5.44% thanks to the 3 China companies. Oct Park will pass Universal when the 2019 numbers come out and Fantawild a few years later. What is absolutely clear in the TEA numbers over the past few years is Universal's days of being in the top 5 are almost over. In fact, while Disney was clearly worried about USH, from the 2018 numbers and how 2019 looks, they had nothing to worry about.

 

[Bairstow]

What do you suppose has derailed Universal's growth? Bad word of mouth from lackluster attractions like Fallon and Furious, or has Disney just been crowding it out of the Orlando market with its relentless nationwide marketing? With gas prices in the last two years it should have performed much better.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

When will Universal's real 3rd park open? 2023 is most likely the year. By then Disney will have all 4 of their parks drawing well over 15 million each.

It’s not.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

What do you suppose has derailed Universal's growth? Bad word of mouth from lackluster attractions like Fallon and Furious, or has Disney just been crowding it out of the Orlando market with its relentless nationwide marketing? With gas prices in the last two years it should have performed much better.

I wonder if the cost of the one day park to park ticket, which is a much better value than a one day WDW ticket, in any of its forms, turns people off. They really want people to do two or more days, but you need to reel people in first to do that. Doesn’t help that the Hogwarts Express turned IoA and USF into a single park either.

 

[eliza61nyc]

Yeah...follow the money.

“Walt’s vision” is not a concern...there is no one left with a clue what that would even be

And as more of the "old timers" die off it will become less and less important. One of the pit falls of "nostalgia"

 

[Bairstow]

I wonder if the cost of the one day park to park ticket, which is a much better value than a one day WDW ticket, in any of its forms, turns people off. They really want people to do two or more days, but you need to reel people in first to do that. Doesn’t help that the Hogwarts Express turned IoA and USF into a single park either.

You mean just good old sticker shock when people look for the cheapest option that lets their kids ride the Potter Train?

 

[matt9112]

It also proves my point that the "build more stuff to decrease crowding" people need to be careful what they wish for. DAK has more to do than they did two years ago, but I'm not sure they have 25% more capacity to accommodate the 25% more people. When attendance growth outpaces capacity additions, the parks get more crowded, not less.

in theory i believe you could outbuild attendance..theres only x amount of people who will visit period and although increasing the offerings also enlarges that net its still finite. if disney world doubled in two years for example (absurd example) there would not be double the guests. the issue at hand is that crowding is accepted as good buisnesss lines are good buisness it means people want to do what you have to offer. overcrowding isnt a thing for the mouse until it creeps into safety concerns or starts generating some kind of negative connection to the parks. this is been been coupled with the more numerous event offerings that allow guests to avoid these crowd problems if they have the cash. in effect "if this bothers you than you can pay to avoid it" this helps them contain a more vocal negative responce because if its that important to you there are tours and events you can partake in. the reality is this massive crowds are here to stay as they are maximized revenue.

 

[seascape]

It’s not.

Time will prove me right, but I am only talking the 4 parks in Orlando. MK is consistently over 20 million a year. AK is will continue to increase and DHS will be over 15 million in 2020. So where do you think those waiting to get into DHS will go first? Epcot of course and since attendance is counted at the first gate you go in Epcot will increase too.

BTW, AK only needs 1,250 000 to reach 15 miillion; DHS only needs 3,742,000 and Epcot only needs 2,556,000. That on percentage basis is 9.1% for AK. 20.54% for Epcot and 33.24% for DHS. AK increase by 15% two years ago with Parndora oy being opened part of the year and another 10% last year. Do you really think Star Wars will do less? DHS should easily draw 15 million in 2020. AK will continue to increase and more than 9% over the next two years. As for Epcot. It will have the hardest time but with the crowds at the other 3 parks and the new Gondola System and connecting DHS with Epcot and people needing a place to go while DHS is full. Plus there are two major new additions coming and one minor one.

Disney is blowing Universal away and only those who ignore what Disney is currently building and only look at Disney's lack of investment from 3 to 10 years ago think Universal is killing Disney. The numbers from the last two years and forward looking numbers show the real story. 58,311,000 vs 20,496,000 in 2018 and 55,872,000 vs 19,747,000 in 2017. Finally Seaworld Orlando attendance increased by 16% while Universal increased by only 3.79%. Universal has lost market share two years in a row and will continue to see it's market share go down in 2019, 2020 and 2021 while Disney's market share will go up and SeaWorld's market share returns from their Blackfish lows.

 

[imarc]

I believe the.dreamfinder was referring to your 2023 date for Universal's new park in his "It's not" answer.

 

[seascape]

Okay, I think there may be a tiny chance it could be ready in 2022 but there is now way it could be built and open in 2021. I still think 2023 or even 2024 is more likely than 2022. Comcast has huge debt and major capital expenditures required on their broadband side of the house. Plus with the China trade issues and investment their. it's time for the Universal fans to start their Thanks Beijing chant.

 

[GhostHost1000]

time to start digging ground on the 5th park

 

[imarc]

Okay, I think there may be a tiny chance it could be ready in 2022 but there is now way it could be built and open in 2021. I still think 2023 or even 2024 is more likely than 2022. Comcast has huge debt and major capital expenditures required on their broadband side of the house. Plus with the China trade issues and investment their. it's time for the Universal fans to start their Thanks Beijing chant.

Agree. As far as I understand it, it's not just a park that Universal wants/needs to build. They want a separate City Walk type area and a hotel so it can be its own standalone location and not just a satellite of the main UO campus. Plus they have to solve the sewage plant issue.

It's a lot to do. Right now it looks like they just have done some plumbing infrastructure.

 

[Rodan75]

I wonder if the cost of the one day park to park ticket, which is a much better value than a one day WDW ticket, in any of its forms, turns people off. They really want people to do two or more days, but you need to reel people in first to do that. Doesn’t help that the Hogwarts Express turned IoA and USF into a single park either.

We are visiting in October this year (a bad situation turned into a good situation, since now I'll see SWGE), but we've been looking into doing a day at Universal and then a HHN (likely not on the same day). The cost of that is insanely high for a park hopper.

I realize comparing that pricing to a single day park hopper at Disney isn't bad, but when you look at it from a pure add on to the vacation it is likely to deter us from visiting. We may do HHN and Seaworld instead to add variety and without breaking the bank.

And I totally get that I could likely get a room for 2 nights and buy a multiday ticket and the costs even out, but since I have DVC that isn't really appealing.

I'm assuming the pricing is more about margin than about driving attendance growth. If they can keep growing the margin they will care less about filling their parks to max capacity.

The Volcano Bay numbers, though, they must feel a little disappointing to them.

 

[imarc]

We are visiting in October this year (a bad situation turned into a good situation, since now I'll see SWGE), but we've been looking into doing a day at Universal and then a HHN (likely not on the same day). The cost of that is insanely high for a park hopper.

I realize comparing that pricing to a single day park hopper at Disney isn't bad, but when you look at it from a pure add on to the vacation it is likely to deter us from visiting. We may do HHN and Seaworld instead to add variety and without breaking the bank.

And I totally get that I could likely get a room for 2 nights and buy a multiday ticket and the costs even out, but since I have DVC that isn't really appealing.

I'm assuming the pricing is more about margin than about driving attendance growth. If they can keep growing the margin they will care less about filling their parks to max capacity.

The Volcano Bay numbers, though, they must feel a little disappointing to them.

Volcano Bay's max capacity is reportedly 6,000 people per day (Theme Park Insider).

Based on those numbers, they're averaging 80% capacity which I would think is really good considering weather and seasonality.

Or the reported 6,000 figure is wrong.

 

[seascape]

We are visiting in October this year (a bad situation turned into a good situation, since now I'll see SWGE), but we've been looking into doing a day at Universal and then a HHN (likely not on the same day). The cost of that is insanely high for a park hopper.

I realize comparing that pricing to a single day park hopper at Disney isn't bad, but when you look at it from a pure add on to the vacation it is likely to deter us from visiting. We may do HHN and Seaworld instead to add variety and without breaking the bank.

And I totally get that I could likely get a room for 2 nights and buy a multiday ticket and the costs even out, but since I have DVC that isn't really appealing.

I'm assuming the pricing is more about margin than about driving attendance growth. If they can keep growing the margin they will care less about filling their parks to max capacity.

The Volcano Bay numbers, though, they must feel a little disappointing to them.

How could they possibly be disappointed with Volcano Bays numbers? It was the 3rd highest drawing water park in North America. So it was behind both Disney water parks, that is a great place to be. It's profitable and no longer generating the complaints it got when it opened.

 

[Ripken10]

We are visiting in October this year (a bad situation turned into a good situation, since now I'll see SWGE), but we've been looking into doing a day at Universal and then a HHN (likely not on the same day). The cost of that is insanely high for a park hopper.

I realize comparing that pricing to a single day park hopper at Disney isn't bad, but when you look at it from a pure add on to the vacation it is likely to deter us from visiting. We may do HHN and Seaworld instead to add variety and without breaking the bank.

And I totally get that I could likely get a room for 2 nights and buy a multiday ticket and the costs even out, but since I have DVC that isn't really appealing.

I'm assuming the pricing is more about margin than about driving attendance growth. If they can keep growing the margin they will care less about filling their parks to max capacity.

The Volcano Bay numbers, though, they must feel a little disappointing to them.

We had fallen in same boat for an upcoming trip. My wife loves Harry Potter and thought a short trip (with DVC) maybe we could do a day in Universal. But it just didn't make financial sense. Hopefully we can plan another trip another time or the situation changes in some way to make it better.

 

[Bocabear]

How could they possibly be disappointed with Volcano Bays numbers? It was the 3rd highest drawing water park in North America. So it was behind both Disney water parks, that is a great place to be. It's profitable and no longer generating the complaints it got when it opened.

AND of the top water parks, it is easily the most beautiful.

 

[Rodan75]

Volcano Bay's max capacity is reportedly 6,000 people per day (Theme Park Insider).

Based on those numbers, they're averaging 80% capacity which I would think is really good considering weather and seasonality.

Or the reported 6,000 figure is wrong.

How could they possibly be disappointed with Volcano Bays numbers? It was the 3rd highest drawing water park in North America. So it was behind both Disney water parks, that is a great place to be. It's profitable and no longer generating the complaints it got when it opened.

Good Points. I had assumed (apparently wrongly) that the capacity for VB was greater than TL or BB based on the marketing and the board hype.