• Welcome to the WDWMAGIC.COM Forums!
    Please take a look around, and feel free to sign up and join the community.You can use your Twitter or Facebook account to sign up, or register directly.

News TEA/AECOM 2018 Theme Index Released

Sirwalterraleigh

Well-Known Member
Advertisement
Disney aggregates domestic parks into a single number that allows variation between the individual parks.
And that can be a legalized shell game.

I’m not saying they do that...merely that is an option whenever they wanted - theoretically
 

Disney Analyst

Well-Known Member
As always, the DCA numbers are clearly wrong, based on some first click method. DCA has been outperforming DHS for years.

Will be interesting to see if Disneyland can top MK next year with Star Wars? I assume the the capacity may not allow for this unless MK attendance drops?
 

wdwmagic

Administrator
Moderator
It also lacks strong public approval. There was a thread here a month ago polling with ride in DHS, and Saucers was dead last -- the only C-Ticket of the group. And when C-Tickets are built (or rumored to be built -- O hai, UK ride!), Disney fans (at least, the ones here) bitterly complain about how lackluster it is and call Disney cheap.

C-Tickets are constantly being called out to be ripped out (o, hai, Primeval Whirl and Aladdin Carpets!).

There is no love in building new C-Tickets (O, hai, Na'vi River Journey!).

Everyone says Disney should build C-Tickets, until they do.
I think its all about when/how they are added. Lets say SWGE opened with its 2 E tickets and 2 C tickets. I think that would be looked a lot more favorably, than say Aliens in Toy Story Land - being 50% of the entire land's new attraction line-up.
 

imarc

Well-Known Member
As always, the DCA numbers are clearly wrong, based on some first click method. DCA has been outperforming DHS for years.

Will be interesting to see if Disneyland can top MK next year with Star Wars? I assume the the capacity may not allow for this unless MK attendance drops?
MK attendance should rise next year since most people won't be coming to Orlando only for Galaxy's Edge at DHS.

Those that have "held off" until this fall will increase attendance at all WDW parks.
 

Sirwalterraleigh

Well-Known Member
I think its all about when/how they are added. Lets say SWGE opened with its 2 E tickets and 2 C tickets. I think that would be looked a lot more favorably, than say Aliens in Toy Story Land - being 50% of the entire land's new attraction line-up.
Agree...

It’s that they are building “mini lands” and not significant ads to the parks that provide mass usage.

The two Star Wars rides may be the best in history...but it should be those AND some lesser attractions to divert people and gobble crowds.

Toy story “land” is a rehashed low capacity spinner from DCA and an off the shelf one minute coaster
 
Last edited:

ThatMouse

Well-Known Member
Could you quote from where in the report that that's what their methodology is?
I realize the report also claims to have asked Mickey Mouse himself the numbers, but it's just as likely that the numbers come from making obvious assumptions which is not very strong in my mind compared to an actual scientific survey of a random sampling for example.

"Where we do not receive specific park/
museum-level figures from the operator, we
use a detailed methodology that considers
the following: historic attendance trends
at the park/museum; generally available
information on the park/museum and/or
operator; park/museum changes, such as
new rides, areas, shows, exhibits, ticket
prices, intellectual property connections,
etc.; general economy of the nation and
the specific metropolitan area; tourism
trends nationally and in the metropolitan
area; for parks, weather trends in the
area, particularly during peak periods; the
performance of nearby parks/museums and
other attractions; media coverage about the
operator/park/museum; and select factors
as relevant."
 

dreamscometrue

Well-Known Member
I was waiting to see DAK 2016 attendance (Pre Pandora) to DAK 2018 (full year with Pandora). Increased attendance from 10,844,000 to 13,750,000. That's an increase of nearly 27%! In absolute numbers though, that's an increase of nearly 3 million people annually. This is almost the same as 2009 IoA to 2011 IoA with a full year of WWoHP under their belt. Nice. :)
 
Last edited:

DisneyDebRob

Well-Known Member
I was waiting to see DAK 2016 attendance (Pre Pandora) to DAK 2018 (full year with Pandora). Increased attendance from 10,844,000 to 13,750,000. That's an increase of nearly 27%! Nice. :)
It is nice! And if someone can remember better then me please let me know but I think it’s about 7-8 percentage points higher then expected for the first full year? Great increase and shows that when you build something amazing, people will come. Keep it going Disney.
 

jrhwdw

Well-Known Member
Grated this is only a few days out of 2019 but, I gotta guess that
Epcot will packed for ROE's last July 4th(Weather permitting of course, last July 4th, Celebrate America and ROE barely happened)

I've said on these boards before that ROE's last weekend-Epcot Forever's opening, Epcot will be full. But we really don't know if WSL will be full all of "Fall"??? We have F&W, ROE's Finale, Epcot Forever might go Viral or whatever HEA did??? Will the masses start saying goodbye after July 4th?

Granted the 2020 show might have a better chance of a HEA response.

Moving away from the Night Show topic, for our historic insiders:

Did Epcot Center have better summer numbers when America Gardens had top names, All American Orchestra and World Dancers all summer?

Just wondering if Guardians Live Helps or hurts Epcot's summer numbers......
 

seascape

Well-Known Member
Universal is on the wrong track. They are not moving up the list are barely held on to the number 3 spot by less than 1 million. Next year they will be number 4. Oct Park increased 15% this year and will increase more than Universal does.

As for the so called competition between Universal and Disney, Disney was up 4.9% in 2018 vs 1.2% for Universal. That works out to an increase of 7,297,000 of guests vs Universal's increase of only 610,000.
 

Rodan75

Well-Known Member
Universal has sort of experimented with this. For a brief time, PortAventura in Spain was Universal’s PortAventura. A DreamWorks water park not owned by Universal is scheduled to open later this year.
Yeah. But both were pre-Comcast and their investment in the Parks business. I agree it is an odd angle. But Six Flags has a working business model combined with a company that has a passion for Parks, they could see some success.
 

Rodan75

Well-Known Member
Universal is on the wrong track. They are not moving up the list are barely held on to the number 3 spot by less than 1 million. Next year they will be number 4. Oct Park increased 15% this year and will increase more than Universal does.

As for the so called competition between Universal and Disney, Disney was up 4.9% in 2018 vs 1.2% for Universal. That works out to an increase of 7,297,000 of guests vs Universal's increase of only 610,000.
I wonder what they think the new park will do in its first year? Is staying at current levels, with one more day appealing? Does that drive enough hotel stays to make it worthwhile?
 

donsullivan

Premium Member
With all the discussion about year-over-year changes, I thought some might find this table interesting looking at the year over year attendance changes for all the Disney Parks worldwide for the last 10 years. I'm not sure that you can draw any useful conclusions from it but it is another way to look at the historical data.

374856

And the same for Universal Orlando
374857
 

EPICOT

Well-Known Member
I realize the report also claims to have asked Mickey Mouse himself the numbers, but it's just as likely that the numbers come from making obvious assumptions which is not very strong in my mind compared to an actual scientific survey of a random sampling for example.

"Where we do not receive specific park/
museum-level figures from the operator, we
use a detailed methodology that considers
the following: historic attendance trends
at the park/museum; generally available
information on the park/museum and/or
operator; park/museum changes, such as
new rides, areas, shows, exhibits, ticket
prices, intellectual property connections,
etc.; general economy of the nation and
the specific metropolitan area; tourism
trends nationally and in the metropolitan
area; for parks, weather trends in the
area, particularly during peak periods; the
performance of nearby parks/museums and
other attractions; media coverage about the
operator/park/museum; and select factors
as relevant."
As other have been saying, the absolute values for the attendance may be incorrect, but the trends (increase or decrease) are going to be fairly accurate. The cool thing about scientific methods is that as long as you measure something consistently (even if you are measuring it incorrectly) you will still get an accurate measurement of the trends.

For example, say you have a thermometer that is 10 degrees off the actual temperature (but you didn't know this). If the temperature outside decreased 5 degrees, you could tell that it changed 5 degrees with the thermometer, but you just wouldn't know the actual temperature.
 

MisterPenguin

Rumormonger
Premium Member
The main figure they give out to investors, and TWDC judge the parks by, is Per Guest Revenue Spending, which was one of the first things Eisner/Wells did when they came to the company.
That is true. That they give out dollar amounts as "the main figure."

That doesn't in any way conflict with what I posted, namely, that they **also** make claims in those reports about attendance numbers characterizing them as up or up a lot or down.

Making those claims as part of their presentation to investors requires them to be truthful or suffer consequences for lying in a public filing.

Going back to dollar amounts, though, the continued increase in revenue comports with the claims by Disney and AECOM with regard to their characterizations of how the parks are doing. In fact, the revenue is increasing at a higher rate than attendance, and in those quarterly reports, they point out attendance has increased, but that revenue has increased disproportionately more, and they explain why: mainly due to raising prices.
 

Corey P

Well-Known Member
Universal is on the wrong track. They are not moving up the list are barely held on to the number 3 spot by less than 1 million. Next year they will be number 4. Oct Park increased 15% this year and will increase more than Universal does.

As for the so called competition between Universal and Disney, Disney was up 4.9% in 2018 vs 1.2% for Universal. That works out to an increase of 7,297,000 of guests vs Universal's increase of only 610,000.
Universal has been doing a bunch of building. They are on the right track. Universal's goal is keep improving profits not out doing Disney. Steady growth over years. Every year can not see a huge jump in attendance. It just doesn't work that way. Pandora is a great ride and Toy Story opened this year so Disney got a boost. AK has gotten a big boost from Pandora. Star Wars will boost DHS a bunch as well next year. Disney is actually trying to do something lately with their half day parks.

Disney has a huge head start, 4 parks, 2 water parks, endless accommodations, characters and stories that have been around for decades and decades. Disney didn't build all this stuff over night.

Less than a decade ago Universal had 2 parks that hadn't been update for a long time. A few high end hotels and City Market which wasn't great, idea was good but.

Universal has address every problem.

Finances always come into play. Universal has been building through an ever increase economy which is over do for a recession. No company can just bet the farm on new products even though fans would like them too. What if Potter did OK for a year but then fell flat? What if a recession happened and park attendance was going down while a bunch of hotels were being built? This stuff has to pay for it's self fairly fast.

Universal started with Potter which went over very well so they have gone with it making more Potter attractions. Along with that Universal has been pumping out other attractions yearly. That was problem number one, newer or different attractions needed.

Problem two was the lack of accommodations at different price levels. That has been addressed year by year finishing with two large hotels coming in at a budget friendly price point. Many people, especially foreigner, like everything to be all run by the same company. It's scary to head to the US and figure out transportation, hotel and theme parks. Disney is great at bring everything together. Universal is trying. Same can be said of some family from East Podunk, they don't want to have to figure everything out because it can be scary especially if you ain't no city person.

Number of parks and just general size are being addressed. You have hotels and two theme parks what else are these hotel guest to do? City Walk is better than it has ever been but could use some more entertainment I think? It's like Epcot but without the $100 cover charge. A water park was built, it's Florida people from cold climates want to do water parks. Hang out on a beach etc. etc. A whole new park is being built right now. With the new park I think Universal will become a full fledged vacation destination. Like I said before most people who have traveled a long ways to get to Universal don't want to become Florida experts on where to go and what company does what etc. etc. I can come up with lots of things to do around FL but they all involve you renting a car and heading out into the wilds of FL. SpaceX has been busy, if you happen to be in Orlando when they launch I would certainly head down to the Cape to watch it. Easy for me to say since I know people who live there. I can see a launch from their back yard.

I think Universal is doing fine but I would like them to move faster with the parks they have. I see dead space and stuff that can go for something better. I do see the reasons why they can only move so fast at any given time. Another problem is if you do a bunch of stuff all at once and then do nothing for a decade everyone will say the place is stale and Universal is being cheap etc. etc. I said that with Disney but that's because they have two half day parks that they did nothing with for a long time. I can see building a new park and waiting a while to make some money back on it but Disney just left DHS and AK for too long. I have always liked AK but it's been a half day park. It's close to a full day now and if they do something other than Hester and Chester or whatever that crap is AK would be a full day park. Of course it would bring in big numbers, it's a well themed park with good attractions. A couple more improvements is all that is needed.
 

Corey P

Well-Known Member
That is true. That they give out dollar amounts as "the main figure."

That doesn't in any way conflict with what I posted, namely, that they **also** make claims in those reports about attendance numbers characterizing them as up or up a lot or down.

Making those claims as part of their presentation to investors requires them to be truthful or suffer consequences for lying in a public filing.

Going back to dollar amounts, though, the continued increase in revenue comports with the claims by Disney and AECOM with regard to their characterizations of how the parks are doing. In fact, the revenue is increasing at a higher rate than attendance, and in those quarterly reports, they point out attendance has increased, but that revenue has increased disproportionately more, and they explain why: mainly due to raising prices.
Attendance is meaningless, charge double and attendance can drop by 40% AND YOU ARE STILL MAKING MORE MONEY. But that can be misleading if those 60% aren't staying at your hotels or buying food etc.

The most important number is per guest revenue.
 
Top Bottom