News TEA/AECOM 2018 Theme Index Released

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The main figure they give out to investors, and TWDC judge the parks by, is Per Guest Revenue Spending, which was one of the first things Eisner/Wells did when they came to the company.

It’s average per guest revenue spending...which means there can be a ton of play “behind the numbers”

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Disney aggregates domestic parks into a single number that allows variation between the individual parks.

And that can be a legalized shell game.

I’m not saying they do that...merely that is an option whenever they wanted - theoretically

 

[imarc]

And that can be a legalized shell game.

I’m not saying they do that...merely that is an option whenever they wanted - theoretically

 

[Disney Analyst]

As always, the DCA numbers are clearly wrong, based on some first click method. DCA has been outperforming DHS for years.

Will be interesting to see if Disneyland can top MK next year with Star Wars? I assume the the capacity may not allow for this unless MK attendance drops?

 

[wdwmagic]

It also lacks strong public approval. There was a thread here a month ago polling with ride in DHS, and Saucers was dead last -- the only C-Ticket of the group. And when C-Tickets are built (or rumored to be built -- O hai, UK ride!), Disney fans (at least, the ones here) bitterly complain about how lackluster it is and call Disney cheap.

C-Tickets are constantly being called out to be ripped out (o, hai, Primeval Whirl and Aladdin Carpets!).

There is no love in building new C-Tickets (O, hai, Na'vi River Journey!).

Everyone says Disney should build C-Tickets, until they do.

I think its all about when/how they are added. Lets say SWGE opened with its 2 E tickets and 2 C tickets. I think that would be looked a lot more favorably, than say Aliens in Toy Story Land - being 50% of the entire land's new attraction line-up.

 

[imarc]

As always, the DCA numbers are clearly wrong, based on some first click method. DCA has been outperforming DHS for years.

Will be interesting to see if Disneyland can top MK next year with Star Wars? I assume the the capacity may not allow for this unless MK attendance drops?

MK attendance should rise next year since most people won't be coming to Orlando only for Galaxy's Edge at DHS.

Those that have "held off" until this fall will increase attendance at all WDW parks.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think its all about when/how they are added. Lets say SWGE opened with its 2 E tickets and 2 C tickets. I think that would be looked a lot more favorably, than say Aliens in Toy Story Land - being 50% of the entire land's new attraction line-up.

Agree...

It’s that they are building “mini lands” and not significant ads to the parks that provide mass usage.

The two Star Wars rides may be the best in history...but it should be those AND some lesser attractions to divert people and gobble crowds.

Toy story “land” is a rehashed low capacity spinner from DCA and an off the shelf one minute coaster

 

[ThatMouse]

Could you quote from where in the report that that's what their methodology is?

I realize the report also claims to have asked Mickey Mouse himself the numbers, but it's just as likely that the numbers come from making obvious assumptions which is not very strong in my mind compared to an actual scientific survey of a random sampling for example.

"Where we do not receive specific park/
museum-level figures from the operator, we
use a detailed methodology that considers
the following: historic attendance trends
at the park/museum; generally available
information on the park/museum and/or
operator; park/museum changes, such as
new rides, areas, shows, exhibits, ticket
prices, intellectual property connections,
etc.; general economy of the nation and
the specific metropolitan area; tourism
trends nationally and in the metropolitan
area; for parks, weather trends in the
area, particularly during peak periods; the
performance of nearby parks/museums and
other attractions; media coverage about the
operator/park/museum; and select factors
as relevant."

 

[dreamscometrue]

I was waiting to see DAK 2016 attendance (Pre Pandora) to DAK 2018 (full year with Pandora). Increased attendance from 10,844,000 to 13,750,000. That's an increase of nearly 27%! In absolute numbers though, that's an increase of nearly 3 million people annually. This is almost the same as 2009 IoA to 2011 IoA with a full year of WWoHP under their belt. Nice.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

I was waiting to see DAK 2016 attendance (Pre Pandora) to DAK 2018 (full year with Pandora). Increased attendance from 10,844,000 to 13,750,000. That's an increase of nearly 27%! Nice.

It is nice! And if someone can remember better then me please let me know but I think it’s about 7-8 percentage points higher then expected for the first full year? Great increase and shows that when you build something amazing, people will come. Keep it going Disney.

 

[jrhwdw]

Grated this is only a few days out of 2019 but, I gotta guess that
Epcot will packed for ROE's last July 4th(Weather permitting of course, last July 4th, Celebrate America and ROE barely happened)

I've said on these boards before that ROE's last weekend-Epcot Forever's opening, Epcot will be full. But we really don't know if WSL will be full all of "Fall"??? We have F&W, ROE's Finale, Epcot Forever might go Viral or whatever HEA did??? Will the masses start saying goodbye after July 4th?

Granted the 2020 show might have a better chance of a HEA response.

Moving away from the Night Show topic, for our historic insiders:

Did Epcot Center have better summer numbers when America Gardens had top names, All American Orchestra and World Dancers all summer?

Just wondering if Guardians Live Helps or hurts Epcot's summer numbers......

 

[seascape]

Universal is on the wrong track. They are not moving up the list are barely held on to the number 3 spot by less than 1 million. Next year they will be number 4. Oct Park increased 15% this year and will increase more than Universal does.

As for the so called competition between Universal and Disney, Disney was up 4.9% in 2018 vs 1.2% for Universal. That works out to an increase of 7,297,000 of guests vs Universal's increase of only 610,000.

 

[Rodan75]

Universal has sort of experimented with this. For a brief time, PortAventura in Spain was Universal’s PortAventura. A DreamWorks water park not owned by Universal is scheduled to open later this year.

Yeah. But both were pre-Comcast and their investment in the Parks business. I agree it is an odd angle. But Six Flags has a working business model combined with a company that has a passion for Parks, they could see some success.

 

[Rodan75]

Universal is on the wrong track. They are not moving up the list are barely held on to the number 3 spot by less than 1 million. Next year they will be number 4. Oct Park increased 15% this year and will increase more than Universal does.

As for the so called competition between Universal and Disney, Disney was up 4.9% in 2018 vs 1.2% for Universal. That works out to an increase of 7,297,000 of guests vs Universal's increase of only 610,000.

I wonder what they think the new park will do in its first year? Is staying at current levels, with one more day appealing? Does that drive enough hotel stays to make it worthwhile?

 

[donsullivan]

With all the discussion about year-over-year changes, I thought some might find this table interesting looking at the year over year attendance changes for all the Disney Parks worldwide for the last 10 years. I'm not sure that you can draw any useful conclusions from it but it is another way to look at the historical data.

And the same for Universal Orlando

 

[donsullivan]

And then we have the very long term eye charts all the way back to when each resort opened. No Shanghai chart because there is so little data. I'll likely add that next year.

 

[EPICOT]

I realize the report also claims to have asked Mickey Mouse himself the numbers, but it's just as likely that the numbers come from making obvious assumptions which is not very strong in my mind compared to an actual scientific survey of a random sampling for example.

"Where we do not receive specific park/
museum-level figures from the operator, we
use a detailed methodology that considers
the following: historic attendance trends
at the park/museum; generally available
information on the park/museum and/or
operator; park/museum changes, such as
new rides, areas, shows, exhibits, ticket
prices, intellectual property connections,
etc.; general economy of the nation and
the specific metropolitan area; tourism
trends nationally and in the metropolitan
area; for parks, weather trends in the
area, particularly during peak periods; the
performance of nearby parks/museums and
other attractions; media coverage about the
operator/park/museum; and select factors
as relevant."

As other have been saying, the absolute values for the attendance may be incorrect, but the trends (increase or decrease) are going to be fairly accurate. The cool thing about scientific methods is that as long as you measure something consistently (even if you are measuring it incorrectly) you will still get an accurate measurement of the trends.

For example, say you have a thermometer that is 10 degrees off the actual temperature (but you didn't know this). If the temperature outside decreased 5 degrees, you could tell that it changed 5 degrees with the thermometer, but you just wouldn't know the actual temperature.

 

[MisterPenguin]

The main figure they give out to investors, and TWDC judge the parks by, is Per Guest Revenue Spending, which was one of the first things Eisner/Wells did when they came to the company.

That is true. That they give out dollar amounts as "the main figure."

That doesn't in any way conflict with what I posted, namely, that they **also** make claims in those reports about attendance numbers characterizing them as up or up a lot or down.

Making those claims as part of their presentation to investors requires them to be truthful or suffer consequences for lying in a public filing.

Going back to dollar amounts, though, the continued increase in revenue comports with the claims by Disney and AECOM with regard to their characterizations of how the parks are doing. In fact, the revenue is increasing at a higher rate than attendance, and in those quarterly reports, they point out attendance has increased, but that revenue has increased disproportionately more, and they explain why: mainly due to raising prices.

 

[csmat99]

I think we all know that answer. Those decisions are driven by the louder nostalgic voices for Walt's park and not the finance folks who see the profit margins.

Actually I think it is the finance folks. They have seen even when nothing was done for years and price increases people still came.

 

[Jimmy Thick]

I fearlessly predict after one year of SWGE the Studios will surpass 15 million.