Survivor: Worlds Apart

[TheOriginalTiki]

Wow, sorry for not keeping us with this thread, guys. For some reason the forum stopped giving me notifications for new posts. I'm a bit frustrated with the narrative of this season because it seems to be setting up too obviously a Mike victory. All the other people left are practically goats. Carolyn had a great edit last night, but her overall edit has always been circumstantial and she only peeks her head up when it's relevant to the story. Could Carolyn end up winning? Logically...sure. Would it be the epic Top Ten winner finished we were promised by Probst? Nope...At least not when she was invisible for over half of the merge episodes.

Rodney's the only other one who even mildly has a shot against Mike. He's certainly abrasive, but if he gets to the end with Dan and Will the jury will pretty much have to vote for him by default. I'd like to be rooting for Sierra but she's obviously not winning with how little screen time she's gotten. Dan I'll admit I've turned myself around on from a "character" point of view. Really crosses my fingers that double vote comes into play for him.

Mike...He was my surprise favorite of the first episode and I still do really like him and think he's playing a hell of a game...I just wish the narrative weren't so straight forward that Mike is going to topple over the bad guys and win. Nothing's set in stone but from a narrative he's really the only one left that made sense.

That's why Cagayan was so awesome...come finale night we all felt that Spencer, Woo, and Tony had equal chances of winning (basically whichever of those three could drag Kass to the final two with them....the fact that Kass DIDN'T end up in the final two...*priceless* )

Here's my Second Chances ballot. I'll probably change up some of the names on different days and consistently vote for obvious people such as Fishbach, but here was my gut reaction...

Spoiler

Females:
Kimmi (She's one of my absolute favorite random pre-merge early people and I can't believe she's in the running! Also...She can eat a worm, she can eat a worm! )
T Bird (I mean come on...how awesome would it be if she got on, even if she only lasted a couple episodes...)
PG (Obvious favorite from hardcore fans)
Tenerelli (Either she'll be just as useless and it'll be funny, or she'll actually learn from Boston Rob and surprise us. Either way I do think she'll bring surprise entertainment value and is now my default bizarro female candidate now that Angie Layton didn't make it onto the final ballot)
Stephanie (one of the few RI people who showed a lot of people. Wish we could get Kristina Kell out there too)
Abi Maria (If you don't vote for her you are an IDIOT and a fool )
Ciera (For obvious narrative reasons)
Kass (As mentioned on RHAP, it'd be hilarious if Kass, Spencer, and Tasha all ended up together)
Tasha (thought she was rather bland on the show, but loved her during Ms. Survivor)
Shirin (Two words: Hell. Yes.)

I considered voting for Wigglesworth but I fear that she's going to be out of the social media loop and might not even be following the game, so she could easily end up being a dud.)

Males:
Varner (stocked for him. If he and Kimmi both get on they MUST be on the same starting tribe )
Savage (not an especially compelling character to me, but my nostalgia for Pearl Islands runs deep and it'll be neat to finally get a Morgan returnee)
Shane (The sadistic side of me almost wants him NOT to be cast just see what his reaction would be...but in all seriousness this is LOOONG overdue...)
Fishbach (Total win-win for RHAP fans everywhere!)
Jim (He was on cruise control to win South Pacific before Cochran's flip. Love his enthusiasm)
Culpepper (strictly just for the lulz)
Woo (I genuinely do think the guy deserves a second chance more than a lot of people in this cast. He might not be the most electric TV, but he's so freaking humble that I can't help but love him and want to root for him.)
Jeremy (When he ended his RHAP exit interview with "love ya Bay!" I knew he was a keeper )
Keith (God yes. He was one of the most authentic "real world" people we've had on the show since the old school days. About as far from a Mactor as you can get.)
Max (Pumped that he gets a re-do. His first time out completely fell flat)

I will NEVER vote for Spencer. Just throwing that out there. Not that it matters, he's the biggest lock out of everyone on the ballot. Also, let's all have a moment of silence for Greg Buis not being here...)

 

[Foolish Mortal]

Rodney's the only other one who even mildly has a shot against Mike. He's certainly abrasive, but if he gets to the end with Dan and Will the jury will pretty much have to vote for him by default.

the only person Rodney can beat is Will in my opinion. Given the choice of those 3 I'd have to give it to Dan.

 

[PUSH]

Here's how I'd vote:

1. Carolyn
2. Mike
3. Sierra
4. Dan
5. Rodney
6. Will

But I'd be ashamed to vote for anyone but Carolyn or Mike.

 

[DinoInstitute]

Here's how I'd vote:

1. Carolyn
2. Mike
3. Sierra
4. Dan
5. Rodney
6. Will

But I'd be ashamed to vote for anyone but Carolyn or Mike.

I have to think at least one of Carolyn or Mike are in the finals, more likely Carolyn, simple because they are sting players and if nothing else great at challenges. Sierra is at least playing a good social game, and it's not out of the question she could have a strong finish similar to how she had a strong tribe swap. Dan could also win if he's with the right people just because he could do something big with the double vote. Rodney is most likely done, and Will has zero chance of winning this game.

My dream final three, though it will never happen, would be Carolyn Mike Will. Wills going because he's a goat anyways, but the real action would be the epic Carolyn Mike showdown. Plus, we get an epic Shirin jury speech at Will, and it would be kind of cool to have it end up White Collar vs Blue Collar vs No Collar.

 

[flynnibus]

Its momma c's game to lose right now. People like her, she has an idol no one knows about, and she can win challenges when needed. She has everything going in her favor. She'd be nuts imo to flip now... Her only weakspot is the final winner not taking her to final three.

Will wont get voted out by anyone who thinks they can control his vote... And hes the empty chair at the final. Mike is enemy number one and has to win out... And no one will take him to the final by choice. He has no loyal to death alliance member.

Dan wont survive the storm and he too lacks the loyal to a fault person to take him to the end.

Rodney cant win anything and his only chance to progress is someone thinkung taking him further is a good idea. Hes only a vote at this point.

Sierra's best shot is avoid the target being on her back and win at the opportune moment. She is the one along with momma c to have the best shot to be at the end. But she has to play her cards right, and keep ensuring people target the others. She can start playing the "im not a threat at the end" pitch. She needs to get an alliance locked up with momma c... And those two could run it

 

[squidward]

If Mike gets voted out, it's open season on who can win. Nobody has been a lame duck, but none of them have done all that much either. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised to see Rodney pull this thing out. Had he not had that birthday meltdown, he'd actually be in very good shape right now.

 

[squidward]

the only person Rodney can beat is Will in my opinion. Given the choice of those 3 I'd have to give it to Dan.

I don't know. Rodney could end up giving some epic speech at the end about not getting any reward challenges for 30 days, and how he made it so far on so little. He's actually made a few friends because of his sense of humor, and could definitely pick up a few votes from the jury.

 

[SAV]

Tyler interview:

http://xfinity.comcast.net/blogs/tv...y-tyler-had-i-known-i-would-have-blown-it-up/

 

[PUSH]

Second to last episode. Bittersweet, but the previews have looked promising! Can't believe it'll be over in a week. Seems like we just started!

 

[PUSH]

A bit later on posting than normal, but what an episode!

As usual, I'll start with the reward challenge. Rodney is such a crybaby. Nobody at this point will vote for him with his attitude. I agree with Carolyn's decision. It's her reward, she won it. There is no obligation to give it to someone who is trying to guilt you into it.

No the immunity challenge. Mike got so lucky. He was not that great at the balancing, but he finished with the hook so early. Sierra killed the balancing part. And I can't believe how much Rodney blew that challenge. I feel like he was just pouting because he didn't get his reward.

Now on to the good stuff. I was surprised to see Carolyn was public enemy #1 when Mike won immunity. I didn't think these guys were actually thinking that much. I thought Dan or Rodney would be the target. No more laying in the background for Carolyn.

As for Tribal, it was one of the most entertaining Tribals since Jenn's idol. I thought it was a bit foolish for Dan to play his extra vote, but it really wouldn't have mattered in the end. Carolyn playing her idol, though, was a fantastic move. She sensed something was coming, and used it just in case, but boy did it turn out right. Dan's extra vote was wiped out, and he was taken out, too. And Dan was probably the next threat behind Mike and Carolyn.

Overall, Carolyn probably is regretting voting Tyler off, but I think she could still align with Sierra. Sierra really seems open to anything at this point, but I think she's smart enough not to keep Mike around. The next chance they get, Mike should be voted out. Even from Carolyn's standpoint, Mike probably would beat her in the end. Yet she might not have a chance at voting him out if she needs his vote.

And now, my power rankings.

1. Will - if he's voted out before he gets to the final three, something went wrong in strategy
2. Rodney - he's becoming such an annoying crybaby that he could be taken to the end just as a wash
3. Sierra - she's been making some moves the past two weeks, and she's thinking, becoming a decent threat
4. Carolyn - A target has been put on her back, yet she's still not the most threatening
5. Mike - He's been public enemy #1 for a long time, if he doesn't win immunity it'd be crazy not to vote him out

Here's my final 3 as of right now:

Will, Rodney, Sierra. I think Mike will lose one of the next two challenges, and then will be the time he'll be voted out. Carolyn might have enough to win the final challenge, which is usually endurance-based (something she's been good at), but if Mike wins the next one, she'll likely be the target. Sierra is playing a decently cunning game right now. I think she could emerge as a player in this final episode, and she's killing the social game. Rodney has annoyed enough people to not get many votes, and Will hasn't played since he landed on the beach.

The only way I think Mike would get to the end is winning out at immunity challenges. The only way I think Carolyn gets to the end is if she teams up with Sierra, which could be a good possibility. If Carolyn gets to the end I think it will be Carolyn, Sierra and Will.

 

[Computer Magic]

As for Tribal, it was one of the most entertaining Tribals since Jenn's idol. I thought it was a bit foolish for Dan to play his extra vote, but it really wouldn't have mattered in the end. Carolyn playing her idol, though, was a fantastic move. She sensed something was coming, and used it just in case, but boy did it turn out right. Dan's extra vote was wiped out, and he was taken out, too. And Dan was probably the next threat behind Mike and Carolyn.

.

If Dan didn't play his advantage, Carolyn would not have played the idol. Dan tipped off Carolyn. Carolyn knew Dan was going to have two votes on her. She wasn't going to risk it. well played Carolyn.

 

[PUSH]

I didn't think Carolyn was going to be a great player from the beginning. But she's far exceeded my expectations.

 

[SAV]

If Dan didn't play his advantage, Carolyn would not have played the idol. Dan tipped off Carolyn. Carolyn knew Dan was going to have two votes on her. She wasn't going to risk it. well played Carolyn.

This is exactly what I was going to write. Dan blew it for himself. If they were all on the same page, then he wouldn't have 'needed' his second vote and wouldn't have raised any suspicion.

I just watched Dan's Ponderosa video and he's still all over Mike about "betraying" him at the auction. I've said it before...Mike didn't betray him. He didn't go through with it. Dan got the letter from his wife and ended up with the Advantage. UGH!!!!

I am so sick of Waaaadney. Sack up and win a reward for yourself. Quick being a baby because nobody gives up something they earn for you. Others have had a birthday out there and is has never been such a big deal.

I am now 100% Team Mike and/or Team Carolyn. Those 2 are playing the hell out of the game. Both are smart and will bond together and try to pull Sierra in. Not sure if it is the best move for her, but they will sure try.

I'm thinking there will be a massive Idol hunt going on back at camp next time, even if there isn't one out there. Paranoia will take over.

 

[flynnibus]

I think Carolyn was going to play the idol regardless. The 'boy power' troupe was forming.. and Momma C had not done anything to secure Sierra. She knew the boys could be voting in a block, and it was going to be her or Dan. Dan's play was just to not go down with the thing still in his pocket. None of them knew Momma C had the idol.. which was her big ace. She knew she was at risk even before Dan played his advantage. Everyone knew it was down to those two.. and both played their Nuke.

Failing to get Will or Sierra on her side is going to be Momma C's downfall. She needs more votes on her side.. and her and Mike won't do it alone. She may have been one tribal too late in making that move.

It boggles my mind how inconsistent the players are with tracking idols. I'd love to know what the producers really tell them off camera about the rules of idol play. With the edits, it seems completely arbitrary when they start or stop thinking 'there are idols out there unaccounted for'.

 

[SAV]

Delusional Dan interview up:

http://xfinity.comcast.net/blogs/tv...eally-felt-like-i-was-not-properly-portrayed/

 

[Computer Magic]

a little fore thought and Dan could have used his two votes on will, Rodney or sierra. That would have brought a tie with the two that voted for him.

 

[PUSH]

a little fore thought and Dan could have used his two votes on will, Rodney or sierra. That would have brought a tie with the two that voted for him.

The only problem with that would be, had Carolyn not played her idol, there would have been two votes for a random person, and everyone would have know it was Dan. In hindsight it seems clear, but there was no way to know Carolyn had an idol if you weren't her or Tyler or a viewer at home.

 

[JPPT1974]

Carolyn only told Tyler and the viewer that she had an idol. As really she needed to play it. If she did not, then she would had been going home, not Dan.

 

[DinoInstitute]

Just watched it recently...And that was a good episode! Dan is a moron, Rodney is annoying, and Will is a nonentity. I'm glad that we escaped that as a final three But for now, I still think the best scenerio is a Will vs Carolyn vs Mike final three. And I mapped it out in my head....Mike and Carolyn are in a loose alliance, working together when they have to but willing to get rid of the other because they are both threats. And Sierra is playing a silent but smart game, and pretty much with Carolyn (but she did vote against her last night). I figure that if Mike wins immunity, Sierra will stay locked with Carolyn to vote out Rodney as that will separate the Rodney/Will 'power' duo as well as keep Will the nonentity, while Rodney/Will will vote out Carolyn. Mike would probably side with Caroyln/Sierra simply because she is his best chance at an alliance, and Rodney is gone. Then, final four, Will is a shoe-in for finals, and say Mike wins immunity. I can actually see Mike taking Carolyn to the final 3 over Sierra because there is always the chance that there will be a surprise final two, as Cagayan proved, and Mike wouldn't want to risk it. So, then we end up with a final three of Mike/Carolyn/Will, because as viewers we know it will end as final three. Then, the jury votes play out like this...
Rodney- Will
Sierra- Carolyn
Dan- Carolyn
Tyler- Carolyn
Shirin- Mike
Jenn- Mike
Joe- Mike
Hali- Mike
So we get an exciting close finish between Mike and Carolyn, as Mike (our hero as the editors portray him) wins and Carolyn comes back for 31.
BOOM! I did it!
Yeah, I know, that's a stretch and it would never play out that way, but that's my dream scenario

 

[PUSH]

The only way I see Mike getting to the end is by winning the next two immunity challenges. Everyone knows he would win if he got to the end. I can see him winning one of the next two at least, or maybe even both. If he wins the next challenge, I think Carolyn is gone unless she can pull Sierra over, but I think Sierra knows Mike and Carolyn are the big two threats, and then I think she knows she's arguably the next best player. Rodney and Will are pretty much the bottom two, and I don't think either one has much of a chance to win. So if Carolyn (or anyone but Mike) wins immunity, Mike is out, even if Carolyn sticks with him, because I think Sierra is smarter than that. Then if Mike would leave, I would pick Carolyn to beat out the other three at the final challenge, which is usually endurance-based. But the final challenge also often has surprise winners, like Jaclyn from last season. I could see Carolyn or Sierra winning that, as it usually favors less-muscular, yet tough people. Should Carolyn win, I would expect a Carolyn/Rodney/Will final three. Should Sierra win, I'd expect a Sierra/Rodney/Will final three.

So, to sum this up I can see a few different possibilities.

CASE 1: Mike wins immunity challenge 1... Final 4 would be: Mike, Sierra, Rodney, Will
CASE 2: Anyone but Mike wins immunity challenge 1.... Final 4 would be: Carolyn, Sierra, Rodney, Will

Case 1 (Part 2): Mike wins final immunity challenge... Final three would be: Mike, Sierra, Will (because I don't think Mike sees Sierra as a threat)
Case 1 (Part 3): Anyone but Mike wins final immunity challenge... Final three would be: Sierra, Rodney, Will
Case 2 (Part 2): Carolyn wins final immunity challenge... Final three would be: Carolyn, Rodney, Will
Case 2 (Part 3): Sierra wins final immunity challenge... Final three would be: Sierra, Rodney, Will

In the first instance I think the votes would go like this:
Rodney - Sierra
Carolyn - Mike
Dan - Sierra
Tyler - Mike
Shirin - Mike
Jenn - Mike
Hali - Mike

Winner: Mike

In the second instance...
Mike - Sierra
Carolyn - Sierra
Dan - Sierra
Tyler - Sierra
Shirin - Sierra
Jenn - Sierra
Hali - Sierra

Winner: Sierra

In the third instance...
Sierra - Carolyn
Mike - Carolyn
Dan - Carolyn
Tyler - Carolyn
Shirin - Carolyn
Jenn - Carolyn
Hali - Carolyn

Winner: Carolyn

In the fourth instance...
Carolyn - Sierra
Mike - Sierra
Dan - Sierra
Tyler - Sierra
Shirin - Sierra
Jenn - Sierra
Hali - Sierra

Winner: Sierra

Kind of confusing, and I know there are a lot of variables, but I can really only see three people winning. A lot would have to go right for either of these three to win, but I can't see it happening where Rodney or Will would win. And I can't see a Mike vs Carolyn final. I think Dan and Rodney, should they both be on the jury in Instance 1, would vote for Sierra because of stubbornness and bitterness.

I'm hoping Instance 3 pans out, but the stars would have to align for that, but I do think it's a very real possibility. The biggest factor is going to be getting a puzzle or and endurance challenge that doesn't favor Mike in the next immunity challenge.