Surge Pricing Holding Up (Semi) Annual Increase ...

[Pumbas Nakasak]

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, once you step out of the Rats Trap youll be amazed at what a big world there is to explore, you'll be stunned that you can get proper quality food in an environment devoid of an uncontrolled crèche ambiance and pay less than Disney. Theres many other exciting things to draw your attention too from participation events and attractions to simply sitting people watching. And most of it is real, not just mesh with sprayed concrete and gaudy paint, then there's the great outdoors. Nature is more creative than any Imagineer will ever be.
Ill be honest despite being in the DVC iff never went back to Disney World I wouldn't loose any sleep, I just dont care for what the mouse offers in Orlando any more. I stopped posting here because I genuinely was NFI in what Disney did. Unfortunately even selfish bastards like me have to compromise some times and for the sake of keeping my dangly bits attached I have relented and we are going back to WDW this year as grandparents. However it is a very tailored visit, sure we have a 14 day ticket, but then its sold at the cost of seven day and that's still cheaper than the 4 day tickets we need, no surge pricing for this Johnny foreigner. Meals, we were 1 table 1 counter service every day, the cattle market feel over pricing and homogenised menus mean Ill be taking my folding stuff beyond the nest.
Nothing will ever be an affront to the ubber brand loyalists and its nice they have something to cling to that gives them a warm feeling that's not incontinence related, me Ive tasted the forbidden fruit of holidays beyond Disney World and found them far more appetising.

 

[Andrew C]

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, once you step out of the Rats Trap youll be amazed at what a big world there is to explore, you'll be stunned that you can get proper quality food in an environment devoid of an uncontrolled crèche ambiance and pay less than Disney. Theres many other exciting things to draw your attention too from participation events and attractions to simply sitting people watching. And most of it is real, not just mesh with sprayed concrete and gaudy paint, then there's the great outdoors. Nature is more creative than any Imagineer will ever be.

Who are you talking to?

 

[Brad Bishop]

One example of all of this is Six Flags.

At one time Six Flags tried to actually be a theme park and was generally thought of as "2nd tier" to Disney. Over the decades they changed ownership a few times and in the 1990s and early 2000s they were on a roller-coaster buying binge and a park-buying binge.

The higher up execs thought that they were all geniuses. Theming was gone. Just buy more coasters and parks each year. Don't worry about staff training. Cut back on staff. All that is important is expansion, expansion, expansion.

That's what they did. And in the early 2000s they just about went belly up. The stock was under $1 (penny/junk stock) and people didn't like their parks because:
- they were filthy / had trash everywhere
- employees weren't attentive unless they were being rude.
- the clientele changed from families to teenagers who'd cut in line and nothing was done about it
- you're were paying $$ (not Disney $$$) for an unpleasant experience

People stopped going. People don't want to pay money to take their family to an unpleasant place and have an unpleasant experience as part of their recreational activities.

Six Flags is MUCH better now but there's still a sour taste in a lot of mouths. It also took them nearly 15 years to crawl out from under all of that mess. I'd assess them as "just re-emerging".

I don't think they'll ever be a theme park again, in any sort of traditional sense, but more of a chain of family/thrill parks.

My point being that Six Flags was a well known entity / large corporation and they really screwed things up. It wasn't like some mom & pop amusement park that let things go over the years to where they couldn't recover. It's foolish to pretend that it can't happen elsewhere.

 

[EOD K9]

I had purchased a 1 day hopper to use after my cruise two months ago. My daughters were sick so we just stayed at the hotel instead. I plan on using it next month being as it is still valid, but here is my question. If I use it on a surge day, am I grandfathered in or do I pay extra?
Second, I am one of those people who are now parents, and I have seen the decline in the parks. While it is expensive, I will gladly use my funds for DCL. How do I finance that? By renting my paid off DVC to those who want to go to the parks. It is a win for me!

 

[Pumbas Nakasak]

Who are you talking to?

I dont know I wast aware I had to address my posts to specific site users, unless Im insulting them of course. can you clue me in on how this message board stuff works. Things may have changed since I previously posted and Id hate to be posting in a manner that doesn't meet the new styleee.

 

[Andrew C]

I dont know I wast aware I had to address my posts to specific site users, unless Im insulting them of course. can you clue me in on how this message board stuff works. Things may have changed since I previously posted and Id hate to be posting in a manner that doesn't meet the new styleee.

You posted something...I responded with a question. Your post seems to be directed towards someone...so I was wondering who you were talking to.

youll be amazed at what a big world there is to explore,

Who is 'you' in the above?

 

[CJR]

I kind of see Disney in the same position oil companies were in a couple years ago. The oil companies seemed to be at the top, completely dominating. Look at them now, and when they started falling, it was fast.

I think when people do start changing up their vacations to places other than Disney, it'll happen in masses, pretty much all at once. They'll be on top one day and then be scrambling to get people into the gates and hotel rooms. You can only outpace inflation for so long before you're seen as "not worth it", even by those who can actually afford it.

Currently, in my opinion, the best valued "Disney vacation" goes to Castaway Cay. Hopefully that sticks around longer as it's one way the company will keep some of my money in the coming years.

 

[sshindel]

We've all seen the recent surveys where you cannot give negative feedback on Disney experiences and the ones which kick you out if you answer a question incorrectly

Actually, last I had checked, you were the only person that had seen them. The many, many other people that respond to you stating that they have received surveys with lengthy areas allowing negative feedback.

You are correct though that flawed data in can lead to flawed predictions. The survey data that you speak of though is qualitative data, which in most cases is treated as a minor part of an overall analysis. The quantitative things are what measures will be used to predict. Given historical seasonal attendance, guest and cast member characteristics, build a model that predicts something like expected attraction wait time. Then change the CM mix, reduce the number of CMs manning attractions while holding the other values constant and see what the predicted wait time will be. Do the same for any number of qualitative metrics and make the decision based on this. None of which would use any sort of "flawed" surveys.

 

[BernardandBianca]

Actually, last I had checked, you were the only person that had seen them. The many, many other people that respond to you stating that they have received surveys with lengthy areas allowing negative feedback..

Add me to the list of people who was subjected to "no negative responses allowed" surveys. The ones where the most negative answer was along the lines of "It was only slightly magical".

 

[sshindel]

As you might guess from my other posts, I think the self-destruction will be later than what people would hope. The "kids, now parents" from WDW's Golden Age will keep things afloat in the short term for attendance and profits. It will take another 10 years for that wave to end. But what is show hard to show, especially given our limited data resources is what the attendance data curve should have looked like, if they had continued to operate as they had prior to the 25th anniversary vs the actual attendance data curve. Even 2% increases are under-performance when the expectation should have been 6%. And how do you have a chance to convince people that a company making billions, could be even making more billions by retaining an even higher percentage of previous visitors?

Disney used their data to suggest that theme parks were a mature market within the US, from 1998ish-DL's 50th and everyone believed it until the revitalization of Disneyland, and more recently Universal's growth to show that with investment in quality experiences, there was still growth to be had. The 10 year window, is of much interest to me, because I expect something in regards to Universal's third park to be far into development (if not recently opened) and for WDW's weaknesses to approach maximum. Not only will the Golden Age Kid to Parent wave be over, Star Wars Land should be 5 years old, and most of the bump from that will have passed. Avatar and TS Land will also be in the past, and after a decade of massive capital improvements I doubt management and shareholders will be eager to see that continue. Also, on the CM/Management side, there are still pockets of good people trying their best, and 10 years from now, I think that group will be retired. Most of the "backstops" will be gone. The remaining one being whatever remains from "old Disney" attractions like HM or Pirates, architecture on Main Street and other places, the characters, etc. If people keep saying "what they love about WDW is stuff instituted by old regimes" that is not a good indicator going forward.

The indicators are probably not going to be overall attendance and profits, but Brand perception, length of stay and other things we probably won't be able to track. Is Disney still Disney (with all the positive nostalgia that comes from saying that word). Or are they Sears or any other business that once dominated their market but now viewed as a lesser Brand in their category. WDW doesn't have to go out of business, or even fall behind Six Flags to have self-destructed. They just have to be the Brand that people snicker or jeer about and not revere.

I get what you are saying, but don't quite agree with your speculation on how the market will mature and the assumptions made that capital investment will stagnate. There will still be a generation who grew up enjoying Disney because their parents enjoyed it, and they will bring their children, etc. But those are assumptions of course, and I have no access to the data I'd need to really predict if this trend is going to continue.

To your last point though, how far would Disney have to fall in 10 years to have their brand damaged from being the "most powerful brand in the world"?
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/trav...world-most-powerful-brand-20160202-story.html
They've done so much to strengthen their brand, and the brands of their acquisitions, that a massive domino chain of events would have to happen in order to damage it to the point of the general public snickering at it. I know that snickering is done at the company, mostly within the News and Rumors section of forums like these, but to say that the general public shares this is way too big of a leap for me to make.
*Note, I'm referring to Disney as a whole entity and not the Parks division. As long as Disney's brand stays strong, they will have plenty of intellectual capital to mine to keep their parks strong as well.

 

[Lee]

Well...looks like a fine time to return from my little hiatus. How y'all been?

I was gonna ask, "What did I miss?"...then this is the first thread I see.

So, prices going up. Not a surprise.

What worries me are the other rumblings I'm hearing. The ones that foreshadow statements like:

"I'm sorry sir. Your daily Magical Pass only allows you one ride on Tower of Terror per day. You should consider upgrading to the More Magical Pass which would give you up to three rides. It's only $49.99 more per day, per person."

 

[Kamikaze]

Well...looks like a fine time to return from my little hiatus. How y'all been?

I was gonna ask, "What did I miss?"...then this is the first thread I see.

So, prices going up. Not a surprise.

What worries me are the other rumblings I'm hearing. The ones that foreshadow statements like:

"I'm sorry sir. Your daily Magical Pass only allows you one ride on Tower of Terror per day. You should consider upgrading to the More Magical Pass which would give you up to three rides. It's only $49.99 more per day, per person."

Are you saying - in effect - a return to ticket books?

 

[sshindel]

Add me to the list of people who was subjected to "no negative responses allowed" surveys. The ones where the most negative answer was along the lines of "It was only slightly magical".

I get that. I guess I'll correct myself (and my little poke at @ford91exploder, which was intended for him) that some of these surveys have existed, though the reports of them seem massively tiny compared to the people who have received perfectly normal surveys. For every mention of one, I typically see 10 or so people respond on the number of surveys they have received that do allow negative opinions. Presenting a skewed example as the majority is misrepresenting the facts.
It's like claiming massive voter fraud when nationwide something like 10 provable cases of fraud exist.

Ooops, that might be a bit too political...

 

[Rteetz]

Well...looks like a fine time to return from my little hiatus. How y'all been?

I was gonna ask, "What did I miss?"...then this is the first thread I see.

So, prices going up. Not a surprise.

What worries me are the other rumblings I'm hearing. The ones that foreshadow statements like:

"I'm sorry sir. Your daily Magical Pass only allows you one ride on Tower of Terror per day. You should consider upgrading to the More Magical Pass which would give you up to three rides. It's only $49.99 more per day, per person."

Oh dear...

 

[cdd89]

I think the only winners from this (to the extent that there would be any) would be Annual Passholders.

Those who have no choice but to visit during peak days would pay an unprecedented surplus.

Those who liked visiting on lower crowd level days will not pay more, but will likely have the low crowd levels they enjoy taken away from them by displacement.

 

[evilzorac]

This, this, so much this. My parents took me when I was a kid the year that Animal Kingdom opened, as well as for the 25th anniversary, back when Disney actually cared about their parks/guests. I always expected to take my kids to Disney World when they were of age. Two years ago, my Mother and I happened to go to Disney World (she had free air tickets to Orlando) and I had such a negative experience I vowed to never take my kids there. All the magic was lost, instead Disney World now is just some exhausting exercise in obsessive planning to ride the 2/3 interesting rides in each park. I felt as though I paid $1000's just to be let loose in a giant overcrowded gift shop.

I understand Disney's nostalgia/generational pull is HUGE, but if they don't fix things fast, I can see them losing an entire generation of American vacationers whom realize the magical Disney World they visited in their youth not only doesn't exist anymore, but is now worse for waaaay more money. Combine that with theme parks around the US (not just Universal Studios, which is the way better park at this point) upping their game year after year, I can see generations of Americans skipping Disney World. I know at least for myself and from the people I've talked to, they won't even consider Disney World until Avatar Land/Toy Story Land/Star Wars land are all completed. And even then, if their ticket prices rise substantially more in the interim, none of us would be able to afford it anyways.

Here is an example. My daughters are 12 & 10 and we have had WDW annuals for years, but stopped two years ago. It was my decision, I felt the $ vs value had eroded to a point that I had no desire to return. But last weekend I asked my youngest if she wanted to go to Disney for her tenth birthday and we could get new annuals (I missed going I guess lol)! She frowned and said, "No way Disney sucks there isn't anything new or cool there." I was really surprised, she did say that she may want to go back once avatar and or SW open but right now she wanted to go back to Uni. Her older sister agreed so guess I will be shelling out for another year of Uni annuals. So we went but at least we got to fly over some of the parks on a helo tour, very cool.

 

[dupac]

Well...looks like a fine time to return from my little hiatus. How y'all been?

I was gonna ask, "What did I miss?"...then this is the first thread I see.

So, prices going up. Not a surprise.

What worries me are the other rumblings I'm hearing. The ones that foreshadow statements like:

"I'm sorry sir. Your daily Magical Pass only allows you one ride on Tower of Terror per day. You should consider upgrading to the More Magical Pass which would give you up to three rides. It's only $49.99 more per day, per person."

A return to the days of ticket books! Then we could stop arguing if 7DMT is an E-ticket or not! Yay!

/sarcasm

 

[Travel Junkie]

Mouseplanet reported this in terms of Disneyland, but I would imagine this would be headed to WDW as well. Disneyland's price signs at the ticket booths are going digital in the near future.

That makes it a lot easier to change the prices to reflect the price for that day.

 

[Andrew C]

What worries me are the other rumblings I'm hearing. The ones that foreshadow statements like:

"I'm sorry sir. Your daily Magical Pass only allows you one ride on Tower of Terror per day. You should consider upgrading to the More Magical Pass which would give you up to three rides. It's only $49.99 more per day, per person."

I assume they are in the middle of some type of research to determine if this is the road they eventually want to go down?

 

[Disneyhead'71]

I get what you are saying, but don't quite agree with your speculation on how the market will mature and the assumptions made that capital investment will stagnate. There will still be a generation who grew up enjoying Disney because their parents enjoyed it, and they will bring their children, etc. But those are assumptions of course, and I have no access to the data I'd need to really predict if this trend is going to continue.

To your last point though, how far would Disney have to fall in 10 years to have their brand damaged from being the "most powerful brand in the world"?
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/trav...world-most-powerful-brand-20160202-story.html
They've done so much to strengthen their brand, and the brands of their acquisitions, that a massive domino chain of events would have to happen in order to damage it to the point of the general public snickering at it. I know that snickering is done at the company, mostly within the News and Rumors section of forums like these, but to say that the general public shares this is way too big of a leap for me to make.
*Note, I'm referring to Disney as a whole entity and not the Parks division. As long as Disney's brand stays strong, they will have plenty of intellectual capital to mine to keep their parks strong as well.

As long as the perception of the parks are "they haven't added a major E Ticket attraction to the MK in my college age daughter's lifetime and you need a 2nd mortgage on your house to actually go to WDW anyway." People will balk.