Star Wars Land Demand vs Capacity

[DISR]

So here is my thought: Toy Story Land is crowded, but demand will stabilize after the newness wears off and other attractions come on line. Pandora is an amazingly well done area. Even without the tie to the IP, anyone can appreciate what has been built there. Demand is still high and it would benefit from an expansion/additional attraction, but it can be enjoyed today with good planning.

Star Wars as an IP and land is in an entirely different category. It has 40+ years of history with a solid fan base across those years, and still growing. Demand for access to this land will never decline to a point where demand and capacity are balanced. Another attraction or two will not meet the demand or make the land equivalent in crowd volume to other areas of the parks. IMHO, a 5th gate is fantasy, given the overall infrastructure costs. The only reasonable answer I see is a larger scale version of the Universal Harry Potter model where multiple areas are somehow linked thematically to spread the crowds and add capacity. Even then, I think Star Wars will need to be on a much larger scale than the Universal/Islands of Adventure Harry Potter model.

Given the cost and design/construction timelines. Disney would be foolish not to have some rough ideas outlines for this eventuality. If they don't, they are really behind.

Am I overestimating the crowds/demand/endurance? Am I missing anything on the most likely solutions? It will be very interesting to see what crowds look like 6 month - 1 year after opening. I am not hopeful that delaying a visit will help in a really meaningful way with the crowds.

I did a search of lot of existing Star Wars threads/posts out there. I saw elements of this discussion in various places, but didn't see it specifically addressed from this aspect...forgive me if it has been covered or should be merged into another thread.

 

[wdwmagic]

I think the solution will basically be to attempt to operate the land in a sustained over-demand mode, similar to the early days at Pandora - but likely that way for months or years.

And secondly there will be hard ticketed events, such as Galaxy's Edge After Dark, and early morning access via EMH for resort guests.

 

[TongaToast21]

I think the solution will basically be to attempt to operate the land in a sustained over-demand mode, similar to the early days at Pandora - but likely that way for months or years.

And secondly there will be hard ticketed events, such as Galaxy's Edge After Dark, and early morning access via EMH for resort guests.

GE After Dark is confirmed?

 

[nickys]

I think the solution will basically be to attempt to operate the land in a sustained over-demand mode, similar to the early days at Pandora - but likely that way for months or years.

And secondly there will be hard ticketed events, such as Galaxy's Edge After Dark, and early morning access via EMH for resort guests.

And of course those paid FPs ........

 

[HoustonHorn]

I know nobody wants to hear this (as evidenced by currently 27-page thread on the new $6 charge for grocery delivery), but my thoughts on SWGE have always been that a hard-ticket entry would be both warranted and would be about the only way to curb the sure-to-be-insane demand for the area. Whether that means a paid EMM or After Dark, paid FP, or even just a separate fee for access to the land (like a gate-within-a-gate).

As the OP mentioned, SW has a 40-year fanbase, and there are a ton of die-hards that already spend hundreds or thousands of dollars on their passion. Then you have the Disney folks, and we all know how we can be. Now put those two fanbases together.

I think that Disney would still face capacity issues even if they made access to SWGE an extra $100 on top of your ticket to enter MGM. (I mean, there are folks who pay for a dessert party on top of a fee to go to MVMCP or MNSSHP (NOT JUDGING HOW ANYONE SPENDS THEIR DISPOSABLE INCOME), so do you think folks won't pay more to enter an immersive land within a park?) And I think they could fetch those kind of prices for months. And while plenty of folks would balk at paying that kind of price, there are plenty who would love to do so if it meant lower crowds.

As it stands today, DL visitors are getting 4 hour reservations for the land. Even if they "only" have 2 hours to queue and ride the Falcon, that leaves just 2 hours for the multitude of shops (including the experiences at Savi's and Droid Depot), the milk stand, the limited capacity bar, and just to wander the land. We'll see how much of a cluster that is, then see what TDO will do for the MGM version.

 

[Heppenheimer]

If the construction of Galaxy's Edge was financed in the traditional fashion (corporate bonds), I'm guessing Disney's first priority is going to be making sure the whole enterprise will generate a large enough profit to pay those bondholders when they come due. Disney got badly burned on this issue in the 90s with California Adventure and what was then known as Eurodisneyland. Getting people in and emptying their wallets is probably their first goal.

 

[Shouldigo12]

I know nobody wants to hear this (as evidenced by currently 27-page thread on the new $6 charge for grocery delivery), but my thoughts on SWGE have always been that a hard-ticket entry would be both warranted and would be about the only way to curb the sure-to-be-insane demand for the area. Whether that means a paid EMM or After Dark, paid FP, or even just a separate fee for access to the land (like a gate-within-a-gate).

As the OP mentioned, SW has a 40-year fanbase, and there are a ton of die-hards that already spend hundreds or thousands of dollars on their passion. Then you have the Disney folks, and we all know how we can be. Now put those two fanbases together.

I think that Disney would still face capacity issues even if they made access to SWGE an extra $100 on top of your ticket to enter MGM. (I mean, there are folks who pay for a dessert party on top of a fee to go to MVMCP or MNSSHP (NOT JUDGING HOW ANYONE SPENDS THEIR DISPOSABLE INCOME), so do you think folks won't pay more to enter an immersive land within a park?) And I think they could fetch those kind of prices for months. And while plenty of folks would balk at paying that kind of price, there are plenty who would love to do so if it meant lower crowds.

As it stands today, DL visitors are getting 4 hour reservations for the land. Even if they "only" have 2 hours to queue and ride the Falcon, that leaves just 2 hours for the multitude of shops (including the experiences at Savi's and Droid Depot), the milk stand, the limited capacity bar, and just to wander the land. We'll see how much of a cluster that is, then see what TDO will do for the MGM version.

I think too many people would be upset over an extra charge to get into the land, but if they could find a way to make an all day (AKA not a party or EH ticket) ticket that let you into the Star Wars land but not the rest of the park work, I think some people would be into that. Especially the Star Wars fans who aren't into Disney. Of course that would probably just make that land even crazier, but I'm not sure if anything is going to help those crowds anyway haha. Like you said, there's going to be two rapid fan bases wanting to try this place out. A ticket just for the Star Wars land might at least help keep crowding out from the rest of the park.
Edit: Just so I'm clear, I'm talking about Disney offering a ticket that only lets you in to the Star Wars land for a lower price, and a ticket that lets you into the whole park with SW included. I doubt it would happen for a variety if reasons, though.

 

[SirWillow]

I believe that there are already plans being put in place for large expansion of SWGE. Personally I'd be rather shocked if there weren't.

In my mind, this is the one IP that Disney could have easily turned into another separate gate, though I totally understand why they didn't.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

I believe that there are already plans being put in place for large expansion of SWGE. Personally I'd be rather shocked if there weren't.

In my mind, this is the one IP that Disney could have easily turned into another separate gate, though I totally understand why they didn't.

I'd assume that an expansion would take it into the Muppet's area and connect it with Star Tours (which would make sense). Possibly could take it all the way to Indiana Jones which would give it about 30% of the park.

 

[DISR]

I'd assume that an expansion would take it into the Muppet's area and connect it with Star Tours (which would make sense). Possibly could take it all the way to Indiana Jones which would give it about 30% of the park.

Doing my very amateur map analysis, that would make the most sense and is the easiest solution. One issue is the crowds still go into one continuous area. It would also eliminate three existing, high capacity attractions at a time when the park is really going to need them. I don't know if there is a piece of buildable ground that could be connected using the SW equivalent of the Hogawarts express, but IMO, that would be one of the better solutions to disperse the crowds a bit. We all want more/better attractions/parks, but oddly we seem to be seeing situations where great new lands or attractions add 10% more capacity, but increases demand/attendance by +20%. Part of the enjoyment of being in a well-themed area is to enjoy the atmosphere and appreciate the details. It is hard to imagine that will happen if SWGE crowds resemble the mass of people center stage at a concert. I'm a fan of the upcharge events (morning and/or after hours), but it seems they would have to offer them nearly every day to make a dent in the demand. I'm sure they will be part of the mix in some form though.

 

[Raineman]

I have been a big fan of Star Wars for well over 35 years-but if there is a separate charge for SW:GE or paid FPs for it, I will pass. If SW:GE was the 5th gate, that is a different story, but there is no way that I am paying to get into a land at an existing park. Plus, this could be a slippery slope-imagine paying to go to MK, and having to pay extra to go to Frontierland, Liberty Square, Fantasyland, etc. That would be the breaking point for me as far as visiting WDW, and that's saying alot.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

I don't know if there is a piece of buildable ground that could be connected using the SW equivalent of the Hogawarts express, but IMO, that would be one of the better solutions to disperse the crowds a bit.

I had an idea about this that I posted before. It is rather controversial due to it impacting existing "legacy" attractions. But here goes.

As EPCOT slowly morphs into IPCOT and more IP begin to be added, it would make sense to rebrand/refurb/make-over/rebuild Spaceship Earth into the Death Star. For the record I'm a big SSE fan. Love dark rides, love the history aspect of it. But I'm looking at this as what would make sense for the Star Wars IP and create a type of experience similar to what Universal has with Hogwarts.

EPCOT would house "The Empire" (The bad). Complete with Death Star, and also taking over the area currently occupied by Nemo (and possibly up to and/or including The Land). DHS would house "The Rebellion/The Resistance" (The good)

Some type of transportation option could then link these two areas. Be it a section of Gondola line (with the Gondola modeled after a tie fighter - with some type of "show" like Hogwarts), or other themed option.

The detractors say not to mess with EPCOT, they also are quick to point out the cost involved, and what they feel is an ROI case that would not make sense. I do think it should be an idea that should be explored.

 

[DISR]

I have been a big fan of Star Wars for well over 35 years-but if there is a separate charge for SW:GE or paid FPs for it, I will pass. If SW:GE was the 5th gate, that is a different story, but there is no way that I am paying to get into a land at an existing park. Plus, this could be a slippery slope-imagine paying to go to MK, and having to pay extra to go to Frontierland, Liberty Square, Fantasyland, etc. That would be the breaking point for me as far as visiting WDW, and that's saying alot.

I don't think there will ever be a time when access to the SWGE won't be included in your DHS ticket. I do think it is likely that crowds will be such that you do not enjoy or get much from your visit experience. Capacity controlled events like Early Morning Magic seem to be the best hope of experiencing the area without crushing crowds. The interesting question will be how Disney balances the demand for upcharge events with general access. I don't really think current MK/DHS EMM affects the general park-goer at all. Disney After Hours is fairly limited in impact. No matter when SWGE upcharge events occur, they will be taking up time when the park could be packed with non-upcharge guests. Before they add these events, I am assuming they will have extended park hours for some period of time to cope with the initial demand surge.

 

[Disstevefan1]

So here is my thought: Toy Story Land is crowded, but demand will stabilize after the newness wears off and other attractions come on line. Pandora is an amazingly well done area. Even without the tie to the IP, anyone can appreciate what has been built there. Demand is still high and it would benefit from an expansion/additional attraction, but it can be enjoyed today with good planning.

Star Wars as an IP and land is in an entirely different category. It has 40+ years of history with a solid fan base across those years, and still growing. Demand for access to this land will never decline to a point where demand and capacity are balanced. Another attraction or two will not meet the demand or make the land equivalent in crowd volume to other areas of the parks. IMHO, a 5th gate is fantasy, given the overall infrastructure costs. The only reasonable answer I see is a larger scale version of the Universal Harry Potter model where multiple areas are somehow linked thematically to spread the crowds and add capacity. Even then, I think Star Wars will need to be on a much larger scale than the Universal/Islands of Adventure Harry Potter model.

Given the cost and design/construction timelines. Disney would be foolish not to have some rough ideas outlines for this eventuality. If they don't, they are really behind.

Am I overestimating the crowds/demand/endurance? Am I missing anything on the most likely solutions? It will be very interesting to see what crowds look like 6 month - 1 year after opening. I am not hopeful that delaying a visit will help in a really meaningful way with the crowds.

I did a search of lot of existing Star Wars threads/posts out there. I saw elements of this discussion in various places, but didn't see it specifically addressed from this aspect...forgive me if it has been covered or should be merged into another thread.

I do not think you are overestimating the crowds/demand/endurance we will see at GE. I envision queues to get INTO GE snaking through DHS. Its gonna be a mess. I am looking forward to the YouTube reports of the first week and Disneyland and WDW

 

[Fable McCloud]

I've got a feeling it's going to look like the lines that snake through the mall when the newsest smart phones release....

a 3 hour wait just to get into SW:GE, then 5 hour waits for each attraction.

There won't be enough merchandise to keep up with demand, either. A lot of people didn't even like Avatar, but bought all the expensive merch because it was new/cool/could be resold at double the retail online, etc...

I know my husband and I are planning on taking a trip in 2021 for the 50th if we can afford it, and he's thinking it'll still be nuts years from now.

 

[danlb_2000]

I've got a feeling it's going to look like the lines that snake through the mall when the newsest smart phones release....

a 3 hour wait just to get into SW:GE, then 5 hour waits for each attraction.

There won't be enough merchandise to keep up with demand, either. A lot of people didn't even like Avatar, but bought all the expensive merch because it was new/cool/could be resold at double the retail online, etc...

I know my husband and I are planning on taking a trip in 2021 for the 50th if we can afford it, and he's thinking it'll still be nuts years from now.

@marni1971 mentioned that something will be put in place at DHS so there will not be a need for people to line up to get into the land.

 

[danlb_2000]

I'd assume that an expansion would take it into the Muppet's area and connect it with Star Tours (which would make sense). Possibly could take it all the way to Indiana Jones which would give it about 30% of the park.

Initial expansion pad is here:

 

[JIMINYCR]

Right from the start we all knew what they were putting in for SW wasnt going to be enough. Anyone that had seen the crowds that flocked in for HP, FoP, and others in the past could predict the enormous draw this major fan based land would bring. I dont think Disney is ready for whats to come. It will be like something wev e never seen before in terms of guest demand and guest frustration when they wait or cant get in. Weve dreamt about another park.... well this should have been. Theres so much material they could have drawn from that would have blown all other parks away.

 

[marni1971]

Initial expansion pad is here:

View attachment 367513

If I may, it’s a bit bigger than that:

 

[larryz]

I've got a feeling it's going to look like the lines that snake through the mall when the newsest smart phones release....

a 3 hour wait just to get into SW:GE, then 5 hour waits for each attraction.

There won't be enough merchandise to keep up with demand, either. A lot of people didn't even like Avatar, but bought all the expensive merch because it was new/cool/could be resold at double the retail online, etc...

I know my husband and I are planning on taking a trip in 2021 for the 50th if we can afford it, and he's thinking it'll still be nuts years from now.

If they're booking DLR's SW:GE for four-hour reservation blocks, I don't see anyone getting in unless they're within 100 yards of the opening gates at 5:00 am.*

*Excepting those who pay for access opportunities.