"Disney’s remarks mirror the numbers Hasbro reported for its partner brands. Star Wars merchandise sales have been declining ever since October 2016 (remember that Disney’s fiscal year ends in September).
But not only merchandise seems to be affected, since Star Wars book sales and comic book sales are also down. So Star Wars as a whole seems to be in decline at the moment.
Now, it’s impossible to say how much of the revenue and ratings decline is due to decreasing Star Wars merchandise and book sales, Disney has an expansive list of licensed products out there.
But Disney’s fiscal year 2018 saw three major Star Wars releases,
Battlefront II,
The Last Jedi and
Solo. That overall
Consumer Products & Interactive revenue and earnings are down nevertheless should be reason to be worried for Disney. We’ve never had as much Star Wars content as in that period and if Star Wars was still a powerhouse revenue should have increased, especially given Marvel’s strong performance. But all signs we have say that 2018 was a very bad year for Star Wars merchandise and Disney sees this as decreased revenue from licensing, books and games.
And to add insult to injury Disney doesn’t mention
Solo – A Star Wars Story by name even once in its report. When they talk about significant studio releases
The Last Jedi is listed among “other significant titles”, but Marvel is mentioned first and foremost when Disney talks about increased revenue for their Studio Entertainment segment."
http://www.jeditemplearchives.com/2019-01-14-disneys-2018-annual-report-sees-star-wars-in-decline/
Additionally, note that Star Wars merchandise revenue does not equate profits. Hasbro has been very vocal in noting that Star Wars declines in sales have hurt them badly, and they get a significant portion of the revenues -- not just Disney. That's not considering the retail chains, the supply chains, the cost or production, etc.
Since that is your point, I think you're accurate.
Those "real, scientific" surveys don't exist. The only thing they did with Last Jedi even close to that is the CinemaScore, which is often manipulated within the industry. TLJ was bludgeoned on every single site where fans could leave reviews, and the MetaCritic audience score is a miserable 4.4.
https://www.metacritic.com/movie/star-wars-episode-viii---the-last-jedi