Star Wars Galaxy's Edge First Impact on Stock

[mikejs78]

Re: APs, I’ve said that repeatedly. And as a creative consultant/analyst — and a very successful one, too — I realize my posts are going to be full of pros and cons, and I caution against cherry-picking the cons and ignoring the larger message.

Bottom line: SWGE has creative issues that the company itself has recognized, even if some fans do not, but the overall attendance issues were due to AP blackouts and overpriced day tickets—facts that Iger stated in his call.

As @MisterPenguin and I have pointed out, low-level APs are blocked every summer, and tourists have been visiting DL long before SWGE. Disney knows what attendance to expect for DL itself, regardless of SWGE. Those numbers didn’t materialize in California this year, and the company suspects that was due to fears of SW crowds, expensive tickets, and jacked-up hotel rates.

That would have little long-term bearing on the stock price, and Wall Street typically overreacts, and of course the stock would rebound. It’s certainly not a case for a doom-and-gloom scenario.

Now if we REALLY want to start some controversy, we could discuss how Disney+ isn’t launching with the full library of content the public expected, and how the Hulu/ESPN/Disney+ package is supposed to offset the disappointment.

Very on point. Yes, low-level APs have always been blocked out but this is the first year the mid-level APs were blocked out. Summer attendance was up according to Iger for paid day-tickets...

I've argued that the land is great, well designed, and slated for long-term success. There are definately some creative issues as you've pointed out, but in my opinion they fall in the realm of very fixable issues (i.e. not a systemic problem, but nothing that can't be fixed by adding back some of the cuts, entertainment, more characters, etc.. Making it feel like a real, lived-in place)... What I object to is the "sky is falling" mentality, the idea that somehow this is so bad that TWDC is doomed, and that Disney killed Star Wars and the public no longer cares about.

Disney is fine, the stock will be fine. They'll address the issues and tweak Galaxy's Edge, and Disney+ (despite the content issues at launch) will still do very well its first year.

 

[tirian]

Very on point. Yes, low-level APs have always been blocked out but this is the first year the mid-level APs were blocked out. Summer attendance was up according to Iger for paid day-tickets...

I've argued that the land is great, well designed, and slated for long-term success. There are definately some creative issues as you've pointed out, but in my opinion they fall in the realm of very fixable issues (i.e. not a systemic problem, but nothing that can't be fixed by adding back some of the cuts, entertainment, more characters, etc.. Making it feel like a real, lived-in place)... What I object to is the "sky is falling" mentality, the idea that somehow this is so bad that TWDC is doomed, and that Disney killed Star Wars and the public no longer cares about.

Disney is fine, the stock will be fine. They'll address the issues and tweak Galaxy's Edge, and Disney+ (despite the content issues at launch) will still do very well its first year.

Yep to all. As a fan, I would be more concerned about Chapek’s lack of creative vision than the health of the overall company. The company is fine.

The decisions coming to Epcot and the MK are concerning for long-term Disney fans who appreciate Walt and his legacy, and who admire the original WDI. But the company will keep printing money, anyway. (And that’s a painful thought for those of us who love classic Disney.)

 

[MisterPenguin]

If you think this is fun, check out online forums that are more DL-centric. They’re convinced the company is going to collapse based on SWGE.

And Barrons didn't even blame the missed target on SWL, but instead on Fox media acquisition issues. In fact, one of the reasons given for recommending Disney stock (a 'buy') is the belief that in the long run SWL will do very well. A direct refutation of this whole thread's thesis, @WDW Pro.

Right now, on this Friday, Dis's stock is higher than it was Monday before the 3Q report of all that "bad news."

 

[WDW Pro]

And Barrons didn't even blame the missed target on SWL, but instead on Fox media acquisition issues. In fact, one of the reasons given for recommending Disney stock (a 'buy') is the belief that in the long run SWL will do very well. A direct refutation of this whole thread's thesis, @WDW Pro.

Right now, on this Friday, Dis's stock is higher than it was Monday before the 3Q report of all that "bad news."

It was $141.94 before the earnings report. It dropped to $133.56. It is now $139.08. It has never made it back to where it was. If this level of math is more than you can handle, it stands to reason that the issues at hand underlying the stock might be as well.

 

[mikejs78]

It was $141.94 before the earnings report. It dropped to $133.56. It is now $139.08. It has never made it back to where it was. If this level of math is more than you can handle, it stands to reason that the issues at hand underlying the stock might be as well.

Are you really that clueless when it comes to how the stock market works?

 

[MisterPenguin]

It was $141.94 before the earnings report. It dropped to $133.56. It is now $139.08. It has never made it back to where it was. If this level of math is more than you can handle, it stands to reason that the issues at hand underlying the stock might be as well.

Your narrative has failed.

 

[WDW Pro]

Your narrative has failed.

The fact that you and a couple of trolls think I have a "narrative" is odd. I reported that the stock would go down soon because of Domestic Park attendance related to SWGE. A week later, this occurred, with Iger admitting attendance was lower, and sites like Bloomberg opining that park attendance had an impact.

I'm inclined to ignore you and about two others going forward. I don't have the time or desire to debate with you about things you are clearly wrong about regularly. It's not an efficient use of my time.

 

[mikejs78]

The fact that you and a couple of trolls think I have a "narrative" is odd. I reported that the stock would go down soon because of Domestic Park attendance related to SWGE. A week later, this occurred, with Iger admitting attendance was lower, and sites like Bloomberg opining that park attendance had an impact.

I'm inclined to ignore you and about two others going forward. I don't have the time or desire to debate with you about things you are clearly wrong about regularly. It's not an efficient use of my time.

Except the stock hasn't really gone down. The day before the earnings call, the stock closed at $138.32, and it closed the week at $138.53. It dipped a little, has since recovered, and is now higher than it was the day before the earnings call. Six months ago it was at $109.44.

Anyone who knows anything about the stock market knows that one-day swings can't be used as any indicative measure of a stock's health. Long-term trends are what matters. Even if investors were really concerned about Disney after the earnings, the stock would have dropped like it did (or more), and stayed in that range. But the last two days have shown gains on the stock, taking it back to its beginning of the week (before earnings) levels.

Single-day swings immediately after earnings are released almost never tell the story. They are a gut reaction to the headline "met expectations", "exceeded expectations", or "did not meet expectations". Then, after the initial knee-jerk reaction, investors start to delve into the details and take the time to analyze the report. The few days to a week or so after the dust settles from an earnings report are usually more indicative of how Wall Street feels about a particular company than the day after (barring some major market-wide sell-off or something). Any investor or financial planner worth their salt will tell you the exact same thing.

So it's safe to say at this point that the Q3 earnings call had no statistically significant impact on the stock. The fact that you're pushing the idea that the stock will go down soon, and it did, and therefore you were right, is the real trollish behavior. I can predict that Disney stock will go up soon. I can also predict it will go down soon. That's how the market works, it happens every single day. Stocks are bumpy. A one-day drop (or rise) doesn't prove a single thing.

 

[WDW Pro]

Except the stock hasn't really gone down. The day before the earnings call, the stock closed at $138.32, and it closed the week at $138.53. It dipped a little, has since recovered, and is now higher than it was the day before the earnings call. Six months ago it was at $109.44.

Anyone who knows anything about the stock market knows that one-day swings can't be used as any indicative measure of a stock's health. Long-term trends are what matters. Even if investors were really concerned about Disney after the earnings, the stock would have dropped like it did (or more), and stayed in that range. But the last two days have shown gains on the stock, taking it back to its beginning of the week (before earnings) levels.

Single-day swings immediately after earnings are released almost never tell the story. They are a gut reaction to the headline "met expectations", "exceeded expectations", or "did not meet expectations". Then, after the initial knee-jerk reaction, investors start to delve into the details and take the time to analyze the report. The few days to a week or so after the dust settles from an earnings report are usually more indicative of how Wall Street feels about a particular company than the day after (barring some major market-wide sell-off or something). Any investor or financial planner worth their salt will tell you the exact same thing.

So it's safe to say at this point that the Q3 earnings call had no statistically significant impact on the stock. The fact that you're pushing the idea that the stock will go down soon, and it did, and therefore you were right, is the real trollish behavior. I can predict that Disney stock will go up soon. I can also predict it will go down soon. That's how the market works, it happens every single day. Stocks are bumpy. A one-day drop (or rise) doesn't prove a single thing.

This is getting asinine. Whatever you need to be right, have at it. The financial publications were all wrong, I didn't accurately relay what would occur a week later, and the stock didn't drop 5% on a missed earning target. But you're in that small group of posters I no longer desire to interact with... I don't think you operate in the reality most people do.

 

[mikejs78]

This is getting asinine. Whatever you need to be right, have at it. The financial publications were all wrong, I didn't accurately relay what would occur a week later, and the stock didn't drop 5% on a missed earning target. But you're in that small group of posters I no longer desire to interact with... I don't think you operate in the reality most people do.

Of course the stop dropped 5% for one day on a missed earning target. Then the press as usual overreacted. And then the market got sane and the stock rebounded. This has nothing to do with me being right or not - but rather that a one day swing in either direction doesn't matter at all no matter what company it is - Disney or not.

Again, you really don't understand the stock market and how it works. You have some good insights into Disney that I enjoy reading (most of the time) - stick to those. Leave the market analysis to those who actually understand it.

 

[WDW Pro]

Disneyland's Star Wars flops, now employees getting hours cut: source

Disneyland cuts employee hours in wake of Star Wars land flop.

www.google.com

More info on how badly Galaxy's Edge is performing, along with some of the uglier parts of Close the Gap initiative manifesting.

 

[MisterPenguin]

Disneyland's Star Wars flops, now employees getting hours cut: source

Disneyland cuts employee hours in wake of Star Wars land flop.

www.google.com

More info on how badly Galaxy's Edge is performing, along with some of the uglier parts of Close the Gap initiative manifesting.

Amidst Period of Record Expansion for Walt Disney World Resort, Star Wars: Galaxy’s Edge Creates More Than 7,000 Jobs for Local Community

 

[It Is What It Is]

When you look up the definition of the word flop and then read the article, wouldn't you say that headline was clickbait?

 

[BrianLo]

There is no institutional memory. Hogsmeade in Hollywood went through the exact same growing pains in its opening summer.