Spirited Spring Break News, Observations & Thoughts ...

jlsHouston

Well-Known Member
LoL. I saw the praise so I unblocked and read.

You are silly . You need to re read his posts. The discussions he posts are about value and good business practices and long term strategies for profits that will sustain P&R for decades to come. It has nothing to do with bashing unless analysis and critique is defined as bashing.
I have to get to bed. Tomorrow is Wednesday and I have had the most unprofitable week. I wish I had brand following and I could just raise my profits and put some cash in the account right now
 

ParentsOf4

Well-Known Member
@ParentsOf4 weren't you on these boards, just a year ago, freaked out by all things Magic Band? One of the many assuming that WDW would do exactly what you propose? Now that they've proven to follow their promises with MM+, you've hopped the fence and now saying they aren't using it to the best of their ability? (I remember this, because I briefly blocked you for that and your DVC bashing, but unblocked you for your insightful posts on other topics and solid interpretation of the data)

I agree with your thoughts though, as a purely business minded decision, WDW should do more to protect their occupancy and provide more benefits to those who stay on-site to lock them in.
There's a difference between what I want WDW to do as a customer vs. what WDW should do as a business. :)

As a customer, I'm looking forward to the free theme parks tickets. ;)
 

ParentsOf4

Well-Known Member
I agree it is not the majority of vacationers, but I think there are a significant number of WDW guests that decide less than 90 days out they are going to pay a visit. And the percent that frequents WDW on "spur" of the moment planning may actually have opted to book onsite rather than offsite or the Dolphin/Swan just for the FP+ advantage. It is a motivator, that fear you will not get to see experience your favorite attractions without 120 minute wait times.
I think 2 things jumped hotel occupancy.
I think there was a very small increase in guests choosing to stay onsite rather than offsite for FP+ opportunity.
I think Disney saw an increase in occupancy last quarter because of the freaking ice age winter we all just went through. By January everybody up north had had enough of artic temps and were making southbound plans if possible. Even those along the I-40 and I-20 corridor were ready for sun and warmth.
View attachment 52945

Florida was looking pretty good to everybody in blue and purple...
Back in the old days, WDW vacationers used to book 6 months or more out. More recently, that period has been reduced. I don't remember when but this was discussed at one of the investor calls some years ago. (By the way, Disney is not the only vacation destination to notice this trend.) With the advent of the Internet, busier schedules at home, and constantly changing airfares, vacationers have gotten into the habit of planning vacations fewer months in advance than they once did.

This year's arctic blast might explain why WDW and Uni theme park attendance was relatively strong for the quarter despite some major additions coming this summer. It doesn't necessarily explain why more guests stayed onsite.

Remember, people can book a good offsite room for $80/night or a WDW Moderate Resort for $200/night. That's a big price difference that needs to be overcome in the minds of vacationers. Disney needs to drive value into its hotels to justify its price. It appears that the advantage offered last quarter by MyMagic+ helped justify the cost differential in the minds of many vacationers.

Using some simple numbers, a 6% increase in occupancy based on roughly 2.3M available room nights at WDW for the quarter equates to an additional 140,000 room nights. I realize the 7-day vacation is practically dead in America but using that as a number, this means roughly that an additional 20,000 families opted to stay onsite for the quarter. In the scheme of things, 20,000 families is not a huge number for Disney.

What is a huge number for Disney is that rather than spend that money elsewhere at another hotel, those families spent all of it at a WDW hotel; a big win for Disney.

I went waltzing through some of the old 10K and 10Q filings. A 6% jump in occupancy is unparalleled. Something highly unusual happened in 2Q2014
 
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ParentsOf4

Well-Known Member
Could this actually be code for losing vacation days to Uni and other attractions, because with MYW tickets shorter stays can mean much larger average ticket prices?
"Higher average ticket prices" is something Disney reports pretty much every quarter, even before the opening of WWOHP.

In recent years, the trend has been to decouple ticket prices from cost and charge "whatever the market will bear" or, as Iger likes to call it, price leveraging. It's a completely valid business strategy for non-essential goods & services as long the total number of sales doesn't decline too much.

In recent years, WDW attendance has been resilient to the higher prices.

Last quarter's 4% increase in Per Capita Guest Spending (PCGS) (i.e. money spent per person at the theme parks) is half of what it has been averaging in recent years. The previous low since 2010 was 6%. It's increased by double-digits some quarters.

Theme park prices have increased by more than double the 4% since last's year's second quarter. Therefore, the very small PCGS number suggests that guests are starting to buy less food, beverages, and merchandise at the theme parks.

It might be an indication that Disney needs to start looking for a strategy other than "whatever the market will bear".
 
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Remember, people can book a good offsite room for $80/night or a WDW Moderate Resort for $200/night. That's a big price difference

Last year I stayed 21 nights at POR figuring that the free dining would be worth the extra room price.

After 21 days of QS dining, most days 3 meals a day because we spent 7 days at Uni, SW and BGT, I now never want the restrictions of the dining plan again. I'll stay off site and eat where I want.

If we had been allowed to go Table Service and pay the difference I would have been a lot happier. Although I wouldn't have minded eating at Sunshine Seasons every day.

The food at POR was pretty good but with 3 kids wanting different foods from different counters it took forever to get served.

It would take some big price reductions and not just a few FP+ to make me stay on site again.
 

marni1971

Park History nut
Premium Member
Just because you see a table that's empty, doesn't mean it's ready to be sat right away. You also have to take into consideration timing for servers...you don't want them to have 2-3 tables sit at the exact same time, your meal would be ruined!
Having been "squeezed" into Sci Fi to find it 20% full kind of says otherwise.

Would it be fair to say its a bit of both?
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Having been "squeezed" into Sci Fi to find it 20% full kind of says otherwise.

Would it be fair to say its a bit of both?

I think it's some of both. I wonder if we will see less empty seats now that they implemented the charge for missing an ADR. I know I missed a few in my day.
 

PhotoDave219

Well-Known Member
Working in the restaurant industry, that is very common to see a few empty tables here and there as incoming reservations are being considered to those guests coming in.

Just because you see a table that's empty, doesn't mean it's ready to be sat right away. You also have to take into consideration timing for servers...you don't want them to have 2-3 tables sit at the exact same time, your meal would be ruined!

If it was a handful of tables I would agree with you.

If it's 10? That's different.
 

Funmeister

Well-Known Member
Having been "squeezed" into Sci Fi to find it 20% full kind of says otherwise.

Would it be fair to say its a bit of both?

There were times when guests would try to attempt to book multiple restaurants on property so they could decide which one to dine at later on and not cancel the other reservations/priority seating. I told them we could not do that and refused to do it for them. People would be amazed how much guests abuse(d) the system because they were lazy or indecisive.
 

PhotoDave219

Well-Known Member
You'd hope so. They so desperately need to move away from discounts for this, free for that. It is an unsustainable model. But they've possibly gone too far down the road now.

So in an attempt to make the short term look better, they screwed up the long term.

Lovely.

It can be fixed but you're going to need management that is willing to build an audience through investing rather than making their numbers look good.
 

Crazydisneyfanluke

Well-Known Member
You'd hope so. They so desperately need to move away from discounts for this, free for that. It is an unsustainable model. But they've possibly gone too far down the road now.
Why don't they lower the prices at certain locations and get rid of the discounts. People would then choose to actually spend the money because they are getting a good deal for the food.
But it wont happen.
 

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