Spirited News, Observations & Thoughts Tres

[Pixiedustmaker]

BTW, got an anonymous note (well, from someone I don't know) overnight saying the new Star Wars attraction will be a reskinned version of the Tron lightcycle coaster that is replacing Space Mountain on Shanghai's opening day menu. I don't usually run with rumors from strangers, but I do think this one may have merit.

Now ... do I really want to start battling about this being a total reaction to UNI/IOA and a park in attendance free fall?

No doubt WDI is looking at using the lightcycle coaster system for a different attraction.

DHS doesn't seem to be anywhere near free fall.

 

[Cody5242]

So was the article from Theme Park Insider the leak or is something else the Spirit said because I thought the Theme Park Insider article was bogus

 

[Pixiedustmaker]

Attendance is another issue that always comes up and folks point to the TEA numbers as 'the bible' ... the problem is that like many Bibles, it is a work crafted by men and its numbers are suspect at best, outright lies at worst.

During the company's conference call announcing first-quarter results, Disney CEO Bob Iger said: "Walt Disney World and Disneyland Resort both set new attendance records for the quarter."

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/business/2013/06/01/disney-theme-park-stocks/2343753/

WDW is doing quite well, 'nough said.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

No doubt WDI is looking at using the lightcycle coaster system for a different attraction.

DHS doesn't seem to be anywhere near free fall.

TEA estimates, according to Spirit and Phenix, are inaccurate and the issue too is that folks are spending less time and money at DHS.

 

[Pixiedustmaker]

TEA estimates, according to Spirit and Phenix, are inaccurate and the issue too is that folks are spending less time and money at DHS.

I guess if you want to whip up fan angst for new offering at DHS you'll claim the numbers aren't true. WDW's broke an attendance record, silly to assume that DHS numbers aren't on the up like TEA reported. Or maybe DHS is down and the rest of the resort is up even more? Kinda far fetched.

Or maybe Iger is lying just so that he won't lose face, though he could get in legal trouble regarding misleading shareholders.

I think the bloggers that hate on Disney (ostensibly to justify more upkeep and new rides) are really flummoxed that WDW didn't slide in the face of competition in Orlando, but is prospering.

 

[Pixiedustmaker]

So was the article from Theme Park Insider the leak or is something else the Spirit said because I thought the Theme Park Insider article was bogus

The thread discussing said article was closed. I personally think that article was 100% bogus garbage. Sounds crazy to say that DHS is getting Carsland, StarWarsland, Pixar rides . . . yeah right. Streets of America is pretty popular when they put up the Osbourne Lights, fans would be apoplectic if they took these out, hence not much room for Carsland there, unless they build out into the parking lot.

 

[Mister Boo]

I guess if you want to whip up fan angst for new offering at DHS you'll claim the numbers aren't true. WDW's broke an attendance record, silly to assume that DHS numbers aren't on the up like TEA reported. Or maybe DHS is down and the rest of the resort is up even more? Kinda far fetched.

Or maybe Iger is lying just so that he won't lose face, though he could get in legal trouble regarding misleading shareholders.

I think the bloggers that hate on Disney (ostensibly to justify more upkeep and new rides) are really flummoxed that WDW didn't slide in the face of competition in Orlando, but is prospering.

If you think DHS is, by any definition, prospering right now, you probably deserve what TDO is serving you. Come. On. It's a shambles, guests are unhappy, and it's a dead zone outside of two or three attractions like 75% of the time

 

[asianway]

The thread discussing said article was closed. I personally think that article was 100% bogus garbage. Sounds crazy to say that DHS is getting Carsland, StarWarsland, Pixar rides . . . yeah right. Streets of America is pretty popular when they put up the Osbourne Lights, fans would be apoplectic if they took these out, hence not much room for Carsland there, unless they build out into the parking lot.

While the lights are pretty, they don't justify saving a deserted ghost town the other 10 months of the year. It was nice that they saved them after lma opened but they made more sense on the residential street - sad to see them go, but the streets haven't justified their existence since opening to pedestrians, what, 20 years ago?

 

[the.dreamfinder]

I guess if you want to whip up fan angst for new offering at DHS you'll claim the numbers aren't true. WDW's broke an attendance record, silly to assume that DHS numbers aren't on the up like TEA reported. Or maybe DHS is down and the rest of the resort is up even more? Kinda far fetched.

Or maybe Iger is lying just so that he won't lose face, though he could get in legal trouble regarding misleading shareholders.

I think the bloggers that hate on Disney (ostensibly to justify more upkeep and new rides) are really flummoxed that WDW didn't slide in the face of competition in Orlando, but is prospering.

They are not official numbers, they are estimates. You still ignored my point that guests are spending less time and money at DHS. Also we don't hate Disney, we're just calling out their management for abandoning the standards and practices that they held themselves to that made them successful.

 

[Pixiedustmaker]

If you think DHS is, by any definition, prospering right now, you probably deserve what TDO is serving you. Come. On. It's a shambles, guests are unhappy, and it's a dead zone outside of two or three attractions like 75% of the time

I don't disagree that it would be nice if DHS had a new coat of paint, more attractions . . . doesn't change the fact that DHS is seeing more business, as is WDW as a whole. I don't think distorted the facts serves any purpose. If fans are people who vote with their feet then at face value, your assertion would be in error.

 

[Pixiedustmaker]

While the lights are pretty, they don't justify saving a deserted ghost town the other 10 months of the year. It was nice that they saved them after lma opened but they made more sense on the residential street - sad to see them go, but the streets haven't justified their existence since opening to pedestrians, what, 20 years ago?

Some guests travel to DHS specifically for the Osbourne Lights, and you'd have a lot of unhappy people if they discontinued them. The lights were changed in 2011 . . . doubt they are going anywhere for a while. Especially since the control systems and everything is setup for DHS.

 

[Pixiedustmaker]

They are not official numbers, they are estimates. You still ignored my point that guests are spending less time and money at DHS. Also we don't hate Disney, we're just calling out their management for abandoning the standards and practices that they held themselves to that made them successful.

I don't necessarily believe your assertion that guests are spending less time and money at DHS.

Iger, who was not lying, said that WDW broke attendance records last quater. Hard to see DHS suffering under those conditions!

 

[Mister Boo]

I don't disagree that it would be nice if DHS had a new coat of paint, more attractions . . . doesn't change the fact that DHS is seeing more business, as is WDW as a whole. I don't think distorted the facts serves any purpose. If fans are people who vote with their feet then at face value, your assertion would be in error.

They vote with their feet when, after two hours in the morning to do two or three things, everybody leaves DHS and takes their money down the street. I imagine the average expenditure per guest in DHS these days is scaring corporate to death.

 

[the.dreamfinder]

I don't necessarily believe your assertion that guests are spending less time and money at DHS.

Iger, who was not lying, said that WDW broke attendance records last quater. Hard to see DHS suffering under those conditions!

First off. Hollywood Studios has a dramatic audience retention problem, and it is now also a dramatic attendance problem. Actual attendance figures are basically state secrets and the "attendance estimates" circulated every year are basically BS on a stick, so instead I am going to point to evidence that anyone can investigate using publicly available data and experience.

Much has been made of Animal Kingdom and the "3pm problem" where most of its guests are ready to peace out after six hours. The truth is, Hollywood Studios has the same problem and it really began to show after Wizarding World of Harry Potter opened. Universal Orlando successfully pulled a day off of the typical one week Orlando visit and this is a day that would have been spent at Disney. Probably half at a water park and maybe the evening at a theme park. Or maybe at DTD or at the pool or riding horses at Ft. Wilderness. Whatever. What most guests ended up doing was shortening their time spent at DHS and DAK and consolidating those visits into other activities planned on the same day to accommodate for the time spent at UO. This means Disney still gets that "first click" daily attendance math that gives DHS and DAK abnormally high yearly attendance numbers, but the truth is those visits are shorter and guests are spending less money. Go hang out at the Backlot area of DHS on any given day after 6pm and you will see this in action. It is a ghost town. Star Tours 2 routinely is a walk on in the late evening at Hollywood Studios. Star Wars is a keystone of the upcoming plans for DHS and one of the most popular rides at Disneyland Park in Anaheim at all hours of the day. For this ride to routinely operate as a walk on in Orlando, something is very wrong.

 

[Pixiedustmaker]

They vote with their feet when, after two hours in the morning to do two or three things, everybody leaves DHS and takes their money down the street. I imagine the average expenditure per guest in DHS these days is scaring corporate to death.

Source? You can 'imagine' quite a bit, sure as a fan I wish DHS had more . . . but I'm not going to start saying things which are true. WDW had record business, reasonable that DHS's attendance went up 2%. Its hard to spin DHS as a failure, though obviously some fans want to . . .

 

[Lord_Vader]

AK Lion King is being moved. Rare perhaps but not impossible.

Don't forget Dumbo too!

 

[asianway]

Some guests travel to DHS specifically for the Osbourne Lights, and you'd have a lot of unhappy people if they discontinued them. The lights were changed in 2011 . . . doubt they are going anywhere for a while. Especially since the control systems and everything is setup for DHS.

People also travelled for PI, the Adventurers Club, EPCOT, etc but they have proven nothing is sacred, I don't think Christmas lights are untouchable. We're talking about a company that uses profit per square foot as a metric. SoA is going to come up short any way you dice it.

 

[misterID]

Wow, this thread has been really compelling. Some great posts by Spirit, articos, pheneix, and several thread regulars.

I got to learn about real attendance numbers, DHS makeover and possible park name change, UNI's 5 year plan and what really happened to Tony Soprano in that last episode in the space of a few posts. Awesome.

 

[doctornick]

TEA estimates, according to Spirit and Phenix, are inaccurate and the issue too is that folks are spending less time and money at DHS.

Even if they are inaccurate (and they are estimates, so okay, that's reasonable to believe), I'm pretty skeptical that they are off by like 25-35% and that DHS is only drawing 7M a year. That basically means that the most respected numbers in the industry are basically made up out of thin air.

That people are not spending that long in the park (and thus not spending as much on food and merch) is certainly believable and would be concerning to TDO. Of course, I'm not sure how getting rid of half the park to add a few rides solves this. It would require adding to existing capacity, not replacing.

 

[Mister Boo]

Even if they are inaccurate (and they are estimates, so okay, that's reasonable to believe), I'm pretty skeptical that they are off by like 25-35% and that DHS is only drawing 7M a year. That basically means that the most respected numbers in the industry are basically made up out of thin air.

That people are not spending that long in the park (and thus not spending as much on food and merch) is certainly believable and would be concerning to TDO. Of course, I'm not sure how getting rid of half the park to add a few rides solves this. It would require adding to existing capacity, not replacing.

This is what concerns me about an expansion-by-destruction that targets Muppets and Indy.