Spirited News, Observations & Thoughts IV

[asianway]

The number of rooms Disney has isn't really anything to brag about when they have to resort to steep discounts, like free dining or 30% off rack rates, to fill those rooms. Even with the discounts, there have been reliable reports of deluxe resorts less than half occupied.



If you really want to talk about "a character expansion whose time is past", see Avatar.

As for Magic Bands (mouse arrest bands), its much too soon to have valid results as to how they will affect guest spending. The test results Disney reports so far are suspect at best, with test subjects at least "encouraged" to spend via the bands. Only after this feature is widely available for some time can guest spending habits really be determined (at most I'd expect a fleeting increase while people "play" with their new band, then quickly rein back in their spending, and maybe not even that).



Not to miss the larger point of the post, but is Disneyland Paris really not operating Fantillusion anymore? If not, I know of a certain Disney park in Florida that is in need of an extra "light" parade. They threw their spare in the dumpster...

Fantillusion is not operating, almost a year now I think

 

[Funmeister]

I saw that too. Here's the 5 reasons they believe Uni won't make a dent. If you have a rebuttal to any or all of these, I'll reply on Motley with the best ones....

1. Disney just opened a large resort in Art of Animation nearly as large as all of Universal's existing space. They continue to grow other hotels as well with a Four Season's location coming online soon and their Grand Floridian expansion ready soon.
2. New Fantasyland has boosted Magic Kingdom to a point far beyond any boost Universal can hope to get from a character expansion whose time is past. Top that with the Avatar-land, Star Wars Land and Pixarland expansions coming over the next few years and you have some massive increases in patronage coming to Animal Kingdom and Hollywood Studios.
3. Downtown Disney. It has been the repeated drumbeat on the news in Orlando. Universal is using taxpayer funds to build a crosswalk while Disney is using it's own money to revitalize a huge area of Downtown Disney. This is going to improve cashflow in an area that was producing little and at the same time has turned a lot of locals in the Mouse's direction rather than a company that they now see as a moocher.
4. New magic bands are already increasing per customer spending nicely. The inflow from this alone coupled with parks that are full nearly all the time are going to help the bottom line immensely. Disney no longer has a slow season.
5, Space. Disney has room to develop. Walt knew they needed this advantage years ago and it is a major reason that Universal is stuck in a limited growth potential. They are landlocked.
I see Disney at $100,00 in a couple of years and Comcast trying to understand why they got into the Theme Park business.

Man, you are all over the place. The first thing you need to clarify is "make a dent" in what? Number of hotel rooms? Revenue? Number of attractions? Your points are so polarizing that there is no way anyone could make any type of argument. Please re-type, re-submit and try again. Thanks!

 

[GoofGoof]

Disney's fiscal year end, is end of this month, right? Time to announce some stuff, Disney. Wall Street wants you to . . . . (who cares about the fans?) C'mon, maximize shareholder value by building some, um, ah, STUFF. Yeah, that's it. Stuff.

Earnings release is probably first week of November. Don't hold your breath for a big announcement then. I expect a "my magic plus is complete" announcement. The biggest thing I'm waiting to hear is what they say (if anything) about the capital spending plan for P&R. If they say they expect further cuts in capital spending that's bad. If they say nothing or an increase it's probably good news but doesn't mean WDW is getting the funds. We will have to wait a little while to see.

 

[danlb_2000]

I saw that too. Here's the 5 reasons they believe Uni won't make a dent. If you have a rebuttal to any or all of these, I'll reply on Motley with the best ones....

1. Disney just opened a large resort in Art of Animation nearly as large as all of Universal's existing space. They continue to grow other hotels as well with a Four Season's location coming online soon and their Grand Floridian expansion ready soon.
2. New Fantasyland has boosted Magic Kingdom to a point far beyond any boost Universal can hope to get from a character expansion whose time is past. Top that with the Avatar-land, Star Wars Land and Pixarland expansions coming over the next few years and you have some massive increases in patronage coming to Animal Kingdom and Hollywood Studios.
3. Downtown Disney. It has been the repeated drumbeat on the news in Orlando. Universal is using taxpayer funds to build a crosswalk while Disney is using it's own money to revitalize a huge area of Downtown Disney. This is going to improve cashflow in an area that was producing little and at the same time has turned a lot of locals in the Mouse's direction rather than a company that they now see as a moocher.
4. New magic bands are already increasing per customer spending nicely. The inflow from this alone coupled with parks that are full nearly all the time are going to help the bottom line immensely. Disney no longer has a slow season.
5, Space. Disney has room to develop. Walt knew they needed this advantage years ago and it is a major reason that Universal is stuck in a limited growth potential. They are landlocked.
I see Disney at $100,00 in a couple of years and Comcast trying to understand why they got into the Theme Park business.

5. When there was only Magic Kingdom and Disney wanted to expand, they didn't use the land directly around MK, they build Epcot 2 miles away. No reason Uni couldn't do the same thing. There might not be land directly adjacent to the park but I would think they could find land within a 2 mile radius of it.

 

[PhotoDave219]

I am just confused, I am on my college program and I haven't heard a think about the 40% off. I've looked everywhere. I would love to know more about it since it's my birthday and my friends and I are planning on going out to dinner tonight.

DUDE. Check this. http://www.visitorlando.com/magicaldining/

3 course, $33 bucks. Lots of places participating.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

Universal just bought 55 acres along I-Drive and they are not done buying property. All it takes is money and Comcast has proven that that is one thing they are not afraid to do.

But Universal is no threat to WDW. It's simply best if TDO continues to pretend they don't exist.

 

[ford91exploder]

5. When there was only Magic Kingdom and Disney wanted to expand, they didn't use the land directly around MK, they build Epcot 2 miles away. No reason Uni couldn't do the same thing. There might not be land directly adjacent to the park but I would think they could find land within a 2 mile radius of it.

Many Disney Deluxe resorts have up to 50% of rooms 'out of service' skewing occupancy figures significantly

Disney's gate numbers are flat while UNI's gate is up 20% year over year

 

[Stevek]

Oh, Miceage confirmed what I told you about Monstropolis for DCA getting funded. Look for construction to begin before the end of the year.

And I'll repeat myself yet again, but look for a MAJOR Star Wars announcement soon after the fiscal year begins. This will happen and it, hopefully, isn't going to be dragged out so long that no one cares when it does.

On Miceage in reference to changes in DL's Tomorrowland, they alluded to the recent WDI playtesting and a "rowdy night in a Tatooine Cantina." Any additional info you can share on that? From what I read elsewhere, it didn't sound like we here in Anaheim were getting Mos Isley Cantina (though I wish we would to replace Pizza Port). Could this be some other interactive "show" going into the EO theater or TL Terrace?

 

[ParentsOf4]

Earnings release is probably first week of November. Don't hold your breath for a big announcement then. I expect a "my magic plus is complete" announcement. The biggest thing I'm waiting to hear is what they say (if anything) about the capital spending plan for P&R. If they say they expect further cuts in capital spending that's bad. If they say nothing or an increase it's probably good news but doesn't mean WDW is getting the funds. We will have to wait a little while to see.

The next quarter's earnings release in November should be fun. It will be the first quarter without the "Cars Land bump" driving up domestic theme park numbers.

Recapping the last 4 quarters, since the opening of Cars Land:

Q4 (July 1 - Sept. 29, 2012)

• "Walt Disney World attendance was down modestly, but Disneyland attendance was up substantially, resulting, if you add the two together, in domestic attendance being up the 3% that I mentioned."

So, WDW attendance "down modestly" for the quarter.

Q1 (Sept. 30 - Dec. 29, 2012)

• "For the quarter, attendance at our domestic parks was up 4% and per capita spending was up 6% on higher ticket prices, food and beverage, and merchandise spending."
• "Attendance at Disney World was down at hair, I would say, and that -- oh, I'm sorry -- it was up a hair, but it wasn't the driver for the quarter. As Bob just said, everything that's going on at the Disneyland Resort is really what's driving the attendance trends for domestic parks."

Domestic attendance up 4% but pretty much driven exclusively by Cars Land, like the previous quarter. WDW total attendance was "up a hair" even with the New Fantasyland (NFL) opening on October 12.

Q2 (Dec. 30 - Mar. 30, 2013)

• "In Q2, Walt Disney World and the Disneyland Resort both set new attendance records for the quarter."
• "For the quarter, attendance at our domestic parks was up 8% and per capita spending was up 10% on higher ticket prices, food and beverage, and merchandise spending."
• "While operating income in the second quarter was aided by a portion of the New Year and Easter holidays falling in Q2 relative to when those holiday periods fell last year, the results also reflected improved attendance and spending throughout the period and the growth investments we’ve made over the past couple of years are performing well."
• "So yes, we think that of the 400 basis points, about 2% was due to the shift in the front end and the back end of that quarter in terms of impact on margins."
• "The only thing I can tell you that may give you some sense is that the Magic Kingdom broke an all-time single-day record for attendance during the Easter holiday, and we believe that was a direct result of the investment that we made in Fantasyland."

Q2 domestic theme park attendance up 8% sounds great but 2% at both parks of that is credited to the holiday schedule while we saw in Q1 that attendance was up 4% even with the shortened quarter (ending Dec. 29) and that pretty much all of that 4% was driven by Carsland. Taken together, it suggests that WDW's total attendance was up no more than 1-2% as guests showed up for Spring Break to checkout the NFL in its first full quarter.

Q3 (Mar. 31 - June 29, 2013)

• "During the quarter, attendance at our domestic parks was up 3%, with Walt Disney World and the Disneyland Resort each setting new Q3 attendance records."
• "Magic Kingdom in Florida had record numbers, as Jay mentioned, in the third quarter."

Again, "attendance records" at WDW but as we saw in Q4 and Q1, that 3-4% growth in domestic attendance led to essentially flat attendance at WDW. In Q3, domestic attendance was up 3% while we learned that WDW's "attendance records" was "Magic Kingdom in Florida had record numbers", not WDW as a whole.
Taken as together, we see a pattern of phenomenal attendance gains at DLR, a direct result of Carsland, yet relatively flat attendance at WDW.

With Cars Land now open for more than 12 months, it will be entertaining to hear Iger's/Rasulo's next spin on domestic theme park attendance.

Don't worry, revenue will be up though. All we have to do is look at the 7% ticket price increase and double-digit food price increase to know that revenue will be up for the quarter.

Hope you feel WDW is worth 7% more than it was 12 months ago.

I really hope your pay is keeping up.

 

[tahqa]

Many Disney Deluxe resorts have up to 50% of rooms 'out of service' skewing occupancy figures significantly

Disney's gate numbers are flat while UNI's gate is up 20% year over year

Ummm... no, they're not...

http://www.orlandoinformer.com/2013...ndance-figures-released-universal-orlando-up/

For 2012 Universal Studios Orlando was up 2.5% and IOA was up 4% (compared to MK's 2.3%). Not hardly 20%.

http://www.disunplugged.com/2012/07/01/2011-theme-park-attendance-report/

For 2011 USO and IOA did better at 2.0% and 29%(!!) respectively.

And the statement made recently by Burke was that attendance at USO has been up about 20 percent "most weeks" since Transformers opened in June.

 

[Darth Sidious]

The next quarter's earnings release in November should be fun. It will be the first quarter without the "Cars Land bump" driving up domestic theme park numbers.

Recapping the last 4 quarters, since the opening of Cars Land:

Q4 (July 1 - Sept. 29, 2012)

• "Walt Disney World attendance was down modestly, but Disneyland attendance was up substantially, resulting, if you add the two together, in domestic attendance being up the 3% that I mentioned."

So, WDW attendance "down modestly" for the quarter.

Q1 (Sept. 30 - Dec. 29, 2012)

• "For the quarter, attendance at our domestic parks was up 4% and per capita spending was up 6% on higher ticket prices, food and beverage, and merchandise spending."
• "Attendance at Disney World was down at hair, I would say, and that -- oh, I'm sorry -- it was up a hair, but it wasn't the driver for the quarter. As Bob just said, everything that's going on at the Disneyland Resort is really what's driving the attendance trends for domestic parks."

Domestic attendance up 4% but pretty much driven exclusively by Cars Land, like the previous quarter. WDW total attendance was "up a hair" even with the New Fantasyland (NFL) opening on October 12.

Q2 (Dec. 30 - Mar. 30, 2013)

• "In Q2, Walt Disney World and the Disneyland Resort both set new attendance records for the quarter."
• "For the quarter, attendance at our domestic parks was up 8% and per capita spending was up 10% on higher ticket prices, food and beverage, and merchandise spending."
• "While operating income in the second quarter was aided by a portion of the New Year and Easter holidays falling in Q2 relative to when those holiday periods fell last year, the results also reflected improved attendance and spending throughout the period and the growth investments we’ve made over the past couple of years are performing well."
• "So yes, we think that of the 400 basis points, about 2% was due to the shift in the front end and the back end of that quarter in terms of impact on margins."
• "The only thing I can tell you that may give you some sense is that the Magic Kingdom broke an all-time single-day record for attendance during the Easter holiday, and we believe that was a direct result of the investment that we made in Fantasyland."

Q2 domestic theme park attendance up 8% sounds great but 2% at both parks of that is credited to the holiday schedule while we saw in Q1 that attendance was up 4% even with the shortened quarter (ending Dec. 29) and that pretty much all of that 4% was driven by Carsland. Taken together, it suggests that WDW's total attendance was up no more than 1-2% as guests showed up for Spring Break to checkout the NFL in its first full quarter.

Q3 (Mar. 31 - June 29, 2013)

• "During the quarter, attendance at our domestic parks was up 3%, with Walt Disney World and the Disneyland Resort each setting new Q3 attendance records."
• "Magic Kingdom in Florida had record numbers, as Jay mentioned, in the third quarter."

Again, "attendance records" at WDW but as we saw in Q4 and Q1, that 3-4% growth in domestic attendance led to essentially flat attendance at WDW. In Q3, domestic attendance was up 3% while we learned that WDW's "attendance records" was "Magic Kingdom in Florida had record numbers", not WDW as a whole.
Taken as together, we see a pattern of phenomenal attendance gains at DLR, a direct result of Carsland, yet relatively flat attendance at WDW.

With Cars Land now open for more than 12 months, it will be entertaining to hear Iger's/Rasulo's next spin on domestic theme park attendance.

Don't worry, revenue will be up though. All we have to do is look at the 7% ticker price increase and double-digit food price increase to know that revenue will be up for the quarter.

Hope you feel WDW is worth 7% more than it was 12 months ago.

I really hope your pay is keeping up.

I love it. This quarter will be attendance at Walt Disney World was up a hair due to the initial roll out of our new MyMagic+ program. We believe that we should trend upwards in spending per capita and attendance as more of the program is rolled out in early Q1.

 

[wdwfan4ver]

I saw that too. Here's the 5 reasons they believe Uni won't make a dent. If you have a rebuttal to any or all of these, I'll reply on Motley with the best ones....

5, Space. Disney has room to develop. Walt knew they needed this advantage years ago and it is a major reason that Universal is stuck in a limited growth potential. They are landlocked.
I see Disney at $100,00 in a couple of years and Comcast trying to understand why they got into the Theme Park business.

Universal isn't as bad in land as you make it due to the fact Universal bought 55 acres in June and is still wanting to buy more land. Universal also is looking at Monorails and that means transportation wouldn't be a true issue either when Universal buys more land.

The old saying is you spend money in order to make money.

 

[RSoxNo1]

Agree - But it was designed for load levelling not guest experience

Right, except they have yet to create a system that succeeds in load leveling and when the guest experience suffers when the force this one on us it will result in guests leaving.

 

[ford91exploder]

Right, except they have yet to create a system that succeeds in load leveling and when the guest experience suffers when the force this one on us it will result in guests leaving.

Yes - my point exactly, If the MouseHouseArrest band had been a straight up replacement for existing FP but with virtual instead of physical tickets and the ability to gift or change them and perhaps reserve FP's 24 hours in advance, Disney would have hit a customer satisfaction home run and they would have felt the love here.

Instead they give us the MouseHouseArrest band which is the love child of a pasty IT geek and a extreme OCD sufferer with the NSA as godfather.

 

[GoofGoof]

The next quarter's earnings release in November should be fun. It will be the first quarter without the "Cars Land bump" driving up domestic theme park numbers.

Recapping the last 4 quarters, since the opening of Cars Land:

Q4 (July 1 - Sept. 29, 2012)

• "Walt Disney World attendance was down modestly, but Disneyland attendance was up substantially, resulting, if you add the two together, in domestic attendance being up the 3% that I mentioned."

So, WDW attendance "down modestly" for the quarter.

Q1 (Sept. 30 - Dec. 29, 2012)

• "For the quarter, attendance at our domestic parks was up 4% and per capita spending was up 6% on higher ticket prices, food and beverage, and merchandise spending."
• "Attendance at Disney World was down at hair, I would say, and that -- oh, I'm sorry -- it was up a hair, but it wasn't the driver for the quarter. As Bob just said, everything that's going on at the Disneyland Resort is really what's driving the attendance trends for domestic parks."

Domestic attendance up 4% but pretty much driven exclusively by Cars Land, like the previous quarter. WDW total attendance was "up a hair" even with the New Fantasyland (NFL) opening on October 12.

Q2 (Dec. 30 - Mar. 30, 2013)

• "In Q2, Walt Disney World and the Disneyland Resort both set new attendance records for the quarter."
• "For the quarter, attendance at our domestic parks was up 8% and per capita spending was up 10% on higher ticket prices, food and beverage, and merchandise spending."
• "While operating income in the second quarter was aided by a portion of the New Year and Easter holidays falling in Q2 relative to when those holiday periods fell last year, the results also reflected improved attendance and spending throughout the period and the growth investments we’ve made over the past couple of years are performing well."
• "So yes, we think that of the 400 basis points, about 2% was due to the shift in the front end and the back end of that quarter in terms of impact on margins."
• "The only thing I can tell you that may give you some sense is that the Magic Kingdom broke an all-time single-day record for attendance during the Easter holiday, and we believe that was a direct result of the investment that we made in Fantasyland."

Q2 domestic theme park attendance up 8% sounds great but 2% at both parks of that is credited to the holiday schedule while we saw in Q1 that attendance was up 4% even with the shortened quarter (ending Dec. 29) and that pretty much all of that 4% was driven by Carsland. Taken together, it suggests that WDW's total attendance was up no more than 1-2% as guests showed up for Spring Break to checkout the NFL in its first full quarter.

Q3 (Mar. 31 - June 29, 2013)

• "During the quarter, attendance at our domestic parks was up 3%, with Walt Disney World and the Disneyland Resort each setting new Q3 attendance records."
• "Magic Kingdom in Florida had record numbers, as Jay mentioned, in the third quarter."

Again, "attendance records" at WDW but as we saw in Q4 and Q1, that 3-4% growth in domestic attendance led to essentially flat attendance at WDW. In Q3, domestic attendance was up 3% while we learned that WDW's "attendance records" was "Magic Kingdom in Florida had record numbers", not WDW as a whole.
Taken as together, we see a pattern of phenomenal attendance gains at DLR, a direct result of Carsland, yet relatively flat attendance at WDW.

With Cars Land now open for more than 12 months, it will be entertaining to hear Iger's/Rasulo's next spin on domestic theme park attendance.

Don't worry, revenue will be up though. All we have to do is look at the 7% ticker price increase and double-digit food price increase to know that revenue will be up for the quarter.

Hope you feel WDW is worth 7% more than it was 12 months ago.

I really hope your pay is keeping up.

Your Q3 comment on only MK being up vs all of WDW is still an assumption not a fact. Both statements were made and you assume the WDW one is incorrect. That may be so, but its also possible that Iger got it wrong in his statement. Everything else I agree with and that is really just splitting hairs anyway. We would all be pretty shocked if they came out and said WDW attendance was up. I think they may actually be happy with a 2 to 3% growth rate a year as long as people continue to pay the increased prices. The lack of a major pop from DCA 2.0 is a really bad sign for StarWarsLand or anything else major at WDW.

 

[WDW1974]

Spirited Wednesday Musings:

It's always a MAGICal day when cruise docs find their way into your mailbox.

A friend pointed me in the direction of the Disney and More blog today as they have a piece up that claims Carsland for TDR is also DOA. I never thought it would happen originally anyway, but checked with someone who would know and they confirmed it.

Allain at the site claims it will be replaced by a Fantasyland addition and expansion, but I can't help but believe that The Force is headed over there as well. They have the most impressive Star Tours attraction, including showbuilding, and a Tomorrowland that is a mess. I wonder if that is what Iger and Staggs are doing at Japan's first D23 Expo in three or so weeks.

I do not think the GAC thread should have been closed. I saw no nastiness and only one person taking things way too personally. It is news and we should be allowed to talk about news, even if some folks are hypersensitive. No one was yelling 'shoot the cripples' ... As to the fact that not everyone's disability or individual circumstances will be covered, my response would only be 'that's a shame for them, and I hope they can still use the new one.'

I can't help but feel that the GAC situation has sorta devolved into an anything goes stew of deceit and unfairness that harms the neediest anyway. It is akin to going out to dinner with a difficult (cringeworthy) relative, friend or associate who believes they are in their own private kitchen and expects the restaurant (whether McD's or 5 star cuisine) to make everything special for them, not one special request or dietary restriction, but literally creating a whole new menu. Some folks can't dine out. Some can't do theme parks. To expect Disney to cater to every bizarre condition and need (or made up need) out there is simply ridiculous.

In case this isn't on the UNI board, they are opening the Studios at 8 a.m. Now on HHNs.

I did not think much of FOX's ballyhooed new comedies last night. Hey, Andy, should have stuck with SNL.

 

[WDW1974]

But Lou Mongello told me the mine train would be the best ride Disney has ever built...

Be glad it was Mongello and you weren't at an Imagineer/Fanboi mixer. All sorts of tales are spun at those.
BTW, is Jason Grandt really an Imagineer? WOW!

 

[WDW1974]

He also said, with force mind you, that it would be an E ticket and add to the WDW mountain range... Funny, I see a D ticket in a hill... No mountain..

I see a C-Ticket if I don't put in my contacts. Otherwise ...

BTW, apologies as I planned go hold a pool here where we could guess which lifestyler would have have pics of the new AA toilets first. Work got the better of me ...

 

[WDW1974]

That's interesting because last month they told CM's that there would block-out dates of all cast dining discounts, no 20% discounts, no holiday coupon use for dining, everything would be blocked out in the last part of August and the whole month of September because of the expected guest use of the dining and dining plans. Then after a week goes by in September and the block-outs were lifted and were given more discounts than before.

Yeah, funny how that works.

but now I am planning an Artist Point dinner and, possibly, a Grand Flo Cafe dinner on my next visit ...gotta love those CM pals!

 

[WDWDad13]

It's always a MAGICal day when cruise docs find their way into your mailbox.

Now THAT is something we can all agree on!

Have a nice trip