Spirited News & Observations II -- NGE/Baxter

[WDW1974]

Some deep thoughts (or late night spitballing) on the eve/morn of The Weatherman's appearance on CNBC after TWDC announces its earnings, consider this in the context of Iger's transition to a "more compelling growth mode."

MyMagic+, indeed all of NGE, is highly dependent on integrating technology to derive greater revenue from existing streams. A tall order, and not the most forward-thinking. You want to advance the technology, you want to bring in more revenue. Of course, you also want to/need to create new revenue streams. Here, I mean you want to/need to bring in more and new guests.

At the same time, you have to make certain to keep each revenue stream, each guest, already in your portfolio. (Again, do you know your MAGICscore?)

Notice, at least here in the urbanized areas of the US, that taxpayer funded highways are being privatized and others are having lanes removed for toll-only use? The greater the congestion, the higher the price you will pay to 'opt-in' to use the less congested lanes and wiz by the gridlock.

Well, apply that to MM+. That dynamic system will be able to adjust for no-shows and slower than anticipated flow at any given attraction. Conversely, it can respond to an extra flow of guests. Miss that months ago planned FP+ time? Want to ride a ride not on your FP+ itinerary? Just visiting for the day and precluded and excluded from participating in FP+ fully?

How about this?

Just 'tap and ride' ... for a fee, that is. You will be able to ride whatever attraction you just can't miss. ToT? Check. TSMM? Certainly. Soarin? Don't worry, be happy, we've got your FP. Provided you are willing to part with that extra $ ... or $$ ... or $$$. Hey, it is easy enough, right? Just tap/pay away.

Sure, that isn't the 'plan' now. Or the one Disney is talking about, but who knows how things will look down the road?

Are you sensing a virtual ticket book in the near future? Getting the idea that your admission media will now be a baseline from which TWDC will use -- through MagicBands or chiptix or whatever RFID device is in your possession -- to build a revenue enhancer from which the money will flow based on a dam of the company's making?

If so, you are well on your way to understanding the true promise of NGE and its delivery. Now, as to why it exists instead of, say, tangible product like new E-Tickets ...

Well, that is less complicated. Look no further than WWoHP. And UNI's third gate.

You read that right. UNI has a third gate.

No, not Blue Sky. Not in 2025. Part of it is open now. Well, what 'could' be a third gate. What 'may' be a third gate. What could certainly be a virtual third gate in a few years time.

When Disney passed on dealing with J.K. Rowling, it well knew of her vision, her desire, for that IP. Once UNI opened the WWoHP, there was no question where it was headed. And that WDW could no longer (perhaps the better way of stating it would be opted not to) compete head-to-head in the Orlando swamps where it dominated for decades.

TWDC understood how some guests would now come to O-Town just for that. And, worse, base an entire stay on visiting UNI/IOA ... maybe with some SW/DC/AQ thrown in. Maybe even while staying in a beautiful BLT villa.

For those wondering, Hogwart's is the bridge. A bridge in more ways then one ... a bridge in fact that might simply signal a slight change in ticketing at one resort or a seismic shift in the parks model for Orlando's top dogs.

The 'not-a-monorail' that will transition guests and wizards from IOA or UNI from one MAGICal realm to another and ... what could have been Disney's. Soon Phase two will open, and Phase three will likely be under construction. And, UNI will offer a ticket to J.K.'s world for both guests who arrive at IOA and those who come by way of the Studios.

Where this all gets mighty interesting is just what the new ticketing at UNI will look like. And how it might allow Disney to actually push thru with what NGE will eventually (technical issues aside ... hopefully ... some year) be able to accomplish.

To the chatter about how UNI is going to simply open its gates and offer one ticket to both parks for a higher price point and exclude guests who want to visit one or the other ... ah, that is not going to happen. Take that to the bank. UNI has shown itself to be a masterful player at the theme park game post Comcast takeover. A one-day two-park ticket that costs over $150 (to be fair a one-day park hopper at WDW is now $125 plus tax) would never go over to the masses. So, eliminating a one-day, one park ticket won't happen.

But, make no mistake, they welcome all the talk. Anything that gets WDW to raise prices will only push UNI's revenues higher. That said, think more along the lines of UNI knowing that once guests arrive they will want to see WWoHP. Even Disney's own internal surveys (I know, I took one a few months ago) refer to IOA as 'Harry Potter Park' and that is done with scientific intent ... to gauge intent.

Could Disney's own surveys be telegraphing UNI's actual plans?

So, what's the alternative? What 'could'/'might'/'may' change the entire theme park ticketing model in O-Town? What may allow Disney to use MM+ as a virtual ticket bo... I mean band?

Simple. Really.

One of two options. Either have UNI/IOA park-goers pay extra for train tix. In other words, an extra-MAGIC experience (you knew that was coming!) OR ... here it comes ... make Potter a virtual third gate. The Potter BRAND being so strong, imagine paying for a Hogwart's ticket that allows you access to both 'lands' in each park (yep, likely using RFID tech ... although any type of media would be fine). Sure, some folks might grumble who have gotten used to WWoHP as part of regular admission, but some might not care. Heck, all those Potter-bashers might enjoy paying 'less' for a ticket sans access to The Boy Who Lived's world.

Is either scenario likely? Good question. But I know they've been discussed. I know both Disney and UNI have plans to greatly alter their ticketing policies.

Wouldn't it be a hoot if UNI's REAL world additions helped Disney's datamining expedition fully exploit its new tech?

Nah ... just crazy late-night theme park thinking ... or not.

 

[Jane Doe]

Personally, I think Disaster is the most underrated attraction in Florida and I keep hearing it may be going away. It's no secret that Universal is really putting on the pressure, the only complaint I'd have is that they're only building D and E-tickets. I can't even believe I just wrote that sentence, but it's true. They are only building major attractions and I'm somehow viewing that as a problem.

Visited Universal Studios for the first time in twelve months just last week, they have also in that time added a parade and a regular nighttime show too. They know what people want and are giving it to them, which to me makes Universal a much more attractive proposition at the moment.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

Personally, I think Disaster is the most underrated attraction in Florida and I keep hearing it may be going away. It's no secret that Universal is really putting on the pressure, the only complaint I'd have is that they're only building D and E-tickets. I can't even believe I just wrote that sentence, but it's true. They are only building major attractions and I'm somehow viewing that as a problem.

Well they are building a Kodo and Kang's Spinny Ride (Spinner). But everything else are certainly E and D ticket attractions. Even the smaller attractions like the Borgin and Burkes walk through will be a true D-Ticket and possibly too intense for smaller children. I don't mind everything being E & D Ticket level, but they do need some of them to be family friendly and while the Hogwarts Express' ride system will be able to handle everything including infants, I don't think the content will be especially family friendly. Maybe one direction will be intense with a dementor attack and the other more humorous with something like the Weasley's Flying Ford Anglia.

I have heard that with the Jurassic Park Expansion there will be an expanded Camp Jurassic and after Potter there is supposed to be KidZone redo. So we will see where this thing goes.

 

[Next Big Thing]

DVC fits in with the Blue Ocean theory. Disney has sold hundreds of thousands of people 50 years of hotel stays on property. They are a locked in audience. No need to compete to keep them coming back, they've paid for their trips in advance. Perhaps when Disney sees DVC members straying off property in greater numbers, they'll wake up.

Not necessarily. Yes, they are a locked in audience for staying on property, but that doesn't mean they will go to the parks. Some i've talked to actually have skipped WDW and gone to Uni instead while staying in their DVC.

 

[alphac2005]

EPCOT literally blew my mind in the mid-80s as a little kid. I loved MK too, but EPCOT was so out there like nothing I had ever seen. It's sad to see the state of Imagination now. I still love SSE even with it's flaws.

Same here. Born in the late 70s, a kid of the 80s, and nothing blew me away like EPCOT Center did. It's amazing to think that a theme park could influence a child in so many ways, but it did. I was fascinated by the audio-animatronics, the ride systems, futurism, effects, etc. It was so terrific, it was innovative, and it was unique.

With that being said, that's what makes many of us around here even more irate/disappointed/disconnected with and from The Walt Disney Company today and specifically the Orlando property. They had hardcore cradle to the grave fans that would spend endless money on their product, talk to their friends about it like some sort of religion or multilevel marketing scheme, but for the sake of short term profiteering, they've decided that types like us are of no importance today. In the end, the joke will be on them. When they've destroyed their base and reached a point of no return with too high costs for the average vacation-goer, ESPN won't be able to count on substantially increased per subscriber fees forever to prop up the company's profits. I bet no company engages in lobbying against ala carte programming more than Disney as it would destroy their business model.

 

[twebber55]

Not necessarily. Yes, they are a locked in audience for staying on property, but that doesn't mean they will go to the parks. Some i've talked to actually have skipped WDW and gone to Uni instead while staying in their DVC.

exactly... im a dvc owner and my last two years i ve only gone to Universal no Disney parks....i do dine at resorts so Disney is getting some of my money but more is going to universal because of the new offerings.... actually just got back from a quick trip to Orlando hitting both IOA and USF

 

[Goofyernmost]

Personally, I think Disaster is the most underrated attraction in Florida and I keep hearing it may be going away. It's no secret that Universal is really putting on the pressure, the only complaint I'd have is that they're only building D and E-tickets. I can't even believe I just wrote that sentence, but it's true. They are only building major attractions and I'm somehow viewing that as a problem.

I totally agree! Nothing has made me, a crusty old curmudgeon, stand with mouth agape, with Wow on my lips. It was unbelievable. The old subway scene is getting old, but still works well, but doesn't fit in as well as it did when the attraction was named Earthquake, but I'll give it a pass because it is still a cool way to end an attraction.

I hope you are wrong about it being delegated to the world of memory only. I just discovered it. I need to go back to see what detail I missed while in the state of shock.

 

[flynnibus]

@WDW1974 - do you think ioa and us would sustain their increases if wwohp were broken out from them? I have my doubts. Ioa needed that shot in the arm that was wwohp and I'm not sure it's fully weened.

Ioa still suffers as unappreciated and wwohp has helped it's numbers, but overshadowed ioa's identity. Breaking it out to a third gate would make that even tougher on ioa.

Tho you comments on pay to play are interesting. If you take a micropayment type approach... Which had proven very successful in scale in online music and apps... People may be willing to pay beyond their gate prices. Keep prices so low the barrier is low, but the frequency is high and you get good money.

But I would have to think Disney would have to think long and hard before they had a 'pay $10 to go front of the line right now'. Psychologically that is very different than a simple pay to play. I don't know if Disney would have the Gaul to cross that line...

 

[IHeartArt]

OR ... here it comes ... make Potter a virtual third gate. The Potter BRAND being so strong, imagine paying for a Hogwart's ticket that allows you access to both 'lands' in each park (yep, likely using RFID tech ... although any type of media would be fine). Sure, some folks might grumble who have gotten used to WWoHP as part of regular admission, but some might not care. Heck, all those Potter-bashers might enjoy paying 'less' for a ticket sans access to The Boy Who Lived's world.

I'm... not exactly sure about the tenability of this plan. TWWoHP already has an issue of flow to keep in mind. Putting a speed-bump at both entrances to the IOA section seems like it would only make that worse. I'm figuring that Harry Goes to Hollywood London might have the same problem with it. That entrance near the wharf feels pretty cramped to me...

And to be honest, would Universal be investing so heavily in other aspects of their park if they had this idea that Harry Potter is their own nest to draw on? I don't know. Maybe it's the fact that I've only had three hours of sleep today. Whatever. Sleep is for quitters, anyways.

 

[njDizFan]

@WDW1974 - do you think ioa and us would sustain their increases if wwohp were broken out from them? I have my doubts. Ioa needed that shot in the arm that was wwohp and I'm not sure it's fully weened.

Ioa still suffers as unappreciated and wwohp has helped it's numbers, but overshadowed ioa's identity. Breaking it out to a third gate would make that even tougher on ioa.

Tho you comments on pay to play are interesting. If you take a micropayment type approach... Which had proven very successful in scale in online music and apps... People may be willing to pay beyond their gate prices. Keep prices so low the barrier is low, but the frequency is high and you get good money.

But I would have to think Disney would have to think long and hard before they had a 'pay $10 to go front of the line right now'. Psychologically that is very different than a simple pay to play. I don't know if Disney would have the Gaul to cross that line...

Interesting point. If Uni initiates a pay to play virtual 3rd gate but only charges a small fee(say $1.99) or something, most people would gladly accept. It could be a tidy little revenue stream with 10 million plus visitors a year that would certainly add up.

 

[71jason]

But everything else are certainly E and D ticket attractions.

There are actually a surprising number of A - C attractions aimed at children throughout both parks -- however they are not "rides" or arguably even "attractions" in the modern Disney sense. I've spent hours in If I Ran the Zoo, Barney's Playland and Curious George Goes to Town (kids cry when you try to take them out of that ball house). There's also the Fievel land (at least for another year or so) and Jurassic Park Discovery Center (at least for a few more months) and Me Ship The Olive and the admittedly short Lorax trail and the shops in Hogsmeade ...

The problem is WDW has infected the average guest with the commando mentality--wait in line, ride the ride, buy a pin in the gift shop, repeat. A trip to WDW these days is about the destinations--all about getting guests to that magic number of 8 attractions a day or whatever it is--not the journey itself. Universal Studios, and especially IoA, are geared differently. They reward taking your time to soak in the details and explore, and let you amuse yourself without having to rely on interactive touch screens from 1997.

 

[Monsterfan99]

Well, I know that was a rumour with the Jaguars, as well as the team splitting time between Jacksonville and Orlando, each getting four games. I think that is now out of the question where the Jags have not had a blackout in the last two seasons, and they are committed to playing a home game in each of the next three seasons in London.

Anyone know how Miami and Tampa are doing with attendance? It would be interesting to see a Football/Soccer staduim built there - maybe even make it a baseball staduim also so that it could be in use year round?

Bring this up from a few pages back. A soccer stadium is very much something that has been looked into especially with Orlando City aiming for MLS in 2014-2015 and the new MLS spring training. Also talked about is adding another team for spring training (hinging on if the Washington Nationals move) as both the Mets and Cardinals have had executives there in the last 2 years to take tours. Then again, look at the 100 plus lane bowling alley that was going to built where visitors would not be in to play. Or the failed WDW Speedway.

Wide World of Sports is a complex that tends to be the poster child for the TDO thinking more than anything else. Always extremely short staffed, dying grass is featured all summer in Champions Stadium due to over use, the restaurant is open from 11-6 if you are lucky, the new soccer fields have no shade along with cheap metal bleachers, teams play more games off-site than on-site, no private cameras allowed in photos with Mickey & on busy days are parking folks on medians to where you get to dodge traffic to get to your car. Not to mention the third-party advertisers are featured with booths and even an entire generator ran AC tent at the entrance for Office Max.

 

[71jason]

Interesting point. If Uni initiates a pay to play virtual 3rd gate but only charges a small fee(say $1.99) or something, most people would gladly accept. It could be a tidy little revenue stream with 10 million plus visitors a year that would certainly add up.

I imagine the fee would be a lot more than that. Can't see it being under $25, probably more--you can't get a bottle of Coke for $1.99. And I think the backlash would be a PR nightmare. Honestly, I think they could get away with a $150 two-park 1-day pass* more easily. People will pay for Potter, but they don't want to feel "ripped off," even if it works out to the same amount of money either way.

I assume Potter would only be available as an add-on? Can't think of an easy way to access either land from CityWalk.


* 10 years ago, I believe a two-park AP was only $170! Letting Potter slip away must be the biggest mistake in WDW's 40-year history.

 

[alphac2005]

Curious George Goes to Town (kids cry when you try to take them out of that ball house).

That is the money quote of the day. Our almost three year old guy LOVES the Curious George area. Every single day we get in the car and he reminds us that he wants to "Go to on vacation to Curious George play thing and play with the ball vacuum." We then remind him that next time we go, we'll spend lots of time there. It's funny that our nine year old twins had no interest in any of the play areas when they were his age, but for our little guy, it's pure gold.

 

[rael ramone]

We can go back and forth and I know you're not trying to have one of those (that be what troll rrrrr for!) ... but my position is simply that a CEO (and one who had made over $100 million in the last three years alone) has no business taking the money and running so to speak. This isn't a casino (why people view Wall Street that way now, I find very scary) and you show faith in the company that if you leave that money in the company, you'll be able to take that OR MORE out later.

Pulling stock as soon as you can isn't a sign of belief in the long term health of the company you lead.

For the 'mom & pop' investor, there is something to be said for 'harvesting gains'. No matter how much 'homework' (as Cramer puts it) on your holdings you do (reading SEC filings, listening to earnings conference calls, reading newspaper articles (both finance related as well as ones just on the gist of their industry, etc), the fact is that there is much that you don't know. The company that you have part of your retirement funds invested in, behind all the positive press that the company has, may have dry rot inside it...

The CEO, on the other hand, is the ultimate 'insider'. Nobody should know more about a company than it's CEO. Between they day to day involvement, board meetings, etc, he should see the value (or lack thereof) of a company better than anyone else. (There's a reason why those who are 'legal insiders' have specific rules as to when they can and can't buy/sell shares).

In a way, some would say as long as Igers holdings meet SEC and company bylaw rules, then it's OK. But when little 10 year old Johnny owns more vested shares than the CEO (and the CEO is in the process of spending 1.5 bil plus on datamining him and is blowing off Congressional interest in said program) it gives 'mom & pop' reason to consider somewhere else to invest...

In a nutshell: He is embarking on a program that not only is anti-guest (and anti-Walt), but is a very expensive and very risky move, and he's showing his faith in the plan by cashing out.

 

[OFTeric]

Well right now the SOP (Standard Operating Procedure) at the ticket booths is to offer a 1 Day 2 Park pass.

You must specifically ASK for a 1 Day 1 Park pass at Universal in order to get one. This has been the SOP for over 2 years now.

I imagine with the Potter Expansion they will continue to push the 2 Park ticket, with the ability to upgrade inside the park.

 

[Horizons78]

Just 'tap and ride' ... for a fee, that is. You will be able to ride whatever attraction you just can't miss. ToT? Check. TSMM? Certainly. Soarin? Don't worry, be happy, we've got your FP. Provided you are willing to part with that extra $ ... or $$ ... or $$$. Hey, it is easy enough, right? Just tap/pay away.

You've said too much.

You obviously need more treatment....err....I mean MAGIC. You need more MAGIC. Stare deeply into the MAGIC.

 

[Lee]

^ Post of the day. That needs to go viral or something.

 

[fw1987]

exactly... im a dvc owner and my last two years i ve only gone to Universal no Disney parks....i do dine at resorts so Disney is getting some of my money but more is going to universal because of the new offerings.... actually just got back from a quick trip to Orlando hitting both IOA and USF

I took a different step this year. I have been soured in the past few years first by ADRs and the DDP, then with upkeep and finally with NextGen. So I just sold all of my BCV points for the this year and then some. I then went out for cocktails and a nice filet with a small fraction of the proceeds.

While someone may be using my points, it is one less family going down to WDW, and the family using my points may have stayed in a deluxe if not for buying my points.

When I bought my DVC points in early 2002, I was betting on TWDC to maintain its standards and vision. I missed on that one....

 

[flynnibus]

Interesting point. If Uni initiates a pay to play virtual 3rd gate but only charges a small fee(say $1.99) or something, most people would gladly accept. It could be a tidy little revenue stream with 10 million plus visitors a year that would certainly add up.

I think there is a huge psychological barrier to pay to play, in that if you don't pay you are excluded. People hate that... But upgrades?? Up sells?? People pay for those in spades... Especially at the micro level. (Think souviner cup). Now apply that to attractions... Want to play that game portal? .99 cents... Want to see the dynamite blow up? .99. Want to override your default fp+ time? 1.99

Etc

The trick is finding things ( my examples were not that good) that people see as an upgrade and not just something you should have had to start with. Upsell... Not nickle and dime. That's the line you have to dance...

With something like magicband... It really opens up micropayments because you make it so easy to commit the payment