Revenge Vacation: Only Actual Data Need Apply

Trackmaster

Well-Known Member
I'm sure we will have enough significant data to say either way it's a thing or not. From personal experience there is pent up demand to travel in general. It's not just Disney. I look at National parks and how booked up they are this summer. Same with a lot of regional parks.

I was just at Cedar Point last week and I have never seen it that busy for May before. I have been going there for years in May as it's usually a slower time. I do think there is a lot of pent up demand for travel in general right now. How long that will remain to be seen especially if gas prices and prices in general stay the way they are.

Cedar Point is going to be very dependent on weather. It follows a lot of the regional park logic, so the GP will just stay home when they see clouds in the sky, and pack in every inch when its a lovely day out. You may have just hit a nice day.

I'd say that 2021 was the revenge year for CP, since it had been open since 2020. 2022 is getting to be back to normal, and if anything, you might find attendance sagging since they're down Top Thrill Dragster and Wicked Twister, and haven't added a new one since 2018. Regardless, CP has been losing a lot of its magic, and a lot of people are defecting to King's Island now.

Disney World is getting a lot of the revenge travel since it attracts a lot of tourists who have more money (so they took Covid more seriously) and the experience was notoriously slashed in 2020 and 2021, and this is Disney getting back to normal.
 

GoneViral

Well-Known Member
Yes. I am not sure how many businesses can justify maxed-out business trips in the age of Zoom/Webex. It will be interesting to see the long term viability of those industries (certain airlines, convention centers, hotels that cater to that sort of thing) vs those built around recreation.
Right, I struggle to envision a scenario where business travel ever returns to the way we knew it even five years ago. Yes, some work must be done face to face, but companies can save so much money via video chat. Most of them stubbornly refused to acknowledge that before the pandemic. Now that they know, I just don't see them going back.
 

GoneViral

Well-Known Member
I’m fascinated by this discussion. As I said a few days ago, I think anecdotal perceptions of “busyness” or crowds are more a reflection that the businesses can’t fully staff, so while they’re capped out (on flights, at restaurants, in parks) they’re taking on less customers than they could otherwise that if they were fully staffed.

Some interesting metrics. First, the TSA year by year comparison (for certain dates) of travel. As you can see, we’re not yet near the 2019 numbers of flyers-per-day. In fact, there appear to be another 400K or so more fliers on a given day in 2022 than in 2021. I would expect a lot more, honestly. Now, is the shortfall a reduction of business travelers vs vacationers? No way of knowing.
View attachment 642569

Next, here’s an article re hotel occupancy in larger cities. They were predicting a rebound, but no where near the 2019 levels.

https://nypost.com/2022/04/20/nyc-hotel-and-tourism-business-has-long-road-to-recovery-study/amp/
This was an exceptional post. Thank you!
 

Wendy Pleakley

Well-Known Member
Personally speaking, I had a 2-week trip for Disneyland and California scheduled for Summer 2020, which I finally took at the beginning of this year.

I'm not travelling above and beyond what I normally would. I'm not taking three trips this year to make up for lost time. In lieu of travel I generally spent the money elsewhere - new TV, new computer, new toys, etc.

I'll be curious to see what happens long term. Anyone fortunate to work from home during the pandemic and not have their income affected would certainly contribute to a 'revenge travel' period. I was certainly itching to make my trip happen.

Once that initial bubble subsides, and things get back to normal, there will be people still trying to recover financially from the period. Will it be a travel bump (driven by those who continued to work and save) followed by a dip in travel?
 
I don't know about other countries, but here in the US it seems like the Summer of Bumper to Bumper.
Never seen so many backups and delays in my life. Many are wrecks, others have been construction. Not sure how much is from "Revenge" travel or people just deer in headlights confused to be out and about again after the past couple years. The extra delays getting to and from has dampened my travel spirit this summer.
 

SaucyBoy

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
No
I don't know about "revenge" travel, but this summer my family and I are doing two trips together. The first is next week to Orlando and the second is a weeklong cruise to Alaska. I'm also flying to NJ for a concert on Aug 11. It's not really pent up demand, just a desire to travel again without (so many) restrictions.
 

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
Original Poster

On July 4 weekend, thousands of U.S. travelers​

are inconvenienced by flight delays and cancellations.​

Nearly seven million travelers flooded U.S. airports on Friday, Saturday and Sunday, with a total of 13 million air travelers to, from or within the United States expected to have passed through by the end of this Fourth of July weekend.

For many of those passengers, however, travel plans were upended because of flight delays and cancellations caused by a boom in travel demand coupled with widespread staffing shortages. From Friday through Sunday, airlines that fly within, into, or out of the United States canceled more than 1,400 flights, according to FlightAware, a flight-tracking website, stranding and angering some passengers headed for long-awaited summer vacations. In addition, more than 14,000 U.S. flights were delayed this holiday weekend, according to the site’s data.

The experience has been frustrating for some passengers on U.S. carriers. On Saturday, 1,048 — or 29 percent — of Southwest Airlines flights were delayed, as were 28 percent of American Airlines flights, according to FlightAware. United Airlines and Delta Air Lines had similar problems, with 21 percent and 19 percent of their flights delayed. On Sunday, the middle of the holiday weekend, travelers seemed to be getting a respite from the worst of the troubles, with roughly three-quarters of the delays and half as many cancellations as the day before.
As of 9 a.m. Eastern time on Monday, there were more than 600 delays and about 140 cancellations at U.S. airports.

1656944540518.png

In a typical month, about 20 percent of flights are delayed or canceled, according to Robert W. Mann Jr., a former airline executive who now runs the airline consultancy R.W. Mann & Company. But this holiday weekend, he said, it was about 30 percent. “It’s a little bit worse than usual,” he said.

As airlines face a pilot shortage, bad weather conditions and air traffic control delays, some seemed to struggle to handle passenger volume that approached or in some cases exceeded prepandemic levels. On Friday, the Transportation Safety Administration screened more passengers — 2.49 million people — than on any other day this year. That surpassed the 2.18 million travelers screened on July 1, 2019, before the pandemic.

Still, travel to and from airports in the United States seemed to be going better than in many other parts of the world. On Sunday, airlines had delayed about half of all flights departing from Toronto Pearson International Airport, Charles de Gaulle Airport in Paris and Frankfurt Airport, while about 40 percent of flights from London Heathrow were delayed.

On Monday, Australian airports were hit hard, with nearly 60 percent of departing flights from Sydney Airport delayed, while airports in Brisbane and Melbourne did not fare much better. SAS, the Scandinavian airline, said on Monday that its pilots’ union had called a strike over pay, which would lead to the cancellation of 50 percent of its flights, affecting about 30,000 passengers daily. The money-losing carrier, which serves as the national airline of Denmark, Norway and Sweden, called the move “devastating.”
 

MickeyLuv'r

Well-Known Member
To some extent it depends how one defines 'pre-pandemic levels.'

How do we compare 2022 to prior years? What prior years or range of prior years?
 

MickeyLuv'r

Well-Known Member
There's a graphic in the post above.
Uh, duh, thanks for pointing out the obvious, but that still doesn't answer my question because the graph only shows # of TSA screenings for 2019-2022. It is far from a complete answer to your original question.

That graph is only useful if you are randomly defining 2019 = a standard of measure for the very vague term, "normal year."
But 2019 was not a normal year if you look at ANY other years.


On top of that, the above graphic only shows TSA screenings. The number of TSA screenings only tells a portion of the story. For example, it doesn't tell anything about the distance they are traveling. Nor does it show anything at all about other modes of travel: car, bus, train.

I could go on....
 

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
Original Poster
Uh, duh, thanks for pointing out the obvious, but that still doesn't answer my question because the graph only shows # of TSA screenings for 2019-2022. It is far from a complete answer to your original question.

That graph is only useful if you are randomly defining 2019 = a standard of measure for the very vague term, "normal year."
But 2019 was not a normal year if you look at ANY other years.


On top of that, the above graphic only shows TSA screenings. The number of TSA screenings only tells a portion of the story. For example, it doesn't tell anything about the distance they are traveling. Nor does it show anything at all about other modes of travel: car, bus, train.

I could go on....
All of 2019 was a full pre-pandemic year. I don't see why that isn't good pre-pandemic statistics.
 

MickeyLuv'r

Well-Known Member
All of 2019 was a full pre-pandemic year. I don't see why that isn't good pre-pandemic statistics.
I think you missed the point. I didn't say the graph was inaccurate. I said 'normal' is a subjective term. To measure anything, you need to define a standard of measure.

2019 was pre-pandemic, but we don't know that 2019 was a normal travel year, because we have not defined 'normal.' From what I have read, 2019 was an above-average travel year.

If you want to say the USA is back to normal, or not back to normal, so be it.
 

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
Original Poster
I think you missed the point. I didn't say the graph was inaccurate. I said 'normal' is a subjective term. To measure anything, you need to define a standard of measure.

2019 was pre-pandemic, but we don't know that 2019 was a normal travel year, because we have not defined 'normal.' From what I have read, 2019 was an above-average travel year.

If you want to say the USA is back to normal, or not back to normal, so be it.
Looks like there was a 2-4% increase each year leading up to 2019.

Thus, 2019 does represent typical pre-pandemic travel levels (at least, going by plane trips).

1657218186612.png



 

Ldno

Well-Known Member
Be careful with your Revenge Travel, I did the same about two weeks ago, I’m fully vaxxed with boosters and my whole entire family(kids included) got COVID, monkeypox, whatever is the flavor of the month, I was bed ridden for 4 days, In the past I tested positive for covid 5 times(the last being the 5th) and this was the worst I have ever felt in my entire life. I started feeling horrible during the last day my kids wanted to use the pool so there’s that.

Watch out and Oh Disney although they have sanitizers all over, 60% were empty, I had my own but still, you never know.
 

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