Resort Parking Charges

[Chef Mickey]

I’m not talking about the investment angle. Though, like dividends, buybacks are used to manipulate “values” and probably should be severely limited.

I’m saying a stock buyback supported by higher ticket costs does NOTHING to give value to the person paying the prices at Disney parks. It benefits iger and the California public employees pension fund by propping up the stock price.

If anything...it hurts the traveler. The corporate hustlers see how easy it is for them to make personal wealth and they keep going back to the price trough to get more.

Which ends up with more people in the parks, payibg more to do the same or less things.

And now the circle is complete

I don't think anyone was arguing buybacks help retail park guests, unless they own shares. They are great for shareholders, no matter how many you own. They are tax efficient and my preferred capital return over dividends.

Buybacks aren't designed to manipulate anything. You have a myopic view of them, probably because you've read about the bad ones.

They are done when companies like Berkshire and Apple literally have too much cash to deploy and have no better option that investing that cash into undervalued shares of the company. The key is, they make sense and one price and not another. Buybacks have a bad name because so many buyback programs are terribly executed.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I don't think anyone was arguing buybacks help retail park guests, unless they own shares. They are great for shareholders, no matter how many you own. They are tax efficient and my preferred capital return over dividends.

Buybacks aren't designed to manipulate anything. You have a myopic view of them, probably because you've read about the bad ones.

They are done when companies like Berkshire and Apple literally have too much cash to deploy and have no better option that investing that cash into undervalued shares of the company. The key is, they make sense and one price and not another. Buybacks have a bad name because so many buyback programs are terribly executed.

Buybacks can be used to prop up price when the product doesn’t support it...because the volume is read by the market as a false sign of demand.

I ageee they all aren’t bad...but since disney has lagged due to instability of its primary product - which is actually tv and more specifically Espn for several years...how convenient a buyback truly is, huh?

For spray tan bob

I’m not disputing that it’s good for the investor. However I’ve never seen an investor care about battling a 75 minute wait for Peter Pan in today’s heat.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

GM is another.

What I'm trying to tell you and the other chicken littles is you have to see cracks in the numbers first and they aren't there in Apple or DIS. They are stronger, not weaker.

Kodak, GM, and GE had hundreds of warning signs in their earnings that told investors the facts are changing. Disney has some warning signs in ESPN, but definitely not in Parks or Studios.

Everyone falls, but you don't short great companies because they will eventually fall. You wait for facts to back up your claim.

It’s not chicken little...it’s the long angle lens of perspective.

You are not gonna believe there is any danger to Disney...probably because I can find you far too often with a Disney shirt and lanyard payibg to go into be our guest...if I had to bet.
But that also means bias is an issue.

 

[flynnibus]

Disney has some warning signs in ESPN, but definitely not in Parks or Studios.

Everyone falls, but you don't short great companies because they will eventually fall. You wait for facts to back up your claim.

You mean facts like gains largely bolstered by price increases instead of real growth? Growth that lags behind actual price increases? Don't use revenue and profit to measure long term health when those numbers are largely floated by pure price increases.. which are not perpetual. Nor is the idea that you can keep selling and shoving more DVC into the same finite resort.

Disney's success in the last 10 years has been in 'filling in the gaps' - but in doing so they are sacrificing a lot of their breathing room.. and in turn hurting what doesn't show up in quarterly reports... The customer loyalty that results in returning generations of guests year to year.

Selling the P&R division as a growth engine for TWDC is a dangerous game.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

You mean facts like gains largely bolstered by price increases instead of real growth? Growth that lags behind actual price increases? Don't use revenue and profit to measure long term health when those numbers are largely floated by pure price increases.. which are not perpetual. Nor is the idea that you can keep selling and shoving more DVC into the same finite resort.

Disney's success in the last 10 years has been in 'filling in the gaps' - but in doing so they are sacrificing a lot of their breathing room.. and in turn hurting what doesn't show up in quarterly reports... The customer loyalty that results in returning generations of guests year to year.

Selling the P&R division as a growth engine for TWDC is a dangerous game.

Or that it’s largest operating income
And profit unit - tv - is declining from 40%

...and the second largest - attractions - is being forced to come up from 30% to bridge gap.

And how is it coming up? Not growth at all...simply due to price increase. That is unsustainable.

The CEO and board isn’t in it for the long haul.

Roy Disney is gone...so is Diane. There are no longterm “stewards” remaining.

People scoff...they have marvel and Star Wars (the artist know in the 80s as...)...what worry?

Movies are 10-12%

What about all that merch?
Again...10-12%

All that other media?

Like 5%


There is a real vulnerability in Disney...even greedy Wall Street has identified it.

They are currently robbing peter to pay paul at the themeparks.

So bob says he can fix the tv problem? That would solve all...

Let’s see it.

 

[Chef Mickey]

It’s not chicken little...it’s the long angle lens of perspective.

You are not gonna believe there is any danger to Disney...probably because I can find you far too often with a Disney shirt and lanyard payibg to go into be our guest...if I had to bet.
But that also means bias is an issue.

I am ruthless in the numbers when it comes to money. Disney's numbers are fantastic from a Parks, Resorts, and Studios perspective. As an investor, I watch ESPN/Media networks closely. You're acting like you have some idea because you prognosticate "trouble ahead" based on opinions like unrest because of parking fees. You have no idea what the future holds. No one does. We have to watch the numbers and they'll be thousands of chances to get out when the facts change. Stocks of these big companies don't go down 80% overnight. It's a slow death.

There are a lot of companies I like and I'd never buy the stock. Amazon and Netflix are two examples.

As an investor, you always have something to worry about. When you're dealing with real money, you have to rely on facts...not conjecture. AT least, I do. I am a fundamentalist investor.

 

[Chef Mickey]

Buybacks can be used to prop up price when the product doesn’t support it...because the volume is read by the market as a false sign of demand.

I ageee they all aren’t bad...but since disney has lagged due to instability of its primary product - which is actually tv and more specifically Espn for several years...how convenient a buyback truly is, huh?

For spray tan bob

I’m not disputing that it’s good for the investor. However I’ve never seen an investor care about battling a 75 minute wait for Peter Pan in today’s heat.

The bad buybacks are used to prop up share prices...no argument there. They just aren't all bad.

I've literally never waited 75 minutes for Peter Pan and feel sorry for those that think you have to.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Of course they want to increase attendance, but the bodies per square foot could be reduced, particularly in the off peak times. I believe a new 3-4 lands that supports 10,000 people can have a relieving effect to the rest of the park. You won't have an increase in attendance that keeps pace with the new space...at least, that's my opinion.

It's the reason MK is so crowded at night now...best fireworks and nighttime activities and latest hours at times.

More space is all good to me, even if they obtain their goal of more yearly guests. It will be a net positive to crowd levels, particularly in the older areas.

I would fully support and increase in footprint that had the effect of dispersing crowds.

The problem is that Disney is gone. They won’t lift a shovel or dirt on a “lightly demanded” new land that would have that effect...they will look for maximum return on investment...which means that it would have to be built to increase attendance.

I use the waterparks as an example...those weren’t built to book trips. They were for crowd dispersment that allowed higher capacity.

Well...they went from 3 to 2 and only maintain the remaining at minimal levels.

Any dollars invested now have to be justified with large and short term return to the street now. The world has changed.

 

[Chef Mickey]

Or that it’s largest operating income
And profit unit - tv - is declining from 40%

...and the second largest - attractions - is being forced to come up from 30% to bridge gap.

And how is it coming up? Not growth at all...simply due to price increase. That is unsustainable.

The CEO and board isn’t in it for the long haul.

Roy Disney is gone...so is Diane. There are no longterm “stewards” remaining.

People scoff...they have marvel and Star Wars (the artist know in the 80s as...)...what worry?

Movies are 10-12%

What about all that merch?
Again...10-12%

All that other media?

Like 5%


There is a real vulnerability in Disney...even greedy Wall Street has identified it.

They are currently robbing peter to pay paul at the themeparks.

So bob says he can fix the tv problem? That would solve all...

Let’s see it.

I'd advise you to short the stock.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I am ruthless in the numbers when it comes to money. Disney's numbers are fantastic from a Parks, Resorts, and Studios perspective. As an investor, I watch ESPN/Media networks closely. You're acting like you have some idea because you prognosticate "trouble ahead" based on opinions like unrest because of parking fees. You have no idea what the future holds. No one does. We have to watch the numbers and they'll be thousands of chances to get out when the facts change. Stocks of these big companies don't go down 80% overnight. It's a slow death.

There are a lot of companies I like and I'd never buy the stock. Amazon and Netflix are two examples.

As an investor, you always have something to worry about. When you're dealing with real money, you have to rely on facts...not conjecture. AT least, I do. I am a fundamentalist investor.

Respectfully...you don’t want to seem to believe any of the the last 5 years of financial analysis when it comes to Disney. There is a vulnerability that has been covered extensively.

You may be “ruthless” about money...but you also call yourself “chef mickey” and talk about how you want to pay more to be at a place it seems you’ve been at far too much already - it appears.

You need to pour a grain a salt on yourself in this case.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'd advise you to short the stock.

I wouldn’t take advice on Finances off a Disney board unless it had NOTHING to do with Disney.

 

[Chef Mickey]

I wouldn’t take advice on Finances off a Disney board unless it had NOTHING to do with Disney.

Stay away from individual stocks and buy shares of the VOO every month for the rest of your life.

Best investment advice you'll ever get, and I'm not joking.

 

[Chef Mickey]

Respectfully...you don’t want to seem to believe any of the the last 5 years of financial analysis when it comes to Disney. There is a vulnerability that has been covered extensively.

You may be “ruthless” about money...but you also call yourself “chef mickey” and talk about how you want to pay more to be at a place it seems you’ve been at far too much already - it appears.

You need to pour a grain a salt on yourself in this case.

Disney is a fantastic company, regardless of my online presence as Chef Mickey. The stock has outperformed the S&P over the last 5 years, just FYI and has roughly doubled the return of the S&P over the last 10 years.

You've missed out on a fantastic stock if you haven't been in DIS. My cost basis is so much lower, it could drop considerably and I'm good. So the market doesn't agree with your analysis of the last 5 years...not just me.

 

[Goofyernmost]

You just made the “Rome could never fall” statement.

Nobody ever believes something can happen...till it pops up on their twitter feed the day after it happens.

The nfl is going to fall...a lot sooner than anyone thinks. But nobody believes that.

I use two recent example of companies with huge brand rep that have fallen: Kodak and GE.

In the 1980’s...nobody would have not laughed at that. Same would have been said of sears 20 years prior.

Apple will fall.

Disney has an amazing advantage in name recognition. But travel and media are incredibly volatile. A turn on product could happen much more quickly than a behemoth corporation can adjust to it. It’s not impossible at all.

Sear is a great example of something that appealed to everyone. It wasn't that many years ago that they were king of retail. The best quality, the best prices, the best selection and so on. They were the strongest of the strong. Funny thing happened on the way to the bank, they didn't keep up with customer demand and let all they had going for them fall by the wayside. Now what is left of them is owned by K-Mart and that isn't looking real healthy at the moment. JC Penney will be following close behind. Malls were the best thing since sliced bread, the greatest idea ever. All kinds of shopping under one roof. Our local mall that once was huge, is now mostly empty stores and is on it's last legs unless some miracle happens, which it probably won't. BTW, all the stores under one roof is still a good idea, but, the elite pricing killed them.

 

[Chef Mickey]

Sear is a great example of something that appealed to everyone. It wasn't that many years ago that they were king of retail. The best quality, the best prices, the best selection and so on. They were the strongest of the strong. Funny thing happened on the way to the bank, they didn't keep up with customer demand and let all they had going for them fall by the wayside. Now what is left of them is owned by K-Mart and that isn't looking real healthy at the moment. JC Penney will be following close behind. Malls were the best thing since sliced bread, the greatest idea ever. All kinds of shopping under one roof. Our local mall that once was huge, is now mostly empty stores and is on it's last legs unless some miracle happens, which it probably won't. BTW, all the stores under one roof is still a good idea, but, the elite pricing killed them.

Yeah, and Sears is nothing like Disney. Sears ran a viciously competitive and almost zero value add business with low barriers to entry. Sears put up 10 years of disappointing sales, closing stores, shrinking margins, and flat out losses. Sears is a retail company that had nothing proprietary about their business model and got stomped by Amazon and better retailers. You still had years to cut your losses at better prices than today ($2).

Disney has a gigantic moat of proprietary IP, fantastic parks, and world class assets. Their stock also isn't in perpetual decline.

Even as a Sears investor, you could have simply looked at the earnings and had years to get out after it was evident the world was ending.

Disney is a leader and still has enormous assets that make it nearly impossible to compete with on a macro level. Physical parks, IP, iron clad brand name, and the best content in the world.

Sure, sure sure....anything can fall. Nothing indicates Disney is anywhere close to a Sears, GM, GE, or any other case you want to throw out there...yet. When the facts change, I change but the numbers indicate Disney isn't losing its grip on its key market. Even the media networks with all the worries about ESPN are still hugely profitable and even grew in the last quarter if memory serves.

When Disney releases their streaming platform, that will be another huge growth driver.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Sear is a great example of something that appealed to everyone. It wasn't that many years ago that they were king of retail. The best quality, the best prices, the best selection and so on. They were the strongest of the strong. Funny thing happened on the way to the bank, they didn't keep up with customer demand and let all they had going for them fall by the wayside. Now what is left of them is owned by K-Mart and that isn't looking real healthy at the moment. JC Penney will be following close behind. Malls were the best thing since sliced bread, the greatest idea ever. All kinds of shopping under one roof. Our local mall that once was huge, is now mostly empty stores and is on it's last legs unless some miracle happens, which it probably won't. BTW, all the stores under one roof is still a good idea, but, the elite pricing killed them.

The mall dynamic is kinda complicated

Online is the big one...but other factors are more telling of the overall economy.

The “growing” stores? TJX, dollar tree and aldi...
Walmart just leveled off a 7 year decline...

The only malls/shopping centers that hold steady now are those that sell luxury items...designer and high end.

What does it mean? The middle class is destroyed. Only the haves Buy and the lower class can’t afford Walmart.

Ok...tangent for another day.

Parking fees still suck

 

[Goofyernmost]

Yeah, and Sears is nothing like Disney. Sears ran a viciously competitive and almost zero value add business with low barriers to entry. Sears put up 10 years of disappointing sales, closing stores, shrinking margins, and flat out losses. Sears is a retail company that had nothing proprietary about their business model and got stomped by Amazon and better retailers. You still had years to cut your losses at better prices than today ($2).

Disney has a gigantic moat of proprietary IP, fantastic parks, and world class assets. Their stock also isn't in perpetual decline.

Even as a Sears investor, you could have simply looked at the earnings and had years to get out after it was evident the world was ending.

Disney is a leader and still has enormous assets that make it nearly impossible to compete with on a macro level. Physical parks, IP, iron clad brand name, and the best content in the world.

Sure, sure sure....anything can fall. Nothing indicates Disney is anywhere close to a Sears, GM, GE, or any other case you want to throw out there...yet. When the facts change, I change but the numbers indicate Disney isn't losing its grip on its key market. Even the media networks with all the worries about ESPN are still hugely profitable and even grew in the last quarter if memory serves.

When Disney releases their streaming platform, that will be another huge growth driver.

My point was it was considered bullet proof. How it became riddled with bullet holes is completely unimportant. Every business regardless of it's mission, can be sunk in many different ways.

 

[Goofyernmost]

The mall dynamic is kinda complicated

Online is the big one...but other factors are more telling of the overall economy.

The “growing” stores? TJX, dollar tree and aldi...
Walmart just leveled off a 7 year decline...

The only malls/shopping centers that hold steady now are those that sell luxury items...designer and high end.

What does it mean? The middle class is destroyed. Only the haves Buy and the lower class can’t afford Walmart.

Ok...tangent for another day.

Parking fees still suck

True there were a lot of things that happen both positively and negatively for malls. First the downtown shopping was out of favor due to parking and endless walking in all kinds of weather. The strip malls that at least had ample parking (free by the way) and eventually started to knock out walls between stores to keep people from having to go outside again. That could only work in certain places but the idea that all of the stores connected in some way was a good idea, and it was. But, the pricing got out of hand due to higher rent prices for the stores and other fees. Then along came the big box stores which for the most part seemed to stock the entire world, but, they just have a lot of the same thing and surprisingly have very little choices just large quantities of the same thing. It also put people outside again and having to either walk or drive their car from one location to the other. I think it is also on it's way out, but, there doesn't seem to be anything really new on the horizon. Malls could come back, but, will it be in time to save some of the ones currently on life support.

My weak logic is always asking the question for mall owners, wouldn't it be better to operate on a smaller profit margin then just close out everything. Probably not what with bankruptcy protection and all.

 

[Chef Mickey]

My point was it was considered bullet proof. How it became riddled with bullet holes is completely unimportant. Every business regardless of it's mission, can be sunk in many different ways.

Yeah, but some are harder than others, which was my point. Only uniformed people ever thought Sears was bulletproof. Like I said, they didn't have anything amazing or proprietary about their business. It's kind of like iPhone. You know why people want it? iOS...proprietary. Even Android copying the entire OS didn't keep Apple customers from buying iPhones.

 

[note2001]

In no way do I think watching your money means you’re cheap. I’ll put my financial acumen up against anyone. I actually watch my money like a hawk. A huge part of my life is money. It’s what I do. I’m highly interested in getting the best deal possible in all of the boring things. Food, Electricity, insurance, appliances, financial products, etc. People waste ungodly amounts of money, particularly in my field (finance). But when I play, I play really hard whether it’s vacation or discretionary things I buy. I still negotiate hard on cars and where I can.

Dad? Hey! You remembered your passwords!