News Reedy Creek Improvement District and the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District

[GoofGoof]

DeSantis’ public statements are not stupid; they are calculated.

It comes down to a simple question: Would DeSantis rather win the Republican Primary or the Disney lawsuit?

NBC News covers his strategy in this May 8 article: Ron DeSantis bets big on his Disney feud

DeSantis cannot win the general if he doesn't win the primary, meaning he has to appeal to those "Ultra MAGA Republicans" President Biden rails against.

Earlier this year when it looked like Disney was just going to roll over and let DeSantis have his way, there was a view among some that this was bad for DeSantis. A victory in early 2023 is quickly forgotten by primary season.

By fighting back, Disney might very well be helping DeSantis among those he needs the most.

According to the previously mentioned NBC News article, three different surveys all say the same thing: Republicans are siding with DeSantis.

DeSantis doesn't particularly care who controls Disney. He just needs to keep the lawsuit alive through primary season.

The problem is he’s fading in the primary polls now. Go back a few months and DeSantis was polling further ahead of Biden in a head to head general election poll than Trump. Now it’s the opposite with Trump looking stronger than DeSantis. That decline in favorability vs Biden directly correlates to DeSantis dropping in the primary polls. Why? At least in part because some people just want someone who can beat Biden. He was supposed to be that guy, but moving further right to try to win the primary actually hurt DeSantis instead of helping him. He lost more people than he gained. It’s not just the Disney thing, but I think that is a big part of his national drop. Epic fail and miscalculation.

 

[el_super]

Did you miss the prominently displayed banner behind Claude Kirk and Roy Disney?

Yeah but at that point in time, Disney World still included EPCOT. I was looking to see if there was someone out there that voted on the enabling charter that later came back and said "we didn't care if they built EPCOT."

 

[Heppenheimer]

Oh, lord, yes. Nothing at all like MCO today.

I've flown out of enough military air bases to imagine what it must have been like.

 

[mikejs78]

DeSantis cannot win the general if he doesn't win the primary, meaning he has to appeal to those "Ultra MAGA Republicans" President Biden rails against.

By fighting back, Disney might very well be helping DeSantis among those he needs the most.

According to the previously mentioned NBC News article, three different surveys all say the same thing: Republicans are siding with DeSantis.

I think this is an overly-simplistic way of looking at it. DeSantis gained popularity initially because he was an alternative to Trump who didn't have the baggage of Trump. He was looked at as a sane alternative to the sizable minority in the GOP that doesn't like Trump. DeSantis needs to keep those people (which represent about 30-40% of the party, even today), plus win enough MAGA people over to get a plurality of delegates in the primary.

Even in the NBC article - yes, Republicans are siding with DeSantis at a rate of about 65%-35%. But DeSantis needs that 35% - most of that 35% would probably support more of a moderate and likely has a distaste for Trump. There's a large segment of that 65% who agree with him, but won't vote for anyone other than Trump. So by going ultra-MAGA by continuing this fight against Disney, DeSantis is betting he can not alienate that 35% and peel off enough of the 65% from Trump to win the nomination. That's questionable, and I think he's losing that 35%.

Not to mention the money angle. DeSantis doesn't have a personal war chest like Trump does, and so he needs money to finance a presidential campaign. And right now, the donor class is souring on him for a number of reasons, one of which is the Disney fiasco.

I think he's sabatoging himeslf for the primary as well as the general.

 

[Lilofan]

I think this is an overly-simplistic way of looking at it. DeSantis gained popularity initially because he was an alternative to Trump who didn't have the baggage of Trump. He was looked at as a sane alternative to the sizable minority in the GOP that doesn't like Trump. DeSantis needs to keep those people (which represent about 30-40% of the party, even today), plus win enough MAGA people over to get a plurality of delegates in the primary.

Even in the NBC article - yes, Republicans are siding with DeSantis at a rate of about 65%-35%. But DeSantis needs that 35% - most of that 35% would probably support more of a moderate and likely has a distaste for Trump. There's a large segment of that 65% who agree with him, but won't vote for anyone other than Trump. So by going ultra-MAGA by continuing this fight against Disney, DeSantis is betting he can not alienate that 35% and peel off enough of the 65% from Trump to win the nomination. That's questionable, and I think he's losing that 35%.

Not to mention the money angle. DeSantis doesn't have a personal war chest like Trump does, and so he needs money to finance a presidential campaign. And right now, the donor class is souring on him for a number of reasons, one of which is the Disney fiasco.

I think he's sabatoging himeslf for the primary as well as the general.

Forbes reported in 2022, DeSantis net worth was $320K and still had $20K in student loans. He clearly needs massive donations to pursue his dreams.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

I think this is an overly-simplistic way of looking at it. DeSantis gained popularity initially because he was an alternative to Trump who didn't have the baggage of Trump. He was looked at as a sane alternative to the sizable minority in the GOP that doesn't like Trump. DeSantis needs to keep those people (which represent about 30-40% of the party, even today), plus win enough MAGA people over to get a plurality of delegates in the primary.

Even in the NBC article - yes, Republicans are siding with DeSantis at a rate of about 65%-35%. But DeSantis needs that 35% - most of that 35% would probably support more of a moderate and likely has a distaste for Trump. There's a large segment of that 65% who agree with him, but won't vote for anyone other than Trump. So by going ultra-MAGA by continuing this fight against Disney, DeSantis is betting he can not alienate that 35% and peel off enough of the 65% from Trump to win the nomination. That's questionable, and I think he's losing that 35%.

Not to mention the money angle. DeSantis doesn't have a personal war chest like Trump does, and so he needs money to finance a presidential campaign. And right now, the donor class is souring on him for a number of reasons, one of which is the Disney fiasco.

I think he's sabatoging himeslf for the primary as well as the general.

Negative partisanship is the strongest force in American politics. If DeSantis is the nominee, he'll have the 35% because more people will be voting against Biden than voting for the Republican, not matter who the Republican is, just like Biden voters will be voting against Trump more than voting for Biden.

The last person who won because people were voting for him rather than against his opponent was Obama in 2008.

Also, DeSantis has a bigger war chest than Trump.

 

[LAKid53]

Forbes reported in 2022, DeSantis net worth was $320K and still had $20K in student loans. He clearly needs massive donations to pursue his dreams.

The governor's job doesn't pay that much....

 

[seascape]

DeSantis lost my vote and will never get it back. If he wins the nomination I will vote for the Libertarian.

 

[afterabme]

It's funny to think that TIA was once the big travel airport in the area.

Still nicer to fly in and out of than MCO

 

[mkt]

Still nicer to fly in and out of than MCO

If time wasn't an issue, flying into MIA and taking brightline to Orlando would be preferable to me than dealing with MCO.

 

[LAKid53]

If time wasn't an issue, flying into MIA and taking brightline to Orlando would be preferable to me than dealing with MCO.

I prefer Ft. Lauderdale's airport to MIA.

 

[mkt]

I prefer Ft. Lauderdale's airport to MIA.

If they had a lounge, then I'd say yes. But since I enjoy getting fitshaced for free before flying, then MIA is my preferred choice.

 

[Figgy1]

If time wasn't an issue, flying into MIA and taking brightline to Orlando would be preferable to me than dealing with MCO.

I prefer Ft. Lauderdale's airport to MIA.

OEA

 

[mkt]

OEA

I don't have that kind of money
For work travel, I do enjoy the Delta lounge quite a bit. But personal travel is generally on Jetblue or Southwest, because dad life, and there's no lounges near them.

 

[Figgy1]

I don't have that kind of money
For work travel, I do enjoy the Delta lounge quite a bit. But personal travel is generally on Jetblue or Southwest, because dad life, and there's no lounges near them.

You don't need money, just a sense of adventure

 

[sullyinMT]

He's precluded from using most of those funds for a run for president.

Not if it’s “the will of the people.” Special session 2023 confirmed.

 

[Sir_Cliff]

DeSantis is behind Trump in the polls.

When you are the short stack, you go all in.

DeSantis is pushing all in.

I agree with those who would raise an eyebrow at the idea that what DeSantis wants to be talking most about this as he launches a presidential bid is his legal battle with Disney. Does he really want to be standing on that stage announcing his candidacy and telling people to vote for him as the one leader who had the courage to take on Walt Disney World? I would think he'd want to be talking about the legislation he did pass that makes him look like an effective culture warrior, not a protracted and costly legal battle with Disney over their First Amendment rights that his legislation sparked and which could go either way.

 

[PizzaPlanet]

Imagine if the governor did win and they had to put him in the Hall of Presidents.

 

[seascape]

Imagine if the governor did win and they had to put him in the Hall of Presidents.

I hope if that happens Disney would close it for a multiyear referb that would take his entire time in office. Then they could reopen with the next President and just have him sit and smile.

 

[GoofGoof]

Negative partisanship is the strongest force in American politics. If DeSantis is the nominee, he'll have the 35% because more people will be voting against Biden than voting for the Republican, not matter who the Republican is, just like Biden voters will be voting against Trump more than voting for Biden.

The last person who won because people were voting for him rather than against his opponent was Obama in 2008.

Also, DeSantis has a bigger war chest than Trump.

Except there aren’t just 2 parties. Independents make up more voters than either party has. In order to win in a national election you need to get the independent vote in swing states. Moving right of Trump won’t help and there’s no way to undo that now and pivot. The war chest needs to be refilled. He doesn’t have enough to finish the primaries let alone the general election. Donors are key to his viability and that well is starting to dry up.

You are also assuming that if DeSantis is the candidate MAGA Trump voters will back him, but they may just stay home. Ask Hillary how that works out. She really felt the Bern.