I think a full blown recession is inevitable at this point. With the cost of gas and everything else going up it's bound to happen. This summer I think will be fine as many are still using saved up money from stimulus checks. At some point that will end.
The prices have risen so much that it’s gonna limit spending…
A recession is the quickest way to reduce inflation. Painful way, but that’s how economics works. The economy heats up too much and results in inflation so cooling the economy down has the opposite effect. It’s possible to cool it at the right pace where it’s never an actual recession or it’s a short lived and mild one, but there’s no good way to control that. I also fear we waited too long to pull back. We should have been raising interest rates several years before Covid. If we had done that we would be sitting in much better shape today but it may have made 2020 and early 2021 even more frightening economically.
Well as far as the stimulus money went…if you got it all…you don’t have much in the grand scheme of things…
I have this feeling that as bad as Covid was to the travel industry that this is going to end up much worse.
Anyone that has to take out a bank loan to pay for travel vacations really needs to do a reality check on priorities.
Straight up, yes, but it’s not always cut and dry. For example if someone needs a new roof or a new heater they may take a home equity loan and borrow cheap money against their home‘s value to pay for it instead of using money they have saved for a vacation. If rates go up, home values drop and lenders get more strict on who they will lend to it may be that people have to spend “vacation money” on those things instead of borrowing to pay for it. During recessions people with disposable income also generally tend to save more early on because they don’t know how much it will impact them. That often means cancelling or putting off a trip until things start to stabilize. Credit cards are a big one for a lot of people. Maybe I charge my Summer trip to WDW on a CC because I know I usually get a bonus in March and/or a tax refund and I can pay it down then.
Know the recession well. I was one of the lucky ones who survived the brutal layoffs in my firm in 2008 and was rewarded with keeping my job , given more responsibility and no raises for three years ( hooray? ) . We cut back in spending habits in many areas as a family and a number of small businesses in my area struggled to survive and some just closed up for good.
I’m the resident “pro-recession” guy…but only when it comes to wdw.
You did well.
I wouldn’t never ask/want to know how many do??
They have already broken ground and started construction and as long as the tax credits aren’t put in jeopardy they will probably follow through. As we’ve said numerous times, Disney cannot just leave FL. WDW cannot be moved. But this is not really about current projects it’s about what companies will do in the future, especially ones not tied directly to FL specifically. I think it’s pretty short sighted to assume there’s no cost to these types of policies. They certainly benefit politicians and political donations but there’s a cost long term that’s difficult to quantify.
As anyone in Central FL can attest to, just because ground breaking has already taken place, it doesn't mean you have to move in. For example:
Absolutely agree. 2024 is a long ways off and it’s possible the whole project could fall through or even get downsized. The original thought was the campus Disney is building is much larger than the announced jobs and could result in many more jobs than initially proposed.As anyone in Central FL can attest to, just because ground breaking has already taken place, it doesn't mean you have to move in. For example:
Even then, as long as there are states with heavy taxation, and public health and regulatory burdens like California and New York, Florida will retain it's pro-business status, albeit somewhat diminished.
I know many people with new golf clubs.
The porch pirates were in full swing cruising the local streets looking for Amazon packages to swipe during the recession.
I don’t think FL is being compared to CA or NY for attracting companies, but there are many other states that also have low cost of living (Aka lower wage workers) and also good tax credits that are also very pro-business. Not being “as bad as CA” for businesses is a very low bar
I don’t think Disney’s move to Florida has much to do with tax breaks…or “business crushing taxes” in California. It’s much more sinister if we’re honest?
Didn’t Eisner fire a number of Animation cast after the horrible Treasure Planet movie. ?
