News Reedy Creek Improvement District and the Central Florida Tourism Oversight District

[Sirwalterraleigh]

This is true, but there has been an effort made for years now to diversify as much as possible in the state overall. It’s never a great idea to have your entire economy so dependent on one industry, especially one like travel and tourism that is very volatile and very prone to downturns when there is a macro economic blip. The other issue is most of the jobs are lower paying, service type jobs. Attracting industries like aerospace and pharmaceuticals is appealing because they bring in higher paying, more stable jobs. The point of all of this is that this “attack” against TWDC is eye opening for these other employers potentially looking to move facilities or jobs to FL. Other industries are not as tied physically to the state and many states offer tax breaks and pro-business policies without the political uncertainty. It’s hard to commit to multi-year investments when things are so unstable.

It’s certainly the prerogative of state lawmakers to prioritize other issues over the economy, but that comes at a price. An economic slowdown is coming for the whole country, likely a recession. Nobody knows how bad a slowdown or how long it will last but we do know from history that travel and tourism are hit first when the economy slows. FL has a crisis with homeowners insurance already and a major housing bubble primed to burst too. Now is the time to be supporting the economy and protecting the workers but it seems there may be an attitude that it’s too good to fail and the good times will last forever.

I accept that…they have been doing that for along time.

But how do they do it? Tax shelters and the promise of low labor costs.

Same old hook.


But let’s zoom out and take a look at the litmus test: it’s been a ridiculous 14 years since a recession other than a 7 week government controlled hiccup…

So when/if one hits…what’s gonna happen in Florida?

I think it won’t surprise much. That is how you know “how far they’ve come”? Always.

 

[GoofGoof]

I accept that…they have been doing that for along time.

But how do they do it? Tax shelters and the promise of low labor costs.

Same old hook.


But let’s zoom out and take a look at the litmus test: it’s been a ridiculous 14 years since a recession other than a 7 week government controlled hiccup…

So when/if one hits…what’s gonna happen in Florida?

I think it won’t surprise much. That is how you know “how far they’ve come”? Always.

I’d say the appeal is (1) low tax and or available tax credits, (2) low labor cost and (3) in the recent past a political culture that was very pro-business. If you potentially go after tax credits or “special incentives” for certain companies you are losing part or all of benefits #1 and #3. There are lots of states that offer low labor costs so it’s difficult to compete on that one alone.

I don’t disagree on your last point. I think some people are being very short sighted and looking at 2020 and saying that a recession is no big deal but that was not at all a traditional recession. Could be a bad scene if a full blown recession breaks out.

 

[Jrb1979]

I’d say the appeal is (1) low tax and or available tax credits, (2) low labor cost and (3) in the recent past a political culture that was very pro-business. If you potentially go after tax credits or “special incentives” for certain companies you are losing part or all of benefits #1 and #3. There are lots of states that offer low labor costs so it’s difficult to compete on that one alone.

I don’t disagree on your last point. I think some people are being very short sighted and looking at 2020 and saying that a recession is no big deal but that was not at all a traditional recession. Could be a bad scene if a full blown recession breaks out.

I think a full blown recession is inevitable at this point. With the cost of gas and everything else going up it's bound to happen. This summer I think will be fine as many are still using saved up money from stimulus checks. At some point that will end.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think a full blown recession is inevitable at this point. With the cost of gas and everything else going up it's bound to happen. This summer I think will be fine as many are still using saved up money from stimulus checks. At some point that will end.

The prices have risen so much that it’s gonna limit spending…

Because the flip side of that is the interest rate rise and banks tightening up on lending/risk. I saw an estimate that they are lowering credit limits at a rate that eclipses the levels they did before/after the housing bubble crash.

Uh oh

 

[GoofGoof]

I think a full blown recession is inevitable at this point. With the cost of gas and everything else going up it's bound to happen. This summer I think will be fine as many are still using saved up money from stimulus checks. At some point that will end.

A recession is the quickest way to reduce inflation. Painful way, but that’s how economics works. The economy heats up too much and results in inflation so cooling the economy down has the opposite effect. It’s possible to cool it at the right pace where it’s never an actual recession or it’s a short lived and mild one, but there’s no good way to control that. I also fear we waited too long to pull back. We should have been raising interest rates several years before Covid. If we had done that we would be sitting in much better shape today but it may have made 2020 and early 2021 even more frightening economically.

As far as stimulus money, the people who really needed it have spent it. Others, who didn’t see much of a change in earnings, may still have some in savings and may be looking to spend it now. The downside to raising interest rates is it costs more to “borrow” money through home equity loans and/or credit cards and even if it’s not a great financial plan to do so, many people pay for vacations that way. Bad for travel and tourism.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

A recession is the quickest way to reduce inflation. Painful way, but that’s how economics works. The economy heats up too much and results in inflation so cooling the economy down has the opposite effect. It’s possible to cool it at the right pace where it’s never an actual recession or it’s a short lived and mild one, but there’s no good way to control that. I also fear we waited too long to pull back. We should have been raising interest rates several years before Covid. If we had done that we would be sitting in much better shape today but it may have made 2020 and early 2021 even more frightening economically.

As far as stimulus money, the people who really needed it have spent it. Others, who didn’t see much of a change in earnings, may still have some in savings and may be looking to spend it now. The downside to raising interest rates is it costs more to “borrow” money through home equity loans and/or credit cards and even if it’s not a great financial plan to do so, many people pay for vacations that way. Bad for travel and tourism.

Well as far as the stimulus money went…if you got it all…you don’t have much in the grand scheme of things…

So yeah…big ole vacay in 3/22 to “the world” maybe…

But there prolly not more of that coming. Fired those bullets. That’s also what the business guys that concentrate on travel are saying.

 

[Jrb1979]

Well as far as the stimulus money went…if you got it all…you don’t have much in the grand scheme of things…

So yeah…big ole vacay in 3/22 to “the world” maybe…

But there prolly not more of that coming. Fired those bullets. That’s also what the business guys that concentrate on travel are saying.

I have this feeling that as bad as Covid was to the travel industry that this is going to end up much worse.

 

[Lilofan]

A recession is the quickest way to reduce inflation. Painful way, but that’s how economics works. The economy heats up too much and results in inflation so cooling the economy down has the opposite effect. It’s possible to cool it at the right pace where it’s never an actual recession or it’s a short lived and mild one, but there’s no good way to control that. I also fear we waited too long to pull back. We should have been raising interest rates several years before Covid. If we had done that we would be sitting in much better shape today but it may have made 2020 and early 2021 even more frightening economically.

As far as stimulus money, the people who really needed it have spent it. Others, who didn’t see much of a change in earnings, may still have some in savings and may be looking to spend it now. The downside to raising interest rates is it costs more to “borrow” money through home equity loans and/or credit cards and even if it’s not a great financial plan to do so, many people pay for vacations that way. Bad for travel and tourism.

Anyone that has to take out a bank loan to pay for travel vacations really needs to do a reality check on priorities.

 

[GoofGoof]

Anyone that has to take out a bank loan to pay for travel vacations really needs to do a reality check on priorities.

Straight up, yes, but it’s not always cut and dry. For example if someone needs a new roof or a new heater they may take a home equity loan and borrow cheap money against their home‘s value to pay for it instead of using money they have saved for a vacation. If rates go up, home values drop and lenders get more strict on who they will lend to it may be that people have to spend “vacation money” on those things instead of borrowing to pay for it. During recessions people with disposable income also generally tend to save more early on because they don’t know how much it will impact them. That often means cancelling or putting off a trip until things start to stabilize. Credit cards are a big one for a lot of people. Maybe I charge my Summer trip to WDW on a CC because I know I usually get a bonus in March and/or a tax refund and I can pay it down then.

 

[Lilofan]

Straight up, yes, but it’s not always cut and dry. For example if someone needs a new roof or a new heater they may take a home equity loan and borrow cheap money against their home‘s value to pay for it instead of using money they have saved for a vacation. If rates go up, home values drop and lenders get more strict on who they will lend to it may be that people have to spend “vacation money” on those things instead of borrowing to pay for it. During recessions people with disposable income also generally tend to save more early on because they don’t know how much it will impact them. That often means cancelling or putting off a trip until things start to stabilize. Credit cards are a big one for a lot of people. Maybe I charge my Summer trip to WDW on a CC because I know I usually get a bonus in March and/or a tax refund and I can pay it down then.

Know the recession well. I was one of the lucky ones who survived the brutal layoffs in my firm in 2008 and was rewarded with keeping my job , given more responsibility and no raises for three years ( hooray? ) . We cut back in spending habits in many areas as a family and a number of small businesses in my area struggled to survive and some just closed up for good.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I have this feeling that as bad as Covid was to the travel industry that this is going to end up much worse.

I’m the resident “pro-recession” guy…but only when it comes to wdw.

The roughly 7 year recession cycle has been a stabilizer to the Disney parks since 1955. It’s been great for the customer and forced Disney to make better management decisions.

Iger sidestepped the last one. Brilliant business move by him but not good for the parks longterm. And after that recession - the billionaires have systematically leaned on the government to prohibit the next one. They weren’t willing to suffer the loses - which were of course 100% temporary - so the underlying markets and mechanisms are manipulated in a way that appears to be unsustainable.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Know the recession well. I was one of the lucky ones who survived the brutal layoffs in my firm in 2008 and was rewarded with keeping my job , given more responsibility and no raises for three years ( hooray? ) . We cut back in spending habits in many areas as a family and a number of small businesses in my area struggled to survive and some just closed up for good.

You did well.

My next question is what was the price the last time you bought DIS?

Not so good…I’m gonna guess?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Anyone that has to take out a bank loan to pay for travel vacations really needs to do a reality check on priorities.

I wouldn’t never ask/want to know how many do??

 

[GoofGoof]

Considering that even Disney itself is still pushing forward with it's Lake Nona campus, I'm not losing any sleep over this.

They have already broken ground and started construction and as long as the tax credits aren’t put in jeopardy they will probably follow through. As we’ve said numerous times, Disney cannot just leave FL. WDW cannot be moved. But this is not really about current projects it’s about what companies will do in the future, especially ones not tied directly to FL specifically. I think it’s pretty short sighted to assume there’s no cost to these types of policies. They certainly benefit politicians and political donations but there’s a cost long term that’s difficult to quantify.

 

[Brian]

They have already broken ground and started construction and as long as the tax credits aren’t put in jeopardy they will probably follow through. As we’ve said numerous times, Disney cannot just leave FL. WDW cannot be moved. But this is not really about current projects it’s about what companies will do in the future, especially ones not tied directly to FL specifically. I think it’s pretty short sighted to assume there’s no cost to these types of policies. They certainly benefit politicians and political donations but there’s a cost long term that’s difficult to quantify.

As anyone in Central FL can attest to, just because ground breaking has already taken place, it doesn't mean you have to move in. For example:

. Even then, as long as there are states with heavy taxation, and excessive public health and regulatory burdens like California and New York, Florida will maintain a pro-business reputation, albeit somewhat diminished.

 

[GoofGoof]

As anyone in Central FL can attest to, just because ground breaking has already taken place, it doesn't mean you have to move in. For example:

Even then, as long as there are states with heavy taxation, and public health and regulatory burdens like California and New York, Florida will retain it's pro-business status, albeit somewhat diminished.

Absolutely agree. 2024 is a long ways off and it’s possible the whole project could fall through or even get downsized. The original thought was the campus Disney is building is much larger than the announced jobs and could result in many more jobs than initially proposed.

I don’t think FL is being compared to CA or NY for attracting companies, but there are many other states that also have low cost of living (Aka lower wage workers) and also good tax credits that are also very pro-business. Not being “as bad as CA” for businesses is a very low bar

 

[Imhere]

Well as far as the stimulus money went…if you got it all…you don’t have much in the grand scheme of things…

So yeah…big ole vacay in 3/22 to “the world” maybe…

I know many people with new golf clubs.

 

[Lilofan]

Well as far as the stimulus money went…if you got it all…you don’t have much in the grand scheme of things…

So yeah…big ole vacay in 3/22 to “the world” maybe…

But there prolly not more of that coming. Fired those bullets. That’s also what the business guys that concentrate on travel are saying.

The porch pirates were in full swing cruising the local streets looking for Amazon packages to swipe during the recession.

 

[el_super]

I don’t think FL is being compared to CA or NY for attracting companies, but there are many other states that also have low cost of living (Aka lower wage workers) and also good tax credits that are also very pro-business. Not being “as bad as CA” for businesses is a very low bar

Businesses have been trying to leave "business unfriendly" California for years if not decades, and it still hasn't really worked. Whatever it is, California is still doing something right for business.

Lest we forget: there's still a building at Hollywood Studios called "Feature Animation."

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Businesses have been trying to leave "business unfriendly" California for years if not decades, and it still hasn't really worked. Whatever it is, California is still doing something right for business.

Lest we forget: there's still a building at Hollywood Studios called "Feature Animation."

I don’t think Disney’s move to Florida has much to do with tax breaks…or “business crushing taxes” in California. It’s much more sinister if we’re honest?