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Raya and the Last Dragon

khlaylav

Member
Without diving into the other stuff, that they're moving forward with this hybrid model for Black Widow would suggest to me that the cut from Premium Access for both this and Mulan are good enough that they're comfortable with putting Widow up.
 

MisterPenguin

Fully Pfizered!
Premium Member
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Raya had, according the Nielsen, 355,000,000 minutes of view time.

Ray is 112 minutes long.

That's the movie watched 3,169,642 times.

At $30 a pop is: $95,000,000.

Now, some household may have seen it more than once, so, let's take 10% off...

$85,000,000 in the first weekend of home viewing.

Plus $84M in theaters so far: $169M.

That doesn't seem like a lot for a Disney animation blockbuster, but, we still have more weeks to go. And, the home viewing premium doesn't have to be shared with theaters. $85M in PPV is equivalent in profit to $170M in theaters.
 

seascape

Well-Known Member
View attachment 544315

Raya had, according the Nielsen, 355,000,000 minutes of view time.

Ray is 112 minutes long.

That's the movie watched 3,169,642 times.

At $30 a pop is: $95,000,000.

Now, some household may have seen it more than once, so, let's take 10% off...

$85,000,000 in the first weekend of home viewing.

Plus $84M in theaters so far: $169M.

That doesn't seem like a lot for a Disney animation blockbuster, but, we still have more weeks to go. And, the home viewing premium doesn't have to be shared with theaters. $85M in PPV is equivalent in profit to $170M in theaters.
If children are like my niece was with the Little Mermaid you will need to deduct a lit more than 10% . It was constantly playing. I would deduct over 50%.
 

Ripken10

Well-Known Member
About half of all D+ subscribers are adults with no children.

Also, musicals are more repeatable than non-musicals.
Yeah but kids watch the same move over and over again. My son will watch Cars 3 times in a row. He watched Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs 3 times yesterday. Doesn't matter to some kids whether it is a musical or not, they will watch the same movie over and over again non stop all day long. That is what the poster was saying, and I agree. These numbers are also estimates, so...
 

MisterPenguin

Fully Pfizered!
Premium Member
Yeah but kids watch the same move over and over again. My son will watch Cars 3 times in a row. He watched Snow White and the Seven Dwarfs 3 times yesterday. Doesn't matter to some kids whether it is a musical or not, they will watch the same movie over and over again non stop all day long. That is what the poster was saying, and I agree. These numbers are also estimates, so...

Kids are really into Muay Thai martial arts!

;)
 

MisterPenguin

Fully Pfizered!
Premium Member
View attachment 544315

Raya had, according the Nielsen, 355,000,000 minutes of view time.

Raya is 112 minutes long.

That's the movie watched 3,169,642 times.

At $30 a pop is: $95,000,000.

Now, some household may have seen it more than once, so, let's take 10% off...

$85,000,000 in the first weekend of home viewing.

Plus $84M in theaters so far: $169M.

That doesn't seem like a lot for a Disney animation blockbuster, but, we still have more weeks to go. And, the home viewing premium doesn't have to be shared with theaters. $85M in PPV is equivalent in profit to $170M in theaters.
Update: There has been more than double the number of watched minutes of Raya according to Neilsen from week ending 3/7 (355M minutes) to week ending 3/14 (390M minutes).

Assuming people watch it straight through, it has been viewed 6.7M times.

At $30 a pop, that's $201M income unshared with theaters.

Now, as has been discussed above, Disney films do tend to be rewatched... a lot. Moana and Frozen 2, e.g., keep showing up on the top ten movies streamed every week for the past four months. OTOH, Raya is not a musical, which is often the hallmark of a most-watched movie.

So, depending on one's guesstimate of rewatches, if you take off a percentage, then Raya's income on premium streaming in its first two weeks is...

- 0% = $201M
-10% = $181M
-20% = $161M
-30% = $141M
-40% = $121M
-50% = $101M

And even if there are a lot of rewatches... that is then a testament to its popularity.
 

MisterPenguin

Fully Pfizered!
Premium Member
A video production company that are experts in digital effects and have picked up stunt and martial art abilities from their experience discuss Raya with one of the martial artists / stunt actors who motion captured some of the fight scenes for Disney...

 

MisterPenguin

Fully Pfizered!
Premium Member
Update: There has been more than double the number of watched minutes of Raya according to Neilsen from week ending 3/7 (355M minutes) to week ending 3/14 (390M minutes).

Assuming people watch it straight through, it has been viewed 6.7M times.

At $30 a pop, that's $201M income unshared with theaters.

Now, as has been discussed above, Disney films do tend to be rewatched... a lot. Moana and Frozen 2, e.g., keep showing up on the top ten movies streamed every week for the past four months. OTOH, Raya is not a musical, which is often the hallmark of a most-watched movie.

So, depending on one's guesstimate of rewatches, if you take off a percentage, then Raya's income on premium streaming in its first two weeks is...

- 0% = $201M
-10% = $181M
-20% = $161M
-30% = $141M
-40% = $121M
-50% = $101M

And even if there are a lot of rewatches... that is then a testament to its popularity.

Another 203M minutes of Raya watched. That's another 1.8M views of the movie.

Assuming people watch it straight through, it has been viewed, in total, 8.5M times on D+ Premium.

At $30 a pop, that's $254M income unshared with theaters.

Now, as has been discussed above, Disney films do tend to be rewatched... a lot. Moana and Frozen 2, e.g., keep showing up on the top ten movies streamed every week for the past four months. OTOH, Raya is not a musical, which is often the hallmark of a most-watched movie.

So, depending on one's guesstimate of rewatches, if you take off a percentage, then Raya's income on premium streaming in its first 3 weeks is...

- 0% = $254M
-10% = $229M
-20% = $203M
-30% = $177M
-40% = $152M
-50% = $127M

In theaters: $93M worldwide.
 

seascape

Well-Known Member
Another 203M minutes of Raya watched. That's another 1.8M views of the movie.

Assuming people watch it straight through, it has been viewed, in total, 8.5M times on D+ Premium.

At $30 a pop, that's $254M income unshared with theaters.

Now, as has been discussed above, Disney films do tend to be rewatched... a lot. Moana and Frozen 2, e.g., keep showing up on the top ten movies streamed every week for the past four months. OTOH, Raya is not a musical, which is often the hallmark of a most-watched movie.

So, depending on one's guesstimate of rewatches, if you take off a percentage, then Raya's income on premium streaming in its first 3 weeks is...

- 0% = $254M
-10% = $229M
-20% = $203M
-30% = $177M
-40% = $152M
-50% = $127M

In theaters: $93M worldwide.
Remember that those who pay the $30.00 once will be able to keep watching it for as long as they want until it comes out on Disney+ and then can keep watching it as long as they subscribe.
 

MisterPenguin

Fully Pfizered!
Premium Member
"The Numbers" has Raya at $98M in theaters. Disney gets (as a rule of thumb, half, which is) $49M.

Raya's purported budget is $100M. Using the rule of thumb for movies, the actual cost with advertising was $150M.

So, with streaming income anywhere between $130M - $200M, it is clear that Raya was profitable.
 

MisterPenguin

Fully Pfizered!
Premium Member
Another 203M minutes of Raya watched. That's another 1.8M views of the movie.

Assuming people watch it straight through, it has been viewed, in total, 8.5M times on D+ Premium.

At $30 a pop, that's $254M income unshared with theaters.

Now, as has been discussed above, Disney films do tend to be rewatched... a lot. Moana and Frozen 2, e.g., keep showing up on the top ten movies streamed every week for the past four months. OTOH, Raya is not a musical, which is often the hallmark of a most-watched movie.

So, depending on one's guesstimate of rewatches, if you take off a percentage, then Raya's income on premium streaming in its first 3 weeks is...

- 0% = $254M
-10% = $229M
-20% = $203M
-30% = $177M
-40% = $152M
-50% = $127M

In theaters: $93M worldwide.

Update:


Another 194M minutes of Raya watched. That's another 1.7M views of the movie.

Assuming people watch it straight through, it has been viewed, in total, 10M times on D+ Premium.

At $30 a pop, that's $300M income unshared with theaters.

Now, as has been discussed above, Disney films do tend to be rewatched... a lot. Moana and Frozen 2, e.g., keep showing up on the top ten movies streamed every week for the past four months. OTOH, Raya is not a musical, which is often the hallmark of a most-watched movie.

So, depending on one's guesstimate of rewatches, if you take off a percentage, then Raya's income on premium streaming in its first 3 weeks is...

- 0% = $300M
-10% = $209M
-20% = $240M
-30% = $210M
-40% = $180M
-50% = $150M

In theaters: $100M worldwide (as a rule of thumb, Disney would get half of that: $50M).
 

MisterPenguin

Fully Pfizered!
Premium Member
Update:


Another 194M minutes of Raya watched. That's another 1.7M views of the movie.

Assuming people watch it straight through, it has been viewed, in total, 10M times on D+ Premium.

At $30 a pop, that's $300M income unshared with theaters.

Now, as has been discussed above, Disney films do tend to be rewatched... a lot. Moana and Frozen 2, e.g., keep showing up on the top ten movies streamed every week for the past four months. OTOH, Raya is not a musical, which is often the hallmark of a most-watched movie.

So, depending on one's guesstimate of rewatches, if you take off a percentage, then Raya's income on premium streaming in its first 3 weeks is...

- 0% = $300M
-10% = $209M
-20% = $240M
-30% = $210M
-40% = $180M
-50% = $150M

In theaters: $100M worldwide (as a rule of thumb, Disney would get half of that: $50M).
Update:


Another 175M minutes of Raya watched. That's another 1.5M views of the movie.

Assuming people watch it straight through, it has been viewed, in total, 11.9M times on D+ Premium.

At $30 a pop, that's $356M income unshared with theaters.

Now, as has been discussed above, Disney films do tend to be rewatched... a lot. Moana and Frozen 2, e.g., keep showing up on the top ten movies streamed every week for the past four months. OTOH, Raya is not a musical, which is often the hallmark of a most-watched movie.

So, depending on one's guesstimate of rewatches, if you take off a percentage, then Raya's income on premium streaming in its first 5 weeks is...

- 0% = $356M
-10% = $320M
-20% = $284M
-30% = $249M
-40% = $214M
-50% = $178M

In theaters: $102M worldwide (as a rule of thumb, Disney would get half of that: $51M).
 

MisterPenguin

Fully Pfizered!
Premium Member
Update:


Another 175M minutes of Raya watched as of Apr 11. That's another 1.5M views of the movie.

Assuming people watch it straight through, it has been viewed, in total, 11.9M times on D+ Premium.

At $30 a pop, that's $356M income unshared with theaters.

Now, as has been discussed above, Disney films do tend to be rewatched... a lot. Moana and Frozen 2, e.g., keep showing up on the top ten movies streamed every week for the past four months. OTOH, Raya is not a musical, which is often the hallmark of a most-watched movie.

So, depending on one's guesstimate of rewatches, if you take off a percentage, then Raya's income on premium streaming in its first 5 weeks is...

- 0% = $356M
-10% = $320M
-20% = $284M
-30% = $249M
-40% = $214M
-50% = $178M

In theaters: $102M worldwide (as a rule of thumb, Disney would get half of that: $51M).


Update:

Another 165M minutes of Raya watched. That's another 1.473M views of the movie.

Assuming people watch it straight through, it has been viewed, in total, 13.2M times on D+ Premium.

At $30 a pop, that's $396M income unshared with theaters.

Now, as has been discussed above, Disney films do tend to be rewatched... a lot. Moana and Frozen 2, e.g., keep showing up on the top ten movies streamed every week for the past four months. OTOH, Raya is not a musical, which is often the hallmark of a most-watched movie.

So, depending on one's guesstimate of rewatches, if you take off a percentage, then Raya's income on premium streaming in its first 5 weeks is...

- 0% = $396M
-10% = $356M
-20% = $317M
-30% = $277M
-40% = $237M
-50% = $198M

In theaters: $104M worldwide (as a rule of thumb, Disney would get half of that: $52M).
 

MisterPenguin

Fully Pfizered!
Premium Member
Update:

Another 165M minutes of Raya watched. That's another 1.473M views of the movie.

Assuming people watch it straight through, it has been viewed, in total, 13.2M times on D+ Premium.

At $30 a pop, that's $396M income unshared with theaters.

Now, as has been discussed above, Disney films do tend to be rewatched... a lot. Moana and Frozen 2, e.g., keep showing up on the top ten movies streamed every week for the past four months. OTOH, Raya is not a musical, which is often the hallmark of a most-watched movie.

So, depending on one's guesstimate of rewatches, if you take off a percentage, then Raya's income on premium streaming in its first 5 weeks is...

- 0% = $396M
-10% = $356M
-20% = $317M
-30% = $277M
-40% = $237M
-50% = $198M

In theaters: $104M worldwide (as a rule of thumb, Disney would get half of that: $52M).
Update:

Another 164M minutes of Raya watched. That's another 1.464M views of the movie.

Assuming people watch it straight through, it has been viewed, in total, 14.7M times on D+ Premium.

At $30 a pop, that's $440M income unshared with theaters.

Now, as has been discussed above, Disney films do tend to be rewatched... a lot. Moana and Frozen 2, e.g., keep showing up on the top ten movies streamed every week for the past four months. OTOH, Raya is not a musical, which is often the hallmark of a most-watched movie.

So, depending on one's guesstimate of rewatches, if you take off a percentage, then Raya's income on premium streaming in its first 5 weeks is...

- 0% = $440M
-10% = $396M
-20% = $352M
-30% = $308M
-40% = $264M
-50% = $220M

In theaters: $107M worldwide (as a rule of thumb, Disney would get half of that: $53.5M).
 

tcool123

Well-Known Member
Update:

Another 164M minutes of Raya watched. That's another 1.464M views of the movie.

Assuming people watch it straight through, it has been viewed, in total, 14.7M times on D+ Premium.

At $30 a pop, that's $440M income unshared with theaters.

Now, as has been discussed above, Disney films do tend to be rewatched... a lot. Moana and Frozen 2, e.g., keep showing up on the top ten movies streamed every week for the past four months. OTOH, Raya is not a musical, which is often the hallmark of a most-watched movie.

So, depending on one's guesstimate of rewatches, if you take off a percentage, then Raya's income on premium streaming in its first 5 weeks is...

- 0% = $440M
-10% = $396M
-20% = $352M
-30% = $308M
-40% = $264M
-50% = $220M

In theaters: $107M worldwide (as a rule of thumb, Disney would get half of that: $53.5M).
Rewatched Raya today but this time in theaters! The theater was completely sold out! Mind you thats with social distancing and the such but still seems like there’s plenty of demand down where I am 🤷🏻‍♂️
 

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