Potential Major Hurricane Idalia Possibly to Impact Central/Northern Florida 8/29

Gringrinngghost

Gringrinngghost

Well-Known Member
larryz said:
Remember -- FEMA uses the "Waffle House Index" to determine the severity of the local conditions... 😬
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Waffle House has an extensive disaster management plan with on-site and portable generators and positioned food and ice ahead of severe weather events. This helps mitigate the effects of a storm on the power grid and the supply chains.

The Waffle House Index:
Green: the restaurant is serving a full menu, indicating the restaurant has power and damage is limited.
Yellow: the restaurant is serving a limited menu, indicating there may be no power or only power from a generator or food supplies may be low.
Red: the restaurant is closed, indicating severe damage.

1693243674571.png

^This is a full "Yellow" menu (limited menu) on the Waffle House index
 
JoeCamel

JoeCamel

Well-Known Member
Gringrinngghost said:
Waffle House has an extensive disaster management plan with on-site and portable generators and positioned food and ice ahead of severe weather events. This helps mitigate the effects of a storm on the power grid and the supply chains.

The Waffle House Index:
Green: the restaurant is serving a full menu, indicating the restaurant has power and damage is limited.
Yellow: the restaurant is serving a limited menu, indicating there may be no power or only power from a generator or food supplies may be low.
Red: the restaurant is closed, indicating severe damage.

View attachment 739570
^This is a full "Yellow" menu (limited menu) on the Waffle House index
Click to expand...
Note that those are 10 year old prices. You can double it now.
 
L

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
celluloid said:
It's not as many as you would think. It pertains more to the hotel guests because they are stuck there or came there from coastal towns.

It is not really any larger of a paycheck. You don't get paid differently in most cases. You are just on the clock working vs on the clock hunkering down.
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Factor in staff working their normal full time schedule then being on the ride out clean up crew staying in the theme park for a few days/nights on the clock looking like boatloads of OT and a larger than normal paycheck.
 
JoeCamel

JoeCamel

Well-Known Member
Lilofan said:
Factor in staff working their normal full time schedule then being on the ride out clean up crew staying in the theme park for a few days/nights on the clock looking like boatloads of OT and a larger than normal paycheck.
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The managers will do their best to rotate out so they don't exceed 40 in a week
 
HauntedPirate

HauntedPirate

Park nostalgist
Premium Member
Brian said:
There's very recent precedent for significant track shifts. Ian was supposed to hit the big bend of Florida and within 24 hours, hit near Fort Myers. Anyone from the Gulf Coast to the Atlantic Coast should be paying attention to this storm and make preparations.
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IMG_1719.png


That was the track for Ian on September 23. Pretty damn close to where it made landfall eventually.
 
Gringrinngghost

Gringrinngghost

Well-Known Member
Jacksonville Mayor Donna Deegan on Monday urged residents to prepare for Idalia as closures were announced for city offices and area schools.

Duval County Public Schools will close Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday, said the mayor at the Duval County Emergency Operations Center.

Six shelters will open beginning noon on Tuesday, she added.

All Jacksonville city buildings will be closed for non-essential personnel and all city employees.
 
Gringrinngghost

Gringrinngghost

Well-Known Member
wdwmagic said:
Very close to WDW - Lake County schools closed Wednesday
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Polk County right south of Osceola are open tomorrow with after school activities cancelled.

Dear parents/guardians,

Polk County Public Schools is monitoring the path of Tropical Storm Idalia, which could impact Central Florida starting late Tuesday evening. Our team continues to monitor the weather and we are working with the Polk County Emergency Operations Center to provide you with updated information regarding the potential impact to our area.

The current forecast shows that the storm is likely to strengthen and could become a Category 3 hurricane prior to making landfall later this week. The current forecast shows that it could make landfall between Tampa Bay and Jefferson County.

At this time there are no changes planned to the PCPS school day schedule for Tuesday, Aug. 29. Please know we will continue to provide updates as new information becomes available, since the storm could impact our school operations on Wednesday and Thursday.

While we expect to operate on a regular schedule tomorrow, all after-school activities for Tuesday, Aug. 29, are canceled and will be rescheduled as needed. We also are postponing the College and Career Fair scheduled for Tuesday evening at Florida Southern College.

The decision to close schools includes a review of the following:

• Sheltering needs – Many of our school sites serve as hurricane shelters. These shelters provide support for our own residents and those who may travel inward from coastal communities. It is also important to note that we also operate shelters for pets and residents with special needs (those requiring medical support). So schools may be closed ahead of the storm to allow the county time to deliver equipment, staff each site, and transport those requiring medical support.
• Transportation – School buses are only allowed to operate when the sustained winds are below 35 mph. We will cancel school in the event that sustained winds exceed this threshold.
• Staff – Our staff may be adversely impacted by storm damage. As a result, we must work to ensure that we have enough staff available to reopen schools following a storm event.

PCPS will work quickly following a storm to return to normal operations. Reopening is a complicated process and our teams work swiftly to ensure that our campuses are safe for students and staff to return. There are several issues that could prevent our ability to reopen immediately following a storm event. These include:

• Time needed to return shelter residents and pets to their homes.
• Cleaning and sanitizing all shelters prior to students and staff returning.
• Evaluating schools for any flood damage or water intrusion due to roof/window damage.
• Ensuring schools have electricity and there are no downed power lines.
• Ensuring that schools have water or that we deliver bottled water if needed.
• Inspecting playgrounds and athletic facilities for any damage.
• Ensuring that we document any damage to our schools for insurance purposes.

Please continue to follow our website and social media accounts for updates. In the event we have to close schools or alter our operations further, we will send automated calls and emails to all PCPS families. Please make sure your school has your correct contact information on file for “SchoolMessenger” communications.

Again, any official announcements regarding our schools will be communicated via PCPS SchoolMessenger calls and emails, as well as our website and social media accounts. Unless you hear otherwise from us, all PCPS schools will be open as normal on Tuesday.

Please stay safe and make sure your family is adequately prepared.
 
IanDLBZF

IanDLBZF

Well-Known Member
Update from Osceola County Schools:
August 28, 2023 12:00 p.m.

Superintendent Dr. Mark Shanoff is continuing to closely monitor the progress of Tropical Storm Idalia in conjunction with Osceola County Emergency Management. Based on the projected forecasted path as of today, school will be in session for a full day tomorrow, Tuesday, August 29th, as normal. Out of an abundance of caution, all after-school activities and sporting events scheduled for tomorrow afternoon and evening, including Extended Day after-school care and the After the Bell middle school program, are cancelled.

A decision on the status of school on Wednesday will be made later this evening. Parents and community residents will be notified through a Remind text and an emergency-notification phone call. Parents and community members are also encouraged to check the school district's website, social media posts, and local media coverage as well for any updates.

---
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L

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
Gringrinngghost said:
Waffle House has an extensive disaster management plan with on-site and portable generators and positioned food and ice ahead of severe weather events. This helps mitigate the effects of a storm on the power grid and the supply chains.

The Waffle House Index:
Green: the restaurant is serving a full menu, indicating the restaurant has power and damage is limited.
Yellow: the restaurant is serving a limited menu, indicating there may be no power or only power from a generator or food supplies may be low.
Red: the restaurant is closed, indicating severe damage.

View attachment 739570
^This is a full "Yellow" menu (limited menu) on the Waffle House index
Click to expand...
What the Green Yellow Red codes mean is the Waffle House is operational during a tropical storm and or hurricane.
 
IanDLBZF

IanDLBZF

Well-Known Member
2:00pm EDT NHC Advisory
...IDALIA STRENGTHENING AS IT NEARS THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS WINDS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.2N 85.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to the Ochlockonee River, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Middle of Longboat Key northward to the Ochlockonee River,
including Tampa Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Isle of Youth Cuba
* Dry Tortugas Florida
* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of the Ochlockonee River westward to Indian Pass

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour
* Ochlockonee River to Indian Pass Florida
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound Georgia

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of the Ochlockonee River westward to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South of the Middle of Longboat Key to Chokoloskee Florida
* West of the Ochlockonee River westward to Indian Pass

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge
* Sebastian Inlet Florida northward to Altamaha Sound Georgia

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings will
likely be required later today.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 85.1 West. Idalia is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northward motion is
expected through tonight, followed by a faster north-northeast
motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Idalia is forecast to pass near or over western Cuba tonight,
over the extreme southeastern Gulf of Mexico by early Tuesday, and
reach the Gulf coast of Florida on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane later
today and a dangerous major hurricane over the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico by early Wednesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220
km) from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 987 mb (29.15 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...4-7 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft
Tampa Bay...4-7 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...2-4 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Altamaha Sound, GA...2-4 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of the St. Mary's
River...1-3 ft
Florida Keys...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in western Cuba later today. Tropical storm force
winds are already reaching portions of the southern coast of Cuba.

Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
tropical storm warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula and the Isle
of Youth in Cuba through tonight.

Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
in Florida by late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning on Tuesday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas
beginning tonight and within the tropical storm warning area
along the Florida Gulf coast on Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Portions of the eastern Yucatan: Additional 1 to 2 inches.

Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle,
southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from
Tuesday into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches possible,
primarily near landfall in northern Florida.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba.

Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting portions of the
southern coast of Cuba and eastern Yucatan. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADO: A few tornadoes will be possible starting Tuesday along the
west central Florida coast and the tornado threat will spread
northward into the Florida Big Bend area by Tuesday night.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.
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