Potential Major Hurricane Idalia Possibly to Impact Central/Northern Florida 8/29

celluloid

Well-Known Member
There's very recent precedent for significant track shifts. Ian was supposed to hit the big bend of Florida and within 24 hours, hit near Fort Meyers. Anyone from the Gulf Coast to the Atlantic Coast should be paying attention to this storm and make preparations.
Myers* sorry, pet peeve as a local there.

Yeah, no bets are off. I don't see this thing suddenly increasing in size, but it could slow down and snowball anywhere.
 

Gringrinngghost

Well-Known Member
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celluloid

Well-Known Member
A portable generator is too weak to charge an EV. It is a shame by 2035 all cars will be electric vehicles being sold.

Not true and read the first part of the post. Most who can afford a fully EV likely understand the difference and have the means.
 

ewensell3

Well-Known Member
The ones who drive EVs will be challenged since when the power goes out no place to charge your Tesla.

Their cars should already be charged up. They get in them and evacuate. Most have a range of 250+ miles which should be sufficient to get them out of harm's way.

Do ICE owners keep their cars at home with empty gas tanks and only fill them up when they have to evacuate? What will they do when there isn't power to run the gas pumps? AFAIK, only a specific set of gas stations in FL are required to have backup power.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member

Not true and read the first part of the post. Most who can afford a fully EV likely understand the difference and have the means.
That's an assumption on your part. One needs a extra large heavy duty portable and or a whole house generator. The EV uses so much power when one needs to charge in case of a power outage.
 

Gringrinngghost

Well-Known Member
I really wish they would avoid the intensity projections for more than a couple of days out. Maybe replace it with a "we expect it to be at least Cat 1 in intensity" or something like that. Historically, "they" are pretty bad at predicting intensity several days out. The way they do it leads to people thinking they don't have to prepare because it will only be a cat 1 or whatever and then suddenly start panicking when the forecast changes and they are running out of time.
So a little thing about science for you. The more data we have, the better the forecasts are. Until there is a recon team, storm data is estimated by satellites. Now I want to address a few things for you.

Historically, We are not bad at predicting intensity several days out. The more date we can feed the models, the better understanding of the system we get. Not only do we have thousands of mesaturements from the recon aircraft, there are also times were the weather balloons are launched every 6 hours compared to 12. So more data the merrier.

The way they do it leads to people thinking they don't have to prepare because it will only be a cat 1 or whatever and then suddenly start panicking when the forecast changes and they are running out of time.
Human Nazture People do prepare, its just they aren't too pigheaded to leave or are unwilling to leave. Please refer back to Hurricane Katrina, outside of those staying at the Superdome, there was a lot of water rescues.

 

celluloid

Well-Known Member
That's an assumption on your part. One needs a extra large heavy duty portable and or a whole house generator. The EV uses so much power when one needs to charge in case of a power outage.

If you choose not to believe it is possible, just stick to the first part where they likely have the other means. An assumption is that someone who owns an EV has no other way to travel.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
Their cars should already be charged up. They get in them and evacuate. Most have a range of 250+ miles which should be sufficient to get them out of harm's way.

Do ICE owners keep their cars at home with empty gas tanks and only fill them up when they have to evacuate? What will they do when there isn't power to run the gas pumps? AFAIK, only a specific set of gas stations in FL are required to have backup power.
The hurricanes of 2004 no gas stations working for several days that I can think of. The regular panic before the storm is when many go to get gas then pumps run dry for the rest.
 

celluloid

Well-Known Member
The hurricanes of 2004 no gas stations working for several days that I can think of. The regular panic before the storm is when many go to get gas then pumps run dry for the rest.
Hurricanes of 2004 knocked out plenty of stations.

Whether the gas is dry before new deliveries, or whether it is not available because of no pump power is the same result.

There is panic, but that is not what you typically seeing. If you have to drive for weeks after storm ends or go to work for days to weeks after the storm, it makes sense to fill up today.
 

ChrisFL

Premium Member
I believe if I'm not mistaken that the castle can withstand a major hurricane.

Yes, they did have an option to remove the turrets during a major hurricane, but later they found that the rain could rust the missile in the silo underneath.






All kidding aside I hope everyone in the path of the storm or surrounding areas takes heed of the threat and takes precautions
 

JoeCamel

Well-Known Member
The hurricanes of 2004 no gas stations working for several days that I can think of. The regular panic before the storm is when many go to get gas then pumps run dry for the rest.

Hurricanes of 2004 knocked out plenty of stations.

Whether the gas is dry before new deliveries, or whether it is not available because of no pump power is the same result.

There is panic, but that is not what you typically seeing. If you have to drive for weeks after storm ends or go to work for days to weeks after the storm, it makes sense to fill up today.
2004 is why they legislated that stations along major routes would be required to have generators or alternative supply to keep pumps running. The followup inspection program is weak so not all will be available but much better than 2004
 

LAKid53

Official Member of the Girly Girl Fan Club
Premium Member
Apparently, you misread my post. Advising people infrastructure (airports, roads, trains, etc) will be impacted across the northern portion of the state by a potential Cat 3 hurricane is common sense. It shouldn't even have to be said ~ but here we are...

Long time Panhandle resident. We've not had a Cat 3 storm impact the Big Bend in the 52 years I've lived here.

I will finalize my preparations today. Top off the gas tank, get more water & non perishables, etc. And am prepared to evacuate tomorrow AM if the forecasts shift the storm westward towards Apalachicola.

No living through another Hermine or Michael.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
So a little thing about science for you. The more data we have, the better the forecasts are. Until there is a recon team, storm data is estimated by satellites. Now I want to address a few things for you.

Historically, We are not bad at predicting intensity several days out. The more date we can feed the models, the better understanding of the system we get. Not only do we have thousands of mesaturements from the recon aircraft, there are also times were the weather balloons are launched every 6 hours compared to 12. So more data the merrier.
When the storms are further out and they are using the satellites they are not very good at predicting intensity. They are a little better with the track. Usually the center ends up somewhere in the area that the cone predicts when the day arrives, although it is very rarely near the center of the cone so it makes it looks like the track forecasts are terrible when, in reality, the storm usually ends up somewhere in the widest predicted zone.

When the storm is a day or two from landfall then the intensity predictions are usually close. When the storms are 5-10 days from landfall, the intensity predictions are not very accurate and it leads to people ignoring the storm and not preparing because the intensity forecast a week in advance is for a weak storm and then it turns out that it intensifies.
 

Gringrinngghost

Well-Known Member
Mandatory evacuations are in place for portions of Manatee and Pasco counties in the Tampa area.

In Hernando County, north of Tampa:

  • Mandatory evacuations for portions of the county go into effect Tuesday morning.
  • Voluntary evacuations are currently in place
  • Shelters are scheduled to open at noon today.
"If we get the 8 foot of storm, 9 foot of storm surge that is forecast, it is not going to bode well for the west coast of Hernando County," Hernando County Emergency Management Director David DeCarlo said.

In Manatee County, south of Tampa:

  • Manatee County government will close at noon Monday, Acting Manatee County Administrator Charlie Bishop announced.
  • Transit will remain in operation until winds are above 45 miles per hour, he added.
  • Significant storm surge is expected along the barrier islands and coastal communities, with the earliest arrival predicted for Tuesday, said Manatee County Public Safety Director Jodie Fiske.
In Pinellas County, west of Tampa, local officials declared a state of emergency. They are currently preparing to open two school shelters in case of evacuations, but school closures have not yet been announced for the county, which includes the St Petersburg area.

In Pasco County, just north of Tampa, Residents closest to the ocean and those that live in manufactured homes, and low-lying areas will be under a mandatory evacuation order as Tropical Storm Idalia heads towards the area, the county announced.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
Long time Panhandle resident. We've not had a Cat 3 storm impact the Big Bend in the 52 years I've lived here.

I will finalize my preparations today. Top off the gas tank, get more water & non perishables, etc. And am prepared to evacuate tomorrow AM if the forecasts shift the storm westward towards Apalachicola.

No living through another Hermine or Michael.
No one thought a Cat 3 would go up I-4 and head straight for Kissimmee and Orlando and impact both cities in 2004. That was something else. What was helpful is when weather forecasters predicted and were right on track the exact time frame the storm will wreck the areas during the 3 hurricanes that affected Central FL in a matter of months in that dreadful summer of 2004. Panhandle with a Cat 1 is devastating enough.
 

lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
For people visiting in the next few days, keep in mind all infrastructure could be/will be impacted. If evacuations are ordered, contra flow could be in effect, which will close major roads into some metro areas. Airports will definitely be affected/closed, as well as gas stations and grocery stores.
FDOT stopped doing contraflow a few years ago. They now just open the should for use as travel lanes.
 

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