Potential Major Hurricane Idalia Possibly to Impact Central/Northern Florida 8/29

[DCBaker]

 

[Eric Graham]

I just heard on TV that it's will be a category 4 when it makes landfall. So horrible!

 

[Brian]

11pm NHC advisory

363
WTNT35 KNHC 300256
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Idalia Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1100 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...IDALIA STILL STRENGTHENING...
...FORECAST TO BE AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 INTENSITY AT
LANDFALL...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 84.5W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM W OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning for the Dry Tortugas is discontinued,
and the Tropical Storm Watch for the Lower Florida Keys is
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa
Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Surf City North Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South
Carolina
* Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet North Carolina
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers North Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Surf City North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia
border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional warnings will likely be required tonight or on Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Idalia was
located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 84.5 West. Idalia is
moving toward the north near 18 mph (30 km/h). A northward to
north-northeastward motion is expected through tonight, with
Idalia's center forecast to reach the Big Bend coast of Florida on
Wednesday morning. After landfall, the center of Idalia is forecast
to turn toward the northeast and east-northeast, moving near or
along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina late
Wednesday and Thursday.

Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate that maximum sustained
winds are near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional
strengthening is forecast, and Idalia is expected to become a
major hurricane during the next few hours before it reaches the Big
Bend coast of Florida. Idalia is likely to still be a hurricane
while moving across southern Georgia, and possibly when it reaches
the coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina on Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles
(260 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter
aircraft observations is 958 mb (28.29 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Wakulla/Jefferson County line, FL to Yankeetown, FL...12-16 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Wakulla/Jefferson County line, FL...8-12 ft
Yankeetown to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Carrabelle, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...5-8 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-6 ft
Tampa Bay...4-6 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Carrabelle, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee, SC...2-4 ft
Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet, NC...2-4 ft
Pamlico and Neuse Rivers...2-4 ft
South of Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee, FL...1-3 ft
South Santee, SC to Beaufort Inlet, NC...1-3 ft
Drum Inlet to Duck, NC...1-3 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of St. Mary's River...1-3
ft
Indian Pass to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft
Florida Keys...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in Florida early Wednesday morning, with tropical
storm conditions beginning within the next few hours.

Tropical storm conditions will begin within the tropical storm
warning area along the Florida Gulf coast and the Florida west coast
soon.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Wednesday in the
warning area along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina, and spread into North Carolina Wednesday night and
Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in North Carolina by Thursday.

RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce a swath of 4 to 8 inches of
rainfall with isolated maxima up to 12 inches from the Florida Big
Bend through central Georgia and South Carolina, and through eastern
North Carolina into Thursday. These rainfall amounts will lead to
areas of flash, urban, and moderate river flooding, with locally
considerable impacts.

SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting the southwestern
coast of Florida and will spread northward and westward to the
north-central Gulf coast through Wednesday. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible tonight from the coast of
west-central Florida northward into the Florida Big Bend region.
The tornado risk will shift into southeast Georgia and the coastal
Carolinas on Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

 

[Bullseye1967]

Cat 3 now. It is slowing down. They are now calling for a strong Cat 4 at landfall in about 4 hours. Hard to believe it will go through Georgia as a Cat 2 and South Carolina as a Cat 1. This has never happened.

 

[LAKid53]

Cat 3 now. It is slowing down. They are now calling for a strong Cat 4 at landfall in about 4 hours. Hard to believe it will go through Georgia as a Cat 2 and South Carolina as a Cat 1. This has never happened.

Michael hit Georgia as a Cat 3 in 2018.

 

[DisneyCane]

This storm should have essentially zero impact on WDW outside of a few thunderstorms that aren't any different than the strong thunderstorms that are experienced on a relatively regular basis in the summer at WDW.

 

[DCBaker]

Tornado watch issued for Orange and Osceola counties.

 

[Gringrinngghost]

119 
WTNT65 KNHC 301059
TCUAT5

Hurricane Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023
700 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS OCCURRING IN THE 
FLORIDA BIG BEND REGION...
...7 AM POSITION UPDATE...

Radar and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data 
indicate that an eyewall replacement cycle has begun.  Idalia's 
maximum sustained winds are now estimated near 125 mph (205 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  This change in wind speed does not diminish the 
threat of catastrophic storm surge and damaging winds. 

The estimated minimum pressure indicated by Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 947 mb (27.96 inches).

Within the past hour, a C-MAN station on Cedar Key measured 
sustained winds of 47 mph (76 km/h), with a gust to 55 mph (88 
km/h), and a Weatherflow station at Apalachee Bay measured a 
sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h), with a gust to 55 mph (88 
km/h).  A Florida Coastal Monitoring Program tower near Lake City, 
Florida, recently reported a wind gust to 51 mph (82 km/h). 

A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge at Cedar Key, Florida, 
recently reported a water level of 5.2 feet above mean higher high 
water, which is an approximation of inundation in that area. 

SUMMARY OF 700 AM EDT...1100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 83.8W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SSE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...947 MB...27.96 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Stevenson

 

[lentesta]

Here in Celebration we're getting rain and very light winds. And it looks like the storm is going to knock the high temps down a few degrees for the next few days.

I hope everyone up north makes it through this safely.

 

[Gringrinngghost]

Landfall will be within the next 20 minutes

 

[Gringrinngghost]

000
WTNT65 KNHC 301145
TCUAT5

Hurricane Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023
745 AM EDT Wed Aug 30 2023

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 3 HURRICANE IDALIA MAKES LANDFALL
IN THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...
...745 AM POSITION UPDATE...

NOAA Doppler radar imagery indicate that the eye of Idalia made
landfall along the coast of the Florida Big Bend near Keaton Beach
around 745 AM EDT (1145 UTC).   Data from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Idalia's maximum sustained
winds were near 125 mph (205 km/h).  The latest minimum pressure
central pressure estimated from reconnaissance data is 949 mb (28.02
inches).

Within the past hour, a C-MAN station at Keaton Beach, Florida,
measured sustained winds of 61 mph (98 km/h), with a gust to 77 mph
(124 km/h).  A Florida Coastal Monitoring Program tower located
southwest of Hampton Springs, Florida, recently reported a wind gust
of 68 mph (109 km/h).

Water levels along the coast of the Florida Big Bend are rising
rapidly.  A NOAA National Ocean Service tide gauge at Cedar Key,
Florida, recently reported a water level of 5.9 feet above mean
higher high water, which is an approximation of inundation in that
area.

SUMMARY OF 745 AM EDT...1145 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 83.6W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM S OF PERRY FLORIDA
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...949 MB...28.02 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown/Stevenson

 

[Gringrinngghost]

 

[Gringrinngghost]

 

[JohnD]

@JohnD,

Stay safe. NWS just said this will be the strongest storm to hit Tally.

Will do. I'm hunkered down. As I type this, I still have power. I'm freezing my butt off in a 68 degree house. (I'm not stupid. If power goes out, I want to be comfortable for as long as possible.)

 

[Brooklin Disney Dad]

Send videos from the resorts and parks (if you can and if they remain open). Would like to see how bad it actually gets. CNN only reporting on coastal areas. Not sure why Disney would put employees and families at risk by keeping parks open. Yea families can stay at resorts but employees can’t. And what value are you actually going to get at the parks today?

 

[jpeden]

Send videos from the resorts and parks (if you can and if they remain open). Would like to see how bad it actually gets. CNN only reporting on coastal areas. Not sure why Disney would put employees and families at risk by keeping parks open. Yea families can stay at resorts but employees can’t. And what value are you actually going to get at the parks today?

Mainly because what is hitting central Orlando equates to a severe thunderstorm. MCO is also operational.

 

[JohnD]

Send videos from the resorts and parks (if you can and if they remain open). Would like to see how bad it actually gets. CNN only reporting on coastal areas. Not sure why Disney would put employees and families at risk by keeping parks open. Yea families can stay at resorts but employees can’t. And what value are you actually going to get at the parks today?

It won't be nearly as bad as Ian. I'm riding out Idalia in Tally. I rode out Ian too a little more comfortably in AK Lodge last year.

 

[wdwmagic]

Send videos from the resorts and parks (if you can and if they remain open). Would like to see how bad it actually gets. CNN only reporting on coastal areas. Not sure why Disney would put employees and families at risk by keeping parks open. Yea families can stay at resorts but employees can’t. And what value are you actually going to get at the parks today?

WDW will see conditions similar to a typical afternoon storm. There isn't any significant risk to families or CMs.

 

[Drdcm]

We got stuck at Disney for Irma after our flight was cancelled a few days before the storm (unrelated to the hurricane). They closed the parks for two days I believe. Interestingly, they gave us a super discounted rate at Pop because we couldn’t get out, it was like $50 for additional nights, and they brought food to our rooms (also discounted). I was pretty impressed with how they handled it.

The day before Irma was a ghost town. We went to three different parks and every ride was a walk on.

Edit: the hotels were like bunkers. We actually slept through the storm itself without waking up.

 

[Disstevefan1]

Send videos from the resorts and parks (if you can and if they remain open). Would like to see how bad it actually gets. CNN only reporting on coastal areas. Not sure why Disney would put employees and families at risk by keeping parks open. Yea families can stay at resorts but employees can’t. And what value are you actually going to get at the parks today?

Don't worry, if there is any risk what so ever, WDW will close.

Its not like the old days where you could count on one hand the days in a year WDW would close, if at all.

After the pandemic, they have become very comfortable to close for any reason needed.

As for this storm, I am only guessing but it appears WDW will only get rain from the outer bands of the storm. I am guessing there will be no closure.