Potential Major Hurricane Idalia Possibly to Impact Central/Northern Florida 8/29

monothingie

monothingie

Evil will always triumph, because good is dumb.
Premium Member
Original Poster
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Gringrinngghost

Gringrinngghost

Well-Known Member
Code: 
000
WTNT35 KNHC 292354
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
Hurricane Idalia Intermediate Advisory Number 13A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023
800 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...IDALIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...
...LIKELY TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 84.7W
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 245 MI...390 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa
Bay

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Dry Tortugas Florida
* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Surf City North Carolina

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Bonita Beach northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South
Carolina
* Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet North Carolina
* Neuse and Pamlico Rivers North Carolina

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to Edisto Beach South Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge
* North of Surf City North Carolina to the North Carolina/Virginia
border
* Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Additional warnings will likely be required tonight or on Wednesday.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. 


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM EDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Idalia was located
near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 84.7 West.  Idalia is moving
toward the north near 16 mph (26 km/h).  A northward to
north-northeastward motion is expected through tonight, with
Idalia's center forecast to reach the Big Bend coast of Florida on
Wednesday morning.  After landfall, the center of Idalia is forecast
to turn toward the northeast and east-northeast, moving near or 
along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina late 
Wednesday and Thursday.

Observations from Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the 
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Additional strengthening is forecast, and Idalia 
is expected to become a major hurricane tonight before it reaches 
the Big Bend coast of Florida.  Idalia is likely to still be a 
hurricane while moving across southern Georgia, and possibly when it 
reaches the coast of Georgia or southern South Carolina on 
Wednesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160
miles (260 km).

The minimum central pressure based on Hurricane Hunter aircraft 
observations is 965 mb (28.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml

STORM SURGE:  The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Aucilla River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...10-15 ft
Yankeetown to Chassahowitzka, FL...7-11 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...7-11 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-6 ft
Tampa Bay...4-6 ft
Carrabelle, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...4-7 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Carrabelle, FL...3-5 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee, SC...2-4 ft
Beaufort Inlet to Drum Inlet, NC...2-4 ft
Pamlico and Neuse Rivers...2-4 ft
South of Bonita Beach to Chokoloskee, FL...1-3 ft
South Santee, SC to Beaufort Inlet, NC...1-3 ft
Drum Inlet to Duck, NC...1-3 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of St. Mary's River...1-3
ft
Indian Pass to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft.
Florida Keys...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area in Florida by tonight or early Wednesday, with tropical
storm conditions beginning soon.

Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the Dry Tortugas and are
possible within the Lower Florida Keys.  Tropical storm conditions
will begin within the tropical storm warning area along the Florida
Gulf coast and the Florida west coast soon.

Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch area
along the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina Wednesday and
Wednesday night.

Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin on Wednesday in the
warning area along the east coast of Florida, Georgia, and South
Carolina, and spread into North Carolina Wednesday night and
Thursday.  Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch
area in North Carolina by Thursday.

RAINFALL:  Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:

Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.

Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle,
southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from
Tuesday into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches
are possible, primarily near landfall in northern Florida.

This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba.

Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.

SURF:  Swells generated by Idalia are affecting the southwestern
coast of Florida and will spread northward and westward to the
north-central Gulf coast through Wednesday.  These swells are 
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  
Please consult products from your local weather office.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible along the west central
Florida coast through tonight.  The tornado threat will also spread
northward into the Florida Big Bend tonight, and toward southeast
Georgia and the coastal Carolinas Wednesday.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

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Gringrinngghost

Gringrinngghost

Well-Known Member
I’m gonna get some sleep, but wanted to share that the system is Almost a Category 3.

Code: 
000
WTNT65 KNHC 300157
TCUAT5

Hurricane Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL102023
1000 PM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

...IDALIA FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE TONIGHT...
...CATASTROPHIC STORM SURGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WINDS LIKELY TOMORROW 
MORNING WHERE THE CORE OF IDALIA MOVES INLAND...

NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicate
that Idalia has strengthened further. Maximum sustained winds have 
increased to 110 mph (175 km/h). The minimum pressure based on 
dropsonde data from the aircraft has fallen to 960 mb (28.35 
inches).

The National Hurricane Center has begun hourly position and 
intensity updates on Idalia. The hourly updates will continue as 
long as Idalia's eye is easily trackable in ground-based radar data.

SUMMARY OF 1000 PM EDT...0200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.4N 84.6W
ABOUT 135 MI...215 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM S OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...29 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky/Pasch
 
JustInTime

JustInTime

Well-Known Member
I hope they don’t cram party goers from tonight into Friday’s party. I hope they do the right thing and refund people. I’m sure they won’t though!
 

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