TM preview is Weds. Night.
Executive Preview tonight though.
TM preview is Weds. Night.
What house has corn this year?But it does keep the corn tradition.
Executive review of houses was planned for tonight. Tribute store was supposed to open Weds.
Tried calling United on the 800 number during a previous storm. Wait time on hold was 3 hours.There a thread for that. Disney said if the area your traveling from is under a hurricane warning it will allow cancellations without penalities. Right now, neither Orange or Osceola counties are part of the 46 county emergency declaration.
What house has corn this year?
And they have....AA has announced they have been waived for flights in and out of several airports. I expect the rest to follow suit soon, if they haven't already.
As for state employees. . .Leon County Schools closing at 6 PM. FSU at 5 PM. Given that TS winds will start of affect the area around 8 PM, that doesn't give much time for prep. I think you'll see announcements either later tonight or early tomorrow moving up the closing. Especially if the models show a more westward track.
Well, yes - the wine rack is full, as well as the liquor cabinet. But I was thinking about actual food, water ( I have a case of bottled water at all times, plus two 5 gallon camping water containers, along with multiple 1/2 gallon containers) snacks, etc."Supplies".
I know. Just having a bit of fun. Last year during Ian was not something I would like to repeat anytime soon, even at WDW.Well, yes - the wine rack is full, as well as the liquor cabinet. But I was thinking about actual food, water ( I have a case of bottled water at all times, plus two 5 gallon camping water containers, along with multiple 1/2 gallon containers) snacks, etc.
Water can be stored for short term use in a thoroughly cleaned, empty milk jug, 2L soda bottle, etc. It doesn't have to be purchased, and be used for cooking even longer as long as it can be boiled. A sterno stove takes a long time to heat things, but can be used indoors if placed on a heat-proof surface.
000
WTNT35 KNHC 282052
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023
...IDALIA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN
CUBA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS WINDS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 85.1W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Storm Surge Warning has been extended westward to Indian Pass
Florida. The Hurricane Warning has also been extended westward to
Indian Pass. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from west of
Indian Pass westward to Mexico Beach.
The Storm Surge Watch along the southeast coast of the United
States has been extended northward to South Santee River.
The Tropical Storm Watch along the southeast coast of the United
States has been extended northward to South Santee River.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Englewood northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Cuban province of Pinar del Rio
* Middle of Longboat Key northward to Indian Pass, including Tampa
Bay
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Yucatan Peninsula from Tulum to Rio Lagartos, including Cozumel
* Isle of Youth Cuba
* Dry Tortugas Florida
* Chokoloskee northward to the Middle of Longboat Key
* West of Indian Pass to Mexico Beach
A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee northward to Englewood, including Charlotte Harbour
* Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee River South
Carolina
A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Englewood to the Middle of Longboat Key
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Lower Florida Keys west of the west end of the Seven Mile Bridge
* Sebastian Inlet Florida northward to South Santee River South
Carolina
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.
A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.
A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
Interests along the southeastern U.S. coast should monitor the
progress of this system. Additional watches and warnings along the
southeast United States coast will likely be required later tonight
or on Tuesday.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Idalia was
located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 85.1 West. Idalia is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northward motion is
expected through tonight, followed by a faster north-northeast
motion on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Idalia is forecast to pass near or over western Cuba tonight,
over the eastern Gulf of Mexico on Tuesday, and reach the Gulf
coast of Florida within the Hurricane Warning area on Wednesday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher
gusts. Rapid strengthening is predicted during the next day or so.
Idalia is forecast to become a hurricane this evening or tonight,
and become a major hurricane by late Tuesday or Tuesday night.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 150 miles (240 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Idalia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT5 and WMO header WTNT45 KNHC,
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT5.shtml
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Aucilla River, FL to Chassahowitzka, FL...8-12 ft
Chassahowitzka, FL to Anclote River, FL...6-9 ft
Ochlockonee River, FL to Aucilla River, FL...5-8 ft
Anclote River, FL to Middle of Longboat Key, FL...4-7 ft
Tampa Bay...4-7 ft
Middle of Longboat Key, FL to Englewood, FL...3-5 ft
Englewood, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...2-4 ft
Charlotte Harbor...2-4 ft
Indian Pass, FL to Ochlockonee River, FL...3-5 ft
Mouth of the St. Mary's River to South Santee, SC...2-4 ft
Chokoloskee, FL to East Cape Sable, FL...1-3 ft
Flagler/Volusia County Line, FL to Mouth of St. Mary's River...1-3
ft
Indian Pass to Mexico Beach...1 to 3 ft.
Florida Keys...1-2 ft
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.
Storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above
normal tide levels along the southern coast of Pinar del Rio, Cuba.
Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large waves.
WIND: Hurricane and tropical storm conditions are expected within
the warning areas in western Cuba through Tuesday morning.
Tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of the
tropical storm warning area over the Yucatan Peninsula.
Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane warning area
in Florida by late Tuesday or Wednesday, with tropical storm
conditions beginning on Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Dry Tortugas
beginning tonight and within the tropical storm warning area
along the Florida Gulf coast on Tuesday.
Tropical storm conditions are possible along the southeast U.S.
coast within the southern portions of the watch area by early
Wednesday.
RAINFALL: Idalia is expected to produce the following rainfall
amounts:
Portions of the eastern Yucatan: Additional 1 to 2 inches.
Western Cuba: 4 to 7 inches, with isolated higher totals of 10
inches.
Portions of the west coast of Florida, the Florida Panhandle,
southeast Georgia and the eastern Carolinas: 4 to 8 inches from
Tuesday into Thursday. Isolated higher totals of 12 inches possible,
primarily near landfall in northern Florida.
This rainfall may lead to flash and urban flooding, and landslides
across western Cuba.
Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.
SURF: Swells generated by Idalia are affecting portions of the
southern coast of Cuba and eastern Yucatan. These swells will
spread northward along the eastern Gulf Coast during the next day
or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.
TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible starting Tuesday along
the west central Florida coast and the tornado threat will spread
northward into the Florida Big Bend area by Tuesday night.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Brown
As for state employees. . .
Osecola:This just in.....
TROPICAL STORM WARNING now in effect for Orange, Osceola, and Seminole.
Tropical Storm Warning
Idalia Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 9
National Weather Service Melbourne FL AL102023
511 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023
FLZ053-290515-
/O.EXA.KMLB.TR.W.1010.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.UPG.KMLB.TR.A.1010.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Osceola-
511 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Tropical storm force winds remain
possible
- Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 39
to 57 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect property should be
completed as soon as possible. Prepare for limited wind
damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 1-3 inches, with locally
higher amounts
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
localized flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
localized flooding from heavy rain.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter
currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, and ditches may
become swollen and overflow in spots.
- Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in
usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding
of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor
drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds
become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and
bridge closures.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for a few
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for a
few tornadoes.
- PREPARE: If your shelter is particularly vulnerable to
tornadoes, prepare to relocate to safe shelter before
hazardous weather arrives.
- ACT: If a tornado warning is issued, be ready to shelter
quickly.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
$$
Tropical Storm Warning
Idalia Local Watch/Warning Statement/Advisory Number 9
National Weather Service Melbourne FL AL102023
511 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023
FLZ045-290515-
/O.EXA.KMLB.TR.W.1010.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/O.UPG.KMLB.TR.A.1010.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Orange-
511 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IN EFFECT...
A Tropical Storm Warning means tropical storm-force winds are
expected somewhere within this area within the next 36 hours
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Tropical storm force winds remain
possible
- Peak Wind Forecast: 20-30 mph with gusts to 45 mph
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for wind 58
to 73 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for dangerous wind of equivalent strong tropical
storm force.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect life and property
should be completed as soon as possible. Prepare for
significant wind damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Some damage to roofing and siding materials, along with
damage to porches, awnings, carports, and sheds. A few
buildings experiencing window, door, and garage door
failures. Mobile homes damaged, especially if unanchored.
Unsecured lightweight objects become dangerous projectiles.
- Several large trees snapped or uprooted, but with greater
numbers in places where trees are shallow rooted. Several
fences and roadway signs blown over.
- Some roads impassable from large debris, and more within
urban or heavily wooded places. A few bridges, causeways,
and access routes impassable.
- Scattered power and communications outages, but more
prevalent in areas with above ground lines.
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 1-3 inches, with locally
higher amounts
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for
moderate flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
moderate flooding from heavy rain. Evacuations and rescues
are possible.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings. Failure to take
action may result in serious injury or loss of life.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- Moderate rainfall flooding may prompt several evacuations
and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly become swollen with
swifter currents and overspill their banks in a few places,
especially in usually vulnerable spots. Small streams,
creeks, canals, and ditches overflow.
- Flood waters can enter some structures or weaken
foundations. Several places may experience expanded areas
of rapid inundation at underpasses, low-lying spots, and
poor drainage areas. Some streets and parking lots take on
moving water as storm drains and retention ponds overflow.
Driving conditions become hazardous. Some road and bridge
closures.
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is favorable for tornadoes
- THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY THAT INCLUDES TYPICAL FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY IN TRACK, SIZE AND INTENSITY: Potential for several
tornadoes
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
several tornadoes with a few possibly intense having larger
damage paths.
- PREPARE: Those living in manufactured homes or on boats are
urged to relocate to safe shelter before hazardous weather
arrives.
- ACT: Listen for tornado watches and warnings. If a tornado
warning is issued, be ready to shelter quickly.
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Significant
- The occurrence of scattered tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- Several places may experience tornado damage with a few
spots of considerable damage, power loss, and
communications failures.
- Locations could realize roofs torn off frame houses, mobile
homes demolished, boxcars overturned, large trees snapped
or uprooted, vehicles tumbled, and small boats tossed
about. Dangerous projectiles can add to the toll.
$$
If there's no power there's no place to get gas eitherThe ones who drive EVs will be challenged since when the power goes out no place to charge your Tesla.
As I recall, at this point (48 hrs out) Ian was predicted to hit Tampa, and then it started shifting south. Tampa airport closed, my son packed up and headed here, and then it missed him.I'm sure there will be an announcement tomorrow. We're now back in the cone and a hurricane watch has been issued.
Vehicles with a full tank of gas will be still full while still parked. EV vehicles that are parked with no power source for charging will suffer from battery drain every day it sits without being charged.If there's no power there's no place to get gas either
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