News Park attendance showing significant softness heading into the Fall 2018

[kong1802]

I know that most think of me as incredibly cool and hip, but in reality I’m very nerdy. Since the age of five (I should note this is no exaggeration) I have estimated things like crowd sizes (not just in stadiums but in big park areas like Magic Kingdom) wait times, distances, etc. In elementary school I once used a AAA trip tick to demonstrate to a room full of adults how everyone over estimates the population of their hometown, city, state, province, country, county, etc. Anyway, I have timed thousands of wait times at Disney World over the years and compared it to the posted wait. Over the last three or four years Disney’s accuracy has declined and the vector is as @Princess Leia describes it. However, as Martin notes, they are still very accurate quite often. I’d say the posted wait is correct about 75 to 80% of the time right now. At least based on my most recent trips. There are many other factors that could cause my data to be an outlier…… there are certainly factors that make my family different from the norm (as there are with all of our families). I know that @lentesta has the most data on this.

I think FP+ plays into it.

They know the # of FP's outstanding for that hour, but they don't know when in that hour that the FP's will arrive. They could all come at the beginning of the window, middle, end, or evenly distribute throughout...

 

[RustySpork]

I think FP+ plays into it.

They know the # of FP's outstanding for that hour, but they don't know when in that hour that the FP's will arrive. They could all come at the beginning of the window, middle, end, or evenly distribute throughout...

Ahh, the art of cat herding.

 

[geekza]

I think FP+ plays into it.

They know the # of FP's outstanding for that hour, but they don't know when in that hour that the FP's will arrive. They could all come at the beginning of the window, middle, end, or evenly distribute throughout...

Yes and no. They've been using FP+ for long enough that it would be easy for them to create a statistical model that shows distribution within any given hour. When I worked at Amazon we collected so much information that we could just email one of the statisticians and an hour later obtain a report with graphs showing just about any kind of thing you'd want to know.

 

[kong1802]

Yes and no. They've been using FP+ for long enough that it would be easy for them to create a statistical model that shows distribution within any given hour. When I worked at Amazon we collected so much information that we could just email one of the statisticians and an hour later obtain a report with graphs showing just about any kind of thing you'd want to know.

I agree. They know the statistical likelihood of about every scenario.

But outliers exist and anomalies take place from time to time, which IMO, causes the variance we see in the posted waits.

It's just like in the accrual world in accounting. I can show historically that a certain expense has been an average of x amount YOY and accrue for that difference, but that doesn't mean that my accrual will be 100% accurate as events happen out of our control that can cause expenses to be out of the norm for the period in question.

 

[disneyflush]

I know that most think of me as incredibly cool and hip, but in reality I’m very nerdy. Since the age of five (I should note this is no exaggeration) I have estimated things like crowd sizes (not just in stadiums but in big park areas like Magic Kingdom) wait times, distances, etc. In elementary school I once used a AAA trip tick to demonstrate to a room full of adults how everyone over estimates the population of their hometown, city, state, province, country, county, etc. Anyway, I have timed thousands of wait times at Disney World over the years and compared it to the posted wait. Over the last three or four years Disney’s accuracy has declined and the vector is as @Princess Leia describes it. However, as Martin notes, they are still very accurate quite often. I’d say the posted wait is correct about 75 to 80% of the time right now. At least based on my most recent trips. There are many other factors that could cause my data to be an outlier…… there are certainly factors that make my family different from the norm (as there are with all of our families). I know that @lentesta has the most data on this.

Assuming FOP Fastpasses are always fully distributed, wouldn't Disney know almost to the minute the average remaining wait time for basically all of the queue? I assume I could point to any random point and based on the historical data they could tell me I have X minutes remaining in line given all the variables. Are there variables they do not have that would cause the wait times to differ greatly from what is posted?

 

[Princess Leia]

Universal also feels dead today, but given this is my second trip (and last year felt quiet too), I’m staring to guess this is normal.

 

[RustySpork]

Universal also feels dead today, but given this is my second trip (and last year felt quiet too), I’m staring to guess this is normal.

It's normal for this time of year, yeah. UO park days are dead during HHN nights, as most people don't show up until HHN is about to start.

 

[JoeCamel]

Universal also feels dead today, but given this is my second trip (and last year felt quiet too), I’m staring to guess this is normal.

It's normal for this time of year, yeah. UO park days are dead during HHN nights, as most people don't show up until HHN is about to start.

It is also record setting heat today after a very long hot summer. Not many locals want to be out in it so a day at the parks is not very appealing.

 

[disneygeek90]

It is also record setting heat today after a very long hot summer. Not many locals want to be out in it so a day at the parks is not very appealing.

Also, at 11am on a Thursday, many locals are, you know, working.

 

[RustySpork]

It is also record setting heat today after a very long hot summer. Not many locals want to be out in it so a day at the parks is not very appealing.

Also, at 11am on a Thursday, many locals are, you know, working.

Great points as well! It's not quite cool enough for us to go outside yet, and since it's a weekday many of us are probably working.

I will say though in years past, I've enjoyed taking days off during HHN week nights because the parks are a blast due to the light crowds.

 

[disneygeek90]

Great points as well! It's not quite cool enough for us to go outside yet, and since it's a weekday many of us are probably working.

I will say though in years past, I've enjoyed taking days off during HHN week nights because the parks are a blast due to the light crowds.

I took off work this past Monday so I could go to HHN Sunday night thinking crowds would be light, I didn't even realize the local schools had off Monday too. Whoops.

 

[RustySpork]

I took off work this past Monday so I could go to HHN Sunday night thinking crowds would be light, I didn't even realize the local schools had off Monday too. Whoops.

HHN is probably the only event where I feel like the fast pass might be a good purchase. I meant that I enjoyed the parks during the day on weekdays during HHN.

 

[disneygeek90]

HHN is probably the only event where I feel like the fast pass might be a good purchase. I meant that I enjoyed the parks during the day on weekdays during HHN.

Yeah, I had even thought a Sunday would be better than a Friday or Saturday, but kids not having school Monday hurt me I think. I think the pass is definitely worth it if you're just going one day. I grabbed a "season pass" so I don't feel like I have to do every house every time, which is nice.

 

[Princess Leia]

Universal also feels dead today, but given this is my second trip (and last year felt quiet too), I’m staring to guess this is normal.

I take back this statement. It feels busier today than it was Thanksgiving weekend last year.

 

[mikejs78]

I know that most think of me as incredibly cool and hip, but in reality I’m very nerdy. Since the age of five (I should note this is no exaggeration) I have estimated things like crowd sizes (not just in stadiums but in big park areas like Magic Kingdom) wait times, distances, etc. In elementary school I once used a AAA trip tick to demonstrate to a room full of adults how everyone over estimates the population of their hometown, city, state, province, country, county, etc. Anyway, I have timed thousands of wait times at Disney World over the years and compared it to the posted wait. Over the last three or four years Disney’s accuracy has declined and the vector is as @Princess Leia describes it. However, as Martin notes, they are still very accurate quite often. I’d say the posted wait is correct about 75 to 80% of the time right now. At least based on my most recent trips. There are many other factors that could cause my data to be an outlier…… there are certainly factors that make my family different from the norm (as there are with all of our families). I know that @lentesta has the most data on this.

Speaking of @lentesta, I've found the wait times in his Lines app (which sometimes is similar to the MDE wait times, often shorter, occasionally longer) to generally be more percise than the posted wait times... @lentesta based on your modeling, does it seem Disney is often inflating the standby wait time vs what's actual? How often do they do this?

 

[RustySpork]

I take back this statement. It feels busier today than it was Thanksgiving weekend last year.

Getting closer to HHN

 

[kelknight84]

Speaking of @lentesta, I've found the wait times in his Lines app (which sometimes is similar to the MDE wait times, often shorter, occasionally longer) to generally be more percise than the posted wait times... @lentesta based on your modeling, does it seem Disney is often inflating the standby wait time vs what's actual? How often do they do this?

They definitely inflate. The other day I had a FP for Peter Pan and got stopped by the CM computer. So of course I had to look. It had a box for posted standby wait time that listed it at 60 minutes and then a box next to it that said actual standby wait time and it said 12 minutes. Disney knows what it is doing to control the crowds, and I definitely won't ever trust the wait signs anymore.

 

[Princess Leia]

They definitely inflate. The other day I had a FP for Peter Pan and got stopped by the CM computer. So of course I had to look. It had a box for posted standby wait time that listed it at 60 minutes and then a box next to it that said actual standby wait time and it said 12 minutes. Disney knows what it is doing to control the crowds, and I definitely won't ever trust the wait signs anymore.

Wat

 

[danv3]

Speaking of @lentesta, I've found the wait times in his Lines app (which sometimes is similar to the MDE wait times, often shorter, occasionally longer) to generally be more percise than the posted wait times... @lentesta based on your modeling, does it seem Disney is often inflating the standby wait time vs what's actual? How often do they do this?

Anecdotally, this past weekend, almost every posted wait time I saw was inflated by 25%-50%. It's obviously intentional and no doubt an important piece of their crowd management strategy.

 

[JoeCamel]

Wat

True dat.