News Park attendance showing significant softness heading into the Fall 2018

[CaptainAmerica]

The only common sense interpretation is to agree with your assessment of the data.

I can’t explain this enough - to have any “softness” in the business in a “boom” economy in WDW is just impossible to explain away. There are not 10s of millions of people “waiting for galaxys edge”...

1. Normal people don’t care enough...that’s becoming a weboard excuse/myth
2. It’s not the hottest property out there currently
3. If the prices were attractive...they would have backfilled the void.

It’s a combination of prices, the state of the experience, and twdco shrinking its customer pool through a mix of the two prior reasons.

Except that similar softness is being reported at UOR. I have no idea how to explain how Orlando tourism could be strong while Disney and Universal are both soft, but it's inaccurate to frame it as a uniquely Disney problem.

Ohai middle manager for TDO. Nice of you to bless us pleebs with your presence. If you could, tell us many more business 101 anecdotes. We are all made wiser for these types of dynamite drop ins.

That's lazy, you're a better poster than that.

1. "Everyone who disagrees with me works for TDO" is the WDWMagic equivalent of "everyone with different politics than me is Hitler."

2. Consider the total population of people who post here. We have teenagers, art teachers, retirees, pastors, college students, and high school dropouts in addition to doctors, lawyers, MBAs, and CPAs. There are lots of people who read and post here who have never taken anything resembling "Business 101," so the interactions between corporations, management, boards of directors, and shareholders isn't always apparent to everyone. Just because YOU understand the basics of the corporate form of ownership and are therefore thinking of second- and third-order implications of Disney's business decisions doesn't mean everyone is.

 

[xdan0920]

That's lazy, you're a better poster than that.

1. "Everyone who disagrees with me works for TDO" is the WDWMagic equivalent of "everyone with different politics than me is Hitler."

2. Consider the total population of people who post here. We have teenagers, art teachers, retirees, pastors, college students, and high school dropouts in addition to doctors, lawyers, MBAs, and CPAs. There are lots of people who read and post here who have never taken anything resembling "Business 101," so the interactions between corporations, management, boards of directors, and shareholders isn't always apparent to everyone. Just because YOU understand the basics of the corporate form of ownership and are therefore thinking of second- and third-order implications of Disney's business decisions doesn't mean everyone is.

Fair. I will admit one of my biggest pet peeves is when folks rush to defend Mickey by misquoting basic business principles. So I wind up making a snarky reply. I always, and this is probably more a me problem then anything else, read those type of posts as extremely condescending and I answer in kind. Not great!

 

[disneyworlddad]

I am seeing it slightly differently. For a small increase that may seem not so big of a deal, that little removal of the guac cost the company 2 QS meals that were going to by purchased DisneyworldDad. Was it totally worth the removal of that one item? In that case a $2.00 side of guac cost the company the price of two quick service meals so $15.00 - $20.00 depending on what is selected. Same idea with the items for purchase going up. I wonder how many more people will purchase items from other outlets as opposed to purchasing a similar item while in the parks, just due to how expensive it is in comparison to similar items available elsewhere? Marie

While I get where you are coming from, it isn't just me and it isn't just the guac. All of these little things they do to annoy people is going to affect their bottom dollar, in my opinion and many others, in the long run. Will it actually hurt them, that is yet to be seen. Which is why I'm saying this is just an opinion.

 

[Mjt5126]

Excellent. Going in October, hope it continues

 

[RustySpork]

While I get where you are coming from, it isn't just me and it isn't just the guac. All of these little things they do to annoy people is going to affect their bottom dollar, in my opinion and many others, in the long run. Will it actually hurt them, that is yet to be seen. Which is why I'm saying this is just an opinion.

I spend as little money as possible at WDW now. Rather than having a closet full of Disney clothes and paraphernalia as that stuff has aged and been replaced it's 100% been replaced with non-Disney branded stuff. Not because I hate Disney, but because why spend $35 on a t-shirt when I can get 3 for $30 at Kohl's? Why spend $75 on lunch at WDW when I can spend $30 for similar quality down the street. I've also stopped attending things like F&W, not only have the prices gone up even more this year, it's just recycled garbage.

I can braise beef and water down my alcohol at home just fine, thanks!

 

[disneyworlddad]

I spend as little money as possible at WDW now. Rather than having a closet full of Disney clothes and paraphernalia as that stuff has aged and been replaced it's 100% been replaced with non-Disney branded stuff. Not because I hate Disney, but because why spend $35 on a t-shirt when I can get 3 for $30 at Kohl's? Why spend $75 on lunch at WDW when I can spend $30 for similar quality down the street. I've also stopped attending things like F&W, not only have the prices gone up even more this year, it's just recycled garbage.

I can braise beef and water down my alcohol at home just fine, thanks!

This is what i'm talking about. I think if they reigned in costs a little bit, brought back some of that Disney magic guests would spend more.

 

[wannabeBelle]

While I get where you are coming from, it isn't just me and it isn't just the guac. All of these little things they do to annoy people is going to affect their bottom dollar, in my opinion and many others, in the long run. Will it actually hurt them, that is yet to be seen. Which is why I'm saying this is just an opinion.

Completely understood. Marie

 

[RustySpork]

This is what i'm talking about. I think if they reigned in costs a little bit, brought back some of that Disney magic guests would spend more.

I know I certainly would again.

 

[monothingie]

Except that similar softness is being reported at UOR. I have no idea how to explain how Orlando tourism could be strong while Disney and Universal are both soft, but it's inaccurate to frame it as a uniquely Disney problem.

Looking at some of the stats regarding hotel occupancy and demographics, it seems that the largest growth sector for Orlando area hotels on the low end side. The area of largest growth as well as type of hotels that are currently being built in largest quantity are the economy hotels. I know its circumstantial, but the correlation can be made that given how expensive both Disney and USO are, the demographic of visitors may not be visiting these places in quantity in favor of other local more cost-effective attractions. The economy is good, which means more people can travel and fly and take a vacation, but that doesn't mean everyone has the resources to be able to spend a week at WDW.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Except that similar softness is being reported at UOR. I have no idea how to explain how Orlando tourism could be strong while Disney and Universal are both soft, but it's inaccurate to frame it as a uniquely Disney problem.

Well that’s easy - they charge the same price too...aka “too much”

Both are trying to “create” a mass demographic that is Actually shrinking.

They feel the “middle class” that made $25-75,000 from 1955-2000 needs to exist at $125,000-150,000+ now to give them both the volume and the sweet love to the stock price.

But it’s not gonna hold. The “middle class” has changed permanently...and Disney parks were constructed for them and needs them. Same as universal.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Looking at some of the stats regarding hotel occupancy and demographics, it seems that the largest growth sector for Orlando area hotels on the low end side. The area of largest growth as well as type of hotels that are currently being built in largest quantity are the economy hotels. I know its circumstantial, but the correlation can be made that given how expensive both Disney and USO are, the demographic of visitors may not be visiting these places in quantity in favor of other local more cost-effective attractions. The economy is good, which means more people can travel and fly and take a vacation, but that doesn't mean everyone has the resources to be able to spend a week at WDW.

Agree completely...which means Disney’s continue push on pricing is a huge problem for them.

It’s not just hotels...the decline of the “middle” of retail is well documented for two decades. Because it’s cheap (mass audience) or luxury (Tiny audience) now...

The middle has no money. RIP Macy’s and Sears

 

[Disneyhead'71]

Universal is experiencing some softness, particularly this past summer. They were down around 3%. And HHNs bookings look very strong (Thanks, Stranger Things and Killer Klowns). Disney has a much bigger problem.

Universal believes that their softness comes from Disney bringing less people to town. The "a rising tide raises all boats" theory in reverse.

 

[LuvtheGoof]

Universal is experiencing some softness, particularly this past summer. They were down around 3%. And HHNs bookings look very strong (Thanks, Stranger Things and Killer Klowns). Disney has a much bigger problem.

Universal believes that their softness comes from Disney bringing less people to town. The "a rising tide raises all boats" theory in reverse.

So even Universal is blaming Disney for some of THEIR softness? Maybe Universal should invest money in Disney to build new attractions so more people will come, helping their bottom line as well. /s

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Universal is experiencing some softness, particularly this past summer. They were down around 3%. And HHNs bookings look very strong (Thanks, Stranger Things and Killer Klowns). Disney has a much bigger problem.

Universal believes that their softness comes from Disney bringing less people to town. The "a rising tide raises all boats" theory in reverse.

Perhaps if they didn’t raise prices equivalently to the penny religiously on everything?

...at some point you hope somebody breaks the “cycle of stock abuse”

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So even Universal is blaming Disney for some of THEIR softness? Maybe Universal should invest money in Disney to build new attractions so more people will come, helping their bottom line as well. /s

Yeah...but the tale of the recent tape doesn’t really make them look bad. They just started from a lower starting point.

 

[disneyflush]

Looking at some of the stats regarding hotel occupancy and demographics, it seems that the largest growth sector for Orlando area hotels on the low end side. The area of largest growth as well as type of hotels that are currently being built in largest quantity are the economy hotels. I know its circumstantial, but the correlation can be made that given how expensive both Disney and USO are, the demographic of visitors may not be visiting these places in quantity in favor of other local more cost-effective attractions. The economy is good, which means more people can travel and fly and take a vacation, but that doesn't mean everyone has the resources to be able to spend a week at WDW.

Universal will have value rooms starting at $73/night beginning in 2019 when Surfside/Dockside begin opening to the public. A podcast I listen to stated they are willing to hold their room prices at that level for 7 years to try and price out competition by losing money. This is a bid to flip the script from WDW vacations taking a day or 2 to visit USO over to USO becoming the home base of a lot more vacations. Should be interesting to watch it play out.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Universal will have value rooms starting at $73/night beginning in 2019 when Surfside/Dockside begin opening to the public. A podcast I listen to stated they are willing to hold their room prices at that level for 7 years to try and price out competition by losing money. This is a bid to flip the script from WDW vacations taking a day or 2 to visit USO over to USO becoming the home base of a lot more vacations. Should be interesting to watch it play out.

That was also the theory behind disney moderates and then the values.

Break even to sell more high yield profit bearing stuff.

But that was Eisner...and the line here is iger is so much better.

It’s why you see $300 rack rates for port Orleans and Caribbean some days now...makes total sense.

 

[HauntedPirate]

I think this harken's to Disney's general mindset these days. For example:

The FreeForm channel's "13 Days of Halloween" is now "31 Days of Halloween". Completely unnecessary. 13 days made it special. Now, it's just a whole month of repeated shows that isn't special. Their mindset seems to be - If it's popular, just water it down and stretch it out and we'll make more money from it!!! Except that by doing what they're doing, they ruin the experience, and they remove what made something special:

If 13 days is popular, then 31 days will be more popular!
If 15-20 Halloween parties over a month and a half are popular, then 35 Halloween parties over 3 months will be even more popular!!
If Food and Wine is popular with special food options and pricing, then extending the festival and watering down the offerings will be even more popular!!!

It's all just so...

 

[Disneyhead'71]

So even Universal is blaming Disney for some of THEIR softness? Maybe Universal should invest money in Disney to build new attractions so more people will come, helping their bottom line as well. /s

Are you under the impression that Disney guests don't day trip up to Universal?

 

[RustySpork]

So even Universal is blaming Disney for some of THEIR softness? Maybe Universal should invest money in Disney to build new attractions so more people will come, helping their bottom line as well. /s

Universal isn't blaming Disney, it's just one of many metrics. Universal has invested quite a bit in their parks and resorts over the last few years, and continues to do so.