News Park attendance showing significant softness heading into the Fall 2018

[disneyflush]

But...if attendance goes soft then that could indicate they are “cutting the pipeline” somehow...which is the fundamental point I always talk about.

Most of us on here are fairly well off. Good jobs. Multiple visits over the years. DVC members. We are always close to booking that next trip, its not usually a money issue. Some will book it regardless of specials or deals. Some need just a small push over the edge and 10%-15% room discounts are enough. Disney knows how to adjust the magic in marketing to find the sweet spot for a lot of us and back we go. But I really don't think Disney has the slightest clue on what will appeal to the next generation where pricing/value is the most important thing and they lack the nostalgia factor that hooks a lot of us. Not when they already have 6 figures of student loan debt and live at home with their parents until they are 30.

 

[Horizons '83]

Most of us on here are fairly well off. Good jobs. Multiple visits over the years. DVC members. We are always close to booking that next trip, its not usually a money issue. Some will book it regardless of specials or deals. Some need just a small push over the edge and 10%-15% room discounts are enough. Disney knows how to adjust the magic in marketing to find the sweet spot for a lot of us and back we go. But I really don't think Disney has the slightest clue on what will appeal to the next generation where pricing/value is the most important thing and they lack the nostalgia factor that hooks a lot of us. Not when they already have 6 figures of student loan debt and live at home with their parents until they are 30.

True... value (or perceived value) is the heart of most of our vacationing decisions. For Example, I saw that the Yacht Club dropped the Visa Cardholder discount from the rack rate of $446 to $290 a night. To me, that's a good value for a deluxe hotel. The Swan and Dolphin are actually a little higher than the Yacht Club currently, so my perception is that it's a good value.

 

[geekza]

Most of us on here are fairly well off. Good jobs. Multiple visits over the years. DVC members.

When do I get to qualify for these VIP perks?

While I think you are correct when it comes to the typical folks who post regularly here, I think it's also helpful to put that into perspective and realize that most people who post here are pretty die-hard WDW fans, which are a minority when you take into account the general population of people who go to WDW. I'd say the majority of them are just people who have a good time there, but aren't likely to go multiple times each year or even every few years. Then there are the people who either have gone in the past and would like to again or who have wanted to go, but have never been able to because of the cost. That last group is growing larger by the year.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

True... value (or perceived value) is the heart of most of our vacationing decisions. For Example, I saw that the Yacht Club dropped the Visa Cardholder discount from the rack rate of $446 to $290 a night. To me, that's a good value for a deluxe hotel. The Swan and Dolphin are actually a little higher than the Yacht Club currently, so my perception is that it's a good value.

They can’t sell the deluxes at rack and haven’t been able to consistently for about a decade.

That is 100% because they overpriced them - mostly to drive DVC sales - and they haven’t been able to come up with an answer. The one current case - other than this current reported “soft period” - where disney can’t set their own reality.

Lots of 40-60% off can be had at deluxes from agencies and that is consistent.

 

[Minnesota disney fan]

I think Geekza was right on with his well thought out analysis. I am of that older generation with just 3 channels on TV, and we all waited all week and watched Walt Disney's show barely able to contain ourselves. I would put on my mouse ears (wish I had them now probably worth a lot, sit in front of the TV and dream of being able to go to California to Disneyland. Never were able to afford it when I was a kid, but I', making up for it now.
So, I agree that the earlier fan base was more roped into Disney than right now. There is so much kids can tune into now with videos, Iphones, Ipads, etc, etc, etc and maybe some TV? I believe the dedicated fan base has changed with the times. I just wonder how this will affect Disney in the future? We still love and go to Disney yearly and still find the magic, for now.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

But I really don't think Disney has the slightest clue on what will appeal to the next generation where pricing/value is the most important thing and they lack the nostalgia factor that hooks a lot of us. Not when they already have 6 figures of student loan debt and live at home with their parents until they are 30.

You know...I’ve made this point to the economist/dusters that deny its existence probably 100 times...

If you love your current state of disney travel - this isn’t real.

Except it is...gen x is flat with boomers and y, z is looking to decline and maybe significantly in purchase power and relative wealth.

That hurts disney parks a ton. A $2 trillion college debt bubble isn’t a figment of Keynesian imagination. The populace (in the US) is already leveraged to the hilt...and that hurts a place that needs masses to function.

It’s something to watch.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think Geekza was right on with his well thought out analysis. I am of that older generation with just 3 channels on TV, and we all waited all week and watched Walt Disney's show barely able to contain ourselves. I would put on my mouse ears (which I had them now probably worth a lot, sit in front of the TV and dream of being able to go to California to Disneyland. Never were able to afford it when I was a kid, but I', making up for it now.
So, I agree that the earlier fan base was more roped into Disney than right now. There is so much kids can tune into now with videos, Iphones, Ipads, etc, etc, etc and maybe some TV? I believe the dedicated fan base has changed with the times. I just wonder how this will affect Disney in the future? We still love and go to Disney yearly and still find the magic, for now.

The way they handled marvel could reap long term benefits with this issue...

...but other things? I won’t bother to say it.

 

[geekza]

The way they handled marvel could reap long term benefits with this issue...

...but other things? I won’t bother to say it.

I don't know. With WDW unable to use the vast majority of Marvel characters, it will be difficult for the Florida parks to utilize Marvel in any meaningful way to attract visitors. It will certainly benefit the other parks around the world, but it's a definite issue when their most popular parks are being left out in the cold, for the most part. It's like spending a ton of money on work of art and then being forced to lock it in a closet for the foreseeable future. I think they were probably of the mind that they'd be able to find a way to get back the rights from Universal, but Universal isn't stupid and knows that it has a cash cow on its hand that will benefit from the free publicity given to the characters by Disney in their film and TV productions. They're making so much money off the back of the Marvel attractions that they can easily continue to pony up their yearly licensing fee to Disney.

Who knows, though. With the end of the current phase of Marvel films coming this year, it will be interesting to see if Disney will be able to continue the same level of success with its new crop of characters. Tastes do change and people do get burned out on specific genres. Ten years is a long time and the market is fairly saturated. If there comes a time when Superheroes fall out of favor again and Universal isn't making enough revenue from their Marvel attractions, they may be more willing to end the contract. Of course, if that turns out to be the case, then Disney wouldn't really be able to profit much from them either, at least in the short term.

I'm just speculating. Nobody can predict how tastes will or will not change, I guess.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I don't know. With WDW unable to use the vast majority of Marvel characters, it will be difficult for the Florida parks to utilize Marvel in any meaningful way to attract visitors. It will certainly benefit the other parks around the world, but it's a definite issue when their most popular parks are being left out in the cold, for the most part. It's like spending a ton of money on work of art and then being forced to lock it in a closet for the foreseeable future. I think they were probably of the mind that they'd be able to find a way to get back the rights from Universal, but Universal isn't stupid and knows that it has a cash cow on its hand that will benefit from the free publicity given to the characters by Disney in their film and TV productions. They're making so much money off the back of the Marvel attractions that they can easily continue to pony up their yearly licensing fee to Disney.

Who knows, though. With the end of the current phase of Marvel films coming this year, it will be interesting to see if Disney will be able to continue the same level of success with its new crop of characters. Tastes do change and people do get burned out on specific genres. Ten years is a long time and the market is fairly saturated. If there comes a time when Superheroes fall out of favor again and Universal isn't making enough revenue from their Marvel attractions, they may be more willing to end the contract. Of course, if that turns out to be the case, then Disney wouldn't really be able to profit much from them either, at least in the short term.

I'm just speculating. Nobody can predict how tastes will or will not change, I guess.

I don’t think disney tie ins to park rides is the way they draw business anymore.

I think it’s more keeping Disney IP in the front of consciousness through saturation...and marvel is front and center.

The fact that they don’t have tbe spiderman ride wouldn’t affect their foottraffic...is my theory. It’s also why they would never break that contract...

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

Most of us on here are fairly well off. Good jobs. Multiple visits over the years. DVC members. We are always close to booking that next trip, its not usually a money issue. Some will book it regardless of specials or deals. Some need just a small push over the edge and 10%-15% room discounts are enough. Disney knows how to adjust the magic in marketing to find the sweet spot for a lot of us and back we go. But I really don't think Disney has the slightest clue on what will appeal to the next generation where pricing/value is the most important thing and they lack the nostalgia factor that hooks a lot of us. Not when they already have 6 figures of student loan debt and live at home with their parents until they are 30.

I think the jury is very much out on that. The younger set appears wiling to spend on experiences even more so than goods. Disney crafts experiences for people, especially with some of the excellent tours they offer. I think there is a hook there -- one that people on boards will complain about forever, as they include the dreaded up-charge.

And I think the Disney brand pull for the younger set is being underestimated here. Parents I know always talked about how they'd rather have Disney movies or channels on than the competition because the quality was just higher on average. If you're going to watch a video a million times, better for it to be Little Mermaid or Frozen than the mind-numbing likes of My Little Pony et al. I think we're underestimating the younger set's exposure throughout childhood. With properties like SW and Marvel, I think that only adds to the wider appeal of Disney Parks with set.

And I think people always underestimate Disney's ability to change course when needed -- despite their track record. They're not on a conveyer belt that leads to one end, having sowed the seeds of an ultimate demise -- even if they have gone too far wrt pricing (which I don't stipulate -- I don't think we know yet). They can adjust; no reason I can see based on track record that they won't, if they hit an existential threat.

 

[John park hopper]

The Disney equivalent would be AP members. They gets lots of perks among them including Hotel, dining, shopping, and other discounts.

It’s not much but they make a little effort to keep frequent guests a little happy.

For us who live far from WDW and can not afford to go multiple times or even every year an AP is not cost effective. I can appreciate the few perks AP holders get but for those who have been with Disney for 30 or 40 years the number of visits add up -- would be nice if they showed some appreciation for our long time support

 

[disneyflush]

You know...I’ve made this point to the economist/dusters that deny its existence probably 100 times...

If you love your current state of disney travel - this isn’t real.

Except it is...gen x is flat with boomers and y, z is looking to decline and maybe significantly in purchase power and relative wealth.

That hurts disney parks a ton. A $2 trillion college debt bubble isn’t a figment of Keynesian imagination. The populace (in the US) is already leveraged to the hilt...and that hurts a place that needs masses to function.

It’s something to watch.

True. I also believe that the effects from the 2008 financial collapse have buoyed attendance and spend. Lots and lots of "established" Americans were very comfortable with equity in their homes and healthy balances in the IRA's. When the housing market crashed, many people questioned the wisdom of saving and investing all those years after seeing so much of their money disappear so quickly. I think people decided to spend their money on things and experiences rather than put it back into future investments. Disney was a prime target for this spending as a lot of people were going "I know its expensive but I just lost 10 times this much in the stock market without getting to enjoy any of it. Might as well." I don't see the next generation being as generous with their income.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

True. I also believe that the effects from the 2008 financial collapse have buoyed attendance and spend. Lots and lots of "established" Americans were very comfortable with equity in their homes and healthy balances in the IRA's. When the housing market crashed, many people questioned the wisdom of saving and investing all those years after seeing so much of their money disappear so quickly. I think people decided to spend their money on things and experiences rather than put it back into future investments. Disney was a prime target for this spending as a lot of people were going "I know its expensive but I just lost 10 times this much in the stock market without getting to enjoy any of it. Might as well." I don't see the next generation being as generous with their income.

Best post in months...maybe years...

Where are all my Disney price “economists” when something valuable is offered to learn??

 

[MickeyMinnieMom]

I think people decided to spend their money on things and experiences rather than put it back into future investments.

That’s an interesting idea... haven’t thought about this specific possibility before. I’m curious whether this thought in part comes from any data or anything you’ve read, or if it’s more of a gut feeling?

 

[disneyflush]

I think the jury is very much out on that. The younger set appears wiling to spend on experiences even more so than goods. Disney crafts experiences for people, especially with some of the excellent tours they offer. I think there is a hook there -- one that people on boards will complain about forever, as they include the dreaded up-charge.

And I think the Disney brand pull for the younger set is being underestimated here. Parents I know always talked about how they'd rather have Disney movies or channels on than the competition because the quality was just higher on average. If you're going to watch a video a million times, better for it to be Little Mermaid or Frozen than the mind-numbing likes of My Little Pony et al. I think we're underestimating the younger set's exposure throughout childhood. With properties like SW and Marvel, I think that only adds to the wider appeal of Disney Parks with set.

And I think people always underestimate Disney's ability to change course when needed -- despite their track record. They're not on a conveyer belt that leads to one end, having sowed the seeds of an ultimate demise -- even if they have gone too far wrt pricing (which I don't stipulate -- I don't think we know yet). They can adjust; no reason I can see based on track record that they won't, if they hit an existential threat.

You make some good points. I do agree that younger people want to spend on experiences more than goods for the most part. I think the percentage of them that are willing to bypass the next hottest Apple device or phone/tablet/whatever in order to put back the money it will take to get to WDW isn't as high as it was 20 years ago. My kids vary in age quite a bit but don't have the patience to watch the same video over and over as I did with Bedknobs and Broomsticks. They get on Youtube and watch 5-10 minute clips from content providers that upload twice a day sometimes. Content is always new and fresh; quality is very debatable. I could make some wide generalizations on brand loyalty for young people but I'm not knowledgeable enough on the subject to cast more than an opinion from my own experience.

My only issue with what you wrote is when you state they have an established track record of making pricing adjustments if they hit an existential threat. I feel like that is a low bar to judge their pricing flexibility and ability to decrease as needed. They have obviously never decreased prices in their history so track record is consistent but this has always been a bull market for them (outside of 9/11 and 2008ish) so they haven't needed to as it relates to a threat. I think any company in the world will choose to decrease prices if that is what stands between them and doom. If they ever decreased year-over-year prices I'm not sure Wall Street would have the guts to keep from panic selling.

 

[RustySpork]

For us who live far from WDW and can not afford to go multiple times or even every year an AP is not cost effective. I can appreciate the few perks AP holders get but for those who have been with Disney for 30 or 40 years the number of visits add up -- would be nice if they showed some appreciation for our long time support

They do show their appreciation, every time they pay executive bonuses.

Spoiler

OH, TO YOU! NAH!

 

[marni1971]

Daily attendance at HS is around 30k.

Is that dividing annual attendance by 365?

 

[MisterPenguin]

Yesterday, Monday, was pretty crowded at all the parks.

Looking at the times for rides, not as busy today, but nothing popular is a walk-on.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Is that dividing annual attendance by 365?

It appears to be dividing 10,000,000 by 365...which isn’t anywhere close to accaurate from an operational standpoint

 

[marni1971]

It appears to be dividing 10,000,000 by 365...which isn’t anywhere close to accaurate from an operational standpoint

My thoughts.