Pandoran problems 4.25.18

[mikejs78]

it absolutely effects how long individuals wait. Look at your own example. Where do you think those 1000 people with FPs are? Many of them are in other standby lines. Without FP, if you are 1000th in line, you are 1000th to ride. With FP, in your scenario, you are 2000th to ride, and 1000 of the people boarding before you have also been making another line longer.

If I have a FastPass for Space Mountain, then I'm not part of that 1000 standby line, but am going on other attractions that don't have a long wait - say, PeooleMover, Little Mermaid, Philharmagic, IasW....

If FastPass doesn't exist, I get in standby for Space Mountain instead of going on those other attractions. So the standby line is now longer than it was before. So when you get in line, you're no longer the 1000th person in standby (unless you get there at park opening), you're likely much higher than that, because most people would do similar. And since FP+ spreads the crowds for a headliner throughout the day, it keeps the line from spiking further. Since Disney knows that 1000 people will be able to do FastPass from 2-3 and another from 3-4, it evenly distributes them throughout the day. But if they're not distributed, people are more likely to line up for the headliners earlier, making the lines back up more. Instead of the 1000 people who have a FP from 1-2, another from 2-3 and another from 3-4, lets say 70% of that 3000 that would have had FP lines up between 1 and 2 (peak time).... So now your line by 2 is around 50% longer.

Conversely, rides that had shorter waits (less in demand rides) would have shorter lines generally because people are all tied up in the Space Mountain line, and many are probably walk ons, so the park wouldn't be using it's capacity effectively. Lines for headliners and D attractions would swell (get longer) and B/C ticket attractions could end up being underutilized.

 

[larryz]

This is a myth again. Suppose a ride can take 2000 people per hour and 1000 of those are FP and the other 1000 are standby, and the standby line is 30 min. Now suppose FP no longer exists. The ride can still take 2000 people per hour, but now those people who had FPs have to wait in standby. Lines stay about the same. FP tends to redistribute people, but I haven't seen compelling evidence that shows that it increases standby times. Queue theory says otherwise.

 

[drizgirl]

This is a myth again. Suppose a ride can take 2000 people per hour and 1000 of those are FP and the other 1000 are standby, and the standby line is 30 min. Now suppose FP no longer exists. The ride can still take 2000 people per hour, but now those people who had FPs have to wait in standby. Lines stay about the same. FP tends to redistribute people, but I haven't seen compelling evidence that shows that it increases standby times. Queue theory says otherwise.

That assumes that it's a zero sum game. It isn't. The presence of FP+ changes behavior. People who would normally skip the ride if standby is the only option decide to ride when they have FP. People who prefer to sleep in would skip the ride if getting a FP means you have to get up and get to the park early to get one. There are plenty of rides I only do if I have a FP.

 

[tnemgif]

Both rides are operating this morning.

 

[mikejs78]

That assumes that it's a zero sum game. It isn't. The presence of FP+ changes behavior. People who would normally skip the ride if standby is the only option decide to ride when they have FP. People who prefer to sleep in would skip the ride if getting a FP means you have to get up and get to the park early to get one. There are plenty of rides I only do if I have a FP.

So I guess if not for FP, you'd never go on SM, 7DMT, Splash, BTMR, TSMM, RnRC, ToT, TT, Soarin, FoP, Killimanjaro, Everest, etc...

Behavior changes but not that much. That's why 7DMT and FoP can swell to 2.5 to 3 hour waits in the busy season. There's a whole science around this. You're basing your position on your own opinion. I'm basing mine on an established science (Queuing theory).

The real problem with FastPass isn't FastPass itself. It's the fact that Disney decided to use it as an excuse not to continue investing in the parks and increasing capacity, and that's come back to bite them. Had they continued investing along with the increasing crowds, you'd have shorter lines today than before FP because capacity would have increased to meet demand, and it would be well distributed thanks to FP. But as it is it helped for a bit but now has reached the point where FP can't hide the capacity issues any longer.

 

[mikejs78]

So I guess if not for FP, you'd never go on SM, 7DMT, Splash, BTMR, TSMM, RnRC, ToT, TT, Soarin, FoP, Killimanjaro, Everest, etc...

Behavior changes but not that much. That's why 7DMT and FoP can swell to 2.5 to 3 hour waits in the busy season. There's a whole science around this. You're basing your position on your own opinion. I'm basing mine on an established science (Queuing theory).

The real problem with FastPass isn't FastPass itself. It's the fact that Disney decided to use it as an excuse not to continue investing in the parks and increasing capacity, and that's come back to bite them. Had they continued investing along with the increasing crowds, you'd have shorter lines today than before FP because capacity would have increased to meet demand, and it would be well distributed thanks to FP. But as it is it helpdnfor a bit but now has reached the point where FP can't hide the capacity issues any longer.

One other note on this regarding some recent empirical evidence: Toy Story Mania. It recently went to no FP due to the Toy Story Land construction . Based on your hypothesis standby time should have decreased. Yet if you look at ToueingPlans historical average wait times for similar crowd level days, the average wait time is pretty stable both with and without FP (within less than 10 min - some days without FP was a little higher, some days with FP was a little higher for same crowd level). This illustrates that FP doesn't make much of a difference at all in standby wait times, at least for the headliners.

 

[MisterPenguin]

And you really don’t understand why a current WDW employee won’t come on here and say “oh yeah, Disney’s marquee attraction is a mess, and here are specific details about its operation that should let Disney narrow down who is posting this information?”

Oh, stop it. Just stop it.

We get lots and lots of information spilled by current employees here (as much as they know). So, just stop it.

 

[MisterPenguin]

It wasn’t a dream.

See, with that kind of vagueness, we get this...

Or the third theater is being scavenged for spare parts especially if the ride is wearing faster than expected and WDW is out of ‘new’ spares

When the reality seems to be this...

I had just spoken to my friend a couple weeks ago who works FoP and actually asked how the theatres had been (as I had always heard rumours of issues on here)... he said they’ve been working consistently and rarely aren’t running all 4....

 

[GlacierGlacier]

Or the third theater is being scavenged for spare parts especially if the ride is wearing faster than expected and WDW is out of ‘new’ spares

How the heck would that even occur. Disney's shops can produce pretty much any part they need. They can even carve the chassis for the Kilamanjaro trucks out of a single block of metal - and they've got several of the machines that do that.

 

[GlacierGlacier]

One other note on this regarding some recent empirical evidence: Toy Story Mania. It recently went to no FP due to the Toy Story Land construction . Based on your hypothesis standby time should have decreased. Yet if you look at ToueingPlans historical average wait times for similar crowd level days, the average wait time is pretty stable both with and without FP (within less than 10 min - some days without FP was a little higher, some days with FP was a little higher for same crowd level). This illustrates that FP doesn't make much of a difference at all in standby wait times, at least for the headliners.

While FP has been disabled for TSMM, it's also been shut down to one to two tracks. That's two independent variables changed at once - not a viable experiment to draw a conclusion from.

 

[Gitson Shiggles]

I understand and agree there are a lot of variables that affect crowds and wait times, but wouldn’t a shutdown of just one of the FoP theaters cause a noticeable anomaly in the wait times?

 

[mikejs78]

While FP has been disabled for TSMM, it's also been shut down to three tracks. That's two independent variables changed at once - not a viable experiment to draw a conclusion from.

Two tracks. And that closed back in January. They haven't gone down to one track yet, at least when I was there last week. They had two tracks running both when they were still doing FP and when they stopped. So yes, it is a valid test.

 

[yensid67]

If this happens on my trip, I would definitely go to Guest Services and let them know what my plans were. I would expect them to offer 'something' for compensation, but that's not wrong! I have 1 day for Pandora and 1 day only. If we didn't have to plan our Disney parks to the minute, then I would be more flexible! Even then, I might not get to see Pandora. They should figure out how to offer guests in these situations the option...
1-Setting aside the end of the night for returning evacuated guest for the day or 2- have special passes that allow guests on a strict schedule to enter the park during the final hours before park closing and ride. Allowing them to come in around 5pm until park close with FP to Pandora would be acceptable! They would still spend a few dollars in the parks on food and souvenirs or 3- At least offer another admission to come back another day during their vacation or give them a discounted admission with only Pandora

 

[Casper Gutman]

If I have a FastPass for Space Mountain, then I'm not part of that 1000 standby line, but am going on other attractions that don't have a long wait - say, PeooleMover, Little Mermaid, Philharmagic, IasW....

If FastPass doesn't exist, I get in standby for Space Mountain instead of going on those other attractions. So the standby line is now longer than it was before. So when you get in line, you're no longer the 1000th person in standby (unless you get there at park opening), you're likely much higher than that, because most people would do similar. And since FP+ spreads the crowds for a headliner throughout the day, it keeps the line from spiking further. Since Disney knows that 1000 people will be able to do FastPass from 2-3 and another from 3-4, it evenly distributes them throughout the day. But if they're not distributed, people are more likely to line up for the headliners earlier, making the lines back up more. Instead of the 1000 people who have a FP from 1-2, another from 2-3 and another from 3-4, lets say 70% of that 3000 that would have had FP lines up between 1 and 2 (peak time).... So now your line by 2 is around 50% longer.

Conversely, rides that had shorter waits (less in demand rides) would have shorter lines generally because people are all tied up in the Space Mountain line, and many are probably walk ons, so the park wouldn't be using it's capacity effectively. Lines for headliners and D attractions would swell (get longer) and B/C ticket attractions could end up being underutilized.

What you’re saying here is essentially what I said - the people who would be physically in line for Space Mountain are now physically in line for something like PoC and virtually in line for Space. What you are describing, the system “evenly spreading out” FPs, is a virtual line, which effects the physical line.

Your more positive outlook seem to derive from the assumption that no one with a TSMM FP gets in standby for another headliner like ToT. You also assume that the people pushed to something like PoC don’t exceed the rides capacity to the extent that a significant line forms.

The key point is that FP increases lines by letting people wait in more than one line at once, even if some of that increase may be at non-headliner rides.

 

[Casper Gutman]

Oh, stop it. Just stop it.

We get lots and lots of information spilled by current employees here (as much as they know). So, just stop it.

I’ve been on these boards for years, and we absolutely don’t get torrents of current employees revealing backstage problems at the parks. What we do get are insiders relaying info, much of it gleaned from employees. Which, by the way, fulfills your request for the “friend” of an employee to reveal backstage info. You’re rejecting that info not because you have any reason to doubt the source - everything I’ve ever seen proves Marni is very reliable - but because the info doesn’t fit your agenda of defending Disney (unless a puppy is involved). You’re also acting as though you have some sort of authority to demand posters go “on the record,” which you absolutely don’t.

None of us here have unobstructed access to some ultimate, objective truth. What we have are various statements by different speakers. We have to use our experience and critical thinking to judge the trustworthiness of those statements. I find the claims of technical problems plausible based on those criteria.

 

[HauntedMansionFLA]

Anyone an electrician????

 

[mikejs78]

What you’re saying here is essentially what I said - the people who would be physically in line for Space Mountain are now physically in line for something like PoC and virtually in line for Space. What you are describing, the system “evenly spreading out” FPs, is a virtual line, which effects the physical line.

Your more positive outlook seem to derive from the assumption that no one with a TSMM FP gets in standby for another headliner like ToT. You also assume that the people pushed to something like PoC don’t exceed the rides capacity to the extent that a significant line forms.

The key point is that FP increases lines by letting people wait in more than one at once, even if some of that increase may be at non-headliner rides.

The virtual line doesn't exist. It's a made up fantasy that doesn't have any basis in queuing theory.

You're not virtually waiting because the # is capped. It would be virtually waiting if pretty much anyone could get a fp at any time for any ride they want. But because it's capped, it evenly distributes guests throughout the day and flattens peaks. Also consider the fact that it's a mostly level playing field, with everyone having the ability to preschedule these attractions.

There's just no evidence or statistical analysis out there that will support the theory that it causes longer waits across the board.

With the TSM example, the lines in other attractions didn't change much either. Show me mathematical proof.

 

[marni1971]

See, with that kind of vagueness, we get this.....

You’re right.

I should have said the FoP ride system runs hotter than expected and one theatre out of four is regularly and temporarily taken down for a period of time.

 

[Casper Gutman]

The virtual line doesn't exist. It's a made up fantasy that doesn't have any basis in queuing theory.

You're not virtually waiting because the # is capped. It would be virtually waiting if pretty much anyone could get a fp at any time for any ride they want. But because it's capped, it evenly distributes guests throughout the day and flattens peaks. Also consider the fact that it's a mostly level playing field, with everyone having the ability to preschedule these attractions.

There's just no evidence or statistical analysis out there that will support the theory that it causes longer waits across the board.

With the TSM example, the lines in other attractions didn't change much either. Show me mathematical proof.

Just because the number of FPs is capped doesn’t mean it isn’t a “line.” A certain number of people get FPs for 2-3. If those are gone, they get them for 3-4. You are waiting to board a ride, you are simply doing so somewhere else. That is, for all intents and purposes, a line. And it effects the physical line.

There are a huge number of variables involved in this discussion, many of which we don’t have access to. Even if we did, I’m no mathematician. All I have is my own sense of logic, which might very well be deeply flawed. If you are drawing on peer-reviewed sources, I’d be very happy to look at them.

 

[cspencer96]

Two tracks. And that closed back in January. They haven't gone down to one track yet, at least when I was there last week. They had two tracks running both when they were still doing FP and when they stopped. So yes, it is a valid test.

They have gone to one track and are using an alternate entrance and exterior queue. It is not a test of FP, it is a reconfiguration of the queue that has been planned since the third track was installed and Toy Story Land has been in the works.