Orlando High Speed Rail IS DEFINITE

[jt04]

I find it amusing that everyone balks at the costs of HSR, metro's, and other mass transit systems, but thinks nothing of the cost of building and expanding highways.

The mindset in America is cars are good and mass transit is bad, when in so many ways the opposite is true.

That is why I was so encouraged to hear the Miami Metrorail will soon connect to the Miami International Airport. There are also plans to connect with the major stadiums in Dade County. This is the kind of thing that will make mass transit effective and has the potential to generate private sector investment and opportunities. Strategically placed HSR will add to this dynamic and has the potential to revolutionize the transportation network across the US and create a much more efficient system that will benefit consumers and private industry.

 

[fillerup]

Again, I posted an article earlier which stated the train will be able to cover operating expenses from day 1 so your point is not valid.r.

jt - I missed this article and would like to read it. I did a search and haven't found it.

Could you repost the link when you get a chance?

Thanks

 

[TimeTrip]

A study was done on the Tampa/Orlando HSR and it determined it would not lose money from the start so obviously it would be utilized.

I'd still like to see that study. It probably doesn't count the initial cost of building the system, of which Florida is still on the hook for 10%.

The train would only have 1 or 2 stops between Orlando and Tampa. Bullet trains can reach speed much quicker than standard legacy train technology. The idea that the new trains can not take advantage of their speed on short runs is also not a valid point.

I wonder if the bulk of people that might actually use the system (MCO <-> WDW) will never travel at high speeds because of the distance of that run, with a stop at I-Drive in between.

One of the points trying to be made about high speed is that if you keep adding stops between your two primary destinations, the time savings start dwindling quite dramatically due to time to accelerate/decelerate and waiting for passengers. Once the time savings go down, you lose the speed advantage that HSR may have. Though if WDW is the "primary destination" for either end of the line, then there is only one stop in between, so perhaps it won't be so bad.

Such a high tech option will have the effect of revitalizing local transportation networks (and communities) and potentially create local transit that does not have to be subsidized by the taxpayer.

That seems INCREDIBLY optimistic to me. New transit options that don't run at a loss??

It would also reduce the need for road widenings and road maintenance. There will need to be an expansion of feeder networks to both airport stations and the Lakeland station due to demand. I believe it would also cause WDW to 'reimagine' its transportation network that will then connect to WDW's new station as will Celebration in all probability. Sea World, Universal, International Drive and the Convention Center would also move to add people mover systems that connect to the new station there in my opinion. Most of this is private sector investment and will add to the jobs created.

You think so? It seems doubtful to me that suddenly these "neat" people mover or re-imagined systems will crop up. Just look at Disney's reliance on busses and the monthly monorail debates ;-)

Since it will break even from day 1 and if the result of an HSR line is that I-4 does not need to be widened again, then the Florida taxpayer will have saved a substantial sum of money right there.

There was a post earlier that mentioned that the effect on I-4 would probably be minimal because most people wouldn't be travelling on it in a way where they would take HSR. The Florida taxpayer will still be on the hook for this eventually. IMO SunRail has the same problem. They want to run it near I-4, but I still can't figure out why they think it will make money. Orlando wasn't laid out in a way that it makes sense to have commuter rail, so who would really take advantage of it? Certainly some people, but not enough for it to be worth it to the general population.

Remember, all the economic activity during construction (at least 10,000 jobs) will generate huge tax revenues to the state just through sales taxes. As I have said, it really is a no brainer.

Sure, it will be great during construction (until it runs over budget), but if that one report about day one profitability it wrong or misleading, Florida is in for a nice hangover. Like someone said, it has "free puppy" written all over it.

 

[Krack]

The mindset in America is cars are good and mass transit is bad, when in so many ways the opposite is true.

Generally speaking, Americans are anti-social (for good or bad) and practical. When they go somewhere (long or short distances), they want to be by themselves (or at least away from strangers) and they want to go there as quickly and as easily as possible. Cars accomplish this goal. Mass transportation does not.

 

[rsoxguy]

Generally speaking, Americans are anti-social (for good or bad) and practical. When they go somewhere (long or short distances), they want to be by themselves (or at least away from strangers) and they want to go there as quickly and as easily as possible. Cars accomplish this goal. Mass transportation does not.

The term "independent" makes us sound so much nicer. :lol:

 

[lazyboy97o]

Actually, I think grandpa and the grandkids would be on the speeding train and they would be watching the cars on I-4 look like they are just sitting there. And often times they will be sitting there. So I guess in those instances they will look like they are in reverse. :lookaroun

How would they get to a station and why would that method not go the direction of their intended travel?

The train would only have 1 or 2 stops between Orlando and Tampa. Bullet trains can reach speed much quicker than standard legacy train technology. The idea that the new trains can not take advantage of their speed on short runs is also not a valid point.

Your point is only valid if you ignore the laws of motion. The limitation on speed is not just about rapid acceleration. There is an entire ergonomic and logistical issue you are ignoring.

 

[TP2000]

Generally speaking, Americans are anti-social (for good or bad) and practical. When they go somewhere (long or short distances), they want to be by themselves (or at least away from strangers) and they want to go there as quickly and as easily as possible. Cars accomplish this goal. Mass transportation does not.

Yup. It's fun to be free! :animwink:

 

[fillerup]

I'd still like to see that study. It probably doesn't count the initial cost of building the system, of which Florida is still on the hook for 10%.

I think the 10%, around $270,000,000 might actually be doable for the state of Florida.

But my concern is - what happens when this kicks in?

US Congressional Research Service:

"This study examined 258 transportation infrastructure projects around the world and found that in almost 90% of the cases costs were underestimated, that actual costs on average were 28% higher than estimated, and that rail projects in particular were the most severely underestimated, costing on average 45% more than estimated."

So, if history repeats, and that seems likely - we'll see cost overruns of 750 Million to 1.2 Billion. Who pays that?

Besides, on the issue of funding, I just don't accept that this is "paid for". When that phrase gets thrown around, there's some image of somebody in DC sending a check to Tallahassee.

Well, these days, it's the Chinese that are writing the checks, and Washington has been cashing them as fast as they can for years. I'm afraid, at this rate, your children, grandchildren and their grandchildren won't be making memories at WDW (or on a train), they'll be working 60 hours a week to pay the interest to the Chinese government.

 

[SeaCastle]

I think the 10%, around $270,000,000 might actually be doable for the state of Florida.

But my concern is - what happens when this kicks in?

US Congressional Research Service:

"This study examined 258 transportation infrastructure projects around the world and found that in almost 90% of the cases costs were underestimated, that actual costs on average were 28% higher than estimated, and that rail projects in particular were the most severely underestimated, costing on average 45% more than estimated."

So, if history repeats, and that seems likely - we'll see cost overruns of 750 Million to 1.2 Billion. Who pays that?

Besides, on the issue of funding, I just don't accept that this is "paid for". When that phrase gets thrown around, there's some image of somebody in DC sending a check to Tallahassee.

Well, these days, it's the Chinese that are writing the checks, and Washington has been cashing them as fast as they can for years. I'm afraid, at this rate, your children, grandchildren and their grandchildren won't be making memories at WDW (or on a train), they'll be working 60 hours a week to pay the interest to the Chinese government.

This is exactly the same reason Gov. Christie of NJ cut our state's rail tunnel project, which would have been the largest public works project in America. Once it goes over budget, who pays for it? The taxpayers? Heck, we haven't even paid off our old football stadium and we just opened our new one. I doubt the majority of Florida taxpayers have the foresight that jt has when it comes to the baby boomers migrating to Florida en force (if they ever do), one of his main arguments for a Florida HSR. So once the Florida HSR goes over budget, you're going to have a ton of P'od people who don't want to pay for something that they don't see as having any (immediate) benefit.

 

[Krack]

Yup. It's fun to be free! :animwink:

Well stated.

 

[jt04]

jt - I missed this article and would like to read it. I did a search and haven't found it.

Could you repost the link when you get a chance?

Thanks

Here it is. They are doing an update to the study as it appears they believe the "break even" study may have underestimated ridership projections.

http://www2.tbo.com/content/2010/dec/09/wisconsin-ohio-rail-money-going-to-other-states/

 

[TimeTrip]

Here it is. They are doing an update to the study as it appears they believe the "break even" study may have underestimated ridership projections.

http://www2.tbo.com/content/2010/dec/09/wisconsin-ohio-rail-money-going-to-other-states/

I'd still like to see the actual report, not a line about the actual report . Here is the line from the article

However an investment-grade report by two consultants, backed by a University of South Florida peer review group, found that the Tampa-to-Orlando route would break even in its first year. The state is updating ridership projections in a report due early next year.

Where did you read that they may have underestimated? If that's the case, I'm even less likely to believe that report. If it was gonna break even with their initial projections and now ridership will be higher, its gonna be RAKING in the dough. That immediately sends up all kind of red flags for me.

 

[jt04]

I'd still like to see that study. It probably doesn't count the initial cost of building the system, of which Florida is still on the hook for 10%.

No, I am sure it only refers to covering operating expenses. That 10% number should be covered by sales taxes generated due to increased economic activity generated by the project especially if it spurs other private sector activity. So, for Florida it is a very good deal in my opinion.



I wonder if the bulk of people that might actually use the system (MCO <-> WDW) will never travel at high speeds because of the distance of that run, with a stop at I-Drive in between.

It seems to me it will be a single system but will cover two different customers. The local Orlando tourist element will be the bread and butter of the system I think. Reread the thread. I already explained how I think the MCO to WDW element would work. Here is one of the examples of a benefit to potential customers. Someone living near WDW or Lakeland will have many more options for air travel. Because they can choose between Tampa or Orlando much easier. The rail/flight tickets create competition and that benefits the consumer. This happens in Europe. Depending on where you live traveling by train to fly out of an airport other than the closest one can save quite a bit of money. And often not add that much to travel time.

One of the points trying to be made about high speed is that if you keep adding stops between your two primary destinations, the time savings start dwindling quite dramatically due to time to accelerate/decelerate and waiting for passengers. Once the time savings go down, you lose the speed advantage that HSR may have. Though if WDW is the "primary destination" for either end of the line, then there is only one stop in between, so perhaps it won't be so bad.

Exactly and I have already explained how I think this will work. I don't believe you will ever see more stops than those already proposed.


That seems INCREDIBLY optimistic to me. New transit options that don't run at a loss??

That is what we will find out once the system is working. At least the HSR portion is expected to and I think it will revitalize feeder networks. Since it has never been tried in the states it is not proven but I would be very suprised if it did not have this effect.


You think so? It seems doubtful to me that suddenly these "neat" people mover or re-imagined systems will crop up. Just look at Disney's reliance on busses and the monthly monorail debates ;-)

Eisner discussed just such a system while he was still CEO. I'm certain such an investment by TWDC would at least partially hinge on HSR happening. Disney announced a year ago they support HSR. I think they realize the benefits to them which I think will still shock everyone by how successful it will be for WDW.


There was a post earlier that mentioned that the effect on I-4 would probably be minimal because most people wouldn't be travelling on it in a way where they would take HSR. The Florida taxpayer will still be on the hook for this eventually. IMO SunRail has the same problem. They want to run it near I-4, but I still can't figure out why they think it will make money. Orlando wasn't laid out in a way that it makes sense to have commuter rail, so who would really take advantage of it? Certainly some people, but not enough for it to be worth it to the general population.

HSR will bring a dynamic to mass transit not seen before in the US. I feel strongly it is the missing element in effective mass transit in the US. (which will always rely mainly on air transportation) HSR can be the answer to easier, more efficient travel. Which should translate to savings for consumers and taxpayers.


Sure, it will be great during construction (until it runs over budget), but if that one report about day one profitability it wrong or misleading, Florida is in for a nice hangover. Like someone said, it has "free puppy" written all over it.

You would do well to read the thread again. You keep bringing up points we have already discussed. The MCO to WDW segment reduces any real financial risk. WDW will only grow as will Tampa and Orlando. Trend lines. You can't ignore the trend lines. Think ahead 10 or 20 years plus.

I won't be responding to anymore points you bring up that have already been discussed. No disrespect, just want to keep the conversation moving forward.

...

 

[jt04]

How would they get to a station and why would that method not go the direction of their intended travel?

Most towns have some sort of transportation system. If they don't, HSR will make it practical and will spur the creation of one. Of course, Tampa is never likely to have a metro system that sends busses to Orlando.:veryconfu So they will get to the station by being dropped off, taxi, bus, light rail, hitching, walking, segway, bicycle.......lots of ways.


Your point is only valid if you ignore the laws of motion. The limitation on speed is not just about rapid acceleration. There is an entire ergonomic and logistical issue you are ignoring.

Or you are overstating. HSR works in Europe on some links that are shorter than Lakeland to Tampa or WDW.

I think the 10%, around $270,000,000 might actually be doable for the state of Florida.

But my concern is - what happens when this kicks in?

US Congressional Research Service:

"This study examined 258 transportation infrastructure projects around the world and found that in almost 90% of the cases costs were underestimated, that actual costs on average were 28% higher than estimated, and that rail projects in particular were the most severely underestimated, costing on average 45% more than estimated."

So, if history repeats, and that seems likely - we'll see cost overruns of 750 Million to 1.2 Billion. Who pays that?

Besides, on the issue of funding, I just don't accept that this is "paid for". When that phrase gets thrown around, there's some image of somebody in DC sending a check to Tallahassee.

Well, these days, it's the Chinese that are writing the checks, and Washington has been cashing them as fast as they can for years. I'm afraid, at this rate, your children, grandchildren and their grandchildren won't be making memories at WDW (or on a train), they'll be working 60 hours a week to pay the interest to the Chinese government.

An HSR "backbone" as proposed for Tampa to Orlando has the potential to make your figures insignificant. I think the 'side effects' would be overwhelmingly positive. As I have expressed and explained many times. I believe it would spur tremendous private sector spending for years.

jt04 have you ever been to a big city like NY and use the public transportation???

Have you ever been to Europe and use their public transport??

I can say yes to both of those and have been on the high speed train through France.

Speed works for running through the country side and subways etc work in densely populated areas. Orlando and Tampa are set up for cars where as the old cities in the US and Europe lend themselves much more to public transportation. I would much rather just hop on a train to go somewhere unless I'm carrying a bunch of stuff. The main problem goes back to the first and last mile, the train needs to get you somewhere easily. Airport to Disney World and Universal??? That makes sense and I bet would do fine money wise. Tampa to Orlando I'm not so sure about but I'm not really sure where or why people are always driving up and down I-4 other than to go town to town. If people are driving town to town or town to Orlando then you will need a bunch of stops, stops mean time.

We will see.... BTW I do realize how much highways cost etc. If no one uses the train then you get a double whammy. I know the guys who made up the figures about breaking even right of the bat would never have an agenda either.

Again HSR, as proposed, adds an element not seen before here. So comparing the potential of HSR with legacy rail systems seems naive to me.

 

[fillerup]

Here it is. They are doing an update to the study as it appears they believe the "break even" study may have underestimated ridership projections.

http://www2.tbo.com/content/2010/dec/09/wisconsin-ohio-rail-money-going-to-other-states/

jt - Thanks for the link. And congratulations on being less of a cynic than I am.

I'm afraid that I too, am skeptical of a "study" (with no link), by two "consultants" (unnamed). And the study was peer reviewed by the University of South Florida.

Unmentioned in the article, is that USF is currently competing with other interests in Polk County to have the Lakeland HSR station built adjacent to the soon to be built USF Polytechnic campus next to I4. Certainly no conflict of interest there.

Just sayin'......

 

[jt04]

jt - Thanks for the link. And congratulations on being less of a cynic than I am.

I'm afraid that I too, am skeptical of a "study" (with no link), by two "consultants" (unnamed). And the study was peer reviewed by the University of South Florida.

Unmentioned in the article, is that USF is currently competing with other interests in Polk County to have the Lakeland HSR station built adjacent to the soon to be built USF Polytechnic campus next to I4. Certainly no conflict of interest there.

Just sayin'......

I understand this and I think this is why the incoming govenor wants to consult his own experts. But with the feds agreeing to pay what looks like 90%, it is tough to find a downside. And as Rep Mica suggested, if they push to finish the MCO-CC-WDW portion as soon as possible than the system will start generating substantial revenue even before 2014 minimizing the risk even more. Cynical people will suggest that is all that will be built but these systems are constructed at the same time all along the proposed project so I think it would be done by 2014. But since the MCO-CC-WDW is less than 20 miles it could be finished much sooner by working 24/7 or just pouring in more resources.

I am as cynical as anyone when it comes to such government spending but this seems like something different. Something that will pay off. And if not, it will be proof we shouldn't be banking on HSR in the future.

Remember, the money is allocated and will be spent on HSR. I think this is an ideal test of the technology and the best use of that money.

 

[TimeTrip]

You would do well to read the thread again. You keep bringing up points we have already discussed. The MCO to WDW segment reduces any real financial risk.

Well, we do agree on the promise of MCO to WDW. I just don't see why that should subsidize what may be a money losing leg out to lakeland/tampa. Run it from MCO to i-drive to WDW and be done with it. At those distances it doesn't even need to be high speed, unless you want to plan for the future run. They certainly should be considering building that part first, as you mention.

On another note, I wonder what will happen to all of the now newly unused taxi/shuttle services. Remember the hub-bub that arose from the taxi drivers once DME started up? People will gain jobs from HSR, but others will lose .

WDW will only grow as will Tampa and Orlando. Trend lines. You can't ignore the trend lines. Think ahead 10 or 20 years plus.

What are the trend lines? I honestly don't know.

 

[fillerup]

Well, we do agree on the promise of MCO to WDW. I just don't see why that should subsidize what may be a money losing leg out to lakeland/tampa. Run it from MCO to i-drive to WDW and be done with it.

Amen to that, but it won't happen. And it won't happen for the same reason that our 1.2 Billion Sunrail won't go within 10 miles of Disney, Uni, I Drive, or anywhere else that our lowest paid workers need transportation options. Rather, it will run from scenic Debary in Volusia County, to the remote Poincianna in south Osceola.

Federal regs prohibit the use of "their" funds to go to projects that are perceived to primarily serve tourists. This is how they achieve their projected ridership of 4300 per day.

That's why HSR has to include the Tampa leg to qualify for federal money.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Run it from MCO to i-drive to WDW and be done with it. At those distances it doesn't even need to be high speed, unless you want to plan for the future run.

High speed rail runs on standard gauge track. New track is not going to be like the decades old track that was a problem for the Acela Express project. Lay the track now for a conventional heavy rail line, even to Tampa if the market is there. If, in the future it is found that rail could connect Tampa and Orlando to some other city that is far enough away, run a high speed line to their. The high speed train can still make the stops people really desire along this route before heading out onto the high speed track. Make Orlando/Tampa the end point of a real high speed line.

 

[googilycub]

High speed rail runs on standard gauge track. New track is not going to be like the decades old track that was a problem for the Acela Express project. Lay the track now for a conventional heavy rail line, even to Tampa if the market is there. If, in the future it is found that rail could connect Tampa and Orlando to some other city that is far enough away, run a high speed line to their. The high speed train can still make the stops people really desire along this route before heading out onto the high speed track. Make Orlando/Tampa the end point of a real high speed line.

The Acela line does not have "decades old track." The track is replaced every couple of years....