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Opening WDW with Social Distancing
- Thread starter MisterPenguin
- Start date
Being pedantic- allowing a 6 foot distance from everyone isn't a square, it's a circle, so the area would be more like 113 square feet per guest. So your numbers are going to be off by up to 20% or so (bearing in mind that queues and switchbacks will be much more based on linear area). Also I don't think the 6ft rules applies to individuals within family units (i.e. a mom can hold her children's hands), so the space needed gets much more difficult to calculate.
I considered the circles but if you stick people in a an open field with 12 foot diameter circles you have dead space between the edges of the circles which aren't big enough for people, like if you put crayons in a box you'll notice the dead space so you would have to take into account that dead space also... so just to make it simple I used the square the real number is somewhere between the 144 and the 113... I used to 144 to keep it simple. The real amount of space is probably halfway between the two... but when making general assumption 144 is close enough to make the point I was making which is the park isn't going to be profitable if they enact social distancing.... You would also have to account for the number CMs which would take up space and reduce the usable for guests.
As for families... That has been one of the odd things which I've been baffled at... I've seen the instances where a couple has walking together outside have been admonished for not social distancing to the point that you sometimes see couples walking further apart than usual in an apparent attempt o follow those social distancing rules which have to guess aren't followed when they are at home or in bed together... but that's something they need to be clear about because it is has been a bit silly from the start.
I've done a couple of online continuing education class which are typically required to be done in person to get credit but because of the virus are being accepted if done via webcast and frankly they are less painful, not only do they not charge as much but you don't have to be as engaged when the speaker starts going off on tangents with no bearing on the topic, nor do you have to waste time and money traveling to where ever the course is being taught. Thus far this has been the only benefit to the shut down that I've found... If I can find a few more courses to complete my annual requirement I may be able to cut my annual cost by 70 to 80 percent from last year. I'm just hoping they don't go back to the required physical presence at the courses until June by then I will be done with this years stuff.ugh... online conventions. I participated in one just a few weeks ago. It was two days, just a tad shorter than the in person event was last year. Keynote sessions were fine. Some breakout done in a lecture format also worked. What did not work was the chat area with the host vendor reps or with the participating vendors. Just not practical for the one-on-one discussions that are so helpful at events like this. Product demos were so-so... they tried to have Q&A via chat, but that part did not work well. The demo itself was good, and it was nice to be able to rewind. The attempt to have networking remotely was a bust. Soooo many people trying to "talk" at the some time through the chat tool - terrible experience! And, then, the part of conventions we love the most - the boondoggle party - just could not happen. Last year we got to enjoy the B-52s in concert. This year, nothing. Of course, the remote conference also was free, so I guess I cannot really complain about missing the boondoggle. Oh, and no swag
As for the swag, I think the only ones that will miss that are my kids that generally get that stuff which for the life of me I have to wonder about sometimes. I'm think that maybe 1% of the swag over the years was something I could actually use... but the stress balls, cheap pens and random nick-knacks were probably just destine for the landfills anyways. Frankly I'm kind of baffled when I think of all the stress balls I've gotten over the years my kids never want them anymore and yet I don't think I could find one anywhere in the house or office right now if had to... either someone stealing them or they are magically rolling away when no one is looking.
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Walt Disney1955
Well-Known Member
Exactly. People forget this. Orlando is not home to a lot of other sorts of industry like factories or such. Heck, it was swamp before WDW came in. I say the same thing about Niagara Falls, which is where we are close to. That is not a thriving place right now, they rely on tourists and they are hurting right now. It isn't as if there is a thriving auto industry to tide them over. People come to see the Falls, the Casinos, the attractions down the main strip, etc. Once you get off the beaten path you notice how much they need tourism.
People don't understand this, and it doesn't surprise me because most people don't realize just how badly 3rd world countries are hurting even more now because the world is shut down. More than ever, you need to open the economy back up, because starvation will kill more people - and I don't know the numbers but it may have already - than the virus ever will.
But just strictly on a Central Florida thing, the good news is beaches opened up in California and from the pictures Huntington Beach was just swarming with people. That's good news, because the wool can't be pulled over people's eyes unless they comply, which we have with this thing. You just have to take the approach with this thing that if you have a weakened immune system then stay home. If you are scared or nervous, then stay home. The rest of the world can make their own choices like grown ups and should be able to do what they want. I drive a car to Florida knowing the risks of an accident. I still do it. And I'll die in a car before I ever do from Covid-19. So they need to open things up again and get back to normal. People that come will want to be there and will think nothing of it. Social distancing doesn't work at a theme park, so stay home if you don't like it. Eventually people will "Monday Morning Quarterback" this thing and realize they shut the world down for something that hasn't even come close to normal flu levels, and it won't be pretty. The good news is, I think enough people are freaked out that the crowds shouldn't be too bad come October I am guessing. All of the sudden that seems like a good time for us to maybe go, and I wasn't thinking that a couple of months back.
Sirwalterraleigh
Premium Member
1. The “openings” have been by and large boned at this point. Tremendous risk and lack of self control. The California situation was embarrassing...they are the world’s 6th largest economy and they risk undoing all the actions they’ve taken with good effect for 2 months.
2. Orlando is what it is. They are dependent on tourism because they were built that way. They take unlimited money for their corporate lords when times are good...construction everywhere...
Well there has always been a downside in bad economic times.
I think people forget that in this artificially long “boom”
The needs of Orlando can’t be the top priority when you’re talking widespread interwoven Health concerns. I’m not talking even stare to state...I’m talking from Orange County to Polk County.
This is massively risky to rush. Damage from a policy error would be much worse than extending a closure.
And it’s even more complicated than that. The airlines are a mess. They have adopted any plans to operate safely. They’re pushing pork as usual. And they’ve already been bailed out - I might add...
Things are not looking good as of now. Even if you “open”...new polling shows about 70% of Americans aren’t comfortable “reopening” as of now...mostly due to lack of confidence.
Not many mysteries there.
But the point is Orlando can fling open its doors...still goes bankrupt rather quickly on 30%
VaderTron
Well-Known Member
Wow, a lot of thought went into all the ways we will have to adjust things in order to distance properly. Here are a few observations that may make things easier.This thread created for the narrow topic of discussing opening WDW with social distancing still in force since it keeps coming up in the Big Thread…
WDW and Social Distancing
People have been arguing whether it is possible that WDW can open and still maintain social distancing.
Of course WDW can!... If they only let 10 people in the park. Yes, that’s a cheeky answer, but it brings us to problem number one: How few people can WDW have in the park so as to allow for social distancing and still be financially profitable? Obviously, WDW isn’t going to open just to run a deficit.
And so, people talk of ‘reduced attendance,’ but by how many? Let’s use the Magic Kingdom as our park of example. The MK in 2018 (the 2019 figures are due by this June) had 20.859 Million guests for the year. On average, that’s 57K guests per day… we’ll call it 50K per day. They’re not there all day all at once, so, let’s say the average peak attendance is 30K.
No, I don’t think (and I would certainly hope not) that anyone would think that you can put 30K people in the MK and still maintain the 6 foot social distance (6SD). And so, what’s the minimum number of people that can be in the MK for the MK to make a profit? Actually, I don’t know that figure.
Social Distancing
And, let’s for a moment talk about what we mean by the 6SD. The six foot figure is from the distance that the large and micro drops we aerosolize by speaking and talking get thrown from our mouth-holes. Sneezing and coughing throw them farther, but we’re supposed to cover our mouths for coughs and sneezes. We generally don’t when we talk.
And let us presume, for this thought exercise, that a 6SD means a good faith effort to keep 6SD at all time. So, this isn’t just with regard to a parade or fireworks. Oh, no. If we’re going to be consistent, it means 6SD at all times, everywhere, without exception (as a matter of WDW policy… not when people accidentally invade our 6SD).
And so, for this discussion *anything* that would violate the 6SD is removed from the list of to-dos, just like parades and fireworks are off the table, unless we can find a workaround that protects the integrity of the 6SD rule. Anything short of that means you’re not really serious about 6SD.
Transportation and 6SD
For the MK to open, guests have to get there. What if airlines have to enforce a 6SD? Well, there goes 60% at least of long distance travelers (not to mention continuing bans on international flights). And when you land in Orlando, is the Magical Express going to pick you up? If it does, it can’t have different parties next to one another… not back to back, and not aisle seat to aisle seat. So, the ME is running at about 50% capacity.
At the MK, the Contemporary gives you the perk of walking to the gate. Every other monorail resort, and the general parking at MK makes you travel by monorail or boat to get to the MK gate. For people driving in, they’ll need to leave an empty row between each group on the tram. So, trams are at 50%.
First, let’s see how bag check goes: There are two lines going to each security person… oops, can’t have two lines next to each other. So now, there are half the number of security lines. Now let’s say there are 10 guests/families in a line. Well, that line is now 60 feet long. And each 60 foot line needs to be 6 feet from each other. And no switchbacks that pass people to walk right pass you, otherwise, you’re violating 6SD. Just how much space will that take up?
Now it’s onto a monorail or watercraft. In a monorail cabin, perhaps 4 individuals can sit in the four corners. Or it’s only one or two families. That’s about a 30%-50% capacity for monorail. Same for the ferries. Can’t pack 300 people on a ferry. Perhaps just 50 that can still keep 6SD.
How about those showing up on buses? They can skip the train/ferry, however, the bus, in order to maintain 6SD will only have about 6 groups (and not the 80 people they can pack in). Then those coming off the buses still need to go through the reduced security.
Once people disembark from mass transit, there is usually one snaking line leaving the station until it can spread out at the tapstiles. But remember, everyone in that snaking line needs to allow for 6SD. If you’re the last to leave a monorail, you may have to stand there for about three minutes for everyone to spread out before you can go.
Now that you’re at the tapstile… oops, they can only operate one of the four touchpoint clusters at a time to keep people separated. The lines at the tapstile can’t be next to each other, and everyone in line needs to keep 6SD. So, you’ll have a dozen lines going back about 300 feet… to where? Where can all those lines snake to without being on top of each other? And where do new arrivals getting off the ferries go if they can’t get off the ferry because of the crowds spread out by 6SD is taking up the entire pre-tapstile entrance?
That’s just the entrance. Let’s go into the park….
Queues
What is the MK except a series of queues?Well with 6SD, a hundred person queue is now a 600 foot line. And remember, because of 6SD, you can’t have switchbacks unless the pathing honors the 6SD and doesn’t make one line go right past another. So once the queue is quickly filled, it will have to exit the queuing area and bleed into ‘the street’ and be a long line that everyone in the street has to keep 6SD from. Just how many of them can wind their way through Fantasyland before they completely block the street? After all, you can’t pass them if it will violate 6SD. And you can’t make them do tight switchbacks.
So, is the answer to have FP-only or VQ-only for all the attractions? Well, that still creates a line. Let’s say VQ is 15 minute blocks. And remember, 100 families in a line creates a 600 foot 6SD line. So, do you schedule only 100 people each 15 minute block and pray they don’t all show up at once. And if you do, are you OK with every ride only having a capacity of about 500 people an hour? Then you have to deal with all the VQ slots being given out with no standby line available (since the capacity of all the rides are now so low).… and, oh, the people will holler about that.
Rides
When it comes to filling up the ride vehicles with guests, we’ve already seen that with the strictures on the queues, you’re not going to have to worry about spreading people out. They’ll be arriving spread out.
But then, you still need to spread them. So, the PotC and IaSW boats only get 2 parties each. Coasters fill only every other row. Astro Orbiter can only get one party at a time going up and down in the elevator. Only 40 people on the Riverboat at one time! Only 5 people each time on the raft to TSI.
Shows
Shows have a double whammy. We all are presuming the theater will only be about 30-40% filled to allow for 6SD. But what about their lobbies? Shows have a holding pen, much smaller than the theater, to hold the guests before they go into the theater. You can, at best, get only 10% of the theater’s capacity in the holding lobbies before they need to start spilling into the street for a long single-file queue that respects 6SD and doesn’t switchback on itself.
Food
Just like theaters, we all presume that with 6SD, table service restaurants will have reduced seating. Will they also get the size of their lobby increased fourfold? Because, like theaters, restaurants have small lobbies for the guests waiting for their rezzie to get called. So, like theaters, the line for restaurants will snake out into the streets causing more street congestion.
So, are quick serves the answer? Many quick serves have cashiers waiting on two lines. Oops… too close. They can only do one line now. And the people in the line need to observe 6SD and snake out into… where? The seating area? The street?
Is mobile ordering the answer? Well, if you’ve seen it in action, you know at times there can be 10 groups hanging around the mobile order window waiting for their number to be called. Now try spreading them out to observe 6SD. Just think of the Dole Whip counter where everyone in that dense crowd needs to keep backing up until 6SD is reached. They’d completely block that already overcrowded intersection.
Merchandise
All the merch stores have tiny aisles such that you can’t pass one another without violating 6SD. But, you know… Disney can think outside the box! How about they remove 80% of their shelving? Ya think they’d do that? Even if they made all paths one way, that would mean you’d get stuck behind other guests blocking your way over and over again. There’d be gridlock. Shopping becomes a nightmare (more so than it already is).
Jus’ Being There
Just think about walking about MK always trying to keep 6SD. What a nightmare. Of course, you can’t have anything that would attract a crowd. No streetmosphere. No Dapper Dans. No marching band. No stage shows. No trolley shows.
So What is the Solution
Masks: If everyone’s wearing masks, then 6SD goes away and you only need to tell everyone to sanitize their hands before touching their face. (And have sanitizers literally everywhere.) The hard part here is getting small children to keep theirs on.
Reduced Capacity: If you have 6SD, then you’re rides and attractions are automatically at 30-40% capacity. So, limit attendance by that much. Instead of daily peaks of 30K, aim for 10K. Can the MK be profitable at that level? How does WDW handle a nightmare scenario of capping the MK to 10K, and then 20K show up?
Social distancing at 6ft has typically been useful when speaking about those NOT in your family or household. Obviously, we may treat older or high-risk family members differently, but for the most part families don't need to remain separated. With that understanding, (which you included a few places in your post such as "groups" on a monorail) many of the suggested line lengths would be significantly reduced. 100 person lines wouldn't be 600 ft long. Many groups bunched together as families would significantly shorten that. If the average was 3 per group lines of 100 would be around 200 ft long. Trams could carry a large number of passengers. Installation of plexiglass on top of the seat backs would allow each family group to ride in back-to-back rows. Capacity of rows then only depends on how many are in your group. Similar plexiglass dividers could go up un monorail cars dividing back-to-back seats so each set of doors could be used by 1 group.
You mentioned masks erasing the need for 6ft distancing. That hasn't been implied as being the case. Masks are asked to be worn AND remain 6ft away from others when out in public. I don't see Disney undermining that dual precaution, especially since most masks worn are not the type that protect the wearer, it only reduces the spread of what is breathed, coughed, sneezed, or spoken out of their mouth. (And that's if they are wearing it correctly to cover both the mouth and nose, which not everyone does.)
So, I see the issue being somewhere in between what you described in the first part of your original post and the conclusion. Distancing will still be needed with masjs, but with some alterations along with family groups sitting/standing together lines and occupancy won't have to be outrageously spread out.
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CaptainAmerica
Premium Member
How about they just open everything as normal, take necessary precautions to protect the cast members, and let everyone else decide whether or not they want to take the "risk" and see what happens?
This might just be the most overblown hysterical ridiculousness in human history.
This might just be the most overblown hysterical ridiculousness in human history.
VaderTron
Well-Known Member
Hello! Welcome to Earth! Where are you visiting from? It's exciting to finally meet someone from another planet. While this is an amazing moment, we do have some unfortunate news. At this time this entire planet is under galactic quarantine. We have had over 200,000 people die in just a few months despite taking extreme measures to slow the spread of a new and deadly disease. While we are happy that number didn't blossom into the millions due to the extreme measures taken to protect humanity, we do not currently have a way to prevent or cure the disease, but we are working on it. We would love to show you some of the things that make this place amazing, like WDW, an experience like no other. However, the more we interact with one another the more quickly the disease spreads. We have limited capacity to treat those who are overwhelmed by the disease, especially since many take weeks of hospitalization and care before recovering. If our healthcare system is maxed at capacity, deaths will exponentially increase due to lack of proper care, and a large number of unnecessary deaths will result that could have been prevented by more aggressive control measures.
It may be best that you return to your planet for now and return when we have had a chance to get this situation under control. We suggest self-quarantining on your vessel for 14 days before returning planetside.
jaklgreen
Well-Known Member
The problem is that what is "normal" hand washing for most people is severely inadequate. The amount of people that go around for hours touching things and then go and pick up their burger without washing their hands is astounding. Normal for my family is to regularly wash our hands. We don't touch any food or our face without first washing our hands. We will order the food, take it to our table, and then take turns going and washing our hands before anyone touches anything. We do this in our day to day life also. Even at sit down restaurants, we look at the menu, order, hand back the menu and then wash our hands before our food comes. I have worked in food for decades and SEE how many people come in and start eating without stopping at the restroom to wash up. Sanitizer is NOT an alternative to actually cleaning your hands. We also take off our shoes when we get home and wash our hands immediately before going further into the house. We don't bring all of those germs back into our house with us. Same for hotel room. Most people really have very poor hygiene and that is why these things spread so fast.
Parker in NYC
Well-Known Member
I continue to find it amusing to read here that some folks have such faith in humanity at the parks (have they visited?). I find it incredibly amusing that folks who have such faith in humanity also have faith that said said humanity will adhere to social distancing guidelines. More power to y'all.
A well-plotted spreadsheet don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing. But continue drafting and running formulas if it floats your boat.
A well-plotted spreadsheet don't mean a thing if it ain't got that swing. But continue drafting and running formulas if it floats your boat.
CaptainAmerica
Premium Member
Sheer innumeracy. 200,000 on a planet of 8 billion is statistically zero, and the risk curve basically starts at age 50 and doesn't really kick in until 80+.
Like I said, let people decide for themselves.
Right. "Social distancing" in a theme park environment is entirely incoherent. Either say you think the parks need to stay closed for two years until we have a vaccine or let the parks open (roughly) normally.
Parker in NYC
Well-Known Member
Oh, people are have been "Monday Morning Quarterbacking" on a Friday for months. I don't see your point.
VaderTron
Well-Known Member
That is WITH the extreme measures in place. If you like statistics then you will realize it only takes a few percent of the world population dying to affect your entire way of life. With millions of people dead who will do the work that pays your salary, farms/harvests/produces/packs/ships/stages your food, cleans your water, provides for your medical care, builds your transportation vehicles, removes your garbage, repairs the roads you travel, and on and on and on....
Here's a stat for you. What are the chances you could do all of those things for yourself? If you think the global death percentage is low, wait till you see how low that percentage is. (Hint: it's statistically zero)
And if you think death is the only bad outcome you should ask the people who's lungs are permanently scarred or the thousands going for dialysis WHO DIDN'T DIE if the disease was "no big deal".
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eliza61nyc
Well-Known Member
eliza61nyc
Well-Known Member
But your last statement is the extreme cases. The OVERWHELMING VAST majority of people who contact covid 19 DO NOT die, do not have hospitalizations, do not go on ventilator.
I am not dismissive of the seriousness of this pandemic but it is in no stretch of the imagination doomsday. I really do think the country needs to do a collective deep breath
Prior to this cluster you know what in the US we already had a shortage of labor mainly from the fact here in the states no one is doing menial hard labor for the pennies it pay but that's an entirely different argument
Who will collect the garbage?? The trash service because no even unchecked covid would not kill off everyone.
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eliza61nyc
Well-Known Member
Ok off topic, did anyone see the tick tock report claiming 5G is the cause of covid??
VaderTron
Well-Known Member
But your last statement is the extreme cases. The OVERWHELMING VAST majority of people who contact covid 19 DO NOT die, do not have hospitalizations, do not go on ventilator.
I am not dismissive of the seriousness of this pandemic but it is in no stretch of the imagination doomsday. I really do think the country needs to do a collective deep breath
Prior to this cluster you know what in the US we already had a shortage of labor mainly from the fact here in the states no one is doing menial hard labor for the pennies it pay but that's an entirely different argument
Who will collect the garbage?? The trash service because no even unchecked covid would not kill off everyone.
Comments such as these and those in this category are going to age about as well as the late Feb/early Mar comments about this subject. Let's come back here to in November/December. If it wasn't so tragic it would be a hoot to read these.