Only a "Fool" Would Believe the 5th Park is Near...

[danlb_2000]

Let me give an example of what I'm talking about. In this example, I am making up numbers to make a point...

Let's say there are 40 million Star Wars fans who have never been to an Orlando theme park and had no intention of ever going to an Orlando-area theme park.

Let's say, after Star Wars Land opens, these 40 million changed their mind and decide to go to WDW to experience Star Wars Land.

Not only has WDW gained 40 million new visitors, but the Orlando-area theme park market grew as well by 40 million people.

In this case, WDW not only won those 40 million new park guests, but their market share for the Orlando-area also went up because these same 40 million stayed within the 4 theme parks and WDW property and did not go to the other area attractions.

Now, let's say half of those 40 million are also Star Trek fans. Let's say, Universal builds a Star Trek theme park in Orlando - its third gate. That will mean that 20 million of those 40 million Star Wars fans will also visit Universal. This would decrease Disney's market share growth because they will now be sharing 50% of that growth with Universal.

Now let's say also that there are 60 million Star Trek fans who said they would never go to an Orlando-area theme park. This changes, of course when Universal opens its Star Trek park. This results in Universal growing the Orlando-area theme park market by 40 million guests (60 million minus the 20 million Disney attracted because of Star Wars).

These numbers are pure market growth - growth that would not have happened had either company not opened Star Wars and Star Trek attractions. As you can see, this new growth also has the potential of feeding off one another.

My point is, if Universal is creating new market growth, Disney will loose its share of that market growth if it does nothing to attract it.

And you totally missed the point. The question is not whether Disney should build something if the market grows, obviously they should, the question is whether it's worth adding more parks, or whether it should add onto the existing ones. When it was just MK, I think the cost/benefit calculation was pretty easy when it came to adding Epcot, but as time goes on I think that equation get's harder. I do think they may \eventually build a major new 5th gate, I just don't think it will happen any time soon. Even if attendance grew dramatically, I don't know that there would ever be a 6th gate unless people's vacation habits changed considerably.

 

[Franklin47disneyguy]

Adding a fifth park would mean an extra park day for an averege WDW vacation which means more park ticket income. If they invest in parks people all ready spend a day in, the people go on one extra attraction. A new park means an extra day of shopping, dinning and hotel stay. Another argument is that a fifth park is better for the guest flow maybe releasing some pressure from the Magic Kingdom. And the next question is what would the theme be since we have a castle park, a furture/world showcase park, movie park and zoo? I hope for a DisneySea style park which is without doubt the best ThemePark not just Disney park in the world.

 

[Cmdr_Crimson]

I will follow what Jimminy Cricket taught me a Looooong time ago...

 

[Buried20KLeague]

I hope for a DisneySea style park which is without doubt the best ThemePark not just Disney park in the world.

A park like Disney Sea will never be built in the states. As much as we would all love it.

 

[Buried20KLeague]

To me a 5th park would just push more people toward Universal for a more manageable visit where you don't feel like they rushed through or missed a lot due to time restrictions. My opinion? Yes, I have no data to back that statement up, just what I would be inclined to do.

"Since Disney added that new park there's just too much to do. I'd rather go to Universal."

Yep. Sounds about right. The math checks out.

 

[Nickels5]

I don't know why I'm even bothering with you but here's some of my older posts.


I'm also not a fan the human mannequins in E.T. or most of KidZone. Thankfully I won't have to deal with the latter much longer. The Cat in the Hat ride could also use some work. Fear Factor and the unused Toon Lagoon theater need to go as well. The Lost Continent may look great but the attractions are completely lacking (sound familiar?). I really hope the rumor of removing Dr. Doom for an Avengers E Ticket is true as well. Tower of Terror is the much superior drop ride. I have plenty of criticisms for Universal but based on their recent actions I also see from them a want to fix things unlike Disney who takes two steps forward with things like Avatar and Star Wars and 4 steps back with Frostrom and Toy Story Land. Don't even get me started on the missed potential of New Fantasyland.

You'll probably just ignore all of this and continue to paint me as super Universal fanboy so just go ahead.

I agree that nfl is light on rides and the rides that they do have are c-tickets, but much like universal gets rave reviews for the theming of diagon alley I give Disney the same type of credit because the land itself is an attraction.

 

[odmichael]

"Since Disney added that new park there's just too much to do. I'd rather go to Universal."

Yep. Sounds about right. The math checks out.

Most people that stay on Universal Property are going directly because of this quote. You can stay at Universal for 4 days and not feel rushed. Stay at the Portifino Bay, Hardrock, or Royal Pacific and you get the express pass for the rides which further makes the day relaxing. You have plenty of time to enjoy City Walk, your hotel pool, and the parks without feeling rushed. And it all costs significantly less than staying at Disney. If you add a 5th gate, you not only increase the amount of money required to be spent but you increase the amount of time that goes into stressing and planning the vacation.

Earlier in the thread people joked at the fact that I can't afford a Disney vacation and I actually did laugh. I don't take it personal. But the reality is the Disney vacation is slowly becoming a thing for the wealthy. The "Value" resorts are trash and still more money than they should be.

To do Disney the right way and enjoy it, you need to stay at the very least a moderate resort or off-site Buena Vista resort and do this for a week. So you're averaging $250 a night for a room which is $1,500 (no tax) for 7days/6nights. Then for a family of four, a 5-day park hopper is $1,742.36 (including tax) or with the Water Park option, $1,853.12. Let's say I skip the waterpark, That's already over $3,242.36. With airfare for four, add another $1000. Lastly, the cost of food, souvenirs, etc. could be upwards of $500 at the bare minimum. That makes the final cost of a 1-week stay for a family of four at a moderate resort approximately $5000! At a moderate resort!!!

I love Disney. But like I said earlier, there's no way I'd be able to afford a 5th gate. I hope by the time Pandora, and then Star Wars is complete, I've gone back to Disney once hopefully twice. But remember for each new land we are getting prices won't get any cheaper. Don't be surprised if by the time Star Wars is out at 5-Day park hopper is in the range of $2,100 and this vacation is closer to $6,000. If a 5th gate is built, a 5-Day Park Hopper for 4 could be in the range of $2500.

People keep acting like Universal is better than Disney and all the new rides are what are drawing people in. Indirectly that may be the case. But in reality it's just more affordable to those with a lower income.

Also don't think that because attendance has seen an increase at Universal that those patrons are spending more. Like I said, Disney is becoming for the wealthy. I bet you per person significantly more money is spent in Disney per day than Universal.

The moral of all this. Let Universal play "catch-up". It's not going to do anything to Disney's profits because the people that can afford to go to Universal are not all the same people going to Disney. Like what was mentioned, a 5th gate will only further limit the number of people that can do a full quality Disney Vacation.

 

[Mike S]

I agree that nfl is light on rides and the rides that they do have are c-tickets, but much like universal gets rave reviews for the theming of diagon alley I give Disney the same type of credit because the land itself is an attraction.

Diagon Alley also has the main attraction to back up that theming plus the experience of riding the Hogwarts Express. NFL is a nice looking land but like Lost Continent lacks the attractions to match.

 

[odmichael]

Diagon Alley also has the main attraction to back up that theming plus the experience of riding the Hogwarts Express. NFL is a nice looking land but like Lost Continent lacks the attractions to match.

I'm not so sure NFL and Lost Continent is a fair comparison. Lost Continent is a mess ...but they do have Mythos which is pretty good.

 

[Buried20KLeague]

Most people that stay on Universal Property are going directly because of this quote. You can stay at Universal for 4 days and not feel rushed. Stay at the Portifino Bay, Hardrock, or Royal Pacific and you get the express pass for the rides which further makes the day relaxing. You have plenty of time to enjoy City Walk, your hotel pool, and the parks without feeling rushed. And it all costs significantly less than staying at Disney. If you add a 5th gate, you not only increase the amount of money required to be spent but you increase the amount of time that goes into stressing and planning the vacation.

Earlier in the thread people joked at the fact that I can't afford a Disney vacation and I actually did laugh. I don't take it personal. But the reality is the Disney vacation is slowly becoming a thing for the wealthy. The "Value" resorts are trash and still more money than they should be.

To do Disney the right way and enjoy it, you need to stay at the very least a moderate resort or off-site Buena Vista resort and do this for a week. So you're averaging $250 a night for a room which is $1,500 (no tax) for 7days/6nights. Then for a family of four, a 5-day park hopper is $1,742.36 (including tax) or with the Water Park option, $1,853.12. Let's say I skip the waterpark, That's already over $3,242.36. With airfare for four, add another $1000. Lastly, the cost of food, souvenirs, etc. could be upwards of $500 at the bare minimum. That makes the final cost of a 1-week stay for a family of four at a moderate resort approximately $5000! At a moderate resort!!!

I love Disney. But like I said earlier, there's no way I'd be able to afford a 5th gate. I hope by the time Pandora, and then Star Wars is complete, I've gone back to Disney once hopefully twice. But remember for each new land we are getting prices won't get any cheaper. Don't be surprised if by the time Star Wars is out at 5-Day park hopper is in the range of $2,100 and this vacation is closer to $6,000. If a 5th gate is built, a 5-Day Park Hopper for 4 could be in the range of $2500.

People keep acting like Universal is better than Disney and all the new rides are what are drawing people in. Indirectly that may be the case. But in reality it's just more affordable to those with a lower income.

Also don't think that because attendance has seen an increase at Universal that those patrons are spending more. Like I said, Disney is becoming for the wealthy. I bet you per person significantly more money is spent in Disney per day than Universal.

The moral of all this. Let Universal play "catch-up". It's not going to do anything to Disney's profits because the people that can afford to go to Universal are not all the same people going to Disney. Like what was mentioned, a 5th gate will only further limit the number of people that can do a full quality Disney Vacation.

I completely disagree.

First off, you don't have to stay on-site to "do it right". In fact, IMO the only reason to stay on site is if you're on the monorail line. And that's clearly for those that can afford it. You could make an argument for AKL because of the unique option of the savannah, but that resort is so far away from everything, so it never makes my list. Outside of those resorts, there's very little reason to choose a Disney resort over an off-site. We stayed in a 2-bedroom 2-bath at Wyndham Bonnet Creek for $169 a night over Spring Break. 9 nights. AWESOME resort with huge rooms. And it's basically on-site.

Airfare doesn't change regardless of Uni or Disney.

Food doesn't change regardless of Uni or Disney.

It comes down to park tickets.

And my point was that the previous post I was replying to suggested that people would choose Uni over Disney because with a 5th gate Disney would just have too much to do. That was his reasoning... Too many options. It wasn't about cost. It was that at Uni he could take his time, where at Disney he'd be rushed. That logic is way off, and it's just someone trying to be obtuse.

Your point was that a 5th gate might price you out. That's a whole different argument. And that's one I can understand.

And in my opinion, WDW has always been a luxury vacation. It's more expensive to spend a week there than most places and has been for probably 20 years. You could often even spend a week in another country and spend less. But they'll only raise ticket prices as high as tolerance will allow. Clearly they're not there yet, but there IS a ceiling for what the masses will be willing to pay to spend a week on Tower of Terror. I wouldn't expect a 5th gate to increase ticket prices by 30% overnight or something of that nature. There would likely be a small uptick (as usual) and TDO would see the revenue increase largely due to the huge capacity increase that comes with an entire new gate.

I would actually expect to see tickets prices at Uni effected more drastically by a 3rd gate (plus their water park) than Disney by a 5th.

 

[Goofyernmost]

"Since Disney added that new park there's just too much to do. I'd rather go to Universal."

Yep. Sounds about right. The math checks out.

I does if you factor in time. Besides, I didn't say there would be mass exodus to Uni. But, with someone like myself, and I don't believe I am alone in this, if an additional park were to exist, I wouldn't have time to see all of them anyway. So what would be achieved really, profit wise? Not whether or not it would be visited, but, instead what financial gain would be made by having a 5th park when they can't sufficiently service 4 of them. My opinion is none at all. If I only have the time to go to 4 parks, that is all I'm going to go to even if they had a hundred of them. Peoples vacation time also includes travel to and from the resort. It wouldn't help anything other then possibly the amount of people in MK, but, I seriously doubt that will change in the near future. It is still the lead park. Not to mention that there is no "math" to check out since it is merely all theory. If I were a betting man, I would put a lot of money on the fact that it will never happen in my lifetime and if it did, by the time it happened, I would be too old to hold my hand out to collect my winnings.

 

[Buried20KLeague]

I does if you factor in time. Besides, I didn't say there would be mass exodus to Uni. But, with someone like myself, and I don't believe I am alone in this, if an additional park were to exist, I wouldn't have time to see all of them anyway. So what would be achieved really, profit wise? Not whether or not it would be visited, but, instead what financial gain would be made by having a 5th park when they can't sufficiently service 4 of them. My opinion is none at all. If I only have the time to go to 4 parks, that is all I'm going to go to even if they had a hundred of them. Peoples vacation time also includes travel to and from the resort. It wouldn't help anything other then possibly the amount of people in MK, but, I seriously doubt that will change in the near future. It is still the lead park. Not to mention that there is no "math" to check out since it is merely all theory. If I were a betting man, I would put a lot of money on the fact that it will never happen in my lifetime and if it did, by the time it happened, I would be too old to hold my hand out to collect my winnings.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

I completely disagree.

First off, you don't have to stay on-site to "do it right". In fact, IMO the only reason to stay on site is if you're on the monorail line. And that's clearly for those that can afford it. You could make an argument for AKL because of the unique option of the savannah, but that resort is so far away from everything, so it never makes my list. Outside of those resorts, there's very little reason to choose a Disney resort over an off-site. We stayed in a 2-bedroom 2-bath at Wyndham Bonnet Creek for $169 a night over Spring Break. 9 nights. AWESOME resort with huge rooms. And it's basically on-site.

Airfare doesn't change regardless of Uni or Disney.

Food doesn't change regardless of Uni or Disney.

It comes down to park tickets.

And my point was that the previous post I was replying to suggested that people would choose Uni over Disney because with a 5th gate Disney would just have too much to do. That was his reasoning... Too many options. It wasn't about cost. It was that at Uni he could take his time, where at Disney he'd be rushed. That logic is way off, and it's just someone trying to be obtuse.

Your point was that a 5th gate might price you out. That's a whole different argument. And that's one I can understand.

And in my opinion, WDW has always been a luxury vacation. It's more expensive to spend a week there than most places and has been for probably 20 years. You could often even spend a week in another country and spend less. But they'll only raise ticket prices as high as tolerance will allow. Clearly they're not there yet, but there IS a ceiling for what the masses will be willing to pay to spend a week on Tower of Terror. I wouldn't expect a 5th gate to increase ticket prices by 30% overnight or something of that nature. There would likely be a small uptick (as usual) and TDO would see the revenue increase largely due to the huge capacity increase that comes with an entire new gate.

I would actually expect to see tickets prices at Uni effected more drastically by a 3rd gate (plus their water park) than Disney by a 5th.

You are flat out wrong. WDW hasn't always been a luxury vacation. That started around 2000. Our first stay at The Poly cost $69/night.

 

[Buried20KLeague]

You are flat out wrong. WDW hasn't always been a luxury vacation. That started around 2000. Our first stay at The Poly cost $69/night.

Did you read my next sentence? I said it has been for about 20 years. More accurate would be between 15-20.

 

[odmichael]

I completely disagree.

First off, you don't have to stay on-site to "do it right". In fact, IMO the only reason to stay on site is if you're on the monorail line. And that's clearly for those that can afford it. You could make an argument for AKL because of the unique option of the savannah, but that resort is so far away from everything, so it never makes my list. Outside of those resorts, there's very little reason to choose a Disney resort over an off-site. We stayed in a 2-bedroom 2-bath at Wyndham Bonnet Creek for $169 a night over Spring Break. 9 nights. AWESOME resort with huge rooms. And it's basically on-site.

Airfare doesn't change regardless of Uni or Disney.

Food doesn't change regardless of Uni or Disney.

It comes down to park tickets.

Then you're paying for a car rental which is about $80 per day which evens out the cost from staying at a Moderate Resort. However, you are definitely correct that staying off resort property you can get very nice rooms.

The comparison I'm making is a premium resort at Universal has much more value to it than a Disney moderate resort or a few of the Deluxe Resorts. The other factor at play isn't ticket sales but time. You can do Universal in 3 or 4 days. You need at least 5 (probably 6) to do Disney the right way. So hotel stay becomes a factor not necessarily because of price but because your days stayed becomes reduced.

And my point was that the previous post I was replying to suggested that people would choose Uni over Disney because with a 5th gate Disney would just have too much to do. That was his reasoning... Too many options. It wasn't about cost. It was that at Uni he could take his time, where at Disney he'd be rushed. That logic is way off, and it's just someone trying to be obtuse.

Your point was that a 5th gate might price you out. That's a whole different argument. And that's one I can understand.

Oh I see. Fair enough.

And in my opinion, WDW has always been a luxury vacation. It's more expensive to spend a week there than most places and has been for probably 20 years. You could often even spend a week in another country and spend less.

I agree. What I was getting at is that less and less people can afford a quality/luxury Disney vacation than they could in the past. It's always been a luxury vacation. But what used to be a middle class vacation is becoming more of an upper-middle-class vacation. For the middle class Universal has become a smart and realistic option.

But they'll only raise ticket prices as high as tolerance will allow. Clearly they're not there yet, but there IS a ceiling for what the masses will be willing to pay to spend a week on Tower of Terror. I wouldn't expect a 5th gate to increase ticket prices by 30% overnight or something of that nature. There would likely be a small uptick (as usual) and TDO would see the revenue increase largely due to the huge capacity increase that comes with an entire new gate.

I think that ticket prices have to increase with a 5th gate assuming people are going to go to all 5 parks. You are probably right that it won't be substantial. The tickets will likely be cheaper per day because they know you will be spending at least 5 days at the parks. But prices are gonna go up. If a 5th park were currently present, I can't see ticket prices remaining the same as they currently are, even if there is room for a greater capacity of people.

Do you really think a 5th gate will increase capacity with such ferocity? I suppose initially it might because of the hype. But afterwards, I'm more skeptical.

I would actually expect to see tickets prices at Uni effected more drastically by a 3rd gate (plus their water park) than Disney by a 5th.

Yes that makes sense.

 

[Buried20KLeague]

Then you're paying for a car rental which is about $80 per day which evens out the cost from staying at a Moderate Resort. However, you are definitely correct that staying off resort property you can get very nice rooms.

But that rental car isn't NECESSARY. I'm with you that personally every time I'm in Orlando I have a car the whole time, and that's no matter if I'm going to Disney or Uni. I want to be able to go where I want when I want to. But if you're trying to pinch pennies to afford a trip, you don't get a car. You either use free hotel shuttles (which nearly all have to Uni outside of the Disney resorts. lol)

The comparison I'm making is a premium resort at Universal has much more value to it than a Disney moderate resort or a few of the Deluxe Resorts. The other factor at play isn't ticket sales but time. You can do Universal in 3 or 4 days. You need at least 5 (probably 6) to do Disney the right way. So hotel stay becomes a factor not necessarily because of price but because your days stayed becomes reduced.

Totally agree that Uni's hotels are a better value (and better resorts!) than even a class lower resort at Disney. No argument here.

The argument I don't really understand is why someone would let the size of resort (and amount of things to do) effect where they chose to go. Why would it matter to me if I went to Uni and got to see every little thing, compared to that same amount of time at Disney and get to see 70% of what I prioritize? I wouldn't skip a Disney vacation simply because I knew I didn't have enough time to see it all.

Do you really think a 5th gate will increase capacity with such ferocity? I suppose initially it might because of the hype. But afterwards, I'm more skeptical.

I do. Sure. Another park would also mean more hotels, restaurants, etc... They would fill that capacity. Trust me, I'd love to see a 5th gate simply take 15% of the crowds away from the existing 4 parks, but I just can't see that being the case. I think you'd see crowds levels remain very close in the existing 4 parks, with a 5th park just as crowded. The people will come. They always come. Disney's marketing would ensure it.

 

[odmichael]

The argument I don't really understand is why someone would let the size of resort (and amount of things to do) effect where they chose to go.

Resort size is complicated. Like I said, the value resorts are trash. So you upgrade to moderate. But in order to enjoy what you are paying for, you need more time to spend there; which in itself costs more money.

I know I'm making it sound like 1 type of Disney vacation and it's the only way to spend a Disney vacation. It's definitely not. But it's how a lot Disney vacations are spent by many people.

Why would it matter to me if I went to Uni and got to see every little thing, compared to that same amount of time at Disney and get to see 70% of what I prioritize? I wouldn't skip a Disney vacation simply because I knew I didn't have enough time to see it all.

If I'm going to spend all of the money to stay at Disney World, I'm not going to settle to only do 70% of the things I want to do. That's like going to the Magic Kingdom and saying, "Oh darn, I got to ride Splash Mountain and Big Thunder Mountain. But we don't have time for Space Mountain. Oh well. We can do that one next time we come on vacation." You bet I'm getting on Space Mountain!

In that hypothetical scenario, you likely are saving money because you are only at Magic Kingdom one day. But then you're not spending money on a luxury vacation if you're only going to do part of the parks for part of the day. Maybe I'm crazy. I don't know.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

People aren't going to say, "I'm not going there they have too many cool things to do."

What people will say is a WDW vacation is overwhelming and exhausting. (Meaning: there are too many things to do). And value minded "Dad", who just dropped the cost of a KIA Rio on a vacation is gonna make damn sure they see it all.

 

[Gatorboy]

I understand this, but Universal is winning in absolute growth, too.

Growth since 2009:
Disney: 6.5 million
Universal: 8.2 million

Disney's goal of getting its other three parks up to MK levels of attendance is admirable but the trends show that Universal's existing two parks could get there first and for less capital investment.

I wonder if the lack of drop in Hollywood Studios' attendance means its demand is inelastic and less subject to drop or growth relative to Universal's properties. I'm eager to see next year's numbers. I suspect a lot of Disney's attendance is driven by nostalgia. I know that's part of the equation for me.

Further, I am arguing that a 3rd Universal gate would accelerate Universal's growth beyond its current track to where Universal and Disney are routinely swapping spots in the 2nd-7th most popular parks in Orlando. This would be good news for park-goers.

Universal is trying to become a weekly destination like WDW.

They are trying to change this WDW vacationers mindset from

"Going to WDW for a week, will spend a day or two at Universal"

to

"Last year we spent a week at WDW, this year we are doing a week at Uni"

That would be a major shift in spending dollars in UNI's favor.

Good luck finding something to do for an entire week at Uni, they're not quite there yet. 2 days for parks, 1 day Ci

 

[gmajew]

Just priced for the sake of pricing the cost for a 7 day trip to Orlando with 4 days with park hoppers at WDW and 2 Day with Park hopper at Universal. The cost for the theme park tickets WDW 1,556 Universal 869. Then through travelocity I priced hotels I can get a good moderate hotel for 125 -175 night. Depending on what I am looking for. WDW All Star is 125 night. Sheraton 154 night average. So this trip with hotel at 125 would cost $3,300 for the week. That is a 7 night trip that is actually not to bad plus gas to drive to the destination. Food you can add anyway you want but the price is what you choose on that one... You can get grocery and do it very very cheap... which most do for most of the stay.... Now I would skip the park hoppers and save some money if I was on a budget but for a week vacation to a theme park this is really not that bad! And the sad thing all those that say universal is so much for two days!

Now is this still a lot of money heck ya but it is roughly 7% of a family income if they are making 55K a year.... Now as we all know a family making just 55K a year with 2 kids more then likely will not be going on this trip every year and more then likely would never ever stay for 6 days in the parks... but it is the bare bones cost for the trip. for a week stay in Orlando if you want 4 days in WDW and 2 in Universal.