On layoffs, very bad attendance, and Iger's legacy being one of disgrace

[tirian]

I agree...the willow dress will be a fond memory of IP Bob forever

“Wear this...you must...highlights your face lift...it will”

The two suns of Tattooine.

Wrong planet.

The two Death Stars.

 

[Mouse Trap]

I guess it is important to ask you, when exactly do you think unemployment will recover to levels where people aren't scared ****less about their jobs (and consider a vacation again)? I suppose, looking at your post, you believe that unemployment will drop back below 3% within a year. Others are not sure that 18 months will be enough.

I'm not making predictions here about unemployment, etc.

I'm telling you facts that you can look up yourself in documents submitted to the SEC.

 

[Tha Realest]

Just wanted to draw attention to this gold nugget.

Yes, what's the story here??

 

[Mouse Trap]

I didn’t even catch that line. In context, I suspect he’s using it as a figure of speech. Right now, the company says Disney+ won’t be profitable until 2023, and analysts claim the overall company won’t be profitable until 2025 or even 2028. Maybe he’s alluding to the fact they’re living off debt right now.

I agree with you that they’re not going out of business any time soon. But the bloat will have to be cut.

What analysts are saying the overall company won't be profitable until 2025 or 2028? I haven't seen such thing and would love to read -- I typically stay on top of these sorts of things so surprised I missed such bold calls.

 

[CastAStone]

I respect a lot of the people and their insights on this thread, but the teetering on bankruptcy thing is what's losing me.

Disney's financials are public. They've raised a ton of cash, enough cash to last over a year with virtually no revenue coming in and longer with revenue. Each debt raise they did was filled quite quickly... they've had no issues or resistance raising the cash they've needed. All at quite manageable terms. If they were to raise another $10B+ it looks like they'd have minimal issue doing so.

What am I missing here?

Nothing. You're missing nothing. They are not going bankrupt. Wall Street expects them to lose $0.61/share, or $1.1bn in Q3. That would reflect them being able to keep the lights on for many years.

The Walt Disney Company (DIS) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts - Yahoo Finance

See The Walt Disney Company (DIS) stock analyst estimates, including earnings and revenue, EPS, upgrades and downgrades.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[CastAStone]

I didn’t even catch that line. In context, I suspect he’s using it as a figure of speech. Right now, the company says Disney+ won’t be profitable until 2023, and analysts claim the overall company won’t be profitable until 2025 or even 2028. Maybe he’s alluding to the fact they’re living off debt right now.

I agree with you that they’re not going out of business any time soon. But the bloat will have to be cut.

The consensus projection of FY2021 earnings is over $5bn in profit.

 

[Tha Realest]

Spoiler: Yoda Dress

Oh I recall the dress. The quote was "bury some search engine leads," which seems it was meant to cover over a nefarious story/rumor, rather than "buy some search engine leads" which makes a lot more sense - using wife as a billboard.

 

[Kingoglow]

I'm not making predictions here about unemployment, etc.

I'm telling you facts that you can look up yourself in documents submitted to the SEC.

I totally get what you're saying about reserve. What we are speculating about is how long will their cash last if nationwide unemployment restricts vacation travel longer than Disney's cash burn.

But no body knows. Whether or not it is correct to say teetering on bankruptcy doesn't matter much in the scope of what is being discussed.

 

[Mouse Trap]

I totally get what you're saying about reserve. What we are speculating about is how long will their cash last if nationwide unemployment restricts vacation travel longer than Disney's cash burn.

But no body knows. Whether or not it is correct to say teetering on bankruptcy doesn't matter much in the scope of what is being discussed.

Agreed, who knows. But it's been mentioned on this thread several times that Disney has no "rainy day fund" and they certainly do. Just because it doesn't look the same way as it does for average America doesn't mean it's nonexistent.

 

[esskay]

Can you speculate on why attendance is so low? Anecdotally I know of four separate parties who cancelled trips due to the one park per day limit and the reservation system.

Expecting people to pay thousands and only get into the parks guaranteed for 3 days of their trip is lunacy. If they want people in the parks, OPEN the parks and resorts. This is not Ebola.

I'm simply not convinced the low attendance is due to covid. I've seen too many packed with people places.

It's absolutely down to Corona. There are no international arrivals. That's a huge majority of their guests.

Then the majority who are avoiding Flordia right now from within the US are doing so. The only people in the parks right now are locals and those happy to take a risk with Covid.

It's as simple as that really.

 

[PhotoDave219]

You're back?!

It’s just a rumor. Don’t tell anyone.

 

[Nubs70]

Nothing. You're missing nothing. They are not going bankrupt. Wall Street expects them to lose $0.61/share, or $1.1bn in Q3. That would reflect them being able to keep the lights on for many years.

The Walt Disney Company (DIS) Analyst Ratings, Estimates & Forecasts - Yahoo Finance

See The Walt Disney Company (DIS) stock analyst estimates, including earnings and revenue, EPS, upgrades and downgrades.

finance.yahoo.com

A $1.1B quarterly loss means they will burn through the $6B bond offering they completed at the Covid outset in under 18 months.

 

[CastAStone]

Agreed, who knows. But it's been mentioned on this thread several times that Disney has no "rainy day fund" and they certainly do. Just because it doesn't look the same way as it does for average American doesn't mean it's nonexistent.

Not to mention the potential rainy day funds from selling local ABC affiliates, selling their stake in A&E Networks, selling some secondary film studios, etc.

 

[CastAStone]

A $1.1B quarterly loss means they will burn through the $6B bond offering they completed at the Covid outset in under 18 months.

Correct. Then they would have to tap into the $11bn they raised in May or some of the other $80bn+ in non-leveraged equity that they have.

 

[RaiseTheShields]

Spoiler: Yoda Dress

Wow that is astounding. Not in a good way.

 

[Dan Deesnee]

I respect a lot of the people and their insights on this thread, but the teetering on bankruptcy thing is what's losing me.

Disney's financials are public. They've raised a ton of cash, enough cash to last over a year with virtually no revenue coming in and longer with revenue. Each debt raise they did was filled quite quickly... they've had no issues or resistance raising the cash they've needed. All at quite manageable terms. If they were to raise another $10B+ it looks like they'd have minimal issue doing so.

What am I missing here?

Anyone worried about bankruptcy just read this. And if you want more info research how financing works at major corporations and how they raise cash, etc. It's a complex system. Disney is not even remotely close to going bankrupt nor would they sell the parks to another company. As Mouse Trap says, they can raise another $10B in a heartbeat, probably $20B+ or more.

We haven't even discussed the possibility of a government bailout yet. If things to get truly dire for the travel and entertainment industry, it might be coming (main reason would be to keep the thousands and thousands of people who rely on it employed).

 

[RaiseTheShields]

So what’s the timeline on layoffs?

 

[Lilofan]

Anyone worried about bankruptcy just read this. And if you want more info research how financing works at major corporations and how they raise cash, etc. It's a complex system. Disney is not even remotely close to going bankrupt nor would they sell the parks to another company. As Mouse Trap says, they can raise another $10B in a heartbeat, probably $20B+ or more.

We haven't even discussed the possibility of a government bailout yet. If things to get truly dire for the travel and entertainment industry, it might be coming (main reason would be to keep the thousands and thousands of people who rely on it employed).

A bailout on leisure industry probably won't happen. Leisure is the least of peoples concerns when they lose their jobs and eventually their homes.

 

[Lirael]

I don't think there's a risk of too much layoffs when compared to Universal, because of CP (and it's cousin ICP). Disney can -and has- simply not restore and hire CPs for a while and only use actual effective CMs while this is ongoing. Because CP was a large number of the CMs working, that should give them a reprieve and not feel like firing tons of CMs is necessary since they've already "fired" by means of not renewing the CP.

Universal didn`t have that though, so i see that suffering more

 

[Lilofan]

I don't think there's a risk of too much layoffs when compared to Universal, because of CP (and it's cousin ICP). Disney can -and has- simply not restore and hire CPs for a while and only use actual effective CMs while this is ongoing. Because CP was a large number of the CMs working, that should give them a reprieve and not feel like firing tons of CMs is necessary since they've already "fired" by means of not renewing the CP.

Universal didn`t have that though, so i see that suffering more

I think you are in for a surprise. Corporate "restructuring" is brutal.