On layoffs, very bad attendance, and Iger's legacy being one of disgrace

[Sirwalterraleigh]

That's very much an American mentality. Visitors at the Tokyo parks have worn masks for decades, including during summer, without complaining.

Because of pollution...same as china

That’s kinda an important detail.

 

[tirian]

It's not just discount the resorts under the current conditions prices in the parks are outrageous --$4 bucks for water, $5.75 for a Mickey bar, 6 bucks for a pretzel, parking fees at the resorts the list goes on and on

OKW and SS are over 700 a night for a studio. They would drop the price if they wanted people there. They don’t. As I said in another thread, if your willing to pay those prices they will take you in. Most wont and I think for now as they figure out what the next move is, they are fine with it.

Disney won’t undercut themselves. They won’t discount because they would be admitting to a less of a experience and they can’t do that. Closest you get to that is with free dining or a occasional room discount to get to capacity. Can you imagine them saying come down here for a hundred bucks a night with 50 dollar tickets to get in? Won’t ever happen. That would destroy their brand.

The average salary in my office is probably $250k or more. Out of about 30 people, I’m the only one who sees value in visiting Disney parks. The general office consensus says it’s overpriced, with noticeably poorer quality over the last few years. The major complaint about FP+ and the DDP: “I work hard every day. Why would I want to go on a vacation that requires even more scheduling?”

Non-fans absolutely notice the lack of night parades, the price-gouged food and beverage, and the themed Hampton Inns priced like Ritz-Carltons. SWGE and Pandora don’t make up for that.

Chapek has a lot to fix from Iger’s regime, yet Chapek himself led the years of P&R price gouging as they pursued a high-end clientele that didn’t consider the resorts or parks to be worth the hassle.

The silver lining is that the Covid closures allow the company to reset.

 

[Piebald]

I used to be a CM many moons ago and live in Orlando. I've gone 2x to the parks to just walk around and it has been depressing. It's not crowded at all, people look miserable and I cannot imagine they're able to cover the operating expenses.

I didnt see a lot of people with bags of merch, mostly just people running around trying to ride everything and I imagine not being there nearly as long as they normally would. I know it's hot, and I typically would never go in the summer, but I dont really see that improving even when it "cools down".

I cannot imagine working in hospitality right now. I'd be on pins and needles. Sleepless nights. Just saw a LinkedIn post about someone who works for Disney talking about how the unemployment benefits are done and they havent received a call back (forgot his title but it was an office job).

I truly think 2021 will suck more than 2020, albeit for different reasons.

 

[Jon81uk]

Because of pollution...same as china

That’s kinda an important detail.

and also SARS. It was the combination of pollution issues with the SARS outbreak a few years ago that drove mask wearing.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Stock market is not acting that way

The stock market is like a drunken child. Never any rhyme or reason to the direction it goes.

 

[Nubs70]

I saw total retraction is expected to be 34-36% when announced tomorrow.

And since “analysts” are doing the predictions...it’s probably more like 45%

I'm in the pulp and paper industry which is typically more resistant than average. But if you are in the copy paper market, its a bloodbath.

The equipment suppliers are reporting 40% drops as CAPEX is being slashed. So i surmise your 45% projection is not far off.

 

[crawale]

As long as the attraction is operating, being able to ride everything isn't a problem -- except for RotR. Generally you can ride things multiple times - all thanks (?) to the current low attendance.

I didn't think they had opened the Beach Club yet and had delayed it indefinitely (The DVC there is, but I believe their pool is open).

Even so, I've gone down in July and am going down again in August, but don't see the value in paying the premium for Disney Hotels at their current prices given the current state of things. I'll gladly spend money in the parks on food and "things" but then I'll be going to restaurants outside the parks for dinner if the parks are closing at 6-7p.

I would guarentee that DVC guests go for Stormalong Bay not the quiet pool.

 

[FullSailDan]

Because of pollution...same as china

That’s kinda an important detail.

uh... no. Not at all. While pollution isn't awesome in Tokyo, it's nowhere near the levels in China or India. In fact, their air quality is ranked just behind that of the US, about middle of the road globally.


People in Japan wear masks because its common courtesy there to protect others from your germs. It's a society that is obsessed with not being a nuisance or burden. While not perfect by any stretch of the means, we could do with taking a few notes out of their book right now.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Stock market is not acting that way

The stock market is like a drunken child. Never any rhyme or reason to the direction it goes.

The Fed bought $3,700,000,000,000 worth of securities and junk bonds, while setting interest rates to zero in the last five months.

In that environment...the only way to speculate and make money is in stocks and bonds.

The stock market was rigged - intentionally - at the covid outbreak. I’m not even saying that’s a “bad” thing...just that it’s a reality.

The stock market has ZERO reflection on whether individuals have the money to travel and support Disney parks. It never did much...but now it’s not even debatable.

Who’s living in a 2 story colonial saying “well, my xerox, ibm and Kodak are up $5 a share this year, kids...pack your bags - we’re going to Disney world!!!”

Does that work?

 

[deeevo]

That's very much an American mentality. Visitors at the Tokyo parks have worn masks for decades, including during summer, without complaining.

People in Japan wear face masks anytime they feel like they are sick. They do not wear them every time they go to a theme park at least up until Covid. If I ever felt sick I was never going to go walk around MK but people in Japan do or did with a mask.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

uh... no. Not at all. While pollution isn't awesome in Tokyo, it's nowhere near the levels in China or India. In fact, their air quality is ranked just behind that of the US, about middle of the road globally.


People in Japan wear masks because its common courtesy there to protect others from your germs. It's a society that is obsessed with not being a nuisance or burden. While not perfect by any stretch of the means, we could do with taking a few notes out of their book right now.

It was in the rebuilt industrial japan...it’s not that much of an issue now - but the seeds of that kind of personal hygiene is much more ingrained in the Asian countries than we ever adopted here.

 

[SamusAranX]

I believe we are already in that situation. No one here would pay rack rate for a room. Since Disney has pulled all non-AP discounts, there is no way to justify those resort prices. They are charging $180.00 per night night for POP in the middle of this mess. That is not a demand driven price; that is just hubris.

If they want the numbers, they will have to discount the resorts. There is still perceived value in the price of a ticket; especially with the lower crowd levels. But no one from out of state, till risk flying down to Orlando to stay at POP at $180 per night. Drop Deluxe room prices to under $300 per night, moderates under $200 and POP under $100, you will see attendance rise.

this. We’re going next month with blackout dates being lifted on the silver pass; I received an email saying there were special Florida resident rates for resorts, so seeing as I never have stayed at a resort before (living near Tampa and all) I looked. Still wanted close to 200 a night for the lowest resorts. No thanks. Still not worth it to me.

 

[Mouse Trap]

I respect a lot of the people and their insights on this thread, but the teetering on bankruptcy thing is what's losing me.

Disney's financials are public. They've raised a ton of cash, enough cash to last over a year with virtually no revenue coming in and longer with revenue. Each debt raise they did was filled quite quickly... they've had no issues or resistance raising the cash they've needed. All at quite manageable terms. If they were to raise another $10B+ it looks like they'd have minimal issue doing so.

What am I missing here?

 

[tirian]

And that brings me to Bob Iger. Mr. Chairman. Mr. Gotta Put Yoda on His Wife's Dress to Bury Some Search Engine Leads. That guy.

Just wanted to draw attention to this gold nugget.

 

[Dan Deesnee]

The stock market is like a drunken child. Never any rhyme or reason to the direction it goes.

I work in the stock market industry. The reasons are there, but they are usually either something the average person has little to no knowledge/understanding of, doesn't think about, or isn't thinking about yet.

Fed money printing and asset purchases, amateur Robinhood "investors", an expected quick economic recovery along with a handful of major stocks like Amazon have pumped the market to where it is now.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Just wanted to draw attention to this gold nugget.

I agree...the willow dress will be a fond memory of IP Bob forever

“Wear this...you must...highlights your face lift...it will”

 

[Kingoglow]

I respect a lot of the people and their insights on this thread, but the teetering on bankruptcy thing is what's losing me.

Disney's financials are public. They've raised a ton of cash, enough cash to last over a year with virtually no revenue coming in and longer with revenue. Each debt raise they did was filled quite quickly... they've had no issues or resistance raising the cash they've needed. All at quite respectful terms. If they were to raise another $10B+ it looks like they'd have minimal issue doing so.

What am I missing here?

I guess it is important to ask you, when exactly do you think unemployment will recover to levels where people aren't scared less about their jobs (and consider a vacation again)? I suppose, looking at your post, you believe that unemployment will drop back below 3% within a year. Others are not sure that 18 months will be enough.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I work in the stock market industry. The reasons are there, but they are usually either something the average person has little to no knowledge/understanding of, doesn't think about, or isn't thinking about yet.

Fed money printing and asset purchases, amateur Robinhood "investors", an expected quick economic recovery along with a handful of major stocks like Amazon have pumped the market to where it is now.

So hopped up on steroids...is what you’re saying?

Not just the stock markets...real estate prices are raging because of “low interest rates”...

That’s great...but the price increases are blowing a bubble faster than normal in insanity.

...that usually works out well

 

[tirian]

I respect a lot of the people and their insights on this thread, but the teetering on bankruptcy thing is what's losing me.

Disney's financials are public. They've raised a ton of cash, enough cash to last over a year with virtually no revenue coming in and longer with revenue. Each debt raise they did was filled quite quickly... they've had no issues or resistance raising the cash they've needed. All at quite respectful terms. If they were to raise another $10B+ it looks like they'd see minimal resistance.

What am I missing here?

I didn’t even catch that line. In context, I suspect he’s using it as a figure of speech. Right now, the company says Disney+ won’t be profitable until 2023, and analysts claim the overall company won’t be profitable until 2025 or even 2028. Maybe he’s alluding to the fact they’re living off debt right now.

I agree with you that they’re not going out of business any time soon. But the bloat will have to be cut.

 

[Sir_Cliff]

The average salary in my office is probably $250k or more. Out of about 30 people, I’m the only one who sees value in visiting Disney parks. The general office consensus says it’s overpriced, with noticeably poorer quality over the last few years. The major complaint about FP+ and the DDP: “I work hard every day. Why would I want to go on a vacation that requires even more scheduling?”

I feel exactly the same way. I enjoyed my last trip overall, but have honestly not been in a hurry to go back because I felt price gouged every step of the way and hate the amount of planning visiting the parks now involves. And heaven help you if waking up at 6 or 7am everyday and marching onto crowded busses doesn't sound like much of a vacation to you!

I really hope they do use this opportunity to reset. It seems that pre-COVID there were enough devotees with the money to navigate through this and enjoy it as well as others with even more money willing to pay in order to avoid all the annoyances of a WDW vacation. I have my doubts that will be the case going forward and, going back to something mentioned previously, they may need to start looking at charging more reasonable rates at least for their hotels if they want to attract people back who they have alienated.