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On layoffs, very bad attendance, and Iger's legacy being one of disgrace

monothingie

Hooray! People Are Paying Attention To Me!
Premium Member
1. MK and MK resorts open only (most dire)

They won’t /can’t reclose DVC resorts. And the only MK resort open for cash reservations right now is the CR. Poly and GF cash reservations are closed through the summer and early fall.

3. Making Epcot an afternoon only park

epcot is open 11-9 daily. 12-9?
 

MansionButler84

Well-Known Member
Bankruptcy talk is just silly, but more on-topic, more apparent trimming will occur in P&R. The biggest issue are the travel advisories. When Disney announced it was reopening, all of these 2-week quarantines were not widespread. Governors have successfully spooked their residents. With that said, these quarantines are of questionable importance and will be rendered meaningless by the holidays. People will skip Disney World, but they won’t skip a road trip to see grandma for Christmas.

I typically have pretty good knowledge of changes in P&R but don’t pretend to know what’s happening at the company-level. What I can say, however, based upon contacts with friends from my Yale days, is that we certainly are looking at a vaccine widely available during the first 3 months of 2021. Will people get it?

They will not re-close DVCs. They will continue to push off reopening cash resorts. And to limit impact on vacationers, yes, they are considered staggered closures. The big question is—how many days should each park open to prevent over-crowding? 4 to 7 is the range. I had alluded to both a couple weeks back.
 
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duder

Active Member
So I was going to make a thread about this, but I'll just put it here. There are several options being discussed with a decision due soon.

1. MK and MK resorts open only (most dire)
2. Rotating AK and DHS days open
3. Making Epcot an afternoon only park
4. Temporarily shutting down Future World entirely

I don't know of any plans at the moment to close all parks two days a week. It could be true, I just haven't heard that until this thread.


Any best guess on when this shift in schedule will take place? We are due there 8/11-8/17
 

Mouse Trap

Well-Known Member
A bailout on leisure industry probably won't happen. Leisure is the least of peoples concerns when they lose their jobs and eventually their homes.

I'm not saying it will/won't happen, but you forget the sitting president of the USA owns quite an expansive (and hurting) hotel chain.

Still unlikely to happen, but it could!
 

Dan Deesnee

Well-Known Member
So hopped up on steroids...is what you’re saying?

Not just the stock markets...real estate prices are raging because of “low interest rates”...

That’s great...but the price increases are blowing a bubble faster than normal in insanity.

...that usually works out well 🙄

Haha yep you are right. Question is though, when do these bubbles finally burst? Have some already popped (likely). Due to the industry I'm in I've heard analysts, heads of hedge funds, C-suite members, etc. talk about the impending bubble-pop since 2015, at least.

And yet...here we stand. On shaky ground no doubt, but the resiliency of the markets (stocks, housing, banking, etc.) have sustained all of the "inflating" of the bubbles.

I don't think Disney will be affected by this throughout all of 2021. The jobs market is a vacuum, permanently lost jobs will be moved to other companies / industries. People will travel in droves again sooner than most people think. Main reason being is that although some people are scared out of their minds the hundreds of different people I speak with weekly (who are all over the country) due to my job are mostly not worried anymore about Covid. It comes up on literally every conference call. They've accepted they'll likely get it and will survive with ease. Once all of the things making travel right now a hassle and less of a value (free breakfast at hotels cancelled, many closed their pools, mandatory state quarantines, etc. etc.) travel will resume quickly, I predict. And I expect these restrictions, etc. to be mostly lifted by spring 2021 at the latest.
 

Dan Deesnee

Well-Known Member
A bailout on leisure industry probably won't happen. Leisure is the least of peoples concerns when they lose their jobs and eventually their homes.

You might want to look at it a different way. Leisure industry tanks, people lose jobs and homes (as you said). Scenario 2 - leisure industry gets bailed out, people don't lose jobs and don't lose homes.

The leisure industry health is a major concern for the hundreds of thousands (if not millions) employed within it. Restaurants, theme parks, hotels, cleaning staff, outdoor maintenance, etc. A major bailout could save a large quantity of jobs that would otherwise be lost.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
Haha yep you are right. Question is though, when do these bubbles finally burst? Have some already popped (likely). Due to the industry I'm in I've heard analysts, heads of hedge funds, C-suite members, etc. talk about the impending bubble-pop since 2015, at least.

And yet...here we stand. On shaky ground no doubt, but the resiliency of the markets (stocks, housing, banking, etc.) have sustained all of the "inflating" of the bubbles.

I don't think Disney will be affected by this throughout all of 2021. The jobs market is a vacuum, permanently lost jobs will be moved to other companies / industries. People will travel in droves again sooner than most people think. Main reason being is that although some people are scared out of their minds the hundreds of different people I speak with weekly (who are all over the country) due to my job are mostly not worried anymore about Covid. It comes up on literally every conference call. They've accepted they'll likely get it and will survive with ease. Once all of the things making travel right now a hassle and less of a value (free breakfast at hotels cancelled, many closed their pools, mandatory state quarantines, etc. etc.) travel will resume quickly, I predict. And I expect these restrictions, etc. to be mostly lifted by spring 2021 at the latest.
Resiliency in housing? How's that going to fare when families lose their jobs and eventually losing their homes?
 

rle4lunch

Well-Known Member
The average salary in my office is probably $250k or more. Out of about 30 people, I’m the only one who sees value in visiting Disney parks. The general office consensus says it’s overpriced, with noticeably poorer quality from when we were kids. The major complaint about FP+ and the DDP: “I work hard every day. Why would I want to go on a vacation that requires even more scheduling?”

Non-fans absolutely notice the lack of night parades, the price-gouged food and beverage, and the themed Hampton Inns priced like Ritz-Carltons.

Chapek has a lot to fix from Iger’s regime, yet Chapek himself led the years of P&R price gouging as they pursued a high-end clientele that didn’t consider the resorts or parks to be worth the hassle.

The silver lining is that the Covid closures allow the company to reset.


For the past 10 years, my wife and I have consistently seen a decline in ROI on visits. Between the rising costs, rising crowd levels, FP+ hostage situation, effectively nullifying your Park HOPPER option, lack of new offerings, and a general malaise (read: don't give a crap) attitude of management at both US parks to properly update and fix rides, our interest (lifelong fans and goers) started to wane.

Three things have happened in the past decade that have kept us going. 1. Military Salute Tickets. Literally 40-50% off gate price. 2. Cheap DVC contracts. Offsetting the continual increase of resort prices, we ended up starting to stay at SoG, but the "magic" there just isn't the same. Insert DVC contracts. Resale worked out well along with a very minimal blue card contract for SSR. 3. KIDS. which also was in the decision making process for the DVC purchase. For the next decade and a half, we'll have kids interested in going.

Still, sometimes it's hard to swallow some of the crap Disney continually tries to pull. They've had YEARS of record profits that could've been put into the parks. Their hasty inclusions of NFL and RoL and Tron and others, feel like they were bullied into building something, not because they wanted to.

Sure, they've had some winners in the past 10 years, but it's not like they enjoy spending money to please the crowds. They think they can live off of the nostalgia teat for 50 years and get away with it, all the while attractions continue to crumble and turn stale.

And don't get me wrong, I'm a capitalist thru and thru, but they've really screwed the pooch, and it's their own fault.

Disney will survive this. They'll take their guvment handout just like the rest of them, they'll continue to bow to ridiculous union demands, and they'll continue to build rides for twice as much as they need to spend on them.

I'm not worried about their future. I'm worried about my ROI.
 
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Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
Haha yep you are right. Question is though, when do these bubbles finally burst? Have some already popped (likely). Due to the industry I'm in I've heard analysts, heads of hedge funds, C-suite members, etc. talk about the impending bubble-pop since 2015, at least.

And yet...here we stand. On shaky ground no doubt, but the resiliency of the markets (stocks, housing, banking, etc.) have sustained all of the "inflating" of the bubbles.

I don't think Disney will be affected by this throughout all of 2021. The jobs market is a vacuum, permanently lost jobs will be moved to other companies / industries. People will travel in droves again sooner than most people think. Main reason being is that although some people are scared out of their minds the hundreds of different people I speak with weekly (who are all over the country) due to my job are mostly not worried anymore about Covid. It comes up on literally every conference call. They've accepted they'll likely get it and will survive with ease. Once all of the things making travel right now a hassle and less of a value (free breakfast at hotels cancelled, many closed their pools, mandatory state quarantines, etc. etc.) travel will resume quickly, I predict. And I expect these restrictions, etc. to be mostly lifted by spring 2021 at the latest.
I thought the next decline would be 2017...for a number of fairly obvious reasons...but it still rolls.

But eventually the magician runs out of tricks.

Governments can print money and fat cats can “earn” without ever having the money...

...but consumer products have to be bought by normal people. The world is “flat” and you get to the edge at some point and have to turn around.
 

Sir_Cliff

Well-Known Member
With that said, these quarantines are of questionable importance and will be rendered meaningless by the holidays. People will skip Disney World, but they won’t skip a road trip to see grandma for Christmas.
I'm not sure road trips across the United States to visit elderly relatives are what's going to bring the travel industry back if things don't significantly change before Christmas.
 

MickeyMind

Active Member
Honestly they did this to themselves, they stopped annual pass sales so those of us locals who wanted to go cant go in unless we buy a 3 day ticket, which lets face it, is NOT happening, on top of that we have to make a reservation and cant park hop. They set all these restrictions in place and it ends up being harder for a local to even try to get in unless we already had an annual pass.

Universal opened up and immediately gave new passholders a 3 month extension if they bought passes.. I ended up buying 4 of them and have gone to universal multiple times a week just to get my theme park fix. I just went this past saturday, mon and tuesday. I go when I want, I park hop, ride what I want, eat what I want and leave.. I wish I could do that at disney, but I cant even buy a pass so until they open open up annual passholder sales and remove the park hopping restriction, I will not be going back to Disney.

Disney needs to follow in Universal's footsteps here. Give passholders an extension, sanitize before getting on every ride, remove that park pass reservation bulls**** and let people come and go as they please.

While we're at it, let people back into the hotels that are open who want to grab something to eat and soak in the ambiance. Their lots are not anywhere near full, I would love to park at the contemporary or grand floridian and grab something to eat while taking a walk around. Temperature check me before going in, thats fine, do whatever you need to do, but open these things back up and give people some freedom here. Otherwise we are just going to think its not worth it and hop on over to universal.
 

Dan Deesnee

Well-Known Member
Resiliency in housing? How's that going to fare when families lose their jobs and eventually losing their homes?

It won't have much of an effect on the housing market as a whole or prices. Housing inventories remain near historic lows. Their is simply not enough supply of homes so prices will remain high.

Remember that these evictions, etc. are mostly going to effect lower income workers losing their job at restaurants, bars, etc. They will get evicted but many of them are renters, not home owners. When someone gets evicted out of their apartment it doesn't increase the supply of homes available.

We need a massive, massive surge in available homes in order to collapse the housing market. Right now the inventory is sitting at 4.7, during the last housing market crash inventory levels were 10-12+. This means for the same inventory levels that pushed home prices significantly down we need effectively double or more homes on the market than we have right now. Not likely to happen anytime soon but who knows.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
It won't have much of an effect on the housing market as a whole or prices. Housing inventories remain near historic lows. Their is simply not enough supply of homes so prices will remain high.

Remember that these evictions, etc. are mostly going to effect lower income workers losing their job at restaurants, bars, etc. They will get evicted but many of them are renters, not home owners. When someone gets evicted out of their apartment it doesn't increase the supply of homes available.

We need a massive, massive surge in available homes in order to collapse the housing market. Right now the inventory is sitting at 4.7, during the last housing market crash inventory levels were 10-12+. This means for the same inventory levels that pushed home prices significantly down we need effectively double or more homes on the market than we have right now. Not likely to happen anytime soon but who knows.
That's true. I have also seen house flippers make a good living. In a matter of months after they buy homes, the house flippers have their army of workers come in and rehab and the same home goes back on the market for a much higher asking price a few months later.
 

tirian

Well-Known Member
What analysts are saying the overall company won't be profitable until 2025 or 2028? I haven't seen such thing and would love to read -- I typically stay on top of these sorts of things so surprised I missed such bold calls.
Nothing. You're missing nothing. They are not going bankrupt. Wall Street expects them to lose $0.61/share, or $1.1bn in Q3. That would reflect them being able to keep the lights on for many years.


Now you might’ve misunderstood me. I’m personally talking about the Disney+ investment and its overall affect on the company. Disney is expected to turn a massive profit by 2025, 2028 at the latest. This is good news, not a “sky-is-falling” scenario.

The OP might’ve been referencing the concerns about P&R during Covid, and the resulting debt. I won’t try to answer for him though.
 

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