On layoffs, very bad attendance, and Iger's legacy being one of disgrace

[deWild]

I've been discussing this with my wife. We're predicting Orlando becomes the next Detroit, due to it being a reasonably high-crime city that's married to a single industry that's about to collapse.

The city of Detroit has slowly clawed its way out of the destitute state it once was. I highly doubt Orlando will fall into the state of despair that Detroit did in the 80s. Visit Detroit and you’ll see that it’s much more vibrant in the immediate downtown area than it was even 5-6 years ago.

Not saying there still isn’t blight around the edges of the city, but Detroit is much better off than it once was.

 

[Dan Deesnee]

That's true. I have also seen house flippers make a good living. In a matter of months after they buy homes, the house flippers have their army of workers come in and rehab and the same home goes back on the market for a much higher asking price a few months later.

Yep and the exact reason they are able to do that is because inventories are so low. Where you WILL see a big crash is likely in the commercial real estate space. Corporations will be (already are) ditching their excess space / buildings in droves.

I'm actually part of an investment group and we're looking at picking up former corporate building space at a discount and converting it to apartments / condos.

 

[M:SpilotISTC12]

It won't have much of an effect on the housing market as a whole or prices. Housing inventories remain near historic lows. Their is simply not enough supply of homes so prices will remain high.

Remember that these evictions, etc. are mostly going to effect lower income workers losing their job at restaurants, bars, etc. They will get evicted but many of them are renters, not home owners. When someone gets evicted out of their apartment it doesn't increase the supply of homes available.

We need a massive, massive surge in available homes in order to collapse the housing market. Right now the inventory is sitting at 4.7, during the last housing market crash inventory levels were 10-12+. This means for the same inventory levels that pushed home prices significantly down we need effectively double or more homes on the market than we have right now. Not likely to happen anytime soon but who knows.

I live in NJ and am also a real estate agent. Houses last a couple days max here. With the amount of people working from home in NYC and Philadelphia, they realize they don't want to live in shoeboxes for outrageous rental prices. NJ is becoming a hot bed for city transplants. Pair that with low inventory and low interest rates, you've a recipe for a real estate boom. Now I can't speak for other major markets but I can assume the same thing is happening to suburbs around the country.

 

[tirian]

For the past 10 years, my wife and I have consistently seen a decline in ROI on visits. Between the rising costs, rising crowd levels, FP+ hostage situation, effectively nullifying your Park HOPPER option, lack of new offerings, and a general malaise (read: don't give a crap) attitude of management at both US parks to properly update and fix rides, our interest (lifelong fans and goers) started to wane.

Three things have happened in the past decade that have kept us going. 1. Military Salute Tickets. Literally 40-50% gate price. 2. Cheap DVC contracts. Offsetting the continual increase of resort prices, we ended up starting to stay at SoG, but the "magic" there just isn't the same. Insert DVC contracts. Resale worked out well along with a very minimal blue card contact for SSR. 3. KIDS. which also was in the decision making process for the DVC purchase. For the next decade and a half, we'll have kids interested in going.

Still, sometimes it's hard to swallow some of the crap Disney continually tries to pull. They've has YEARS of record profits that could've been put into the parks. Their hasty inclusions of NFL and RoL and Tron and others, feel like they were bullied into building something, not because they wanted to.

Sure, they've had some winners in the past 10 years, but it's not like they enjoy spending money to please the crowds. They think they can live off of the nostalgia teat for 50 years and get away with it, all the while attractions continue to crumble and turn stale.

And don't get me wrong, I'm a capitalist thru and thru, but they've really screwed the pooch, and it's they're own fault.

Disney will survive this. They'll take their guvment handout just like the rest of them, they'll continue to bow to ridiculous union demands, and they'll continue to build rides for twice as much as they need to spend on them.

I'm not worried about their future. I'm worried about my ROI.

I agree completely. For me, it’s about ROI, not the health of the company.

 

[Sonconato]

...... just when I thought I was out.

 

[MisterPenguin]

A question:

If Disney's financials are cratering such that there will be massive layoffs or sell-off of part of the company, then how can they afford to make all the 'woke' changes that is claimed to be coming since that will require huge outlays of money?

 

[WDW Pro]

Isn't Epcot almost that now, with daily hours being 11am-9pm?

It's not decided, but 11-7 has been discussed.

I respect a lot of the people and their insights on this thread, but the teetering on bankruptcy thing is what's losing me.

Disney's financials are public. They've raised a ton of cash, enough cash to last over a year with virtually no revenue coming in and longer with revenue. Each debt raise they did was filled quite quickly... they've had no issues or resistance raising the cash they've needed. All at quite manageable terms. If they were to raise another $10B+ it looks like they'd have minimal issue doing so.

What am I missing here?

You're missing the cascading effects that will occur if A) vaccines aren't successful in the next 12 months or B) the virus mutates. In those significantly possible scenarios (God help us), Disney could be forced into either crippling debt or selling significant assets. Additionally, if the film industry is unable to resume soon, Disney+ will quickly become a significant liability.

They won’t /can’t reclose DVC resorts. And the only MK resort open for cash reservations right now is the CR. Poly and GF cash reservations are closed through the summer and early fall.

epcot is open 11-9 daily. 12-9?

Remember I said that was the most dire situation, not an expected outcome. In that scenario where attendance continues to crater while the disease numbers and deaths rise greatly, they could potentially move DVC to WL to alleviate some issues.

Any best guess on when this shift in schedule will take place? We are due there 8/11-8/17

September/October

 

[durangojim]

While we're at it, let people back into the hotels that are open who want to grab something to eat and soak in the ambiance. Their lots are not anywhere near full, I would love to park at the contemporary or grand floridian and grab something to eat while taking a walk around. Temperature check me before going in, thats fine, do whatever you need to do, but open these things back up and give people some freedom here. Otherwise we are just going to think its not worth it and hop on over to universal.

Regarding the part about the hotels. We had no problem going to whatever hotel we wanted even if we didn't have dining reservations. We just told the guard at the shack that we wanted to eat there. He checked my ID and off we went. If you're taking Disney transportation they don't even check.

 

[dreday3]

It's not decided, but 11-7 has been discussed.



You're missing the cascading effects that will occur if A) vaccines aren't successful in the next 12 months or B) the virus mutates. In those significantly possible scenarios (God help us), Disney could be forced into either crippling debt or selling significant assets. Additionally, if the film industry is unable to resume soon, Disney+ will quickly become a significant liability.



Remember I said that was the most dire situation, not an expected outcome. In that scenario where attendance continues to crater while the disease numbers and deaths rise greatly, they could potentially move DVC to WL to alleviate some issues.



September/October

All I got is - it's very rare that a virus mutates to become more deadly

Carry on!

 

[Mouse Trap]

You're missing the cascading effects that will occur if A) vaccines aren't successful in the next 12 months or B) the virus mutates. In those significantly possible scenarios (God help us), Disney could be forced into either crippling debt or selling significant assets. Additionally, if the film industry is unable to resume soon, Disney+ will quickly become a significant liability.

Sure, all hypotheticals that could happen, but the statements made on this thread insinuate bankruptcy is imminent for Disney. "Teetering on bankruptcy" is not a term to describe a business that will kinda, sorta, maybe go bankrupt in a few years if _____ , _____ and ______ occur.

FYI -- The film industry has already resumed. A few notable Disney productions are shooting as we speak. Not to mention animation has still been humming along relatively unscathed all things considered.

 

[Dan Deesnee]

You're missing the cascading effects that will occur if A) vaccines aren't successful in the next 12 months or B) the virus mutates. In those significantly possible scenarios (God help us), Disney could be forced into either crippling debt or selling significant assets. Additionally, if the film industry is unable to resume soon, Disney+ will quickly become a significant liability.

Most viral mutations result in a weaker virus. Also they will assuredly have a vaccine within 12 months because their is too much money to be made and Corona virus's have been around for a long time. People don't seem to realize that our current society is unsustainable. The cascade you refer to would not just effect Disney but every industry in the country. The result? A greater depression that we willingly brought upon ourselves. To summarize, the cascade / depression won't happen so I don't view those as "significantly possible" but I respect your opinions.

Companies need to make money, these restrictions will start to disappear or be reduced in all industries before years end.

 

[ToTBellHop]

Sure, all hypotheticals that could happen, but the statements made on this thread insinuate bankruptcy is imminent for Disney. "Teetering on bankruptcy" is not a term to describe a business that will kinda, sorta, maybe go bankrupt in a few years if _____ , _____ and ______ occur.

FYI -- The film industry has already resumed. A few notable Disney productions are shooting as we speak. Not to mention animation has still been humming along relatively unscathed all things considered.

Yes, but they need theaters open with butts in seats.

 

[Moka]

This is a fairly interesting thread. For sure. While I'm not sure I completely follow the potential bankruptcy claims, I can definitely see the park hours cut, the 5 days a week, etc.

Crazy times for these theme parks.

 

[dreday3]

Yes, but they need theaters open with butts in seats.

I think the writing was on the wall for the movie industry before Covid.

Releasing straight to video on demand will be the future and everyone will still find a way to make money, rest-assured.

 

[Mouse Trap]

I think the writing was on the wall for the movie industry before Covid.

Releasing straight to video on demand will be the future and everyone will still find a way to make money, rest-assured.

PVOD is not the future unless you are willing to pay $59.99+ for each Marvel film (and the profitability numbers still don't line up with this price point in many cases). Indie films and lower budget productions will def find a more welcoming home on VOD, but you aren't going to see $150M budget films on PVOD regularly.

But I won't set this thread off topic for this particular discussion.

 

[Bob Harlem]

 

[Creathir]

A question:

If Disney's financials are cratering such that there will be massive layoffs or sell-off of part of the company, then how can they afford to make all the 'woke' changes that is claimed to be coming since that will require huge outlays of money?

Many companies view employees as if they are just a liability.

My former employer would lay off people almost annually just so the executives could make targets and get their annual bonuses.

If the priority is to address the ‘woke’ changes, either for mutual ethical reasons or the much more likely to capitalize on the perceived public relations benefits, they may view the CAPEX on those changes as worth it vs the liability of unneeded employees just standing around.

Not saying I agree with any of this, or agree it is what is happening, but I could see executives thinking like this.

 

[InnKpr]

I wonder what Miss Dolly would say to this post...

She couldn't argue it's accuracy.

Though at her age, hopefully she's staying safe and far away from all of this, which seems to be the case. We can't afford to have her get sick. She's a national treasure.

 

[CastAStone]

Holy Smokes:
SeaWorld expects second-quarter revenue of $18 million, down from $406 million last year

SeaWorld expects second-quarter revenue of $18 million, down from $406 million last year

SeaWorld Entertainment Inc. undefined gave a preliminary look at second-quarter results, saying revenue is expected to drop to $18 million from $406 million...

www.marketwatch.com

 

[MickeyMind]

Regarding the part about the hotels. We had no problem going to whatever hotel we wanted even if we didn't have dining reservations. We just told the guard at the shack that we wanted to eat there. He checked my ID and off we went. If you're taking Disney transportation they don't even check.

Really? what hotels have you tried? I thought they were being strict about who they let in?