OK, I'll Admit it...Disney Prices Are Out Of Control

[Tony the Tigger]

Considering breakfast was at at about 6:30 I made it just fine without one for breakfast... However a Churo for a snack at 9:30 would have been amazing

#thestruggleisntreal

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Gotta disagree just a bit here Sir, remember the parks are a small part of the portfolio. now of course there is going to be a bear market but Disney is built for long term.
The company is continuing it's box office domination, although I hate all these live action remakes, it's stock still has a relatively good strength line which means it's still outperforming almost 90% of the other stocks.

And when does it's on Disney + kick in?
It's not going to see crazy growth but for the next 10 years it's going to stay a strong blue chip. most analysis have it in the "buy" zone.


Why do you feel it's overextended?

totally agree with the highlighted but if someone has a solids asset allocation, Disney would definitely be the extra stock I picked up.

You have to look at where their revenues/profits come from.

Disney does not make “easy” profits. Google does...Facebook does. Hell, even Apple does/did with massive overcharging for their sweatshop products.

Disney does not. Movies are like 10% of their take...consumer products 15% and that’s not strong.

The majority is still tv - which is easy money but has been in decline for Disney for 10 years as tech and habits change. And now parks are 40ish.

Parks are always going to get crushed in a recession. That is an economic certainty. Disney is making money for its stock in the short term with its parks pricing. That isn’t a long game.

It simply does not have the muscle to go up indefinitely.

Again...longterm stability. Dow 30. Very impressive. But remember when Apple was $900 a share?

Yeah...that’s not Disney

 

[Shouldigo12]

The prices are the major issue for me, as well. In all other areas I'm more than willing to save up for it, but the crowds are too unpredictable for me right now. I can justify the cost of going and having a great time, but I cant justify going and dealing with a swamped park. Hopefully they can figure out a way to make the crowds a bit more manageable, or at least more predictable, by the time I'm financially able to go back.

 

[larryz]

Not the time to buy...

That goes for you too, Liz.

They are trading at $130 a share and that is already overextended. And the bull will turn bear at some point and we are overdue.

It will drop - a lot - as Iger runs the gate at the Dopey Parking lot and throws his ID And parking pass out the window as his Maserati screeches down the road in the direction of Malibu...
...Disney isn’t a “skies the limit” kinda stock. It’s always been pretty solid and stable and enjoyed impressive gains...but gets dropped into a hole when the greater picture gets grim. It’s all travel and entertainment, not essentials.

DIS is in historical split territory. I'd wait until (a) it splits, or (b) it drops back below $60.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

DIS is in historical split territory. I'd wait until (a) it splits, or (b) it drops back below $60.

I think the last split was like 97-98??

I don’t see another...it’s market cap wouldn’t support that many outstanding shares at a reasonable value...my opinion

 

[CAV]

Well the parks are so crowded its elbow to elbow so prices don't seem to matter that much. I think food quality in the parks has improved over the past 20 years or so.

Improved food quality? We used to view food as an attraction at WDW. It is something to be endured now. We rarely waste our money on table service anymore. It's the same food all over the "world" just with different names. For heaven's sake, at La Hacienda, they serve slim Jim's and try to pass them off as chorizo.

 

[CAV]

I feel the same way. At our peak, we were ooching up towards ~$15k a year, and then I suddenly stopped going (overcrowding). In hindsight I was a fool, but I sorta expected a serious exploratory reach-out from Disney as to why. Nope. Never happened. Apparently it does not matter if you spend $3k a year or $30k a year. Everyone gets the same bulk treatment and are all valued the same.

This of course can be viewed as good. ...unless of course you want my $15,000. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

I've said it before only to be ridiculed: Disney's business plan doesn't include repeat guests. As long as they have an endless supply of "one and done" guests, spending way more than they need to out of sheer ignorance, they will continue their ways.

 

[John park hopper]

I've said it before only to be ridiculed: Disney's business plan doesn't include repeat guests. As long as they have an endless supply of "one and done" guests, spending way more than they need to out of sheer ignorance, they will continue their ways.

Yup, many companies have rewards for repeat customers Holland America super deals for repeats, Hilton honors club, airline air miles. even my home owners Ins company has a $500 deal when buying a new car. Never have I gotten any discount for my vacations over the last almost 50 years going to WDW. WDW --we don't need no stinking repeat customers

 

[erasure fan1]

Never have I gotten any discount for my vacations over the last almost 50 years going to WDW. WDW --we don't need no stinking repeat customers

Yup, but I partially blame us chuckle heads who just keep going. Disney is pretty confident the repeat customers will show no matter what. So why offer anything to them? Myself, I bowed out about 4yrs ago but I'm sure Disney thinks I'm in the lowest minority.

 

[Bairstow]

I've said it before only to be ridiculed: Disney's business plan doesn't include repeat guests. As long as they have an endless supply of "one and done" guests, spending way more than they need to out of sheer ignorance, they will continue their ways.

I can understand your frustration with the price hikes but that's utterly absurd.
Just for starters, how do you explain the continued existence of the DVC?

 

[The_Jobu]

I feel ashamed, but I too am in the grip of Disney's neon claws. I just can't stay away from the 50th, I feel like I have to be there, just to soak in all the memories. That might be my last go, but I'll admit they pretty much got me unless they do something REALLY REALLY stupid.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Improved food quality? We used to view food as an attraction at WDW. It is something to be endured now. We rarely waste our money on table service anymore. It's the same food all over the "world" just with different names. For heaven's sake, at La Hacienda, they serve slim Jim's and try to pass them off as chorizo.

The food quality and value for the price is one of the main draws that created longterm loyalty in the Disney parks fanbase.

They’ve all but gutted it. Some of it is pretty bad...a lot of it is highly overpriced and repetitive

I've said it before only to be ridiculed: Disney's business plan doesn't include repeat guests. As long as they have an endless supply of "one and done" guests, spending way more than they need to out of sheer ignorance, they will continue their ways.

While it’s not what it was during the horrid, evil Eisner years that just “tortured” everyone...I wouldn’t say it’s completely gone.

Definitely less if a priority.

Yup, many companies have rewards for repeat customers Holland America super deals for repeats, Hilton honors club, airline air miles. even my home owners Ins company has a $500 deal when buying a new car. Never have I gotten any discount for my vacations over the last almost 50 years going to WDW. WDW --we don't need no stinking repeat customers

But they did at times

Magic kingdom club definitely was one.

But vacation club from 1992-2010ish was exactly that...a discount for loyalty.
It isn’t close anymore.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I feel ashamed, but I too am in the grip of Disney's neon claws. I just can't stay away from the 50th, I feel like I have to be there, just to soak in all the memories. That might be my last go, but I'll admit they pretty much got me unless they do something REALLY REALLY stupid.

It’s not gonna matter what year it is.

New stuff will be cool...but people expecting lots of stressing the year like 2000 will be disappointed. Unless we get a good new leadership group by then

 

[padlock]

When thinking long term, a healthy business needs a good mix of new and repeat customers.

For most products, it's considerably cheaper to retain an existing customer then to attract a new one. Also, repeat guests are often viewed as promoters, who will help market your product for you, whereas that's far less likely to be the case with the 'ones and dones', especially if those people are not happy with the perceived value of your product.

 

[eliza61nyc]

When thinking long term, a healthy business needs a good mix of new and repeat customers.

For most products, it's considerably cheaper to retain an existing customer then to attract a new one. Also, repeat guests are often viewed as promoters, who will help market your product for you, whereas that's far less likely to be the case with the 'ones and dones', especially if those people are not happy with the perceived value of your product.

And you are absolutely correct, and I know I'm beating a dead horse the difference is the repeat customer ARE still going. Just look at all the post here, a few folks even called it an addiction.
I think out of all of us 1 person said they have not been in 4 years.
So in summary
1) repeat guest are still going
2) one and done are still packing the parks.

So what will happen in the long run?? That's a serious question. The only thing I see for the next 5-10 years is that until the economy stalls Disney is going to make a crap load of money.
Look at it this way, you guys are the Disney elite, the ones who know the history, the major players, folks here dissect the theme, the archeticure, the business model, and with everything that is known, you still give the mouseworld a lot of cash.

I really can't think of any other company or vacation destination with that type of brand loyalty

 

[flynnibus]

And you are absolutely correct, and I know I'm beating a dead horse the difference is the repeat customer ARE still going. Just look at all the post here, a few folks even called it an addiction.
I think out of all of us 1 person said they have not been in 4 years.

Try doing that math again in the prior thread about 'pricing out'... funny those posts fell out of memory so quickly? I mean it's only been like a week or two

 

[eliza61nyc]

Try doing that math again in the prior thread about 'pricing out'... funny those posts fell out of memory so quickly? I mean it's only been like a week or two

FUNNY?? lol my kids are lucky if I remember their name and that they are supposed to be in the house. I remember one poster said that he had not been in 4 years? if there were more, I simply forgot. yeah it fell out of memory. this is play time not some thing that I remember once I turn off my keyboard. I;ve got a heck of a lot of more important things to deal with.

pffft, lol I've been known to call my kids by the dogs name and you think I remember stuff from the first page??

I do remember a few folks said they still go but spend less money on incidentals like meals and souvies. Yep I fully embrace my "old-timers".

oh I'm currently looking for the tv remote, I just had the darn thing, got up to get a drink and can't remember where I left it.

 

[John park hopper]

Disney corp may not have a Disney history but we old timers who have been with WDW from the start have. So bear with when we say I remember when--- blah blah blah. 5- 10 years we will all be dead (sarcasm) I hope

 

[flynnibus]

FUNNY?? lol my kids are lucky if I remember their name and that they are supposed to be in the house. I remember one poster said that he had not been in 4 years? if there were more, I simply forgot. yeah it fell out of memory. this is play time not some thing that I remember once I turn off my keyboard. I;ve got a heck of a lot of more important things to deal with.

pffft, lol I've been known to call my kids by the dogs name and you think I remember stuff from the first page??

I do remember a few folks said they still go but spend less money on incidentals like meals and souvies. Yep I fully embrace my "old-timers".

oh I'm currently looking for the tv remote, I just had the darn thing, got up to get a drink and can't remember where I left it.

So you're saying anything you cite is unreliable. gotcha.

 

[eliza61nyc]

So you're saying anything you cite is unreliable. gotcha.

Lol, if that's what you choose to see then sure whatever.
There is no "unreliable",. I post my opinion which in this case has not changed 1 bit which is why I apologised for beating a dead horse.
Disney has no incentive to change, why?? Because for the most part we're still going.