Official "Rita" thread!

Debbie

Well-Known Member
Aurora_25 said:
We are in SugarLand (outside of Houston- closer to Galveston) so Paul has told me that I need to go with the kids to Austin and stay with his parents there.
I agree with your Aunt- it's better not to take chances. Paul has to stay (work stuff) but I don't so I am gone.

I'm so glad that you are leaving. It is hard enough to take cover for yourself; much less protect your children. Get some plastic containers and put your pictures and papers in them. Those are irreplaceable.
Remember that tornados produced from a hurricane are not the kind that you can see down the road; like in the Wizard of Oz. They pop down and then pop right back up. This is clearly evident in the damage I've seen around New Orleans. The closer to the eyewall; the more tornados, east or west of it.
Stay Safe--Deb
 

Woody13

New Member
Wtnt33 Knhc 220008
Tcpat3
Bulletin
Hurricane Rita Intermediate Advisory Number 17a...corrected
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
7 Pm Cdt Wed Sep 21 2005

Corrected Pressure Conversion To 26.52 Inches

...category Five Hurricane Rita Continuing To Deepen...
...now The Third Most Intense Hurricane In The Atlantic Basin
On Record...

The Pressure Has Been Falling Rapidly During The Day And The Latest
Minimum Central Pressure Recently Reported By An Air Force Reserve
Unit Reconnaissance Aircraft Was 898 Mb...26.52 Inches. This Makes
Rita The Third Most Intense Hurricane In Terms Of Pressure In The
Atlantic Basin.
 

Woody13

New Member
Wtnt33 Knhc 220241
Tcpat3
Bulletin
Hurricane Rita Advisory Number 18
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
10 Pm Cdt Wed Sep 21 2005

...category Five Rita Continuing To Strengthen Over The Central
Gulf Of Mexico...

Rita Is Moving Toward The West Near 9 Mph ...15 Km/hr...and This
General Motion At A Slightly Faster Forward Speed Is Expected
During The Next 24 Hours.

Maximum Sustained Winds Are Near 175 Mph...280 Km/hr...with Higher
Gusts. Rita Is A Potentially Catastrophic Category Five Hurricane On
The Saffir-simpson Scale. Some Fluctuations In Intensity Are Likely
During The Next 24 Hours.

The Estimated Minimum Central Pressure Is 897 Mb...26.49 Inches.
This Means Rita Is The Third Most Intense Hurricane In Terms Of
Pressure In The Atlantic Basin.
 

Woody13

New Member
Wtnt43 Knhc 220311
Tcdat3
Hurricane Rita Discussion Number 18
Nws Tpc/national Hurricane Center Miami Fl
11 Pm Edt Wed Sep 21 2005

Rita Has Continued To Strengthen Since The Last Advisory. A
Dropsonde In The Eye Of Rita Around 21/2309z Recorded A Pressure Of
899 Mb With A Surface Wind Of 32 Kt. Anything Below 10 Kt Is
Usually Considered A Valid Pressure. However...the General Thumb
Rule Is To Decrease The Pressure 1 Mb For Every 10 Kt Above That
Wind Speed. In This Case... Rita's Central Pressure Is Estimated To
Be 897 Mb...making It The Third Most Intense Hurricane In Terms Of
Pressure For The Atlantic Basin. The Last Recon Pass Only Indicated
2 Reports Of 700 Mb Flight-level Winds Of 157 Kt In The Northeast
Quadrant. However... Odt Values Over The Past 2 Hours Have Averaged
Between T7.3/149 Kt And T7.4/152 Kt... So The Initial Intensity Has
Been Increased To 150 Kt. The Pressure-wind Relationship For An 897
Mb Pressure Is 160 Kt.

The Initial Motion Estimate Is 280/08. Rita Has Actually Made A
Large Wobble And Slowed To A 285/06 Kt Motion The Past 6 Hours.
However...such Motion Changes...which Are Not Unusual For
Explosively Deepening Tropical Cyclones As The Inner Core Wind
Field And Convective Pattern Reorganizes...are Considered Temporary
And Rita Is Expected To Shortly Resume A More Westward Motion. The
18z Nhc Model Guidance Is A Little More Convergent Than Previous
Model Runs... With The Gfs And Gfdl Models Doing Their Usual
Afternoon Eastward Shift. Those Models Now Bring Rita Across The
Houston-galveston Area In About 72 Hours. However...the Other
Models Seem To Have Stabilized Their Forecast Tracks Farther West
With The Consensus Having Shifted A Little More To The Right. The
Official Forecast Track Was Also Shifted To The Right...but Not As
Far As The Gfs/gfdl Models...since It Now Appears That The Global
Models Have A Reasonable Handle On Weakening The Mid-level Ridge
Across Texas And The Gulf Coast Based 22/00z Upper-air Data
Indicating 40 Meter Height Falls Across This Region During The Past
24 Hours.

The Intensity Forecast Is Somewhat Problematic. The Upper-level
Outflow Pattern Is Perfect With A Poleward Outflow Channel
Converging Into An Upper-low Northeast Of The Lesser Antilles... An
Equatorward Outflow Channel Converging Into An Upper-low Over The
Bay Of Campeche...and A Third Weak Outflow Channel Developing To
The Northwest. This Extremely Favorable Pattern...combined With
30-31c Ssts...has Allowed Rita's Explosive Deepening To Occur. The
Eye Will Be Passing Over The Warm Gulf Loop Current During The Next
12 Hours...so Some Additional Strengthening Is Possible... If An
Eyewall Replacement Cycle Does Not Inhibit The Intensification
Process. By 36-48 Hours...the Global Models Are In Good Agreement
That The Current Three Outflow Channel Pattern Will Be Replaced By
Mainly A Large Poleward Outflow Pattern. This Should Induce Some
Steady Weakening...but That Type Of Outflow Pattern...coupled With
Expected Low Vertical Shear Conditions...is Still Sufficient To
Support A Category 4 Hurricane Until Landfall Occurs. Of Course...
Internal Dynamics Also Play A Role In What The Intensity Of A
Hurricane Will Be... And We Have No Skill In Forecasting Eyewall
Replacement Cycles Beyond About 6-12 Hours...at Best. The Intensity
Forecast Is Similar To The Trend Of The Ships Model...only Slightly
Higher After 24 Hours Due To Lower Vertical Shear Indicated By The
Nogaps...canadian...ukmet...and Ecmwf Models.

Forecaster Stewart
 

Debbie

Well-Known Member
It's made a northward jog overnight which could indicate the high pressure steering it west is weakening. Wherever it makes landfall; the area is just going to be devastated.
 

Tim G

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Hurricane Rita Could Be Gulf's Worst Storm Ever

Storm Carries Winds Of 170 MPH; Hurricane Watch Issued



UPDATED: 10:07 am EDT September 22, 2005


GALVESTON, Texas -- Hurricane Rita has the potential to be the worst storm ever to hit Texas.

The Category 5 storm and its 170-mph winds are expected to slam into the Gulf Coast Saturday.

Forecasters said the storm could be the most intense hurricane on record to ever hit Texas, and there's also concern that Rita, still about two days away from the Gulf Coast, could turn out to be one of the most powerful storms ever to strike the U.S. mainland.

It's currently the third strongest storm ever recorded in the Atlantic basin.

The U.S. mainland has been hit by Category 5 hurricanes only three times in recorded history. The most recent one was Andrew, which crashed into South Florida in 1992. And the United States has never been hit by both a Category 5 and a Category 4 hurricane in the same Atlantic storm season.

Hurricane Katrina, which devastated the Gulf Coast of Louisiana and Mississippi, was a Category 4 when it struck at the end of August.

Meanwhile, Texas interstates are nearly at a standstill and gasoline shortages are already being reported as hundreds of thousands of people try to escape Hurricane Rita.

Near Houston, the traffic jam is reported to be up to 100 miles long. Gov. Rick Perry has ordered southbound traffic on Interstate 45 shut down and all eight lanes redirected north for 125 miles. Texas officials said that's a first.

Houston Mayor Bill White said decisions will be made later on east-west interstates, and local officials said people who don't attempt to get out won't be rescued.

Near the upper Texas coast, there's more of the same. It's been a sea of brake lights heading away from the area, which includes Galveston. Galveston's mayor said the island city is running short of evacuation buses and warns that stragglers may be on their own.

At 7 a.m. CDT, the eye of Hurricane Rita was located near latitude 25.2 north, longitude 88.3 west or about 490 miles southeast of Galveston, and about 595 miles east-southeast of Corpus Christi. Rita is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

Heavy rain from Rita should be hitting the western and central Gulf Coast by Thursday night, with eventual accumulations of a foot or more.

The Louisiana and Mississippi Gulf Coast, hammered by Hurricane Katrina, could be in for more flooding, but Texas should get the worst of it.

A hurricane watch has been issued from Port Mansfield, Texas, to Intracoastal City, La., and a tropical storm warning is in effect for the southeastern coast of Louisiana east of Morgan City to the mouth of the Mississippi River. A tropical storm watch has been issued for east of Intracoastal City to Morgan City and from south of Port Mansfield to Brownsville, Texas. A tropical storm watch is also in effect for the northeast coast of Mexico from Rio San Fernando northward.

Mandatory evacuation orders currently cover all of Galveston, Texas, low-lying sections of Houston and Corpus Christi, and a mostly empty New Orleans. In all, about 1 million people along the Gulf Coast have been told to get moving.

The Army Corps of Engineers is racing to shore up the levee system in New Orleans. There are concerns that additional rain could swamp the walls that have just been built back up, and the city could flood again.

Houston Mayor Bill White said people living in areas prone to flooding or threatened by a storm surge should plan to leave. He also urged evacuation for people in mobile homes or other buildings that "common sense" would indicate are too weak for the storm.

White said businesses and schools should plan to be closed Thursday and Friday to enable people to leave.

The mayor said the government doesn't have the capacity to evacuate everyone, so people should help one another. He added that "neighbor caring for neighbor" is the first line of defense.

White said anyone who doesn't have a car or way to get out should reach out to friends, family or neighbors, and added anyone who still can't find a ride should contact the government for help.

Texas officials have asked New Mexico's Office of Homeland Security to take hundreds, perhaps even 1,000 people displaced by Hurricane Katrina, as the Gulf region braces for Rita's potential landfall.

Rita Gives Gov't Second Chance To Get It Right



The Bush administration is vowing to be more prepared for Hurricane Rita than it was for Hurricane Katrina.

Politicians are reading from their pre-Hurricane Katrina scripts as they brace for Rita -- and an unwelcome second chance to get it right.

President George W. Bush is getting constant updates on the latest storm and on federal efforts to get ready.

The Homeland Security Department has declared it an "incident of national significance," clearing the way for a quick and massive federal response.

The government is already rushing rescue teams, evacuation buses and hospital beds to the region.

Federal, state and city officials pledge not to repeat lethal errors made in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama.

Disaster-relief experts cite three reasons for hope:
  • Stung by Katrina, the Bush administration is more deeply engaged in preparations for Rita than it was for the earlier storm
  • State officials in Texas have more assets than their Gulf Coast counterparts
  • And Katrina has taught every level of government lessons in disaster management.
    White House spokesman Scott McClellan says the federal government would be better prepared and in better position to respond to Hurricane Rita.
The Associated Press reports government officials hope not to repeat the following errors:
  • Food and other supplies trickled into the Gulf Coast for Katrina. Homeland Security chief Michael Chertoff says helicopters are standing by to ship in relief this time.
  • Lawlessness broke out in New Orleans.
    Texas Gov. Rick Perry has 5,000 National Guard troops and 1,000 Department of Safety troopers positioned.
    The Bush administration was reluctant to use its authority to deploy federal troops into the Gulf Coast. It may be quicker on the draw this time.
  • There was a leadership gap. While deep systemic problems contributed to the problem, the administration's FEMA disaster chief, Michael Brown, took the fall and resigned after Katrina.
  • Scores of people failed to heed evacuation warnings in New Orleans, either because they had no transportation or they didn't want to leave.
Galveston began evacuation days before Rita was set to hit this weekend.

Should Algiers Section Of N.O. Evacuate?

Residents of the Algiers section of New Orleans are for the most part still there.

They came home when city officials gave the green light this week, but now may have to get out again because of Hurricane Rita pushing through the Gulf of Mexico. Currently, the Category 5 storm is aiming at Texas, with landfall expected by the weekend.

New Orleans Mayor Ray Nagin has yet to formally direct Algiers residents to get out, but many who stayed through Katrina now say they're ready to pack up and leave as soon as the order comes. They say emotionally, they just can't handle the hit from another big storm.
 

wannab@dis

Well-Known Member
Not dial-up friendly... taken yesterday mid afternoon.

poesn18f.jpg
 

DDuckFan130

Well-Known Member
Take care everyone in its path. They're showing cars that have been in the same spot for about an hour without moving. Hopefully Paul (hakunamatata) and his family are able to get out safely.
 

Irrawaddy Erik

Well-Known Member
My classes are once again canceled. Work has yet to close but I believe they might by tomorrow. The weather has already taken a turn for the worse. It's been raining here for almost two hours and there has been a 20 degree dip in the temperature.
 

Tim G

Well-Known Member
Original Poster
Hundreds Of Thousands Evacuate Ahead Of Rita


UPDATED: 6:00 pm EDT September 22, 2005


GALVESTON, Texas - Hurricane Rita closed in on the nation's fourth-largest city and the heart of the U.S. oil-refining industry with howling 145 mph winds Thursday, sending hundreds of thousands of people fleeing in a frustratingly slow, bumper-to-bumper exodus.

"This is the worst planning I've ever seen," said Julie Anderson, who covered just 45 miles in 12 hours after setting out from her home in the Houston suburb of LaPorte. "They say we've learned a lot from Hurricane Katrina. Well, you couldn't prove it by me."

In all, nearly 2 million people along the Texas and Louisiana coasts were urged to get out of the way of Rita, a 400-mile-wide storm that weakened Thursday from a top-of-the-scale Category 5 hurricane to a Category 4 as it swirled across the Gulf of Mexico.

It also made a sharper-than-expected turn to the right late in the afternoon, on a course that could spare Houston and nearby Galveston a direct hit and send it instead toward Port Arthur, Texas, or Lake Charles, La., at least 60 miles up the coast, by late Friday or early Saturday.

But it was still an extremely dangerous storm -- and one aimed at a section of coastline with the nation's biggest concentration of oil refineries. Environmentalists warned of the possibility of a toxic spill from the 87 industrial plants and storage installations that represent more than one-fourth of U.S. refining capacity.

Rita also brought rain to already-battered New Orleans, raising fears that the city's Katrina-damaged levees would fail and flood the city all over again.

At 5 p.m. EDT, Rita was centered about 405 miles southeast of Galveston and was moving at near 9 mph. Its winds were near 140 mph, down from 175 mph earlier in the day.
Forecasters predicted it would come ashore somewhere along a 350-mile stretch of the Texas and Louisiana coast that includes Port Arthur near the midpoint.

Forecasters warned of the possibility of a storm surge of 15 to 20 feet, battering waves, and rain of up to 15 inches along the Texas and western Louisiana coast.

The evacuation was a traffic nightmare, with red brakelights streaming out of Houston and its low-lying suburbs as far as the eye could see.
Highways leading inland out of Houston, a metropolitan area of 4 million people, were clogged for up to 100 miles north of the city.

Drivers ran out of gas in 14-hour traffic jams or looked in vain for a place to stay as hotels filled up all the way to the Oklahoma and Arkansas line.
Others got tired of waiting in traffic and turned around and went home.

Service stations reported running out of gasoline, and police officers along the highways carried gas to motorists whose tanks were on empty.
Texas authorities also asked the Pentagon for help in getting gasoline to drivers stuck in traffic.

Rather than sit in traffic, some people walked their dogs, got out to stretch or switch drivers, or lounged in the beds of pickup trucks.
Fathers and sons played catch on freeway medians. Some walked from car to car, chatting with others.

With temperatures in the 90s, many cars were overheating, as were some tempers.

"I've been screaming in the car," said Abbie Huckleby, who was trapped on Interstate 45 with her husband and two children as they tried to get from the Houston suburb of Katy to Dallas, about 250 miles away. "It's not working. If I would have known it was this bad, I would have stayed at home and rode out the storm at home."

Trazanna Moreno decided to do just. After leaving her Houston home and covering just six miles in nearly three hours, she finally gave up.

"It could be that if we ended up stranded in the middle of nowhere that we'd be in a worse position in a car dealing with hurricane-force winds than we would in our house," she said.

To speed the evacuation, Gov. Rick Perry halted all southbound traffic into Houston along I-45 and took the unprecedented step of opening all eight lanes to northbound traffic out of the city for 125 miles. I-45 is the primary evacuation route north from Houston and Galveston.

Perry urged evacuees to stay calm and be patient.

"You've done the right thing by leaving two days before Hurricane Rita makes landfall," he said. "You will get out of the coastal region on time.
It's just going to take some time."

In Galveston, a city rebuilt after an unnamed 1900 hurricane killed between 6,000 and 12,000 residents in what is still the deadliest natural disaster in U.S. history, the once-bustling tourist island was all but abandoned, with at least 90 percent off its 58,000 residents cleared out.

The city pinned its hopes on its 11-mile-long, 17-foot-high granite seawall to protect it from the storm surge, and a skeleton crew of police and firefighters to ward off potential looters.

"Whatever happens is going to happen and we are going to have a monumental task ahead of us once the storm passes," said City Manager Steve LeBlanc. "Galveston is going to suffer and we are going to need to get it back in order as soon as possible."

The last major hurricane to strike the Houston area was Category-3 Alicia in 1983.
It flooded downtown Houston, spawned 22 tornadoes and left 21 people dead.

At Houston's Johnson Space Center, NASA evacuated its staff, powered down the computers at Mission Control and turned the international space station over to the Russian space agency.

Along the coast, petrochemical plants began shutting down and hundreds of workers were evacuated from offshore oil rigs.
Environmentalists warned of a worst-case scenario in which a storm surge pushed spilled oil or chemicals from the bayous into the city of Houston itself, inundating mostly poor, Hispanic neighborhoods on its south side.

Perry said state officials had been in contact with plants that are "taking appropriate procedures to safeguard their facilities."

In New Orleans, Rita's steady rains Thursday were the first measurable precipitation since Katrina.
The forecast was for three to five inches in the coming days, dangerously close to the amount engineers said could send floodwaters pouring back into neighborhoods that have been dry for less than a week.

"Right now, it's a wait-and-see and hope-for-the-best," said Mitch Frazier, a spokesman for the Army Corps of Engineers, which added sandbags to shore up levees and installed 60-foot sections of metal across some of the city's canals to protect against storm surges.

But as the rain fell, there were ominous signs it might not be enough. In the city's lower Ninth Ward, where water broke through a levee earlier this month and caused some of the worst flooding, there was standing water a foot deep in areas that were dry a day earlier.

Katrina's death toll in Louisiana rose to 832 on Thursday, pushing the body count to at least 1,069 across the Gulf Coast.
But workers under contract to the state to collect the bodies were taken off the streets of New Orleans because of the approaching storm.

In southwestern Louisiana, anywhere from 300,000 to 500,000 residents along the state's southwest coast were urged to evacuate and state officials planned to send in buses to take refugees, some of whom had already fled Katrina.

"Rita has Louisiana in her sights," Louisiana Gov. Kathleen Blanco said. "Head north. You cannot go east, you cannot go west.
If you know the local roads that go north, take those."

As for those who refuse to leave, she said: "Perhaps they should write their Social Security numbers on their arms with indelible ink."

National Guard and medical units were put on standby. Helicopters were being positioned, and search-and-rescue boats from the state wildlife department were staged on high ground.
Blanco said she also asked for 15,000 more federal troops.
 

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