Ok...going to take your paragraphs one by one for my response...think it's easier on the eyes that way.
I understand what you're saying but am unsure about the "It already has a some...Uni's market share is going up with no signs of stopping ..." remark. IOA attendance jumped; there's no doubt that WWOHP was a huge hit for UO. I recall reading that attendance increased by 30%. Is it going to jump another 30% this year and next year? I don't see how.
No, I highly doubt attendance is going to jump another 30% next this year and next year...30% is a massive amount of growth and I think to expect that kind of growth every year is a pretty unreasonable. But attendance not growing by 30% doesn't mean attendance won't be growing at all. Whether its 5, 10, 15% ect, growth is still growth. And I do suspect Uni will continue to grow and capture a bigger market share, albiet maybe at a slower rate until HP 2.0 opens.
I'm a UO AP holder but suspect attendance would eventually level off or even decline slightly without HP2 and other new attractions at UO. No matter how highly you think of WWOHP and FJ, they are only one land/attraction. You can visit them only so many times. I wonder how 2012/2013 attendance will be at UO compared to the post-HP 2010/2011 numbers. I speculate that a lot of people were excited when WWOHP opened and jumped at the chance to see it during its first 12-to-18 months. Is that enthusiasm going to carry through to 2012 and 2013? I just don't see how. I'm not saying that attendance will suddenly drop, just that it won't increase another 30%. UO should get another bump from HP2 but then how long will that bump last? I have no idea.
The part I bolded is exactly what is happening at Disney right now. They've stayed stagnant attendance wise for the past four years. I'm sure attendance would probably level off eventually if Universal decided to not do anything...but the thing is they aren't. They have HP 2.0 in the works but if y ou've read through this thread...Universal is working on more offerings in the future beyond that. That is going to be a draw for years to come.
I'd have to disagree about your speculation honestly. There are still many many more people who haven't yet gotten to visit HP than have. And judging by the continued growth, I don't think that enthusiaum is dying down any time soon. HP is still "new" as far as the them park word is concerned. Though I will give you that who knows how long the bump from Potter will last...it think that will honestly be pretty hard to measure considering that Universal is going to keep adding things after Potter...will any bumps seen then still be attributed to Potter? I dont know
The second part I bolded...same thing could be said of NFE when it intially opens...it's not going to be the people drawer HP was/is I'm guessing any bump WDW sees from it won't last nearly as long. It's a good addition but it's not something on a spectacular scale the way HP is. Aand really Disney World as a whole and yet people keep returning. I don't think before Potter people felt as much incentive to return to Uni but with Potter and the other new oerings, I think you could potentially start to see that Disney trend of people returning more often to Uni.
Has WDW been hurt by WWOHP? I suspect some people took 1 or 2 days out of their usual WDW vacations to visit UO. These people's changed vacation habits would hurt WDW attendance. Conversely, some people have headed to Orlando explicitly to see WWOHP, then added a few days at WDW in to complete a (typically American) week-long vacation in Orlando. The net effect on WDW's bottom line is probably negligible. If I correctly recall, WDW attendance has remained relatively flat over the last year years, it did not decline when WWOHP opened.
Money lost is money lost. Whether they took out two days, one day, or half a day, thats money that didn't go into Disney's pockets. One soda not spent at Disney times several million is a lot of money. I think you are putting too much stock in absolute attendance numbers. Those don't really matter what it comes to looking at this, it's all about percentages.
And the rest of your paragraph is kind of the idea of "a rising tide raises all ships." Which was stated in the original article this thread talked about. But the thing is, as you stated, attendance has remained repretty much flat. No it didn't decline but it didn't rise either so I'm not sure how much weight I can put on your argument that people tacked on a few more days at WDW. do I think what's going on at Universal is substantially hurting Disney right now? No. But it could in the near future if growth continues like it has.
I really like UO and, as already mentioned, am a UO AP holder. However, I don't view Universal as more than a 1 or 2 day trip for most Orlando vacationers. HP2 and a few more headliner attractions might turn it into a 3-day trip. It siphons off more people from WDW but encourages more people to come to Orlando, spend 2 or 3 days at Universal, and then fill out the remainder of their week-long vacations elsewhere, mostly at WDW.
I don't think Universal is right now worth more than 2-3 days either. At least not right now and I love the parks. And Uni is adding more headliners even beyond HP 2.0 so you might up that trip to 3 days is the relatively near future
You are again using the arguement that a "rsing tide raises all all ships"...but again, that statistics thus far regarding attendance just haven't supported that. I'm not sure you can say people are filling out their week long vacations "mostly at WDW"...are many choosing that route? Sure. But they are also choosing Sea World, Lego Land, Busch Gardens, ect...there are a lot of options, nmany less expensive than Disney that people are choosing. When Uni's attendance rises 30% but there isn't even a blip on WDW's attendance thaat doesn't say to me that Uni's growth is helping WDW at all. Maybe it will in the future, but again, just haven't seen anything to support that so far.
Sorry if the above post is rambling but my basic point is that UO adding more attractions won't significantly hurt WDW's bottom line until Orlando visitors are able to spend a week-long vacation at UO, until vacationers are forced to choose between UO and WDW. As UO adds more attractions, UO is the primary beneficiary but the rest of Orlando (mostly WDW) benefits as well.
Sorry, but again, and I know I sound like a broken record, you're saying the rising tide raises all ships. But I haven't seen any facts, like just talking basic numbers to support that. So I just don't buy it. So far I just haven't seein any evidence WDW is benifiting from Uni's growth. Has it brought down attendance? Not so far but as you said earlieer, people are taking the time out of their vacations to go to Uni rather than just stay at WDW. And that's money lost. that's bad. Even if Disney shows another record year of profits it's bad...because they could have made more money if Uni wasn't stealing some of their customers away. There is a reason the insiders report that TDO are a bit freaked out by Potter and I'm sure they are nervous for when HP 2.0 opens as they are adding 2! huge new E tickets...something Disney has not done. And Avatar is still a while away, at least 5 years away so no new big rides are coming to the parks...and big rides are what bring people to parks. That is a nother statisically proven fact.
