I'm not convinced this is true. They had to increase Fastpass capacity by adding it on to other attraction that didn't need it in order to facilitate the "3 per guest" quota. At Epcot, for example I'm guessing the average guests would use 2 or less Fastpasses per day. For Hollywood Studios and Animal Kingdom, it is probably 2 or 3 per day for the most aggressive user, while at MK the number is probably higher. I wouldn't be surprised if @lentesta has more solid estimates.Yes, I've mentioned that... I just find it hard to believe the take-up rate is so different and that the cummulative effect can be so dramatic.
Remeber.. those that DID use FP would have been using similar amounts or MORE than 3. Now people are being limited to three.. and people are still limited by how many FP/+ the company makes available. So while there may be more people taking a FP reservation... there is also offset of people being capped.
You touched upon the education aspect that is going to plague Group 3 under Fastpass+, just like it did under Fastpass. There will be people that just assume this is a pay service, or are otherwise ignorant of it. Disney's option here is to try and sell these people on the advantage of Fastpass+, and then sell them on reservations like Living with the Land, Spaceship Earth and The Seas with Nemo and Friends.To make this play out.. you'd have something like this
Group 1 - knows what they are doing.. they use FP+ on marquee stuff
Group 2 - is semi-aware... they use FP+ on marquee where they can, and maybe get pushed to lesser attractions for some of their FP+s
Group 3 - is unaware... and is willing to allocate and USE FP+ on all the lesser attractions
Group 3 needs to be huge to make the impact so large around the park and not just isolated to the marquee attractions. Now, I know the amount of ignorant people is high... but are they actually cashing in all those FP+ as well?
Remember, it's not just FP+ allocation.. but it actually takes someone redeeming it to impact a line. If the smart people are using their FP+ on the main attractions... who are all these people bloating the JII line.. etc? Do we believe there are people redeeming all of their FP+s on the junk attractions?
I'm sure it happens.. but happens enough to boost the lines to the degree people are complaining about here? High capacity rides sustaining 30+ min waits during a 'low season'??
That's why I don't think you can attest this all to one factor (arrival of advance reservation) - there has to be some serious tinkering with how many are allocated, crowds, and maybe even ride capacity to make this perfect storm IMO. It's only observation at this point.. but I think the real answer is multifaceted.