A ratio being 10/1 has nothing to do with the percent of ride capacity taken up by FP. They are two *entirely*s, different things. Plus, that's a kind of obnoxious response "your really don't know, do you".
You are confusing ride capacity and demand. Let's say a ride has a capacity of 2,000/hr. If you give out half the capacity FP (1,000) per hour, that leaves half for standby. If in the first hour, 2,000 standby riders show up, then you have a 1-hr wait.
Normally, you'd expect a FP wait time to be about 0 (that's the whole idea, isn't it), but if everyone shows up right at the beginning of a window, there will be some irregularity. In the example above, there will be no riders waiting on the FP line, and 1,000 riders on standby. Technically that's a ratio of infinity, but say for the sake of argument that a lot of FP riders show up at once and there are 50 on line. That's a ratio of 20-to-1 on line. But still only 50% of the ride's capacity have been reserved for FP.
If the real demand for the ride is 3,000 riders that hour (as it is in the example above - 1,000 for FP riders, and 2,000 arriving as standby), and there is no FP, then 2,000 riders will be serviced the first hour, and 1,000 will be left on line - the same as if there were FP.
One could argue that not having FP would reduce the demand, and therefore the line would be shorter. That's true. So let's suppose that the lack of FP reduces the demand from 3,000 to 2,500, then you have 1/2 hour wait at the end of the hour, and 500 riders who were so unhappy with the wait times that they didn't get to ride at all. I don't see how this improves the situation.
No matter how you cut it up, FP=good, and lack of FP does *not* reduce wait times, except if you consider riders who gave up in frustration.
Any attraction’s line length is influenced by supply and demand. As you allude to, this combines elements of queuing and game theories.
A few points to consider:
Regardless of whatever form of queuing mechanism is used, capacity is essentially fixed at WDW. (Yes, they sometimes reduce capacity during slower times but I’m focusing on what might be considered normal operation.) Therefore at WDW, line length is determined solely by demand.
If there were no human element, FP would neither increase or decrease total wait time. FP simply redistributes wait time. If I get to wait less for an attraction because of FP, then someone else has to wait longer.
Although introduced over 14 years ago, most WDW guests use FP on a very limited basis. Disney tried to educate guests for years, yet despite its best efforts, FP usage tends to be dominated by a limited set of super-users who use it disproportionately. These tend to be locals or others who visit WDW frequently. These super-users often can score a dozen or more FPs in a day.
FP allows a user to effectively occupy two lines at once, artificially inflating demand.
Guests tend to self-regulate when it comes to the Standby line. The Standby line can be thought of as the price of admission. Disproportionately, infrequent WDW visitors are willing to pay higher prices. If I’m on a once-in-a-lifetime trip to WDW, I’m more likely to be willing to wait 120 minutes for TSM than someone who has ridden TSM dozens of times before.
When viewed together, FP means that a disproportionate number of experienced WDW guests get more FP than inexperienced WDW guests. Inevitably, it’s these inexperienced WDW guests who suffer, standing in sometimes insanely long lines to just so they can experience an attraction once in their lifetimes, while those who have experienced that same attraction dozens of times speed right by them.
Eliminating FP would reduce overall demand on the system because WDW’s super-users would be forced to stand in the same lines as less experienced guests. I’m an experienced WDW guest and know that I need to grab a TSM FP first thing in the morning. If I miss that, I’m forced to stand in line like the unfortunate souls in the Standby line. I’ve been on TSM dozens of times. Tell me that I need to wait 120 minutes and I am going to skip it on this trip. I go to WDW a lot and maybe the line will be shorter next trip or maybe I’ll show up for opening the next time before the line gets too long.
Eliminate FP and demand declines. As a result, total wait time decreases and the inexperienced WDW guest has a much more enjoyable experience. The experienced guest, well, they're going to come back again-and-again no matter what Disney does.
FP+ is not about improving guest satisfaction. Instead, as CFO Jay Rasulo said, “if we can get people to plan their vacation before they leave home, we know that we get more time with them. We get a bigger share of their wallet.”
FP+ is not being implemented for “guests”; it’s being implemented for corporate Disney.
