DisneyWarrior27
Active Member
Nah. It’ll make a billion.
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Moana 2 (Disney Animation - November 2024)
- Thread starter DCBaker
- Start date
Phroobar
Well-Known Member
In pesos?
DisneyWarrior27
Active Member
I mean a billion worldwide
Phroobar
Well-Known Member
Last time Disney Animation made a billion was with Frozen II and the hype was far bigger for that one. Disney hasn't passed $240 million since then. I don't see that in stars.
DisneyWarrior27
Active Member
Well I do.
Starship824
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- No
Inside Out 2 is the eighth highest grossing films of all time making $1.6 billion and Pixar wasn't doing well before that. Moana is insanely popular, it was the number 1 streamed movie last year and will probably still be this year. Unless Moana 2 is the worst film of the year it makes a lot of money.
At this point, I think the difference between Moana 2 breaking even and getting to $1 billion will lie in word-of-mouth and repeat business, especially if Wicked Part One goes over well with its target audience(s).
In the runup to Wish, looking at its tie-in material and song previews, my thinking was that the film would be subpar but be a hit anyway with the masses (I never liked Frozen after all but we all know what happened there!), at least getting to the break-even point if not $1 billion, and professional box office analysts had a good feeling about its chances too. That's what made its cratering with critics and audiences such a shock. Moana 2 at least has the goodwill accumulated by the first film to boost its chances and overcome how uninspired it looks so far.
Frozen II is generally regarded as not as good as Frozen, and yet, it surpassed Frozen's box office.
Same with Inside Out 2.
Same with Incredibles 2.
Same with Toy Story 4, tho, it earned as much as TS3, ~$1B.
Same with Inside Out 2.
Same with Incredibles 2.
Same with Toy Story 4, tho, it earned as much as TS3, ~$1B.
Phroobar
Well-Known Member
We're talking Disney Animation not Pixar. They are two different studios.
Starship824
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- No
Yes and Pixar was just as a bad a shape as Disney animation was before Inside Out 2. Disney Animation is dealing with a very similar situation to Pixar from a few months ago.
Phroobar
Well-Known Member
Doesn't mean Moana 2 is their golden ticket. But since @DisneyWarrior27 says it will do a billion I guess we have to go with that.
My post mentions Frozen II which greatly surpassed Frozen I at the box office.
Same situation with Moana II.
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
Moana 2 won't reach IO2's numbers neither domestically nor world wide. It's release schedule doesn't allow for it to reach those numbers domestically since it won't have the weekdays like IO2 until Christmas break when much of its box office has been drained. It should have a good Christmas break but it will have dropped off considerably from the opening. It could reach Frozen II's domestic numbers but I think it would have more potential if it were released a whole weekend before Thanksgiving. But since Wicked already has that date (November 22) and will still be doing well when M2 comes out, some of M2's numbers might be diluted. Still, I can see it hitting somewhere around $400 million domestic which is outstanding and could reach anywhere in the range of $800 mill-$1 bill world wide. I'm not as good at WW numbers.
Phroobar
Well-Known Member
Except it's not the same situation. People have been looking forward for years for Frozen II not so much for Moana II. They even made a joke over it in Ralph Breaks the Internet. Like I said, it will do fine but your living in fantasyland if you think it will do a billion dollars world wide.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
And as I recall people were saying the same thing about IO2 in this very thread. I don't know what Moana 2 will do, but I'm not naive to think it can't do a Billion worldwide. The one thing that Moana 2 as going for it, as others mentioned, it is the most streamed movie for the last couple years. So there appears to be pent up demand for the sequel, similar to Frozen. Which is exactly why this was moved to be a theatrical movie in the first place.
Also it should be said that at this point the average person doesn't see any difference between WDAS and Pixar, both are Disney to them.
Even a good Christmas break is up in the air -- Mufasa - The Lion King opens on the 20th of December, and since that's directly going up against another children's movie in Sonic the Hedgehog 3 Disney's going to switch its marketing game over from Moana 2 to that after its second weekend at the latest. Depending on how big those movies are, and how films like Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim and Kraven the Hunter play in the interim, AND how well or not Wicked Part One and Gladiator II leg it out, Moana 2's shelf life could be more limited than it appears if it doesn't do Inside Out 2 numbers over Thanksgiving. And Inside Out 2 wasn't competing directly against a film with a lot of overlapping audience appeal.
One reason Wish malingered in theaters last winter, rather than being kicked to the curb the way Joker Folie a Deux was, was because there simply were no other tentpole releases entering the marketplace for the first two weeks after it opened (as opposed to specialty titles like Beyonce's concert film, Godzilla Minus One, and The Boy and the Heron). I remember how much hope analysts/Disney Adults had that another slow-burn, qualified success like Elemental was at hand, but the word-of-mouth just wasn't there and kids were still in school. By the time families were starting to get back to theaters, Wonka (and not long after, Migration) was there to pick up that audience in the big auditoriums while Wish was maybe playing 2-3 showings a day in a small room, alternating with other aging/underperforming titles. Disney still ran television ads and the like for Wish through Christmas but families never seemed to get around to it.
That really is a possibility unless Wicked upsets its audience the way Joker Folie a Deux did and the word-of-mouth is toxic (and while it certainly remains to be seen whether the expanded two-part approach will delight or frustrate fans, that's nothing on what Joker had "going" for it).
What I have noticed beyond the good presales for Wicked is that the adult-oriented merchandise I've been seeing at big box stores (hair decorations, makeups, Stanley tumblers, the like) seems to be selling well, with displays that are clearly picked over. Indeed, every display of goodies at Barnes & Noble, Target, Ulta Beauty, Walmart, etc. is another big billboard for the movie. And Moana 2 doesn't have that level of reach yet. I'm seeing TV ads of course, but the toys are so far tucked alongside other Disney Princess merch (and even unsold Wish merchandise). I'm wondering when Disney's going to up its game, especially since, again, they have to switch focus to Mufasa - The Lion King so quickly.
And this doesn't even take into account how much or little foreign markets are interested in it, especially compared to Wicked (which has a significant international fanbase, especially in Japan).
So yes, Moana 2 will do fine but maybe not $1 billion great.
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BrianLo
Well-Known Member
I don’t know Moana 2’s top endpoint, but barely breaking even (~500-600) seems laughably wrong.
This is an exceptionally popular franchise that is not ‘over indexed’ popular. It’s still incredibly popular. Interest is through the roof. At the same time I think Inside Out 2’s final take was so incredibly beyond expected. If you asked me in January what the bigger franchise was, no hesitation: Moana. But that’s way too high of benchmark now to demand out of this film, not knowing its quality.
Barely breaking even is way too low and betrays a lack of acknowledgement about how strong this one is.
This is an exceptionally popular franchise that is not ‘over indexed’ popular. It’s still incredibly popular. Interest is through the roof. At the same time I think Inside Out 2’s final take was so incredibly beyond expected. If you asked me in January what the bigger franchise was, no hesitation: Moana. But that’s way too high of benchmark now to demand out of this film, not knowing its quality.
Barely breaking even is way too low and betrays a lack of acknowledgement about how strong this one is.
Eric Graham
Well-Known Member
I actually really enjoyed Frozen II. Looking forward greatly to the next one.
