MM+ Why we can't have nice things.

[SirLink]

But you lose the potential profits of those floors. If Shareholders are smart, they'd look at (or try to find out) RevPar and not occupancy alone for a hotel.

We'll extend the analogy, pre-9/11 I know I used to sell 50% of the inventory of the rooms that on the 3 floors I closed. If I know now that I can only shift 20-30% on spontaneous getaways, I also know that keeping those 3 floors open will directly impact the profit made on the open floors. I close the top 3 floors, I lay casual staff off, etc

Why to maintain maximum profitability.

 

[flynnibus]

But you lose the potential profits of those floors. If Shareholders are smart, they'd look at (or try to find out) RevPar and not occupancy alone for a hotel.

Which is why there is so little depth to the numbers reported out of the division. Companies don't want that kind of transparency into how they massage the business. Disney prioritizes per guest spending as their key metric to show trends with increasing or decreasing success on guest activity and disney's success at conversion.

It's not 'potential profit' when you have no buyers.. that's why its about forecasting demand and reacting. Potential is worthless if not converted

 

[RSoxNo1]

#disneycide lol

#disneycide will be the 2014 rallying cry

 

[GrumpyFan]

Which is why forecasting is so important for revenue management.

Which is where MB/MM+ comes in to play. With the advanced planning features, it gives WDW specific information on which parks, attractions, restaurants will be busiest on which days.

 

[ParentsOf4]

Which is why forecasting is so important for revenue management.

One of the interesting trends in recent years is that WDW guests have reduced their booking lead times.

Sorry that I don't recall the numbers but WDW guests used to book their vacations something like an average of 6 months in advance. Now, the number is something less than half that. (Again, I don't recall the exact numbers but, hopefully, you get the idea.)

This makes it increasingly difficult for Disney to manage resources appropriately.

You can debate cause. Are people's work schedules more uncertain than they used to be? Does the Internet make it easier to book? Are guests now so used to WDW discounts that they don't book until they are offered?

I don't know if it's mostly one reason or several contributing factors.

FP+ should provide Disney with a better sense of day-to-day patterns sufficiently in advance to optimize resource planning.

 

[CDavid]

I thought about comparing to Expedia's inventory in the Orlando area, but Expedia thinks most (if not all) of the Disney resorts are sold out, so who knows whether it shows an accurate view of inventory beyond the berm.

You cannot book any Disney resort through Expedia less than three days prior to arrival. Even when a room can be booked through Disney directly and there is (presumably ample) availability, at the 3 day point Expedia shows all resorts sold out. Same goes for Orbitz, and some others.

 

[rd805]

You cannot book any Disney resort through Expedia less than three days prior to arrival. Even when a room can be booked through Disney directly and there is (presumably ample) availability, at the 3 day point Expedia shows all resorts sold out. Same goes for Orbitz, and some others.

stop looking at Expedia lol --- book with a TA.

 

[fillerup]

Again, one then has to determine the root cause of the perceived decline. Are there fewer guests? Have gas prices gone up and more guests are taking DME? Have more guests arrived in groups using less vehicles with more passengers?

Anecdotal information from "regulars" [just how regular are they?] is still only part of a very subjective picture.

I'll field this one since I'm one of the regulars who posted on the other thread my observations of Epcot resort parking lots being unusually uncrowded on Christmas afternoon.

I completely agree with the above by the way since my post was entirely anecdotal. As to how regular I am, all I can say is that I'm at one resort or another in the neighborhood of 50 times per year - the vast majority being the Epcot resorts.

I'm completely accustomed to seeing the A-frame signs at these hotels saying that parking is for Registered Guests only. None of those signs were out on 12/25.

It's completely true that many guests are flying in and don't have a car but it's also true that most Orlando visitors drive. According to Visit Orlando 49% of visitors in 2010 came by plane. By 2012 that had fallen to 42%. That's in spite of the fact that Orlando total tourism set records in each of the past three years.

My conclusion (not suggesting this for anyone but me) is that occupancy at BW, YC & BC must be well below 100% during the busiest period of the year. We go every Christmas Day (free cookies don't ya know) and the small number of cars and low level of activity isn't something we'd seen before.

 

[Disneyhead'71]

If it makes you DisNerds any happier, while I will be dining at UOR tonight, I will be seeing Saving Mr. Banks after dinner.......in CityWalk!

 

[|Q|]

ok leave out paint and say new busses

they are better than the Universal busses... oh wait

I don't really think that ordinary maintenance should really be put in a "what's new" category (even if here in italy many cities still use trams from the 40s, lol)

 

[wdisney9000]

Just got our magic bands delivered and had to share this with you guys. I didnt think they would print this. lmao.

 

[SirLink]

If it makes you DisNerds any happier, while I will be dining at UOR tonight, I will be seeing Saving Mr. Banks after dinner.......in CityWalk!

You should be going to see 47 Ronin, better film.

 

[Brian Noble]

Sorry that I don't recall the numbers but WDW guests used to book their vacations something like an average of 6 months in advance. Now, the number is something less than half that. ... You can debate cause. Are people's work schedules more uncertain than they used to be? Does the Internet make it easier to book? Are guests now so used to WDW discounts that they don't book until they are offered?

This was a trend that extended well beyond WDW, (even including business/meeting bookings) and it started in the depths of the recession. Essentially, folks didn't plan well ahead because they were not confident that they would have jobs. As consumer confidence improves, this may also.

 

[ABQ]

This was a trend that extended well beyond WDW, (even including business/meeting bookings) and it started in the depths of the recession. Essentially, folks didn't plan well ahead because they were not confident that they would have jobs. As consumer confidence improves, this may also.

Yup, this is still a very real and very valid impact on a huge number of people's plans. People saving their vacation in the event they are laid off (with the assumption some portion if not all accrued vacation time will be paid out upon a lay off) as well as an extensive number of organizations putting a moratorium on any and all non essential travel.

 

[ford91exploder]

I assure you that when you are on the management side of a business and someone in Finance tells you that the segment is losing hundreds of millions in profits due to discounts (profits that are tied to your bonus and stock options), you quickly starting thinking like Finance.

Agree to an extent this is highly dependent on company culture at our shop I'm high enough on food chain to have own budget, But in our case while we have to please the 'Street customer satisfaction is equally weighted for bonus allocation because if customers are not satisfied they will buy from our competitors and then there will be NO PROFIT from that customer.

 

[GrumpyFan]

One of the interesting trends in recent years is that WDW guests have reduced their booking lead times.

Sorry that I don't recall the numbers but WDW guests used to book their vacations something like an average of 6 months in advance. Now, the number is something less than half that. (Again, I don't recall the exact numbers but, hopefully, you get the idea.)

Sounds like something either Len Testa or Jim Hill might have said on one of their podcasts.
Regardless, I think it's just a result of the way Americans in general plan and pay for things. Good example, look at what just happened to UPS and FedEx at all of the missed deliveries, partly caused by a mass of late shipments. People just don't plan or save up for things any more, they just impulsively go online and buy it. Blame advertising or instability and insecurity in finances, or maybe its just an attitude shift, but it's become the norm.

 

[ford91exploder]

You cannot book any Disney resort through Expedia less than three days prior to arrival. Even when a room can be booked through Disney directly and there is (presumably ample) availability, at the 3 day point Expedia shows all resorts sold out. Same goes for Orbitz, and some others.

Even Disney itself shows this,

So Disney in the effort to save a few pennies blocks out those last minute trips once again tracking pennies while dollars are flying over their heads. So people like me who periodically get extra time off as a reward for a job well done cannot use that time at Disney.

 

[GrumpyFan]

Even Disney itself shows this,

So Disney in the effort to save a few pennies blocks out those last minute trips once again tracking pennies while dollars are flying over their heads. So people like me who periodically get extra time off as a reward for a job well done cannot use that time at Disney.

I don't think it has anything whatsoever to do with saving a few pennies. I believe It's more of a means to guarantee availability. There may still be available rooms, but in order to prevent over-booking, or the possibility of people staying longer or changing their days at the last minute, they might not be able to guarantee you a room, less than 3 days out. So, these are handled manually via direct contact with reservations and sometimes even the resort itself to confirm availability. If they didn't do it this way, you might show up with the expectation of a room that you booked at the last minute, only to discover that it's not available. They're really just trying to avoid that.

 

[ford91exploder]

Iger is not a finance guy. He has no finance background. He started his career with a BS in communications and got a job as a weatherman. I'm pretty sure he doesn't even have a dreaded MBA. He eventually hooked on with ABC and worked his way up in the ranks before Disney bought ABC but I don't think any of his roles were in the finance organization. He is a television/operations guy not a finance guy. Staggs and Rasulo are both finance guys who started their careers with investment banks (Morgan Stanley and Chase I think).

Translation - he BS'ed his way up the chain, And now his underlings are running the show both of whom are FINANCE guys.

Thanks for the @GoofGoof for the backgrounder on the 'Weatherman'

 

[ford91exploder]

I don't think it has anything whatsoever to do with saving a few pennies. I believe It's more of a means to guarantee availability. There may still be available rooms, but in order to prevent over-booking, or the possibility of people staying longer or changing their days at the last minute, they might not be able to guarantee you a room, less than 3 days out. So, these are handled manually via direct contact with reservations and sometimes even the resort itself to confirm availability. If they didn't do it this way, you might show up with the expectation of a room that you booked at the last minute, only to discover that it's not available. They're really just trying to avoid that.

In other words their hotel operations group is completely incompetent, As Hilton and all the other major hotel companies have been filling rooms day of for decades even before the advent of todays information systems.