MK Daily Attendance

[PhotoDave219]

I know lines in the 80s seemed to feel longer.

Now for the current crowds....all of the schools in our area start spring break at 12:30pm today. Considering it's a half day...lots of them headed to WDW either yesterday or late Wednesday. I've been getting live updates for over 24 hrs from several friends on spring break there right now.

Which school system? Florida?

 

[PhotoDave219]

I just have so say that lines of 35-40 minutes really aren't bad compared to other times of year. At Magic Kingdom, the most heavily visited theme park in the world, it is almost always going to "feel crowded."

If someone is waiting in line for 35-40 minutes, thats 35-40 minutes theyre not spending money. If it feels crowded or gets the reputation of being horribly overcrowded than people will take their money elsewhere.

 

[DisneyJoe]

Okay, I need more transparency from Len. What does a 4.2 mean? (Projection was 45k.) What does that translate to in actual people?

You can throw around TP's numbers all you want, but that doesnt mean anything to me until its translated to wait times and crowd numbers.

It doesn't map to people, it strongly maps to wait times, as well as taking in many other factors, such as EMH, Spring Breaks etc.

In other words, it gives you a number that helps you determine how long you may wait.

I'm probably over simplifying, but a TP number of 8.4 would give you wait times of 70-80 minutes.

 

[PhotoDave219]

It doesn't map to people, it strongly maps to wait times, as well as taking in many other factors, such as EMH, Spring Breaks etc.

In other words, it gives you a number that helps you determine how long you may wait.

I'm probably over simplifying, but a TP number of 8.4 would give you wait times of 70-80 minutes.

I want to know what a 10 on TP means. Does that mean a crowd of 90k at MK? Because if a 4.2 equates to 45k/day then we're going to be utterly screwed in two weeks.

 

[Goofyernmost]

I couldn't help but be surprised that anyone thinks a 35 to 40 minute wait for popular rides is "too much". Is it part of the "I want it now syndrome"? I have always gone during off season and that was the expected wait time for anything even when crowds were light. As more and more people show up, there is no way that this can be fixed. I assume that we are talking standby lines here. That was always the standard wait time even from when WDW was very young.

 

[DisneyJoe]

I want to know what a 10 on TP means. Does that mean a crowd of 90k at MK? Because if a 4.2 equates to 45k/day then we're going to be utterly screwed in two weeks.

How did you get from 4.2 to 45k? Are you assuming that taking the yearly attendance of the MK / 365 = 45k gives you a 5 on the TP scale? That is completely incorrect from my understanding of the TP scale. It doesn't map that neat and tidy, there are too many other factors under consideration.

I am saying that if you had 35-40 minute wait times yesterday and they ranked it a 4.2, then yes, you may see 70-80 minute wait times when the rank is an 8 - but it's the weekend before Easter. Once you hit March 24 through April 2, you are looking at their aggregate park numbers to be a 10 and a 10 will probably be longer than that.

Using a plan, arriving early, getting Fastpasses and some strategy can help.

 

[DisneyJoe]

I couldn't help but be surprised that anyone thinks a 35 to 40 minute wait for popular rides is "too much". Is it part of the "I want it now syndrome"? I have always gone during off season and that was the expected wait time for anything even when crowds were light. As more and more people show up, there is no way that this can be fixed. I assume that we are talking standby lines here. That was always the standard wait time even from when WDW was very young.

Agreed - and many of these can be over-inflated too due to the way they are measured. I've seen wait times of 40 minutes before and was pleasantly surprised when I only waited 20-25.

 

[PhotoDave219]

I couldn't help but be surprised that anyone thinks a 35 to 40 minute wait for popular rides is "too much". Is it part of the "I want it now syndrome"? I have always gone during off season and that was the expected wait time for anything even when crowds were light. As more and more people show up, there is no way that this can be fixed. I assume that we are talking standby lines here. That was always the standard wait time even from when WDW was very young.

There isn't an off season; Thats the point. The parks are constantly crowded. Theyre not fun that way. It makes me recommend people to not come.

 

[PhotoDave219]

Agreed - and many of these can be over-inflated too due to the way they are measured. I've seen wait times of 40 minutes before and was pleasantly surprised when I only waited 20-25.

Which is why I want a metric that isnt based on wait time, but on crowd size. But I also want to know what that scale is. So when you say yesterday was a 4.2 and it was uncomfortable and busy to walk around in, that leands me to believe that a 10 means "I dont want to be anywhere near this Unhappy place."

 

[DisneyJoe]

Which is why I want a metric that isnt based on wait time, but on crowd size. But I also want to know what that scale is. So when you say yesterday was a 4.2 and it was uncomfortable and busy to walk around in, that leands me to believe that a 10 means "I dont want to be anywhere near this Unhappy place."

There isn't one. This is as close as you are going to get, especially since it's easier for a team of people to go around and collect posted and actual wait times and other variables than to estimate crowd size, because that's all it would ever be.

It's also relative, and time dependent during the day. I could have been very comfortable with a 4.2, you weren't. At 3pm it could have looked like a ghost town, at 5pm there may have been a rush.

You will mainly see 10's during Christmas and Easter and some summer weeks.

FYI - park hours are another indicator that is taken into consideration. I just noticed that park hours were extended. During down times the MK may be open from 9-6 or 7, busy times it will be 9am-11pm or even later.

 

[PhotoDave219]

You will mainly see 10's during Christmas and Easter and some summer weeks.

You make it sound like one of my closest friends isnt the head of research for Touring Plans.

You make it sound like I havent lived in Orlando for the past year and a half or between 2004-2007.

You make it sound like I didn't go to the parks 126 times on my AP last year and have ZERO knowledge of crowd behavior, dynamics or levels at WDW.

So what else don't I know here?

 

[JIMINYCR]

I have always gone during off season and that was the expected wait time for anything even when crowds were light. As more and more people show up, there is no way that this can be fixed.

Possible answer.....ADD another park for the guests to visit...
Thats why so many have said... STOP building the DVC's .... which adds more numbers of guests, when what we need is another park to draw the additional crowds. But as more people buy into the DVC's Disney's continuing to make their profit and not worrying about how the cowds add up and extend the lines in the parks.

 

[DisneyJoe]

You make it sound like one of my closest friends isnt the head of research for Touring Plans.

Then why don't you understand his metric?

 

[hollywoodj]

If someone is waiting in line for 35-40 minutes, thats 35-40 minutes theyre not spending money. If it feels crowded or gets the reputation of being horribly overcrowded than people will take their money elsewhere.

People who knowingly go back to Disney know they're going to be waiting in lines. It's part of the experience. If you don't have enough patience to wait 35 minutes (if that, since they are usually overestimates) then you shouldn't be vacationing at a theme park, let alone the most popular one on the planet.

 

[Dads 2 Boys]

Touring Plans has the time frame I went (from 2/7-2/13) around 4.0 and it was more like 44. It was nuts and I think the historical data they use prior to 2009 might be obsolete. Crowd levels are very different than even even 3 yrs ago....very bizarre considering the faily small %age of increase.

 

[PhotoDave219]

People who knowingly go back to Disney know they're going to be waiting in lines. It's part of the experience. If you don't have enough patience to wait 35 minutes (if that, since they are usually overestimates) then you shouldn't be vacationing at a theme park, let alone the most popular one on the planet.

No. Waiting in line is not "part of the experience" unless its a refugee camp in war-torn Africa.

 

[ParentsOf4]

Well, I have 3 thoughts. 1) With regards to prices, they have risen much faster than inflation. However, one of the amazing things about prices and Disney is that lowering and raising the price doesn't have quite the impact on crowds you think it should (certainly not a linear impact). My gut tells me they are at a price point where another hike will lower attendance. They may already be there, since there was apparently concerns amongst the bigwigs about the lackage of impact FLE had on attendance.

Iger has stated publically that Disney has data supporting further price increases at the theme parks.

Of course, when it comes to the theme parks, Iger is out of his element and has been wrong several times. After all, Iger's the one who said FLE was going to be "pretty spectacular."

 

[Goofyernmost]

No. Waiting in line is not "part of the experience" unless its a refugee camp in war-torn Africa.

Well that's just not a reality. If WDW is popular there will always be crowds, rides only are capable of a specific number of guests per hour, no matter how much anyone would like it to take more, new rides might help but there will always be favorites and that will not stop waiting in line for the better ones. It may not be a pleasant part of the experience but it is indeed a real one.

If you can convince the public to not go to Disney at all, then the lines will always be no wait situations. However, the place will close before long. If one doesn't live within a few mile radius of WDW then a matrix doesn't mean anything. You cannot always plan a vacation around crowd levels. You go when you can.

 

[DisneyJoe]

Touring Plans has the time frame I went (from 2/7-2/13) around 4.0 and it was more like 44. It was nuts and I think the historical data they use prior to 2009 might be obsolete. Crowd levels are very different than even even 3 yrs ago....very bizarre considering the faily small %age of increase.

I agree - and I believe they are making adjustments.

 

[PhotoDave219]

Well that's just not a reality. If WDW is popular there will always be crowds, rides only are capable of a specific number of guests per hour, no matter how much anyone would like it to take more, new rides might help but there will always be favorites and that will not stop waiting in line for the better ones. It may not be a pleasant part of the experience but it is indeed a real one.

If you can convince the public to not go to Disney at all, then the lines will always be no wait situations. However, the place will close before long. If one doesn't live within a few mile radius of WDW then a matrix doesn't mean anything. You cannot always plan a vacation around crowd levels. You go when you can.

Why on earth do I want to go to a place where I wait in line forever?