Merchandise Shortage

[TP2000]

I dont know who to believe, the US Admintration or your charts. I know this sounds like political but the Biden Administration claims they fixed the port problem.

So sorry, but these aren't "my" charts. They are publicly available charts released weekly by the non-profit Marine Exchange of Southern California, an industry trade group celebrating it's 100th anniversary next year that works to develop and promote the maritime cargo industry in Southern California. From their website explaining their mission...

"The Marine Exchange of Southern California is a ninety plus year old, non-profit organization dedicated to the development and efficient flow of maritime commerce throughout the region. Our records of ship arrivals and departures go back to 1923 in a string broken only by WW II. Since then, we have evolved into the Maritime Information Center for the Los Angeles - Long Beach Port Complex."

Here is their latest chart on the massive backlog released a few hours ago on the backup through February 4th...

Marine Exchange of Southern California - A History of the Marine Exchange

MXSocal site description

mxsocal.org

 

[TP2000]

The answer is somewhere in between due to the slow steaming policy. Yes, there are now very few ships within 25 miles on a daily basis (aka White House numbers). TP2000’s premise is that the slow steaming ships could have and would have already been there, but due to the port’s queueing system, are purposefully taking long to save money on fuel and avoid fines for sitting near the port. So, both are “correct,” they’re simply defining success against drastically different objectives.

Here's how the Marine Exchange of Southern California nicely details that problem of "slow steaming" and parking far beyond the US border waiting for an official parking space inside US borders to open up.

On November 16th, 2021 the new system of queuing (and potential fines) was implemented, and in the shipping industry it's called PacMMS (Pacific Maritime Management Service) which is the name of the group that manages it all.

This basically served the purpose of pushing all the ships further out to sea to wait or to steam slower from Asia on their way here. The positives gained from PacMMS, as explained by the Marine Exchange, is increased safety in the waters off SoCal and increased air quality for the LA basin without so many megaships belching dieself fumes a few miles offshore for days at a time.

As you can see from this map and the graph above, the total number of ships waiting to get into the Port of LA or Long Beach hasn't changed much since mid November. But the locations where the ships are waiting somewhere in the Pacific Ocean have changed.

Marine Exchange of Southern California - Home

this is a homepage

mxsocal.org

 

[Nubs70]

So sorry, but these aren't "my" charts. They are publicly available charts released weekly by the non-profit Marine Exchange of Southern California, an industry trade group celebrating it's 100th anniversary next year that works to develop and promote the maritime cargo industry in Southern California. From their website explaining their mission...

"The Marine Exchange of Southern California is a ninety plus year old, non-profit organization dedicated to the development and efficient flow of maritime commerce throughout the region. Our records of ship arrivals and departures go back to 1923 in a string broken only by WW II. Since then, we have evolved into the Maritime Information Center for the Los Angeles - Long Beach Port Complex."

Here is their latest chart on the massive backlog released a few hours ago on the backup through February 4th...

View attachment 619339

Marine Exchange of Southern California - A History of the Marine Exchange

MXSocal site description

mxsocal.org

Seems like the 56 vessels at berth need to go up and a lower average time at berth. This will not get better anytime soon

 

[JoeCamel]

Seems like the 56 vessels at berth need to go up and a lower average time at berth. This will not get better anytime soon

Some of the containers needed to reload the ships are not available. They have to be gathered from far drop points and it slows the loading. Due to space constraints at the port from full containers not being shipped out on rail/truck yet the empties are in other places.

 

[TP2000]

An update since the last chart from the Marine Exchange of Southern California that I posted from February 4th. Two weeks ago there was 113 ships waiting in the backup without a berth, and as of February 18th there are 106 ships waiting in the backup without a berth.

As a reminder, this chart goes back in time to late 2019.

I have circled the old "2019 Normal" backup part of the graph from 2019 in red, and as a reminder there was a booming economy and very low unemployment at that time and yet the megaport of Long Beach & Los Angeles was able to keep up with minimal backups. Then Covid hit in late winter, 2020 and the backup grew and flatlined until the summer of 2021 when it grew wildly out of control. And that leads us to today's update....

Marine Exchange of Southern California - A History of the Marine Exchange

MXSocal site description

mxsocal.org

 

[The Mom]

Ship Backup Off Port of Charleston Swells to 30 Vessels

Officials at the South Carolina port, one of the largest import gateways on the East Coast, expect to clear the backlog by mid-April.

www.wsj.com

It's behind a paywall, but there were 19 Backed up last month. So, estimated time to clear the back-up is approx 30 days, as ships will keep arriving.

But other ports are ready to pick up the slack.

JAXPORT signs agreement with new terminal operator to increase ship traffic, create more jobs

Ceres Terminals CEO Craig Mygatt says he sees the TraPac container terminal as an opportunity to help alleviate some of the global supply-chain issues.

www.firstcoastnews.com

 

[Nubs70]

An update since the last chart from the Marine Exchange of Southern California that I posted from February 4th. Two weeks ago there was 113 ships waiting in the backup without a berth, and as of February 18th there are 106 ships waiting in the backup without a berth.

As a reminder, this chart goes back in time to late 2019.

I have circled the old "2019 Normal" backup part of the graph from 2019 in red, and as a reminder there was a booming economy and very low unemployment at that time and yet the megaport of Long Beach & Los Angeles was able to keep up with minimal backups. Then Covid hit in late winter, 2020 and the backup grew and flatlined until the summer of 2021 when it grew wildly out of control. And that leads us to today's update....

View attachment 622663

Marine Exchange of Southern California - A History of the Marine Exchange

MXSocal site description

mxsocal.org

Seems like we need more berth space.

Any published tracking of total North American berth space and % occupancy?

 

[JoeCamel]

An update since the last chart from the Marine Exchange of Southern California that I posted from February 4th. Two weeks ago there was 113 ships waiting in the backup without a berth, and as of February 18th there are 106 ships waiting in the backup without a berth.

As a reminder, this chart goes back in time to late 2019.

I have circled the old "2019 Normal" backup part of the graph from 2019 in red, and as a reminder there was a booming economy and very low unemployment at that time and yet the megaport of Long Beach & Los Angeles was able to keep up with minimal backups. Then Covid hit in late winter, 2020 and the backup grew and flatlined until the summer of 2021 when it grew wildly out of control. And that leads us to today's update....

View attachment 622663

Marine Exchange of Southern California - A History of the Marine Exchange

MXSocal site description

mxsocal.org

Looks like wait times at WDW. They went up and may fluctuate at that level but without more capacity the ships/guests keep coming so they really don't reduce.

 

[TikibirdLand]

Looks like wait times at WDW. They went up and may fluctuate at that level but without more capacity the ships/guests keep coming so they really don't reduce.

Wonder if TDO could sell som LL's for those ships. Think of the money they could make!

 

[JoeCamel]

This is not going to resolve this year unless we stop buying stuff

Supply chain whack-a-mole: West Coast eases, East Coast worsens

There are now more container ships waiting off East and Gulf Coast ports than there are off Los Angeles/Long Beach.

www.freightwaves.com

 

[Lilofan]

Which is why the Fed decided to not continue to fight against inflation. They hope that higher prices will help slow down consumption.
Or people can buy domestic goods that didn't come off of a boat.

When one looks at their decreasing value of their 401K, one may rethink on discretionary spending ( future vacation in FL?) and even necessity goods before purchasing due to what is happening in the stock market.

 

[TikibirdLand]

When one looks at their decreasing value of their 401K, one may rethink on discretionary spending ( future vacation in FL?) and even necessity goods before purchasing due to what is happening in the stock market.

Yeah, I was thinking of going on the Halcyon this summer. Instead, I'm going to my backyard, cook burgers on the grill and sit in my lawn chair. It'll be magical!

 

[Lilofan]

Yeah, I was thinking of going on the Halcyon this summer. Instead, I'm going to my backyard, cook burgers on the grill and sit in my lawn chair. It'll be magical!

Staycations are ok too, been there , we keep doing that .

 

[dreday3]

I can't believe how much the prices of groceries has gone up in such a short amount of time. We are doing "okay" financially and we are rethinking purchases, buy generic if we can or forgoing altogether.

This is really going to hurt Americans who are less fortunate than those of us on these boards.

And for us personally, having a cat with special diet needs, we are really in a bind. Royal Canin has now just stopped production temporarily on his food, we stocked up what we could (which is $80 a case) and are now trying to figure out what he can eat without having bad flare-ups.

Things suck right now.

And forget about gas prices...

 

[Nubs70]

It’s buying too much **** really the longterm issue here?

Handing out printed money so people can keep buying things without producing a good or service is the issue here.

We are seeing the beginning of the results from Modern Monetary Theory.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Handing out printed money so people can keep buying things without producing a good or service is the issue here.

We are seeing the beginning of the results from Modern Monetary Theory.

Those things are all in a “loop” aren’t they?

As are a focus on ridiculously short term gains by the suppliers.

 

[Nubs70]

Those things are all in a “loop” aren’t they?

As are a focus on ridiculously short term gains by the suppliers.

Suppliers are increasing prices due to raw material costs. I am a supplier of simple basic chemicals in making paper products. I have handed out 3 rounds of price increases since January 1 just to maintain the same net income dollars while letting my margins shrink. On average, I have increased prices 40% and my margins have been cut in half.

On the extreme, many dyes used to color paper contain lithium hydroxide. This raw material price has increased 300% since Jan 1 2022 due to..... LiON battery production. So both that nice yellow hamburger wrapper and your Tesla are going to get more expensive

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Suppliers are increasing prices due to raw material costs. I am a supplier of simple basic chemicals in making paper products. I have handed out 3 rounds of price increases since January 1 just to maintain the same net income dollars while letting my margins shrink. On average, I have increased prices 40% and my margins have been cut in half.

On the extreme, many dyes used to color paper contain lithium hydroxide. This raw material price has increased 300% since Jan 1 2022 due to..... LiON battery production. So both that nice yellow hamburger wrapper and your Tesla are going to get more expensive

Not that situation specifically…I’m not talking adjustments due to costs…I’m talking increases/cuts for quarterlies by the big fish.

 

[Nubs70]

Not that situation specifically…I’m not talking adjustments due to costs…I’m talking increases/cuts for quarterlies by the big fish.

Without looking at P/L statements, we do not exactly know. However, big fish are getting ahead of what they see coming, inflation etc..

Prices are increasing along the entire supply chain due to irespnsible governmental printing of money. This devalues the currency, lowers your purchasing power, and in turn devalues everyone's worth as a human being.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Without looking at P/L statements, we do not exactly know. However, big fish are getting ahead of what they see coming, inflation etc..

Prices are increasing along the entire supply chain due to irespnsible governmental printing of money. This devalues the currency, lowers your purchasing power, and in turn devalues everyone's worth as a human being.

So are we going back to the gold standard?

I think once we pass this econ 004 class and move on to Econ 304…we can come to common ground and accept that while everything you say is true…it is also being exploited for profits and patronage in the Halls of power in the politico economic complex.

I can think of one such notable “big fish”