If it doesn't start to make that turn by the 11PM update, the state is *expletives deleted*
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News Major Hurricane Dorian impacts to Walt Disney World 2019
- Thread starter monothingie
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If it doesn't start to make that turn by the 11PM update, the state is *expletives deleted*
Isn't it just supposed to stall for ~12 to 24 hours and then make the north turn?
LSLS
Well-Known Member
At least 20
Lensman
Well-Known Member
Levi at Tropical Tidbits has a great discussion of the possibilities for Dorian forecasts. In particular, his discussion of why the HWRF forecasts a landfall at Cape Canaveral. He briefly mentions how the HWRF model is different from the GFS and the ECMWF/IFS. He posits that this might be because the HWRF models the ocean upwelling better and thus forecasts a weaker storm, which ends up not extending as high into the atmosphere, and thus reacting to westerly prevailing lower level steering currents more than easterly prevailing high level steering currents. We will see, but if this ends up being significant, then the next effect we have to watch out for after the northerly turn late Monday into Tuesday is how much the storm weakens and thus whether it will track more west vs east. Because this is a model shortcoming of the GFS and ECMWF/IFS models, you wouldn't see this as a sudden shift in the model track but as a storm that weakens more than modeled and tracks further west with each GFS/ECMWF model run. This is speculation though so just keep watching the NWS/NHC forecasts. They have access to all the models and know their differences and shortcomings better than anyone.
www.tropicaltidbits.com
www.tropicaltidbits.com
Danger can happen. Prepare and stay safe.
Tropical Tidbits
Tropical weather and Atlantic hurricane information, analysis, and forecasts by Levi Cowan.
www.tropicaltidbits.com
Current Storm Information | Tropical Tidbits
The latest information on active storms in the Atlantic Ocean
www.tropicaltidbits.com
Danger can happen. Prepare and stay safe.
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Hoping you are correct
Levi at Tropical Tidbits has a great discussion of the possibilities for Dorian forecasts. In particular, his discussion of why the HWRF forecasts a landfall at Cape Canaveral. He briefly mentions how the HWRF model is different from the GFS and the ECMWF/IFS. He posits that this might be because the HWRF models the ocean upwelling better and thus forecasts a weaker storm, which ends up not extending as high into the atmosphere, and thus reacting to westerly prevailing lower level steering currents more than easterly prevailing high level steering currents.
Tropical Tidbits
Tropical weather and Atlantic hurricane information, analysis, and forecasts by Levi Cowan.Current Storm Information | Tropical Tidbits
The latest information on active storms in the Atlantic Ocean
Danger can happen. Prepare and stay safe.
Thanks, my friend, for posting this. Very informative.
BoarderPhreak
Well-Known Member
Even if it does turn up the coast, it won't be good... A recent update added:
"Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)."
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Lensman
Well-Known Member
I just watched the Tropical Tidbits video and Levi mentions that both the GFS and ECMWF/IFS model runs show forecast tracks that are only 50 miles off the coast of Florida from Palm Beach all the way north.
Also note the if there is an eyewall replacement cycle, the wind field will expand.
TWC said earlier today that the NHC track had the eye just 20 miles east of Ft. Pierce.
Not stating it will. That is why I said if. We will be able to tell either way by 2pm tomorrow. If it has not been pushed by then, I am in the school of thought the entire state will see Hurricane force winds. As said by others, even with the way jt may shift up most of the state will feel effects. Even the west coast will get tropical storm force winds and rain. 2pm has been said when the shift would need to happen.
I reccomend listening to Jim Farrell of Winktv Fort Myers. Realistic guy who has corrected NHC before and was right about Charlie when they disagreed.
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My husband's boat (rowing shell) will be parked in our living room.
You might need it.
BoarderPhreak
Well-Known Member
189mph winds currently in Freetown, Bahamas...
BoarderPhreak
Well-Known Member
Marsh Harbour on Abaco Island is basically destroyed; under water.
www.facebook.com
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“The place is a disaster, no business is operable and bodies are floating around Big Cat. The concern is nobody knows how many people died, and they feel when the water subsides some bodies will be washed out to sea.”
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“The place is a disaster, no business is operable and bodies are floating around Big Cat. The concern is nobody knows how many people died, and they feel when the water subsides some bodies will be washed out to sea.”
Levi at Tropical Tidbits has a great discussion of the possibilities for Dorian forecasts. In particular, his discussion of why the HWRF forecasts a landfall at Cape Canaveral. He briefly mentions how the HWRF model is different from the GFS and the ECMWF/IFS. He posits that this might be because the HWRF models the ocean upwelling better and thus forecasts a weaker storm, which ends up not extending as high into the atmosphere, and thus reacting to westerly prevailing lower level steering currents more than easterly prevailing high level steering currents. We will see, but if this ends up being significant, then the next effect we have to watch out for after the northerly turn late Monday into Tuesday is how much the storm weakens and thus whether it will track more west vs east. Because this is a model shortcoming of the GFS and ECMWF/IFS models, you wouldn't see this as a sudden shift in the model track but as a storm that weakens more than modeled and tracks further west with each GFS/ECMWF model run. This is speculation though so just keep watching the NWS/NHC forecasts. They have access to all the models and know their differences and shortcomings better than anyone.
Tropical Tidbits
Tropical weather and Atlantic hurricane information, analysis, and forecasts by Levi Cowan.Current Storm Information | Tropical Tidbits
The latest information on active storms in the Atlantic Ocean
Danger can happen. Prepare and stay safe.
I think it’s important to focus in on what NHC and trained meteorologists are forecasting for Dorian, not people on the internet or Facebook. Levi runs a great site, but I would take what the NHC puts out over anything he says. Levi is also not the only one talking about the HWRF, it is all over FB being pushed by pages and people more concerned with the clicks than accurately giving information.
The most informative guidance comes from the discussion NHC puts out with each advisory, while a lot is technical, much of is also accessible to the common person.
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Beacon Joe
Well-Known Member
WDW862
Well-Known Member
Note the position time indexes. The 11 and 5 AM/PM update’s time indexes reference 2 AM/PM local. The 8 and 2 AM/PM intermediary update’s time indexes reference 8AM/PM local. So the position will always be different.
But to answer your question the NHC positioning has been unchanged for multiple previous advisories, the cone of uncertainty however has expanded up the FL coast. Keep in mind also the storm can go a anywhere in the cone, it’s not locked in on the center.