MarvelCharacterNerd
Well-Known Member
If Epic costs that much, I look forward to seeing the final product.
(Figuratively speaking. I don't expect to ever go there. Universal parks don't have much for me to do.)
-
Welcome to the WDWMAGIC.COM Forums!
Please take a look around, and feel free to sign up and join the community.
'Lightyear' Coming Summer 2022
- Thread starter NateD1226
- Start date
(Figuratively speaking. I don't expect to ever go there. Universal parks don't have much for me to do.)
It's funny you think these large budgets are something new.That got me thinking... What is the 2022 list of movies from The Walt Disney Company that actually sold, or will sell, tickets to customers in theaters? Instead of just going Direct-To-Streaming for 8 bucks. (And there's a bunch of those!)
Here's the list of 2022 films headed to actual theaters from Walt Disney, Pixar, Disney Animation, Marvel, LucasFilm, 20th Century, Searchlight. Plus their production budgets and global box office sales thus far, in chronological order.
Death On The Nile, 20th Century: $90 Million Budget, $137 Million Box Office
Doctor Strange Multiverse of Madness, Marvel: $200 Million Budget, $954 Million Box Office
Bob's Burgers, 20th Century: $38 Million Budget, $34 Million Box Office
Lightyear, Pixar: $200 Million Budget, $205 Million Box Office
Thor: Love & Thunder, Marvel: $250 Million Budget, $329 Million Box Office (as of 7/12/22)
Brahmastra, Walt Disney Pictures: $43 Million Budget
See How They Run, Searchlight: $50 Million Budget
Banshees of Inisherin, Searchlight: $100 Million Budget
Amsterdam, 20th Century: $60 Million Budget
Wakanda Forever, Marvel: $250 Million Budget
The Menu, Searchlight: $75 Million Budget
Strange World, Walt Disney Animation: $150 Million Budget
Avatar 2, 20th Century: $250 Million Budget
Total 2022 Production Budget = $1.756 Billion
Triple The Production Budget = $5.268 Billion
Total Global Box Office Thru July 12th = $1.659 Billion
So, using @MisterPenguin 's basic formula of a studio needing to see triple the production budget to earn a profit, the Walt Disney Company's collection of flagship studios needs to make an additional $3.6 Billion in box office ticket sales over the next six months to break even for 2022.
Or, if you use a far more conservative estimate of double the box office to cover your costs, that's still $1.8 Billion in box office ticket sales needed over the next six months. Wakanda Forever and Avatar both need to be blockbusters going beyond the $750 Million global box office threshold this Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Home
www.boxofficemojo.com
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Those big, bloated budgets aren't new. But they appear to be increasingly unsustainable in the 2020's.
Surely you can't think both Burbank and Emeryville can keep spending upwards of $200 Million per picture, just to release them on Disney+ for eight bucks.
Sharon&Susan
Well-Known Member
Disney's solution if Elemental flops probably will be to put Pixar in sequel producing mode again. They're pretty consistent money makers.... unless if it's a Cars movie.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Its funny how you think its only Wakanda Forever and Avatar that is going to eat into that, lets call it $2B Box Office to split the difference. Especially when there was a Marvel movie just released that has the potential to bring in over $750M just on its own.That got me thinking... What is the 2022 list of movies from The Walt Disney Company that actually sold, or will sell, tickets to customers in theaters? Instead of just going Direct-To-Streaming for 8 bucks. (And there's a bunch of those!)
Here's the list of 2022 films headed to actual theaters from Walt Disney, Pixar, Disney Animation, Marvel, LucasFilm, 20th Century, Searchlight. Plus their production budgets and global box office sales thus far, in chronological order.
Death On The Nile, 20th Century: $90 Million Budget, $137 Million Box Office
Doctor Strange Multiverse of Madness, Marvel: $200 Million Budget, $954 Million Box Office
Bob's Burgers, 20th Century: $38 Million Budget, $34 Million Box Office
Lightyear, Pixar: $200 Million Budget, $205 Million Box Office
Thor: Love & Thunder, Marvel: $250 Million Budget, $329 Million Box Office (as of 7/12/22)
Brahmastra, Walt Disney Pictures: $43 Million Budget
See How They Run, Searchlight: $50 Million Budget
Banshees of Inisherin, Searchlight: $100 Million Budget
Amsterdam, 20th Century: $60 Million Budget
Wakanda Forever, Marvel: $250 Million Budget
The Menu, Searchlight: $75 Million Budget
Strange World, Walt Disney Animation: $150 Million Budget
Avatar 2, 20th Century: $250 Million Budget
Total 2022 Production Budget = $1.756 Billion
Triple The Production Budget = $5.268 Billion
Total Global Box Office Thru July 12th = $1.659 Billion
So, using @MisterPenguin 's basic formula of a studio needing to see triple the production budget to earn a profit, the Walt Disney Company's collection of flagship studios needs to make an additional $3.6 Billion in box office ticket sales over the next six months to break even for 2022.
Or, if you use a far more conservative estimate of double the box office to cover your costs, that's still $1.8 Billion in box office ticket sales needed over the next six months. Wakanda Forever and Avatar both need to be blockbusters going beyond the $750 Million global box office threshold this Thanksgiving and Christmas.
Home
From the slate I'm looking at, I think they can bring in enough to cover the costs of any loses from movies like Lightyear. Will the profit overall be razor thin, yeah but remember this is going to be the first full year for releases. Next year will likely be better, and the following year better after that. So unless the economy fully implodes, and I don't see a depression era event happening, TWDC's film divisions incuding Pixar will be just fine.
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
Recent Pixar Films have been huge boons to D+. That alone makes the silly notion of closing the studio down pointless. They want more content, not less.
I'm not excluding the immediate calculus, but Disney has long had a way of ringing out value from their movies decades after the fact. Presumably LightYear will go the same way. I actually saw it (and liked it) though.
I'm not excluding the immediate calculus, but Disney has long had a way of ringing out value from their movies decades after the fact. Presumably LightYear will go the same way. I actually saw it (and liked it) though.
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
They need to cut this movie off and send it to D+ ASAP. It's pathetic seeing TV ads for this dying/dead movie.
Ghost93
Well-Known Member
There may be some contractual obligation that it stays a theater exclusive for at least 45 days.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Maybe. Although this weekend it lost a few thousand theaters. Here is the box office stats I just found online for Friday, July 15th. Lightyear is suddenly down to 1,350 theaters and has fallen into oblivion at 10th Place. Far behind Thor, Minions, Top Gun, Elvis Presley, dinosaurs, angry paws, and something about singing crawdads. Also a woman who went to Paris.
Through this thread, I've found it really interesting to see how these various movies perform, and how a theater chain must have to juggle their theater capacity and timing to get the right customer mix and optimal ticket sales.
Jedijax719
Well-Known Member
Oh I am sure of it. This will go to D+ right at 45 days for sure. It's just kind of sad seeing them try to push it still.
Disney Irish
Premium Member
Dr Strange 2 is still playing in a few theaters even though its on D+. So I don't expect Lightyear to be fully pulled from all theaters even after it goes to D+. Disney will continue to have it played in as many theaters that will continue to play it for as long as possible.
BuddyThomas
Well-Known Member
You keep claiming that you are not absolutely giddy over this movie’s failure but you sure seem to be in total celebration mode and I really have no idea why……oh, wait…..I do. By the way, it’s probably going to get a nomination for Best Animated Film at the Oscars, although that movie about the shell with shoes will probably win.
Sharon&Susan
Well-Known Member
I don't think Marcel has any chance in winning. Word of mouth is good, but not good enough to change the typical Academy voter's preference for animation from the big studios particularly WDAS or Pixar. IMO, either Strange World or Turning Red will nab the Oscar with Lightyear getting a nomination.
Ghost93
Well-Known Member
Marcel is a live-action movie anyway (at least from what I've seen in the trailers).
If Strange World is a good movie and actually features a prominent gay romance, as mentioned, I think it would win the award (the Academy likes to reward films with progressive messages).
BuddyThomas
Well-Known Member
I dunno. Marcel is 100% positive on Rotten Tomatoes right now, with over 100 reviews. I didn’t love it, but it could definitely win a bunch of awards.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
I had no idea what everyone was talking about regarding Marcel, so I Googled. Apparently it's one of those art house movies?
The Oscars has seen its TV viewership, and thus its relevance in American culture, go off a ratings cliff the past decade. There's several reasons for that, but a big reason is they keep awarding stuff to movies hardly anyone has seen or heard about. Marcel seems to be the exact wrong direction to keep the Oscars going in, unless the Academy really does want to become entirely irrelevant to American culture and society.
Here's the latest box office numbers as of this evening for Marcel and others through this past weekend. Marcel is playing in 153 theaters nationwide, and has generated less than $2 Million in ticket sales.
BuddyThomas
Well-Known Member
Oh my God, do you just hate everything?I had no idea what everyone was talking about regarding Marcel, so I Googled. Apparently it's one of those art house movies?
The Oscars has seen its TV viewership, and thus its relevance in American culture, go off a ratings cliff the past decade. There's several reasons for that, but a big reason is they keep awarding stuff to movies hardly anyone has seen or heard about. Marcel seems to be the exact wrong direction to keep the Oscars going in, unless the Academy really does want to become entirely irrelevant to American culture and society.
Here's the latest box office numbers as of this evening for Marcel and others through this past weekend. Marcel is playing in 135 theaters nationwide, and has generated less than $2 Million in ticket sales.
View attachment 654165
TP2000
Well-Known Member
Well, no. I don't hate Lightyear, nor do I hate this Marcel movie. I haven't seen either movie, and have no plans to. So I can't like or dislike it.
I did just watch Desk Set last night on Amazon Prime though, now there's a great movie that I love!
But we are discussing financial performance of Disney products, or Disney competitors. In the case of this particular thread, we are talking about Lightyear and it's money-losing performance. And now the conversation has drifted to an art house movie about a shell named Marcel.
We can't pretend that recent Disney movies raked in huge box office cash, when they didn't. We must confront that financial reality and the hard facts that support that reality. The shareholders also demand that.
BuddyThomas
Well-Known Member
How many times do you intend to post the exact same……….never mind.Well, no. I don't hate Lightyear, nor do I hate this Marcel movie. I haven't seen either movie, and have no plans to. So I can't like or dislike it.
I did just watch Desk Set last night on Amazon Prime though, now there's a great movie that I love!
But we are discussing financial performance of Disney products, or Disney competitors. In the case of this particular thread, we are talking about Lightyear and it's money-losing performance. And now the conversation has drifted to an art house movie about a shell named Marcel.
We can't pretend that recent Disney movies raked in huge box office cash, when they didn't. We must confront that financial reality and the hard facts that support that reality. The shareholders also demand that.
TP2000
Well-Known Member
I think I plan to update the financial statistics on Lightyear in this thread until it finally moves to Disney+, perhaps by the first of the month. At that point we will know exactly how much Lightyear lost for Burbank.
Using it's incredibly (and suspiciously so) bloated budget of $200 Million and the "Triple The Box Office" costs that Mr. Penguin says a modern movie must make to break even, it appears Lightyear will have cost Burbank at least a few hundred million dollars.
But we won't know the specifics until Lightyear gets pulled permanently from theaters. As of this past weekend, it was still playing in 1,350 theaters. Which is roughly ten times as many theaters as Marcel was playing in.